Remember 1969: Thoughts for December 10, 2024

 

Remember's Ramblings – Volume 1, Article 9

December 10, 2024

 

Any recent news worth talking about?

As I sat there on Sunday night wondering what I was going to write about for my Tuesday article, it hit me:  Let me check MLB.com and see what was going on approaching Dallas Texas. 

I WAS going to write about the increasing cost and value of starting pitching so the news on the wires fits right into my theme. 

It seems a little double sided to complain about the $22M+ per year that mid-range starting pitchers are commanding and then exalt over Juan Soto being a Met for $50M+ per year until I am more than 80 years old. 

However, if you have read my writings and comments over the last couple months, you’ll know I was one of the strongest advocates of signing Soto.   I was well aware of the money it was going to cost.   Now that he is going to be presenting his craft for our Mets, I am going to re-post my writing from 5 weeks ago of the reasons I wanted him to sign.   They all still look good and we can certainly address each point annually, but I am a happy Mets fan today.

From my November 04, 2024 writing:

This is a player that really has only one peer in baseball today – Shohei Ohtani, who last year commandeered a $700M deal from the Dodgers and while never playing the field showed that he deserved it.     That does not automatically say that Soto will step in and be the league MVP every time he steps on the field, but in the greatest baseball market in the country with one of the richest owners in baseball and significant dollars coming off the books after 2024, this is as close to a must-have player as free-agency has ever delivered. 

My arguments:  

·        Soto turned 26 years old less than two weeks ago.   

·        He has amassed 36.4 bWAR before his 26^th birthday.

·        On his current projection, he will have over 100 bWAR before his 40^th birthday   

·        His career OPS in 7 major league seasons is .953

·        His career on base percentage in seven major league seasons is .421

·        He has walked more than he has struck out in his career, including in each of the last 5 years

·        He has played at least 150 games every season since 2019. 

·        His longest hitless game streak in 2024 was 3 games.   He is not a particularly streaky hitter who is prone to long term slumps.

·        There is no other hitter available (and very few throughout baseball) who is as complete a hitter as Soto. 

·        He is a proven hitter in the post season. 

·        He has proven he can play in New York.

·        New bullet – December 10:    A recent stat that I saw was that Soto’s OPS in Citi Field was the highest of any visiting park he has played in throughout his career with more than 65 plate appearances.   He has a 1.175 OPS in Citi since 2018.    Oddly, by contrast, his OPS in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field is only .708, his lowest anywhere. 

·        New bullet – December 10:   An article on MLB.com which details some really sick stats ->  https://www.mlb.com/news/juan-soto-on-base-skills-best-in-mlb .    The most amazing one to me is his swinging at just 18% of the pitches out of the strike zone.     With today’s pitchers throwing all those sliders and sweepers designed to make hitters chase, swinging at less than 1 of every 5 of them that are not strikes is incredible. 

·        New Bullet – December 10:   An interesting article on MLB.com with 13 Amazing Stats and Facts about Juan Soto à  https://www.mlb.com/news/juan-soto-amazing-stats-and-facts .   If the years between 26 and 31 are considered prime, the next five for Mets fans will be fun to watch.     

·        The Mets swung and hit a proverbial homer with a big contract to Carlos Beltran 20 years ago.  

·        The Mets swung and hit another proverbial homer with a big contract to Francisco Lindor 3 years ago.

·        Why not do it again?   The numbers are bigger and more mind boggling, but so are the accomplished stats.   Update December 10:  I think we have a trifecta here.   Time will tell. 

Update December 10:   This next paragraph is something that I had researched last month and still think it is extremely striking.    I am a huge proponent of ‘the team that strikes first’ …

Another plus to be considered:   The Mets were a poor first inning team in 2024.   Their batting average, OPS, and runs scored total saw the first inning be the second worst of any of the nine, second only to the wildly statistical anomaly of the seventh inning.    The Mets scored just 67 runs in the first in 162 games this year.   Soto alone scored 33 runs in the first inning this year with 32 walks, a .317 BA (compared to the Mets .221),  .455 OBP and 1.041 OPS.    Adding a number 2 hitter with those kinds of game opening statistics would help the starting pitchers immensely.   Jumping out to a first inning lead is a big deal. 

A top four line up of Lindor, Soto, Nimmo, and Alonso (??) with Alvarez, Vientos, McNeil … behind them would be among the best in baseball and would get many more Mets games off to a better start than they had in 2024. 

OK, now the downsides:     

·        His defense.   Ok, he has less than all-star defensive stats, although his numbers in right field are somewhat better than those in left.   

·        His remarks following the World Series that were interpreted by many as being classless, saying the words out loud that are so well known in baseball.   A player is going to follow the money.      I suppose he might have been able to say it a little differently, but I cringe when I hear some of the questions that are asked of players.  I don’t have the entire conversation, but he was certainly being honest.  

·        Commenter Dallas in an initial piece on Juan Soto written by Mack last week made the following excellent statement:  “Obviously Soto is a special player but he isn’t without his warts. He can barely field. Do we know how he is in a club house? His work ethic? His love of baseball? I assume Stearns and team will do their homework on all of this and make the right choice.”   

·        New bullet- December 10:   In spite of his poor reputation as a fielder, he was a gold glove finalist in 2024 and the throw he made in the playoffs to nail the runner at the plate was pretty impressive.   The Mets obtained Jose Siri to play center field (along with Tyrone Taylor).   They should really help mitigate any defensive concerns in right-center field and give Soto a little less room to have to roam.    I have been reading some points on his being a ‘baseball gym-rat’ lately, as well as other points on being a good guy.  

I don’t know what it will take to sign Soto, but let’s play big market team and come up with a competitive offer.   If, like Yamamoto last year, he chooses to sign elsewhere, oh well, but don’t be shy.   Perhaps a two-tiered offer could be made – a long-term 14 year $700M deal ($50M per) or a shorter 8 year $450 - $480M offer to bump the AAV to $55M to $60M and then give him a chance for another contract at age 34 at the market prices of 2033.     Ohtani’s contract set a bar for $$ now, and with the game flush with money, that will be the going rate for superior talent. 

We now know what it took.  The numbers thrown around earlier were just a tad conservative.

Also in that November 04 article, I addressed re-signing Pete Alonso. 

My words then:

Let’s talk about Pete.  Supposing the Mets had an opening for a first-baseman – perhaps theirs wasn’t performing up to snuff – think a couple of the last years of Dom Smith or Ike Davis.   They take a look at the free agents and there was a guy that was playing out there someplace for the last 6 years that never played in less than 150 games in a non-COVID year,  and for every 162 games averaged almost 700 plate appearances, 150 hits, over 40 home runs, over 110 RBI  and had an OPS over .850 and still hasn’t reached his 30^th birthday, would you want your team to take a look?     Heck yeah.   Let’s sign that Alonso guy.    He makes the line-up better.    And I have a sneaking suspicion that without a free-agency year to worry about, the best is yet to come for him.  

Let’s throw him a 6 year deal of $170M or so and see what he does with it.   In 6 years, he could be pushing 500 career home runs.   Showing him the New York love will pay off and we’ll have a race to 500 homers in the same park at the same time.   Two Hall of Famers from the same team?    

Note -December 10:   If I am Pete Alonso this morning, I come groveling to David Stearns and Steve Cohen and sign a contract and say “fill in the numbers”.    Hitting behind Juan Soto would be the best place to be in baseball.   Ask Aaron Judge.   I’d pay to play in that spot.

 Remember’s Ramblings:    A touch on the Pitching 

 

I will follow-up with a full article, but with the winter meetings in full force, what I’d like to see:    The Mets not enter the bidding for the top end guys like Burnes or Fried.    I would like to see Manaea back at Citi, but I am afraid Severino, Kikuchi, etc. have driven the prices up to somewhere it doesn’t make any sense.    I wouldn’t mind seeing a trade for good solid relief pitching (A. Diaz???    D. Williams???).   Also, as I researched and stated in last week’s article, they could do much worse than bringing Ryne Stanek as a free agent.    

I am of the mind that starting pitching now holds as little importance as it ever has.   Starters are throwing almost the same number of pitches as they ever have, but are now commonly taking just four of five innings to do that.   The pen needs to built up with quality ‘long guys’, as well as the back-end closers.   

And to my point about Soto and the first inning above, IF the Mets can become a dominant team in the first inning, their pitching benefits from that in a huge way.   Their starters become better automatically.   Pitching with a 2-0 lead from the start is much easier than wondering if they are going to have any runs before inning 6. 

More on pitching in a future article.

 Remember’s Reminiscing:  December 10 Birthdays 

 

Five Mets are celebrating birthdays today:    

 Happy Birthday to Ted Martinez,  Doug Henry, Mel Rojas, Dan Wheeler, and Victor Diaz.    Some pretty interesting surnames there of more accomplished Mets players with different first names.