Tom Brennan - 2023 Spring Training Mets Performances: True or False Indicators?

BEFORE TODAY’S MAIN ARTICLE TOPIC…

So far, it seems the Mets’ attractiveness to top flight free agents who are not middle-aged is low.

The Dodgers, Yankees, and Braves have that swagger and reputation of success. Texas and Baltimore seem to be emerging juggernauts. The Mets are floundering in choppy waters, attempting to grasp free agent life preservers. Yamamoto? Why wouldn’t he sign with the extremely well-run Dodgers, rather than the risky Mets?  Besides, Yamamoto is closer to home on the west coast and would play in better weather in L.A.

Lee just signed with San Francisco, likely in part because he too is closer to travel home to South Korea (or to have family and friends come visit him).

I as a Mets fan do NOT feel good about this off-season.

NOW ON TO THE MAIN TOPIC DU JOUR:

I reflect back, as many of us tend to do after a losing Mets' season, about many aspects.  What caused this, how could that have been different, etc.

One aspect for me to think on was "what signals did players give off in 2023 spring training, and were they false signals or tellingly real signals?"

One such fella who was giving off real signals was DJ Stewart.  In spring training, DJ went .370/.528/.667 with 11 RBIs in 27 at bats.  Seems pretty darned outstanding to me.  

When he finally got called up, finally, when the season had finally tanked, he produced well then, too, until injury slowed him late in the season.

“Gonna write a little letter, gonna mail it to my local DJ.”

Daniel Vogelbach was .205/.233/.256 this pre-season, and one of his 2 runs scored was via a HR, which indicated that a slow season start with few runs scored was the likely unfolding scenario.  That in fact proved to be the case.  The only thing slower than Daniel was his season start. I wonder what would have happened if he was sent down in late March after an crappy Grapefruit spring and the Mets instead brought DJ Stewart north with the team? He’s gone now.

Mark Vientos had the most at bats (54) of anyone in camp and hit .275 with 11 RBIs, but he fanned 21 times vs. just 3 walks, and his 2 HRs accounted for 2 of his 3 runs scored.  It was a decent spring, with flaws, which resurfaced in his struggles during the regular season, during which his walk to K ratio remained poor, and 9 of his 19 runs came via HR. 

2024 is a key career year for Vientos. He must do much better.

Brett Baty had a very promising solid spring (.325/.460/.425), but that turned out to be a bit of a mirage as he hit well in a solid April, but lousily thereafter. Just .167/.216/.278 in a miserable second half.

Ronny Mauricio slammed 4 HRs in 33 Florida at bats, and then lit AAA on fire in April and May, having Mets fans clamoring for him to be promoted. But then came a bad July and August in AAA, which delayed his Mets arrival until late in the season, when is bat showed some promise for 2024. His glove remains a Dick Stuart special until fixed. 

Of course, R Mo got hurt badly this week - torn ACL - he’s a Met, after all. See you in 2025, R Mo? Too bad the Mets didn’t trade him pre-damage 2 weeks ago.

Maybe a door opens early for Luisangel Acuna. More likely, Vientos and Baty get tons of at bats. And/or we see Justin Turner or some other aging free agent who will experience immediate, age-related decline once he dons a Mets uniform. Because that seems to always happen to aging acquisitions by the Metsies, except in the case of Big Sexy.

Jose Peraza was vying for a back up role and hit .300 in 40 ABs with just 3 Ks. That got him nowhere in 2023 with the Mets. Zero MLB ABs. 

The veteran hit a punchless .258 in the minors in 2023, which seems career-ending. If he was any good, he could step in for Mauricio, but he won’t.

Francisco Alvarez was bad, with a homerless 3 for 28 in spring training, while spring training terror Tomas Nido hit .358 with 3 HRs in 39 ABs and Omar Narvaez hit .304.  Those spring numbers had absolutely no correlation to Alvarez's breakout (if uneven) rookie season and Nido’s and Omar's abject failures during the regular season.  

Kevin Parada meanwhile went 1 for 6 with a walk as a bit of a "welcome to camp" after the first rounder had just limited play time in the minors in his 2022 pro debut season.  He most likely will get a lot more ABs next spring.  May he turn heads.

Tommy Pham was 7 for 45 in the spring and started the season glacially cold, At 35, I thought he was washed up, but I was wrong - his internal fire and grinding work ethic turned it around for him as the season got warmer. The World Series was his reward.

Darin Ruf, to the surprise of no one with any common sense, was just 5 for 30, as his crumbling career circled the bowl.

Tim Locastro had 45 spring ABs and hit .289/.395/.511 with 6 of 6 in steals, but his history as a fast, but poor, hitter would not change solely due to a solid spring. He hit .232 in 52 at bats. Not terrible.  I want someone better in 2024.

Luis Guillorme: His .324/.432/.432 spring had us feeling really good about him, before his poor 2023 season ensued. Nine RBIs, .224 in a little over 100 MLB at bats. Zero steals. Zero impact. Dropped from the 40 man.

Eduardo Escobar had a 4 for 34 spring, a clear sign that Father Time was catching up with his game. He hit .226 with 6 HRs in 288 at bats, after driving in 118 runs in 2019. Age is a butt kicker.

Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor had strong springs, while Jeff McNeil's slow spring portended a slow first half, as much as we did not expect the 2022 batting champ’s slow spring to be indicative. It was.

Brandon Nimmo was just 2 for 14 due to injury, but he shook that off with a strong season. Let’s Go Brandon.

Pitchers?  

Three hurlers of spring training note to me...

David Peterson went 12 innings, 1 hit, no runs, walked 8, fanned 13 - exciting - but a poor first half, which seemed baffling…my guess is he needs to toughen up mentally. He fans a ton of guys (254 in 217 innings in the majors in 2022 and 2023), but the whole is less than the sum of the parts with him until proven otherwise. What would he be like with Cole Hamels' brain in his head, or Jerry Koosman's?   He might be far more successful.  He is 28 in 2024. Time to put up, or continue to falter. Once he gets over his hip surgery, that is.

Tylor Megill? Wild. His 13 walks in 17 spring training innings indicated something was wrong, and he was wrong for most of 2023, until finishing strong. What will 2024 bring? I won’t even make a wild guess.

Nate Lavender pitched 4 hitless spring training innings, walking 5 and fanning 5. He followed that with a great, high K relief year at Syracuse in 2023, when so many other Syracuse pitchers struggled.  Hopefully his 2024 spring training is similarly effective but more expansive innings-wise, leading to his addition to the opening day roster or, if not, many quality Mets innings later in 2024.

That’s all I have to say about that. 

When is spring getting here? I’m hoping for meaningful April baseball.

Wouldn’t it be nice if the Mets’ Mauricio and Peterson injuries fulfilled their injury quotas for 2024?

I likely will be unavailable to comment today, so have at it.

SOME METS HITTERS WOULDN’T MIND PRODUCING THESE NUMBERS:

35 HRs, 189 RBIs, career, despite missing over 3 years in World War II service from 1942 through early 1946.

That’s Warren Spahn, fellas. Kirk Nieuwenhuis only compiled 31 and 117. Add in Matt den Dekker’s 7 HRs and 30 RBIs to Kirk’s, and you’ve got 38 and 147, still well short of Spahnie. And neither of them missed 3 1/2 years.

Loved reading this about the Mets’ greatest ever 4-12 pitcher:

Spahn reached the major leagues in 1942  at the age of 20. He clashed with Braves manager Casey Stengel, who sent him back to the minors after Spahn refused to throw at Pee Wee Reese in an exhibition game. Spahn had pitched in only 4 games, allowing 15 runs (10 earned) in 15.2 innings.

Stengel later said that it was the worst managing mistake he had ever made: "I said "no guts" to a kid who went on to become a war hero and one of the greatest lefthanded pitchers you ever saw. You can't say I don't miss 'em when I miss 'em". 

The 1942 Braves finished next to last, and Stengel was fired the following year. 

Spahn was reunited with his first manager 23 years later, for the even more woeful last-place New York Mets, and — referring to Stengel's success with the 1949–60 Yankees - later quipped, "I'm probably the only guy who played for Casey before and after he was a genius."

Spahn finished the 1942 season with a 17–12 record in Class A.

YET ANOTHER MINOR LEAGUE CONTRACT

Trayce Thompson, 33, hit .163 last year, is a .212 career hitter, and a K machine.  A righty bat who has hit slightly over .220 vs. righties, under .200 vs. lefties, in his career.  Yawn.