We were anxiously awaiting the results from Tuesday’s MLB draft lottery, and now we have them. And it makes us even more anxious. With a 2.0% chance of getting the number one pick, the Cleveland Guardians drew the lucky straw. With a 4.3% chance (twice as good), the New York Mets drew a 9th pick, but since it was outside the top 6, they were then assessed a 10 spot penalty for exceeding the second tier competitive balance tax threshold with their 2023 team salary and are now picking 19th. That’s right – despite a highly unsuccessful 2023 season, the Mets will pick behind two thirds of the other MLB teams in the July 2024 draft. Keep in mind that there were 18 teams that did not make the playoffs last year and the Mets pick 19th. Ouch!
Here is the draft order as determined by the lottery draw with exclusions and penalties included. The Nationals were excluded because they won last year’s #1 pick and you can’t win two in a row, and the Mets, Yankees, and Padres received 10-spot penalties for their competitive balance excesses last year.
Okay, that seems like really bad news but it is really just bad luck. As you well know, the most accomplished players MLB are not always the ones that are drafted first. Sometimes there is a diamond in the rough that is chosen after many rounds who then becomes a star; other times players selected in the top of the draft flame out and never amount to anything. A great scouting organization will identify lots of talent throughout the hundreds of players available. A great player development organization will turn a good prospect into a great prospect. The Mets are improving on both fronts, and certainly have opportunities to select some solid talent.
Now that the draft order has been established, the Mets’ scouts and front office leaders will go through the process of identifying their list of desired candidates, assessing who will be available for that 19th pick, and formulating their contingency plans. None of this will affect the 2024 or 2025 seasons, as even the most talented draft selections will need years of seasoning to become MLB-ready. There are also several other methods of player acquisition such as international player signing, trades, and free-agent signings. Some of those are the topics of many discussions going on this week between the team executives at the Nashville winter meetings.
Our team here at Mack’s Mets will be providing plenty of commentary over the next seven months on the available prospects and our take on the players that should be prioritized in the draft. So keep reading!
18 comments:
and where do we pick in subsequent rounds? 7th? 8th? 19th?
It would be an excellent study to see, since 2000, how the stars, etc. cam out of each draft spot…1-1, 1-2, 1-3, etc. My guess is there is a deep downward slope from 1-1 onwards.
Hopefully we get lucky today.
19th. Ugh.
nickel - I read yesterday that all rounds after Round 1 are selected in reverse order of prior year standings.
Tom, sometime between now and the end of January, I will do some research and write up a piece on the draft and how it correlates to future performance.
As a matter of interest, Mike Trout was the 25th overall selection in the 2009 Amateur draft, or 6 slots below the Mets 2024 pick.
R69, that makes sense on later rounds. That would be a super penalty if it extended beyond round 1.
Sounds good on that analysis.
Trout would have been available to the Mets that year, as I recall, but they traded the first round pick. That said, they likely would have passed on him.
Should the Mets take a look (1 Yr leap of faith on a minor league contract) on RPs Alex Reyes and Drew Pomeranz? When healthy, these two might be quite effective. Reyes, if you recall was one of the top pitching prospects (in the Cardinals organization) about 5 years ago. He has recovered from an shoulder surgery. He used to throw over 100mph.
Pomeranz (a lefty) was one of the most effective middle men RPs in the Padres organization 3 years ago. He is also recovering from elbow issues. He may not be ready until midseason.
However, a flyer on either or both of these RPs might be a good investment (especially for 2025).
A few things...
1. The 1.19 pick is better than 1.32 ?
2. If the Mets didn tank last season they probably would have been a wild card team and this pick would be lower than 1.19
3. It's a lottery. How many big lottery tickets have you won?
Spot on again, Mack!
Agree. As I said, it is just bad luck. If a successful season relied on just luck, then Washington would have won the 2023 World Series. The winners are the ones that are the smartest, hardest working, most strategic, and also have a little of the good 'ol luck too.
First 5-6 picks usually make it and I’m guessing half 0f them make it big. A top ten pick is big.
Are you sure, Tom? As far as I know, trading draft picks isn't legal in baseball.
Looking forward to this Rule 5 Draft. Might pick up one or even two players who can help. Talk about low risk.
Lou, good point. Let’s see what they do.
Guys, I don’t like what I’m seeing. They are going about as cheap as Alderson was going. If the plan is to get under the cap as soon as possible and stop taking penalties, then why waste a year of Alonso? I’m thinking once Ohtani signs and Soto is moved, Alonso will have lots of appeal. It just is looking that way.
After all the QO picks are awarded in between the 1st and 2nd round we’ll probably pick 50th. The MLB Draft Lottery is a disaster. It should be for the 4 worst teams and the rest of the draft should stay in order of season record. The 1st team can only drop 3 spots and the 4th team can only jump 3. The Guardians should no way have the #1 pick.
I just hate all the draft pool money we lose picking 19th instead of getting lucky and picking 5th or 6th. The Guardians should have the best if not a very good Draft with their large pool money and they shouldn’t because they weren’t one of the worst teams. The Draft was supposed to stop teams from tanking but this year it didn’t reward one of the worst teams.
They lost their pick fir signing krod
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