This is so obvious, that it hardly bears mentioning nor deserves an article.
But it was my turn to write, and I am tired of pointing out Mets' flaws, so here goes:
What is the key difference between Tom Seaver and Jake deGrom? No longer the length of hair.
In one word - durability.
Tom Seaver started his career in 1967 and had his first long period of absence in 1980, for a month. So, for his first 13 years, he hardly missed any starts. Well, he didn't pitch for months each off-season, so I guess he wasn't always ready to pitch.
Jake, on the other hand, is like a Stradivarius violin. A world-class instrument, but extremely fragile.
Sadly, Jake is not nearly as reliable as Tom Seaver was, nor as Max Scherzer has been.
Reliability in a starting pitcher, especially in an ace, is so key. I hope very sincerely, as I’m sure we all do, that this injury medley that Jake is dealing with becomes a distant memory soon, and he has a long future period of healthy dominant pitching. It would be a darn shame to have someone who is clearly Hall of Fame caliber have his career fall short.
Also, he is up for a contract renegotiation possibility soon.
Unless he looks like he’s healthy, I don’t know how you can do that. They still owe him 2 big $$ years, plus a club option in 2024. I think if he wants to elsewhere after 2022, rather than earn $33 million in 2023, you have to let him walk.
Look at Dellin Betances. He was great for years. He got injured. Now he’s toast. Many pitchers as they age start to crumble. Look at the great Pedro Martinez.
It’s a sad but true thing, that mortality is.
All we can do is wish Jake a quick and sustained recovery and terrific future health of the baseball variety.
Elite ability AND durability is essential.
FRANCISCO ALVAREZ
I have had a pet peeve about how the Mets' top prospect, 19 year old Francisco Alvarez is really doing. We at Macks Mets kick around his progress and ETA, much of which is based on his season stats.
He exploded out of the gate briefly in Low A St Lucie and got promoted to High A Brooklyn a few weeks into the season.
His average has been a little low, so some as a result think he may need more development time than others think. I think he will be up by mid 2022 with the Mets.
First, he has just two more minor league levels to traverse (AA and AAA) before reaching the majors.
Second, as with Ronny Mauricio and Brett Baty, 2 other top 5 Mets prospects, playing games in Brooklyn suppressed their stats. All three hit substantially better on the road there than in Brooklyn - very much so, in fact. And, mind you, players most times hit better at home than on the road.
Thru August 10, Alvarez has hit as follows in Brooklyn vs. on the road:
ALVAREZ IN BROOKLYN
17 for 95 (.179), with 5 doubles, 6 HRs, and 18 RBIs.
ALVAREZ ON THE ROAD
29 for 94 (.309), with 7 doubles, 7 HRs and 23 RBIs.
I speculate that he also presses to over-compensate in Brooklyn, as in virtually the same number of road and home plate appearances, he has fanned 34 times in Brooklyn vs. 24 on the road.
Alvarez actually has done a lot better in Brooklyn than either Mauricio or Baty in terms of power. Mauricio and Baty hit with drastically more power on the road than in Brooklyn.
Mauricio in point of fact has hit .290 on the road with 11 HRs vs. .193 at home with 4 HRs, in the same number of at bats. He also, remarkably, has fanned 10 more times at home than on the road.
Anyway, to eliminate the negative Brooklyn adverse hitting effect on Alvarez, and get a better sense of how he'd be hitting in a normal offense home park, I will replace Alvarez's home stats with his road stats.
Thus, to arrive at an unbiased view of Alvarez in 2021, I will add 1) his St Lucie stats, 2) his road stats in High A, and 3) substitute his home stats in High A with his road stats.
Doing that, he would be 78 for 236 (.331), with 19 doubles, 16 HRs, and 58 RBIs. Stunningly good. Great in fact.
Looking at Alvarez that way, eliminate what I speculate is the profound Brooklyn dampening of hitters' offense, it seems totally appropriate to me to see him in Citifield in mid-2022.
Before I go, let's do it also for Mauricio. Two times his road stats equals 18 doubles, 6 triples, 22 HRs, and .290 in 310 at bats.
Are you looking at Mauricio differently now, too?
If you think this is just a fluke, Brooklyn as a team on the whole has hit drastically better at home than on the road in 2021. That park is a big hitting deterrent - it needs to be adjusted to get a view of Alvarez, and Mauricio, that is not myopic. I've just given that to you.
Thoughts?
18 comments:
Tom - Saw Alvarez have a lot of trouble with balls in dirt this weekend in Brooklyn. Think his bat may be 2022 ready but he still needs to work on his Catching skills. Where is Brian Schneider and why isn't he working every day with him?
I will next see Francisco in Poughkeepsie next week. I should be able to get an up close view. I will report on what I see.
I agree with John's assessment on this. The guy is a catcher and he needs to be defensively adequate. I'm looking forward to seeing him live, too. I like him for 2023 coupled with either McCann or Nido, take your pick. The DH will be huge for Alvarez. Having a catcher who can contribute offensively is a big advantage in today's baseball. But he needs to be able to handle the staff and not be a negative back there.
The Seaver/deGrom comps are pointless and silly. It's a different era.
Jimmy
Excellent analysis again, Tom. I made my annual pilgrimage to Brooklyn 5 days ago, and took a closer look at the stadium than I have in the past, thanks to your articles.
It's clear to anyone who sees it that it has a dampening effect on HRs, though it's less clear why it has the same on BA. I would think that the wide expanse that causes OFers to play deep would result in more gappers and shallow hits, but I would think wrong.
The numbers are clear. Years ago, St Lucie was the place where BAs and HRs died, but it seems that Brooklyn has surpassed it. Until this year, Brooklyn was the site of the short-season team near the bottom of the system. Players who survived there had a 1-year "breather" in Columbia/Savannah before running into the dimensions of Lucie, but now Lucie comes first, followed by Brooklyn. We can only wonder what the carryover will be as players move up to Bingo in years to come.
Will the old saying, "what doesn't kill you makes you stronger" prove true? It seems to have had that effect on Vientos (though he seems to be in the WPP currently), but time will tell.
Tom you didn't mention moving the fences in :) Lets remember this is the organization that had our AAA team in New Orleans then Vegas and now Syracuse so is the Brooklyn thing surprising.
This winter will be interesting because they didn't go all in at the trade deadline and only got Baez because he's friend's with Lindor which is scary to think and the immortal Rich Hill to appease the fan base. ZS put it all on the table so if we don't win the division it will probably be a very different team next spring.
Sorry one more thing I'm not immortal and I'm 74 so they need to get their act together soon.
Gary, you look great for your age LOL
We are all getting older. When the Mets won the WS when I was 32 in 1986, I NEVER would have thought that if I were still alive in 2021, there would be no more Mets crowns.
The cost of moving a minor league fence in might not be worth it - but should be considered for Brooklyn.
I did not deepen my analysis on Brooklyn vs. road hitting, to see for instance if the pitching in each game at home overall was done by better pitchers. I just assumed that evens out over time. But when one considers that, under normal circumstances, players tend to hit better at home than on the road, my calculations may understate their hitting potential/. What if the hitting conditions they collectively encounter on the road were exactly the same in Brooklyn? They'd probably hit better at home than on the road.
John, yours is a good point. My thought though, for Alvarez, is that there is no reason another 100 or so starts behind the plate in the minors between now and mid-2022 wouldn't bring his catching game up to average.
He seems a lot like Gary Sanchez as a hitter and catcher right now. Sanchez is bad on passed balls, great arm, and thunderous bat. If, God forbid, McCann and Nido got hurt, could Alvarez play in the majors right now? I think he could, not well, but probably.
Bill, good points, although Savannah was also not hitter friendly. Mack no doubt could attest to that.
With Alvarez, it sadly is hard to think about pushing him up, as there are two very solid catchers at AA in Senger (hitting nearly .300) and Meyer. Catchers in AAA aren't bad either. But I would sure like to see him out of Brooklyn.
Jimmy, yes and no. Don't think it is silly.
Jake is SO good, couldn't he generally pitch slower, cagier, change speeds more, a la Greg Maddux, and gas it up when he needs to. He is breaking down in so many fewer innings than Seaver and other great pitchers back in the day.
I just wonder if he could figure out a way to not be a hot rod running at the red line all the time. You.blow a rod in a car, you can rebuild it quick. In a body, the rebuild takes much longer. 101, 101, 101, 101....ouch.
I'd rather have Jake throwing at 95% of max and being out there every 5th day than 105% and constantly hurt. Him being hurt is doubly bad. We miss his routine excellence - and this team vitally relies on his availability. His absence is very damaging.
So many pitchers get hurt these days compared to years gone by. Mets are in the mid 30s in pitchers used this year. Used just 15 in 1969 and 15 in 1986. Those teams greatly benefitted from pitchers staying healthy. Somehow, they stayed healthy - not that they never got hurt - but it was far less.
Part of it has to be that each good pitcher is thinking of that next mega contract. So everything is max effort. max effort, hoping to avoid blow outs.
Jake's max effort is like that great beast of a running back who keeps slamming into the. defensive line and racking up yardage. Sooner or later, though, it catches up and the beast is gored.
Same thoughts I used to have about Juan Lagares - great OF, too many unnecessary spectacular defensive attempts in non-critical situations, too many long injuries.
I'm not sure, but I don't think we owned those teams or their stadiums, though we own both in Brooklyn.
I remember Sandy Koufax (yes, I AM that old) saying that he became very successful only after he took advice from John Roseboro, the catcher.
Sandy was throwing the ball as hard as he could, but Roseboro convinced him that 3/4 speed would make him even better. And it did, though he still had to retire at a young age. I wonder how many more years he'd have had if today's surgery was available then.
Bill I think it was Norm Sherry not Roseboro from what I heard.
Could be. If the suggestion was in Yiddish, it probably was Sherry. 🤣
Either way, it was a Dodgers Catcher.
Bill and Gary, I remember Bartolo as a Met throwing 87-88, and occasionally busting one at 93 and thinking, wow, where did that come from. He was very sturdy. Likely because he modulated and did not throw max much.
Look at the number of days of rest between Ohtani starts all year. That should be the model for Jake if he recovers without surgery. He can't pitch every 5th day any more.
Post a Comment