"HEY! I SEE TWO GUYS SOON TO BE ON THE TOP 30 LIST"
Good morning.
Not everyone is in the Top 30 - or in Brennan's Top 35 Productive Prospects List, for that matter - but some can still have real promise.
I can think of two such infield guys right off.
Both lived for a while in 2023 in a deflationary environment - Brooklyn - which squeezes many hitters' stats (some, like Jett Williams, breeze through Brooklyn - but not many.
Let's look at two of them:
1) Junior Tilien
In 2021, international signee Junior (bonus: $185,000) skipped the DSL and headed straight to the FCL, which few DSL signings do. He struggled, hitting .165 in 32 games.
- But no DSL? That's impressive.
In 2022, Junior made baseball news when, as a 19 year old, he smacked 3 homers in a game for St Lucie. He ended up with 12 HRs and a .248 average there in 84 games.
In 2023, the 20 year old, 6'1", 170 pound Tilien started out in St Lucie and finished in Brooklyn. For the Lucites, he hit an OK .251. For Brooklyn, in 33 games, .228. Remember, he was age 20.
Speed is not part of his game, and he split time between SS, 2nd, and 3rd, and did OK at the latter 2 positions, not so well at SS. Let's see what he does with the glove in 2024.
In the last 2 seasons, Junior has had 648 at bats, 37 doubles, 2 triples, and 21 HRs, with 91 RBIs. Solid. He's also walked a solid 67 times, while fanning 151 times in 174 games. I like K rates well under 1 per game, a relative rarity in the Mets minors.
Regarding his average, he played in Brooklyn and St Lucie in 2023, and hit .261 on the road and .226 on the road. Sounds like a familiar home and away split, right?
My guess is at age 21 in 2024, he accelerates and thrusts himself well up into the top 30/35 prospects and has a big year in Brooklyn and Binghamton, unless they feel he has already done his penance in Brooklyn and move him directly to AA.
My guess is he will be a power hitting 3rd baseman in the pros, with power.
2) William Lugo
$475,000 bonus says they liked him a lot to pay him that much.
9 months older than Junior, Lugo will play 2024 as a 22 year old.
Brooklyn? In 2023, 54 games, .267/.351/.465! Not bad.
On the road? In 52 games, he had a paltry slash line of .208/.283/.310. Go figure - a guy who actually hit better in Brooklyn!
Career, he has been up 1,105 times, with solid power: 55 doubles, 5 triples, 32 HRs and 152 RBIs. But just .233, with 307 Ks in 307 games - BUT just 92 Ks in 107 games in 2023, so that is real improvement.
He had a good defensive season, with just 5 errors in 42 games at SS, 7 in 47 games at 3rd base, and none in 11 games at 1st base. Surprising is his shortstop play, as he is listed at 6'2", 215. Not much speed, but he has swiped 13 of 22 in his career.
So...we'll see in 2024 if he is ready to make a major step forward. Presumably, he will be headed to AA.
Gotta elevate that average - the infield competition is fierce in the Mets minors.
Both Junior and William need to up the number of games they play in 2024. Then, I surmise that their 2024 offensive numbers will really impress, and both will shoot into the Mets Top 30. I am guessing both will be ranked in the 11-20 range at this time next year. So, keep your eyes on both.
I wrote a lot about the Mets' subpar minors hitting last year. Sometimes, though, a handful of weak hitters can submerge an organization's overall stats. Jaylen Palmer and Omar De Los Santos ate two of them - they had very high combined numbers in three categories:
One good one was steals ,where they combined to steal 67 bases.
Two bad ones?
327 Ks in 220 games. THAT is an occupational hazard.
.188 combined average.
,188 in a combined 756 at bats will suppress an organization's overall stats, no doubt. What would the minors hitting stats have looked like if they hit .288 instead of .188?
Omar turns 25 in August, and seems like a failed experiment.
Palmer turns 24 in August and has played professionally since 2018 - ditto.
Both will only be viable in my mind if they somehow figured out during this off-season how to fan 40% to 50% less. That seems highly unlikely - can you think of any player who has done so? I can't envision either playing much in 2024. Why take at bats away from the many other minors players who don't have similar K problems?
The duo seems to mimic the career of Champ Stuart, a former Mets minors speedster who stole 147 bases but hit just .219 because he fanned 633 times in 491 games. Which actually was a better K rate than either that of Omar or Palmer. He petered out in AA.
11 comments:
Tyler Stuart was last year's surprise.
I predict this season's will be...
Brandon Sproat
Sprout? How about Alex Ramirez.
I believe Ramirez won't pan out
Hope I'm wrong
Mack, I’m going with Ziegler as this year’s surprise…along with…Matt Allan.
Koo’s, I am with Mack on Ramirez. He regressed last year. To impress me, hit .300 in AA this season, with 15 HRs.
Mack, I forgot Stanley Consuegra. If he plays 130 games….35 homers.
Hi Tom. Great job as always. You won’t be surprised to hear that I’m happy to see William Lugo profiled. He did look like a player in ‘22 (at 20 yo) but whatever the injury was that delayed the start of his ‘23 for more than a month seemed to derail his entire first half. A thing to keep in mind is that a lot of the cumulative stats you mentioned were from when he was 18/19. The power seemed to be really blossoming the second half of ‘22 and flashed both in big league ST and later in the year last season. He can hit the ball very hard and very far (and I know how much you value power in prospects). From my limited exposure seeing him with the glove, he looks to have the hands and arm to play 3B in Queens. He’s the guy in the system I’m most hopeful of taking a giant leap forward this season, because I think he has big potential. Decent chance he starts or is quickly promoted to AA. Hoping he stays healthy and takes that leap. If he does, I think we’ll be talking about a potential MLB debut in ‘25, when he’ll still play the entire season at the ripe young age of 23. Thanks again, Tom.
Adam, good stuff. Did you see Jose Peroza too? If so, how would you compare the two?
I liked Peroza, but I think that Lugo is better defensively, has significantly more power, and a much higher ceiling. Also, in ‘22, as a 20 yr-old, Lugo had a 10.5% BB rate, indicating that he already had a good-to-advanced eye at the plate. I was looking for Lugo to make a leap last season, but the injury (whatever it was) really set him back.
Ramirez will be back. The BABIP will return, he will be allowed to swing freely again instead of being sapped of his aggressiveness and the fielding…. excellent.
Adam, you are convincing me. Now, Lugo has to convince the baseball…”It’s time for you to leave.”
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