Tom Brennan: Bad Ronny Mo Uodate; Mets’ 2019 Draft; & Marte and Luxury Tax

 

"WHAT'S THE RUSH?? ANY YEAR IS FINE."

Ronny Mauricio tears his ACL on Sunday December 10.  

Surgery a lengthy 23 days later.

Projected 8-12 month recovery period.  

I'm not a doctor, but if the operation could have occurred on, say, December 12, two days post-injury, and he missed 8 months, he could possibly have been back in mid-August.  

Instead, early September at the earliest.  

Aww, c'mon, these are the Mets.  Figure 2025.

What's the rush, his career will last another 40 years, right?  

No??

As my brother would say, "Our guy gets hurt? Only the Mets."

Plug "Bizarro Boulevard" into Waze. It will take you right to Citifield.

2019 Draft Update:

Here's a draft retrospective for 2019, to look back at: 

1) How Mets kiddies drafted in rounds 1 thru 5 panned out, 2012-23, 

2) Which of all the Mets' picks that year actually made it to the dance. 

Round 1 goes to (envelope, please)... 

Brett Baty!

Struggled in 2023, but still expected to be a decent full time MLB player. No need to rehash that here.  You know the guy.  He ain't Warren Beatty yet.  Or even Zelmo Beatty.

Round 2 - Josh Wolf - Now 23, he his 9-18, 5.51 in his career, and has only gotten as high as High A.  That to me means he was not a good 53rd overall pick.  

But the Mets traded him at the right time - EARLY. Part of the trade for 2 guys named LINDOR and CARRASCO. 

No need to rehash that deal here.  You know the guys.  So, Wolf is not just some meaningless failed schmo.  He was a helpful trade chip.

Round 3 - Matt Allan - 10 inning debut in 2019, none since.  NOT...A...SINGLE...INNING. But, as I understand it, he is expected to be healthy in 2024.  Only turns 23 in April 2024, so we can still hope he throws inning 11...and 12...and 13...etc., right? I want 120 innings in 2024.

Round 4 - Jake Mangum - seemed to be a good enough pick, as he was a big hits producer in college, but there seems to be a lid on him at AAA.  He will turn 28 before opening day. 

Now with the Marlins, he was "traded...to finish the previous trade that sent right-handed pitching prospect Franklin Sanchez to the Marlins for righties Elieser Hernandez and Jeff Brigham."  

Of the latter two, only Brigham pitched for the Mets of those 2, with a mid 5s ERA in mid-30s appearances.  He and Elieser, who only pitched (poorly) for the Mets in spring training, are now free agents.

The now-Marlins employee, Sanchez, is a very wild hombre, who walked an astonishing 44 and also hit 8 batters in 33 innings in the Marlins minors in 2023. 2.36 WHIP, too. Rick Peterson, where are you? They need you for 10 minutes.  

For a 4th round pick, maybe they could have drafted a more toolsy guy than Man Gum. Because this Jake seems to have produced in the minors as one might have expected when he was drafted, but it hasn't been good enough to get him to the dance.

Round 5 - Nate Jones: 147 career minors IP; released. Not a good pick.

7th round Luke Ritter has shown a solid power bat, and he produced an impressive 27 HRs in 369 at bats in AA and AAA in 2023, but overly high Ks have kept him out of the major leagues. So far.  Has been improving every year, though, but he will be 27 in February.  Improve some more, please.  

To speak up on his behalf, his fielding at 1st, 2nd and 3rd base in 2023 was excellent, and he seems to hit lefties better: 

2023, he was .247/.437/.546 vs. southpaws. 30 Ks in 103 PAs.

Minors, career, vs. lefties, he is 67 for 275 (.244) with 15 HRs, 48 RBIs, and an amazing 60 walks, but has also fanned a very high 94 times. 

Is 94 Ks in 335 PAs bad if your minors OBP vs. lefties is close to .400?  

Another guy who got screwed losing a full season of development, his 2020 minors season, to the COVID lockout.  

SO FAR, THOUGH, 2019? 

ANOTHER SUBSTANDARD DRAFT YEAR.

Next up? An update on 2020's Draft.  "The Crow flew west." 

MARTE MUSINGS:

Starling Marte was substandard last season and played only two games in early August after returning from an IL stint that started on July 17.  Marte hit only .248/.301/.324 in 86 games in 2023, and had a -0.8 WAR.  Edwin missing 2023, and Marte going from excellent in 2022 to lousy and limited in 2023, are two key reasons the Mets won a whopping 26 fewer games in 2023 than in 2022. 

I read that Marte is going to play some winter ball soon. 

Is this because he feels great?  The article I saw didn't say that.  

So, I surmise he is going to give it a go to gauge how close to, or far from, 100% he is, and probably to get a little jump on readiness for 2024 spring training.  We'll find out over the next few months what is really going on with him health-wise.  

It would be stupendous to get close to the 2022 Marte back, but I guess it is conceivable he is limited to being a part timer, or perhaps misses all of 2024, too, due to past injuries' lingering impairment. 

So, you may already know this but...

If Marte missed all of 2024, how would that impact the luxury tax?

I googled this:

Baseball contracts are fully guaranteed and as such count against the tax for the full term of the contract regardless of if the players cut ...

But you probably already knew this from the Robinson Cano deal, when he missed time.

So...you own it, you broke it, you pay it.

And, while contracts can be made to extend long into a player's late 30s (Lindor) or early 40s (Cano, Trea Turner) to most likely help the team in the short run lessen luxury tax impacts in the earlier (and presumably highest output) years, I read that "Baseball’s collective-bargaining agreement states neither players nor clubs shall enter into any agreement designed to defeat or circumvent the intention of the luxury tax."  

So, I am guessing that should Marte suddenly reach the end of the line due to health, the Mets can't rework his remaining 2 years into something less-cap-onerous.  

That would leave one option, I imagine...if you wanted to defray the cap, you could trade him to a team without cap problems, but would likely have to attach a top prospect to the deal to entice the other club to add that much salary to their luxury tax calculation.

P.S. Baseball Reference projects Marte, at age 35, will play a little less, perhaps 75% of the games in 2024, with 421 PAs (versus 505 PAs during his fine and mostly healthy 2022), and a nice .275/.337/.416 projected slash with 25 out of 30 in steals.  Sign me up for that.  And Fangraphs remarkably posts his 2024 projection at nearly 600 plate appearances. 

This is where YOU come in.  Thoughts?