MACK - My Thursday Observations

 

Good morning.

Well, next Thursday is opening day so it’s time to begin my annual prediction as to where this team will finish this season and who the stars will be when the season is over. I don’t predict who will fail. That’s Tom’s job.

For starters, and for starters, let’s state the obvious when it comes to who will be the most successful starting pitcher in the minor league chain. I give this to (for now) Binghamton righthander Jonah Tong.

My prediction is he will blow through AA, be promoted to AAA before the all-star break, stumble a little as he adjusts to all the different crap at that level, and finish strong. There will be no promotion to Queens this season, but he will be in line to compete for a major league slot during the 2026 spring training.

As for minor league reliever, I give this to a guy that may turn out to be a starter instead. UCLA’s own RHRP, Will Watson, actually started nine of his 16 games last year for the Trojans (3.93), before being drafted by the Mets in the 7^th round. He went on to relieving in two St. Lucie games (3.38) near the end of the season. His go-to pitches are a mid-90s 4-seamer (with quality ride) and a + changeup. Watch for his conversion from a slider to a sweeper. My guess is he will return to warm St. Lucie for the beginning of the season, regardless how the Mets use him. But, due to his 22-year old age alone, look for a quick promotion to Brooklyn.

My runner up here if Will starts goes to Eli Ankeney, who spent all of 2024 healing from TJS. He pitched to a 3.07-ERA combined for St. Lucie and Brooklyn in 2023, has a two-season pro 2.84 and a 2.61 in college. Oh… and there are those 155 strikeouts in 111.1-IP.

Former top prospect Allan healthy, on comeback trail at Mets camp

https://www.mlb.com/news/matt-allan-trying-to-come-back-from-injuries-at-mets-camp

It’s been nearly six years since the Mets selected Matt Allan in the third round of the 2019 Draft, paying him a well-above-slot bonus to convince him to turn pro. It’s been nearly four years since Allan underwent the first of two Tommy John surgeries -- an operation that part of him always expected. It’s been more than three years since doctors cut back into Allan’s elbow to transpose a nerve. It’s been two years since they knifed into his leg to harvest a tendon for his second Tommy John.

Now, for the first time since spring 2021, Allan is a healthy player. He’s been throwing bullpen sessions and live batting practice, sitting 94-97 mph, with an eye toward pitching in Minor League games once they begin. When camp breaks next month, Allan expects to report to an affiliate for the first time since 2019.

            -Hit 99 yesterday…

 

Matt Eddy’s Breakout MLB Prospects Team For 2025

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/matt-eddys-breakout-mlb-prospects-team-for-2025/?s=03

Feature on Boston Baro

MLB insiders rank starting pitchers: Who’s ‘just a guy’ and who’s No. 1?

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6197907/2025/03/19/mlb-starting-pitcher-rankings-player/

 

Kodai Senga

Mets, RHP

After Senga won the National League Rookie of the Year award in 2023, his second act was a bust. He appeared in just one regular-season game. He hurt his shoulder in the spring, strained his calf upon his summertime return and pitched only a handful of innings during the OMG Mets’ run to the National League Championship Series. One scout suggested the Mets should shift to a six-man rotation to maximize Senga’s ability. “Let him pitch once a week,” the scout said. “You’ll get more out of him. He’s electric when he’s right.”

The Athletic Mailbag –

Who do you think will make it to the major-league team first? Sproat or Tidwell? — AK L.

Will: My guess is Sproat just because he’s the better prospect. But Tidwell impressed some club officials this spring. Tidwell struggled in Triple A last season but made some key changes. His stuff improved. In a recent outing, I heard Tidwell’s fastball sat at 97.5 mph and hit 99 mph. The added velocity — he also added 10-15 pounds of muscle — helps all his pitches. But he needs to show consistency to receive consideration at some point.

Seven New York Mets minor league arms to watch in 2025

https://www.si.com/mlb/mets/news/seven-new-york-mets-minor-league-arms-to-watch-in-2025

1. Brandon Sproat, RHP [No. 1 ranked prospect Mets prospect]

You've certainly heard the name by now; Brandon Sproat is the king of the castle as the No. 1 ranked prospect and pitcher in the Mets' farm system. Sproat's fastball that reached 102 mph on the radar gun is a dream for any major league staff.

The right-hander will be 25-years-old in September and all he needs to do is dominate for a brief period in Triple-A Syracuse before he gets his first MLB call-up. Sproat is getting close to the majors and could emerge as a frontline starter for the Mets as early as this season.

The Athletic - What the Mets’ rotation will look like in the early season

(sub)  https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6207728/2025/03/16/mets-early-season-pitching-plans/ 

In the bullpen, while A.J. Minter and Dedniel Núñez are taking steps toward a return, both are likely to begin the season on the injured list. The expectation is that both should be ready to return around the middle of April, right when a 15-day stint on the IL would expire.

Max Kranick, Huascar Brazobán, Tyler Zuber, Genesis Cabrera and Anthony Gose are all options to fill the two vacancies. Zuber left his appearance Sunday early after taking a comebacker off his right elbow. However, Mendoza said the team was merely being cautious and didn’t expect to take any imaging of Zuber’s elbow. Of that quintet, the lefties Cabrera and Gose are not on the 40-man roster.

The Athletic - Which Mets prospects are poised to break out in 2025? Meet 5 under-the-radar candidates

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6192476/2025/03/11/new-york-mets-breakout-prospects-2025/?onboarded=true   (sub needed)

Jacob Reimer, 3B

Highest level reached in 2024: High A

A hamstring injury sidelined Reimer for most of 2024. He had just 95 plate appearances and produced just a .640 OPS. He tried to make up some time in the Arizona Fall League, and the fact he had more walks (15) than strikeouts (14) there encouraged club officials.

But making good swing decisions was never much of an issue for Reimer, the Mets’ fourth-round pick in 2022. His biggest challenge is hitting balls in the air. He simply hits way too many grounders. Reimer worked extensively with Albert late last year on hip rotation, which might help lead to more line drives and fly balls.

“I feel like he was a little forgotten (in prospect publications) because of the injury, but he is such a hard worker,” Christie said. “He absolutely crushed his routines after the fall league.”

Reimer played some outfield in the Arizona Fall League, but the expectation is he will mainly see time at third base.

 

The Athletic - Which Mets prospects are poised to break out in 2025? Meet 5 under-the-radar candidates

Mets looking for top prospects to complement veteran stars

https://www.mlb.com/news/new-york-mets-spring-training-prospect-report-2025?partnerID=web_article-share

Something to prove: Kevin Parada

A year ago, Parada landed in this category as well. The club's 2022 first-round pick out of Georgia Tech had hit 11 homers in 87 games with High-A Brooklyn to earn a promotion to Double-A in '23, though he missed time with a right ankle injury. He posted just a .636 OPS in his first time with Binghamton, then a .611 OPS in 18 Arizona Fall League games, all while concerns about his defensive game grew.

There is some grace given to catching prospects in that the lift for them on both sides of the ball is heavier than for other positions. The hope was that a reset button could be hit for 2024, but that didn’t happen as the backstop returned to Double-A and slashed .214/.304/.359 with a 33.7 percent strikeout rate, a big reason why he fell out of the Mets' Top 30 this year. He’ll still play most of this season at age 23, but this is a big year for Parada to produce like many expected him to when he was drafted.

“He’ll tell you that himself,” Christie said. “He came in this year with an entirely different body, leaned out, but maintained strength. He knew he needed to swing freer. It looks awesome right now. He looks free, and mentally, he’s in a better spot. He has something to prove, but he's not putting a burden on himself.”

Just Baseball - New York Mets Top 15 Prospects

https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/new-york-mets-top-15-prospects/?s=03  

Other names to consider -

Trey Snyder– SS/3B – (CPX): A toolsy prep shortstop out of Missouri, the Mets selected Trey Snyder in the fifth round of the 2024 MLB Draft. He was signed for just over $1.3 million, nearly $900K over-slot, as the Mets gave him late second-round money to forgo a commitment to play at Tennessee.

Snyder played just six games in St. Lucie at the end of last season, where he struggled against the Low-A competition. The 19-year-old is likely to begin this year in the Complex League, where he could get the chance to play shortstop consistently as opposed to fighting for time in a crowded infield at Low-A.

Christopher Suero – C – (High-A): A Bronx native, Christopher Suero moved to the Dominican Republic after one year of high school baseball to be eligible to sign as an international free agent, inking a deal with the Mets in 2022. Suero picked up catching just before signing, so he is still relatively new to the position.

Having grown up playing the outfield, the Mets have given him time in left field and at first base to maintain some versatility. A great athlete, Suero swiped 20 bases between Low-A and High-A last year while demonstrating a strong ability to get on base.

Medium - The Really Big 2025 Mets Prospects Ranking

https://medium.com/@mdonodeo8/the-really-big-2025-mets-prospects-ranking-5c0fbaaa49f0  

21) Jacob Reimer

Reimer missed the first half of the season with a hamstring injury before working his way back up to Brooklyn and eventually the AFL. His calling card is that he’s a potential on-base machine — on tracked data in low-A in 2023, he was 90th percentile or better for the level in both zone contact and chase rates. He can get passive at the plate, but the chase rates are low enough the plate discipline should still be a positive (presumably the sprawl of Port St. Lucie was overrun with contact-and-passivity-driven teenagers not unlike a scene from the Walking Dead.) Visually he looks like a power hitter- I wouldn’t be surprised if his listed 205 pounds is underselling him a bit — but the EVs have maxed out at 107 mph. There is some bat speed here — he swung 82 mph in the fall league on a groundout, although there are a ton of caveats about bat speed, both in terms of our limitations of measuring it and me probably not using it 100% correctly here. That said, I think there’s proof of concept of physicality that will be needed to stick as a bat. He worked over the 2023–24 off-season to unlock some power to the pullside, and while there was an uptick in pulled fly balls as he tones down some movement in his swing, the overall ground ball and pull rates trended slightly backwards. He’ll likely need to get into this game power to stick in the majors, as he’s not particularly fleet of foot defensively and likely won’t provide much value there if he manages to stay in the infield, which isn’t a possibility. If the power doesn’t come, it’s a weird tweener profile, but he could be a very fun bat if it does. 

22) Jonathan Pintaro

Pintaro may or may not be considered a prospect depending on who you ask, as he’s already 27 years old, but I think he’s worth mentioning considering he’s very well traveled but has yet to debut in the majors. After playing in D2 college ball and in the draft league, he went to Tread and popped while pitching in Indy ball. With further refinements to the arsenal pre-2024, he looks like a potential major league piece for 2025 in some capacity. His most used pitch is his cutter which he’ll use against both sides of the plate; he throws it around 90 with 7 vert and a couple inches gloveside. The fastballs sit around 93–95; the more common one is a four seam with 13 vert, and the other is a sinker with big shape at 3/17. He also throws a sweeper in the low-80s with around 13” sweep and he’ll flash a changeup at 5/15. All of these movement profiles are affected by the release — the 5’ launch helps the four seam play up in the zone, and means the sinker might not get as much perceived drop as the raw movement, and the 3.5’ release makes the HAAs of the breakers more extreme. This means that there might be some platoon splits, but the breakers are good and he should be able to play the vertical game enough to be usable against lefties. It’s a fun profile that should get some spot starts or long relief looks next year, and a savvy pickup from an organization that’s now good at doing these sorts of things.

Jim Koenigsberger            @Jimfrombaseball 

“A hotdog at the ballgame beats a steak at the Ritz”

Humphrey Bogart