Paul Articulates – The long haul

After a pretty solid west coast road trip, the Mets find themselves in good standing in the NL East.  Their 14 wins are third best in the National League, and they have stayed close to the Atlanta Braves in the standings even though the Braves had an 8-game winning streak recently.  This has been done despite the fact that they are now missing 80% of their original starting rotation and their all-world closer.

Most Mets fans would say, “I expected that” and they are right but for different reasons.  On paper the Mets were expected to be a very competitive team and challenge for the division lead.  This wasn’t what was written on the paper though, as it would not have predicted the loss of pitching or weak starts for some of their hitters.  Their success to date can be attributed to their depth and a couple of hot streaks.  

The Mets are building depth in their MLB roster and their minors system to ensure the resiliency that is needed to keep talent on the field despite injury, suspension, and slumps.  This is a long process that takes investment in time and money to build infrastructure and recruit the talent.  It is a signature of successful ball clubs so it is worth the effort.  However, for a fan base that is starved for a championship the wait seems way too long.

So let’s explore what has gone on in April.  The Mets pitching staff is devastated by all sorts of unexpected things.  It was likely that there would be injuries because there always are, but not to this extent.  We also expected a little more down time with an aging staff, and this is why the rotation depth was a necessary thing.  So far the depth has held together with some very good starts by Megill, a few good starts by Peterson, and a remarkable start by Joey Lucchesi.  

All this has come at the cost of many more bullpen innings than imagined.  The fact that we got to April 22nd before a starter threw a pitch in the seventh inning is some pretty hard reality.  The fresh arms of spring are probably feeling more like mid-summer rather than late April.  If the Mets continue to use relievers for the first half of the year like they have in April, they are going to see some pretty bad innings cost them some winnable ball games.

The other thing that we saw in April were some super hot bats from Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso.  They are both great players and both are dedicated to their own self-improvement so we knew they would be really good this year.  However, they are not likely to continue this tear through the month of October.  A linear extrapolation would have Nimmo batting .368 and Pete hitting 73 HRs with 169 RBI.  It is a pretty safe bet that will not happen.  

They will have some cool periods where other players on the roster will have to pick up some of the burden to score.  There is enough talent in the lineup for that to happen – McNeil, Marte, and Canha have not yet played at the level they are capable of so if they are healthy they will have their moments.

The reason I lay all this out for you is to temper your emotions.   Mets fans as mentioned are so eager for a championship that they will over-react to any good news and any bad news.  The team, and each player will have their ups and downs because that is how baseball goes.  Despite a plethora of statistics describing every aspect of player and team performance, baseball cannot be predicted in the short term.  

In any given ballgame, a deviation of 1 degree in the angle of a batted ball, or a deviation of ½ inch in the center of contact of bat and ball can mean the difference between hit and out.  So anything can, and does happen.  

When David Peterson has a rough outing against the Giants on Saturday, don’t buy him a ticket to Syracuse.  Hand him the ball in five days and give it a shot.  Save the agony for things like 2022’s Escobar and Ruf slumps – those were issues that pointed to long term trends that needed adjustment.

How are the Mets positioned for the long haul?  What can we glean from the first 20 or so ball games?  I would say that their depth is paying off, allowing them to win in spite of adversity.  I think that some of the issues they dealt with such as the Narvaez injury and the slow start for Eduardo Escobar provided opportunity to gradually work two of the young prospects into the lineup.   

Baty and Alvarez are paying their dues right now, struggling through the adjustment to the MLB talent level, and it will pay off by mid-season.    If the rest of the team continues to win, they can continue to get their reps without the extreme pressure to help carry the team.  The overuse of the bullpen is probably the most alarming issue with the long term, as wear & tear on relievers’ arms is a cumulative effect that surfaces down the road.  

The team may end up shopping for another starting pitcher around the all-star break if we don’t see some of the core physically and mentally healthy soon.

Sit back and enjoy this ride, Mets fans – you knew this was a roller coaster when you got on.  There will be some thrilling moments you won’t want to miss!