(WAIT! BREAKING NEWS! Mets signed Rylan Bannon to a minor league contract. He will be invited to big league camp in spring training. He is no relation to Rhylan Thomas.)
Might Rylan help us get Yamamoto? I saw this, in which it says the following about a Japanese tattoo of “RYLAN”:
“This hand-lettered design by Master Takase is the name Rylan written vertically in katakana surrounded by the kanjifor Soul Mate and includes a small red seal for Eternity. This design declares Rylan to be one's soul mate for all eternity. This design is 2.6 inches wide x 5.5 inches high (6.5 cm x 14.1 cm) and may be easily resized by your tattoo artist.”
On to today's missive:
In today’s game, we certainly get Pete Alonso types - prodigious power, tempered by low batting averages.
The Mets have two minor leaguers who are very different from that model…
Rhylan Thomas and JT Schwartz.
They often say you get a good sense of a guy when he plays a full season with about 550 at bats.
These two guys - combined - had 546 ABs in 2023…close enough to 550 ABs.
Combined in 2023, they averaged .318, 33 doubles, 4 triples, (just) 7 HRs, .400 OBP, and just 77 Ks vs. 86 walks.
Pretty excellent, if one player did that, except for too few at bats for each player, and their dearth of long ball power.
Their 78 RBIs were muted by the fact that Thomas, who hit .328/.407/.425, was often relegated to the 9th spot in the batting order. Closer to the middle of the line up for Thomas, and perhaps the duo would have approached 100 RBIs.
(P.S. at the same age, Jeff McNeil also played at A/AA, and hit “just” .309/.369/.377, so Rhylan did much better).
What makes them even more intriguing to this writer is that their hitting later in the season was demonstrably better than their average.
Thomas hit just 10 for 43 in April, but a screaming .345 thereafter.
And in August and September, Schwartz hit .341.
Wow?? Yeah, go ahead, you can utter it. Wow.
Both flashed fine Corinthian leather, too.
Power can be augmented, at least to a degree.
So…two guys that get little real chatter about their MLB futures…ought to be getting lots of "MLB in their future" chatter?
I think so.
I am not, however, jumping past how they both might play in 2024.
They both have to continue to shine and grow next year. 2023 was too short for both to prove a whole lot.
You haven’t really done anything until management is so sold on you that you find yourself landing at LaGuardia on your way to the player’s clubhouse at Citifield.
Last I checked, neither player was in the list of MLB Top 100 prospects.
And…
Major league pitchers are an order of magnitude tougher than AA chuckers.
Heck, former Mets first rounder Gavin Cecchini one year, in AAA Las Vegas, hit .325/.390/.448. And .317/.377/.442 in AA the year before.
It earned Cecchini only 83 MLB at bats. One thing he lacked, fellas?
Power.
A word to the wise…power helps. Boost your power.
Ask $$$$hohei Boom Boom Ohtani.
Taylor Kohlwey, recently acquired at age 29, has been a very solid minor leaguer. But his 46 HRs in 2786 career minors PAs simply are not enough. Pete Alonso, in contrast, hit 46 HRs in 2018 alone, in the minors and Arizona Fall Ball. He will be a mega millionaire fairly soon, due to power.
Anyway - I’m mad at JT Schwartz.
Can I say that? Why would I?
He missed so much time in 2023, that’s why, so it is hard to project him.
Just 379 PAs in 2023, including his 83 in Az. “Just 455” in 2022. That’s 834 PAs in 2 seasons, a mere 600 fewer PAs than Ronny Mauricio over the same period.
A full 2023 season played, instead, and maybe we’d be thinking “hey, this guy is the next Keith or Olerud?” Instead of speculating based on limited data.
The limited data during the season, and through his Arizona Fall games, tell me:
a) RBIs? 64 minors and fall RBIs in 360 at bats, a strong pace.
b) 71 for 213 (.333) from July 1 to October 21…That’s a lengthy stretch of solid hitting.
c) Power #s (doubles, and to a lesser extent HRs) ramped up.
I would have loved to see him (and Rhylan Thomas) with 550+ plate appearances in 2024, to get a better sense of whether he is a soon-coming MLB star caliber hitter, or not.
So I’m mad. Don’t miss any more games in 2024, JT.
Or Rhylan Thomas, too. Play them ALL.
Thomas is listed at 5’10”, 170, and turns 24 in April.
JT turns 24 on December 17 of this month. Happy birthday.
Given their advancing baseball age, they need to make 2024, for them, a year like Pete and Jeff had in the minors in 2018…that is, prodigious.
Make me happy here, guys. I don’t ask for much.
How to make me happy?
Incremental 2024 improvements in quality.
And monumental 2024 improvements in power.
Thanks.
SALARY OVERHANG:
Despite dumping part of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer salaries in 2023 when traded, the 2024 season will have Mets-retained salary obligations for those two players and the traded James McCann of roughly $50 million in 2024. All of it should be over the luxury tax, meaning more like $100 million out of the coffers related to the trio of ex-Mets.
And nearly $18 million more in 2025 for Verlander. Likely double that, too, due to the luxury tax.
That’s some hangover.
Aaron Judge’s salary for 2024, in contrast, is “just” $40 million…
If the Mets didn’t owe JV, MS, and JM $50 million in 2024, they could have paid $40 million of it to Aaron Judge for 2024, and pocketed $10 million (plus $10 million more saved in lux tax.)
Pass the Excedrin.
But, be of good cheer…
The $23+ million of post-Mets salary obligations paid in 2023 to Robby Cano and Darin Ruf ended any obligations when the 2023 season did. The Mets owe those two zeros nothing in 2024.
Gosh darn, the New York Mets sure can waste money.
26 comments:
Rylan, Rhylan, let’s get thrillin’.
When Alonso was in the minors, I read an interview and stated he wants to win every single at bat… does he still feel that way? Batting closer to .200 than .300 is not trying to win every single at bat.
As for Schwartz, while I like Thomas it’s due to his positional flexibility. Schwartz needs to learn to hit for power for his position. His AFL showing after the season was not promising. Aside for one hot week where he hit .380, he wasn’t able to be consistently successful. He can be, but needs work. Maybe winter ball may help, I don’t know.
I wondered why Thomas stayed in the #9 spot all year. You’re a manager and filling out your lineup card. There’s this kid hitting .300, wouldn’t you look to move him up, maybe #2?
Re: Alonso
*he stated that he wants to win every single at bat.
You want to talk about salary overhang? Start with reading the article in MLBTR concerning Ohtani’s contract. It’s pure genius! He makes $50MM in endorsements, so he doesn’t need the money; he just wants to win. So, he accepts $2MM per year for ten years right now, that’s it! The Dodgers save $68MM per year in real money. They can invest that in other players. Ohtani will then retire after this deal and move back to Japan and for the next ten years will collect $68MM a year in deferred salary that is not taxed by the huge tax laws of California. While the present value of the deal is $46MM a year and that the CBT value the Dodgers will have on their payroll, it isn’t the albatross it appeared to be!
I think Bannon hit 18 home runs last year at AAA
Mauricio's MRI should come back today
Gosh,neither guy is a top ten prospect for the Mets.How good is this pipeline?
I'm not as high on it as many others
I see a huge drop off past the top 10
Gus, brilliant indeed.
Why is Mauricio trying to steal bases any longer in games that don’t count? Winter ball games DON’T COUNT, RONNY!
Anonymous, check back on them in a year.
Anonymous, before 2018, Jeff McNeil was never a top 10 Mets prospect. He’s done pretty well since.
Re-read my statistical comparison of Jeff and Rhylan at the same age. Rhylan’s numbers much BETTER.
It is difficult to turn a high average hitter into a power hitter. Look at the Jeff McNeil experiment in 2021 - he learned to hit for more power and immediately his batting average plunged. JT Schwartz is similar (though he hits to the gaps with more power), and in the beginning of the AFL season, JT started slugging. Then he started slumping. Corrected it at the tail end, but his AFL stats were not as good as they should have been. I say, let the guy hit doubles and drive in runs.
Paul, I would counter with JT and Rhylan not (at least yet) changing their approach, but instead changing their musculature. I’d like to see JT add 20 pounds of muscle, Rhylan 15 pounds.
Strength can increase quickly. When I started college, I was a fast, high-jumping 135 pound 17 year old. When school started, my friend and I hit the universal weight machine. I benched 100 pounds in early Sept.
3 months, and 18 pounds, later I was 153 pounds and was benching 220, up 120 pounds on the bench in 14 weeks. I clearly was, and felt, a lot stronger.
I see no reason these two guys can’t do the same.
Paul, I disagree. Ted Williams said the hardest skill to learn was hitting for power. Look at Daniel Murphy; look at Brandon Nimmo last year; Nimmo is on record saying that he worked hard on learning to lift and pull the ball better. That is the most heart warming thing I can hear. Rare is the player that tries to improve in the majors. MCNeil should have learned, and Schwartz can learn. It’s not easy, but it can be done and for a guy that has a good average already, he doesn’t need to become Alonso, just be mid-20’s every year with a good average and you’ll eat well. Very well.
I’ve been high on Rhylan Thomas. Very strong hit, BB to K ratio, and glove. If he gains any muscle, even for 15-20 HR Power, he’s a bonafide starter. I think JT needs the Power more than Rhylan does. Rhylan’s floor is 3rd or 4th OF. If JT has no Power his floor is back up 1B/part time DH/PH.
Hey Tom, I was a high jumper in high school too! I got good enough to clear a bar that was an inch above my head. But now it looks like I am in over my head on the power argument on Schwartz. The readers have spoken! JT, start the carnivore diet tomorrow and get muscled up! There are only 74 days left before the first Mets spring training game.
Think Ryan Cliffird or Drew Gilbert here
You go, Paul…Paul was a dunker. I was only able to dunk donuts…and my balled-up shirt.
It is simple….JT and Rhylan add power - or they will be marginal in today’s major league game. If I am them…GYM RAT! Come to camp looking like Starling Marte.
Mack, Gilbert as I see it has the all around skills with power - a goodie.
Clifford could be Alonso II if he can keep his Ks under reasonable control. Big bopper who fans a lot more than JT, and a whole lot more than Rhylan. In Brooklyn,
In Brooklyn, Clifford fanned 51 times in 135 PAs. Rhylan just 10 times in 145 PAs. Stunning difference.
But compare slugging percentage and OPS
Mack,
Being reported that Mauricio has a torn ACL and will need surgery.
Yeah
Perils of winter ball
My guess Baty opens up at third, Jeff at second, Turner is signed to back them up and Mets go bigger time than Taylor in the outfirld
Looking Forward to 2024 Points
1. Not certain on the severity of Ronnie Mauricio's ACL tear. Was a typical athlete's injury really. Does not always have to be operated on. My point here is that Ronnie "could be back here" by maybe not too long after the All Star Break possibly. He is getting the injury surgically repaired now, so that "should speed up" his overall recovery time and progress.
2. I think third base will come down to Brett Baty and Mark Vientos vying for. Whomever shows the best in ST. Both have very impressive skill sets. It's just a matter of them getting "locked in here" with the Mets. They both could.
3. If the Mets can sign SP Yamamoto, that should put them in a pretty sound overall rotation mode for 2024. The thing to be careful with here, is not to be stuffing the rotation with arm injury recovery type starters. Starters like Quintana and Severino (mainly here) are plenty enough. Too many, make for a "guaranteed seasonal train-wreck" more often than not. And do not overestimate the younger starters (down at AAA) for here by season end, automatically. It's a major jump to here for any kid pitcher to make.
My advisable rotation for 2024 might be this actually...Yamamoto, Senga, Severino (providing he has a solid and convincing 2024 ST), Megill, and a kid pitcher people should be talking about a lot more here...young lefty Nathan Lavender. The five should be between Lavender and Lucchesi.
Some might say, "Nathan Lavender is a reliever and not a starter stupid!" Yes, true within the Mets MiLB system it's been so. But Nate is young and has been a starter as well prior. He has a strong and dynamic arm with many strikeouts under his belt. The Mets really do need more good lefty starters for rotation balance. Asa result, I would bring Nate in early to ST, and see if he can easily make this adjustment (getting stretched out) for this role. I'd bet he can. It could be a very awesome type of move to make for Nate and this NY Mets parent club. Remember, ninety-five percent of this franchises' very best MiLB starters are still one to two seasons away from being here.
I would probably have Jose Quintana in long-relief to start 2024. See how his arm does there. Then if he does well and feels great, have him ready if case may be with other starters having injuries ahead of him. It's a long season and Mets fans know.
4. The Mauricio ACL tear puts Jeff McNeil back on second base, which is more than fine by me. I like Jeff's hustle factor that he brings, his intensity. I don't think that his 2022 successes here were in anyway a fluke. Third base should not be a problem either (as I mentioned above with Baty and Vientos vying in ST), nor shortstop with the injury repaired All Star Francisco Lindor back to 100%. But with McNeil and Lindor back 100% again, the middle infield is very set for 2024.
5. If I could add in one reliever more here to the bullpen mix, it might be Josh Hader. But every team seems to be after him now. Sign and trade for him maybe? Not certain.
6. The outfield should between Stewart, Nimmo, Marte, and perhaps Suozzi. Maybe a late off season trade?
My ST invites might include:
1. Lavender 2. de Oca 3. Vasil (for experience) 4. Nido 5. Iglesias 6. Suozzi
Some utilty players might be:
Cortes, Iglesias, and Antonia, Narvaez, or Nido for the backup catcher position for now. Maybe trade one or two of these, since only one backup is really necessary.
Mauricio injury shows again that this team is under some sort of curse. Hundreds of winter ball players - the Met gets the bizarre injury. Not even on a contact play.
Pitchers all over baseball, and Peterson is the one who needs hip surgery that will cost him multiple months.
Very deflating to root for this club.
Sam Dykstra wrote that JT Schwartz said this in the Fall League in October:
"A lot of first basemen are more of that traditional power hitter. I don't really see myself as being that traditional power hitter, but hopefully, the power does come and keeps coming. Whatever happens happens. Just trying to do my thing."
If I were JT, I’d get stronger. The power will come quicker. And power in the majors really matters. Kyle Schwarber hit .207 in 2022-23, but played 315 games and hit 93 homers, which is in big part why he played in 315 games. Schwarber is STRONG.
JT, the goal is to make the majors and make a lot of $$. Power is essential. MAKE it happen.
Dos Things
Uno - Nathan Lavender to starter? Seriously. Do you fans remember a reliever here named Nolan Ryan? Came up a reliever who hit three concession stand vendors up in the green mezzanine seats at Shea. Fortunately none were killed, and the worst damage of it was dropped concessions on fans that these vendors had to pay for. Laugh at me if you want, but when you get a guy (and a lefty especially) with Nathan's arm abilities and strength you think big. The Mets will have plenty of new young starters here come ST 2025/26. But Nathan is here now, and to my eye looks ready for this challenge this ST. The only other lefty here is Quintana and to me he will have to prove his arm is truly healthy and ready come 2024 ST. In other words, he and Severino are not yet a 100% certainty promise of health quite yet. They are wait and see really.
Dos - Jarred Kelenic could have been a nice addition here for 2024. But I might anyway add into this '24 roster equation now, maybe one more young OF do go with Suozzi at ST for insurance. They don't have an AAA OF that is a certain longer term Met addition, even as the fourth guy. So they need to go outside and get one more OF who could conceivably make the roster this season out of ST.
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