You heard it here first. Sean Manaea will win the comeback player of the year at the end of this upcoming season. I can almost hear you all saying, “Wait! What?!”
Let’s begin by looking at how we got here.
In the 2022 and 2023 seasons, Sean Manaea was a decent left-handed pitcher throwing for NL west teams. He compiled an 8-9 record with a 4.96 ERA over 158 innings with the Padres, then went 7-6 with a 4.44 ERA over 117 innings with the Giants. The Mets picked him up for the 2024 season in free agency as a David Stearns project – turn an inexpensive, average pitcher into a star by leveraging the technology and instruction that the Mets had invested in. Manaea started the year in a similar fashion to his previous two years, though a little better. However, around mid-July after watching Chris Sale pitch agianst the Mets, Manaea started experimenting during a bullpen session and discovered a secret weapon. By lowering his arm angle, he was able to create a lot more deception with rise on his pitches, and batters struggled to adjust. He finished the 2024 season with a 12-6 record and a 3.47 ERA – a full run lower than his norm over the prior five seasons.
This remarkable change in performance earned him a contract extension worth $75M over the three year period from 2025 through 2027. It also earned him favored status with Mets fans, who naturally extrapolated his improvements into projection for stardom over the extended period. Most of you read the stories in the 2025 pre-season that vaulted him to the top of the rotation.
Unfortunately, during that same pre-season, Manaea suffered a right oblique strain during his workouts, and began the season on the IL for what turned out to be half of the season. He finally returned on July 13th but never returned to his 2024 form. There was no talk of further injury, but his appearances were so ineffective that the Mets moved him to the bullpen in mid-September after 10 mostly poor starts. Those starts lasted 4-5 innings and ballooned his ERA into the fives.
As impatient New York fans like to do, Manaea was then dismissed as a “bad deal”, Stearns was blamed for the contract extension, and many writers would not pencil him in higher than a fourth starter for the 2026 season. Even the Mets’ own site has him as a #5 starter behind Jonah Tong in the rotation!
With that history, I now head into my own projection. Manaea is the same guy with the same arm that he was in 2024. His 2025 season is a write-off because his oblique injury dramatically affected his cross-fire delivery, and even when healthy he mentally could not get the “feel” back from the prior year. But given a winter off to heal both physically and mentally, and over two months in Florida to work in the pitching lab and the back fields, I believe that between Manaea and the Mets’ coaching staff, they will find a way to return to the very effective 2024 pitching mechanics.
Manaea is 33 years old this year, which is not young for a pitcher, but not at an age where performance necessarily falls off. He has never relied on ultra-fast pitches to blow away batters, so his 92mph fastball could be just as effective as before with his deceptive delivery. He needs to get back to a better mix of pitches than he had in 2025. The difference between the 2024 and 2025 seasons in pitch mix is striking – it is pretty easy to tell that he didn’t feel comfortable on the mound.
A few months of supervised work in the lab and on the field should bring that all back. And when it is, one would expect a similar level of performance to his 2024 campaign with double digit wins and a mid-threes ERA.
Start polishing the trophy.
12 comments:
Paul's been smokin' that old weed he has had stashed away in his attic since his college days.
Manaea has a better chance of adding a fourth "a" to his last name than winning this award.
I'm not sure he even gets a chance in the rotation in 2026. McLean, Holmes, Senga, and Peterson are a lock for the opening day rotation. That leaves one slot for either Tong, Sproat, or Scott to steal away after a great spring training.
Im still confused by his elbow issue or whatever or loose particles that involved no end of year surgery but its fine now?
Tucker and IFA signing day
Gird your loins
Paul. I'd like to agree with you, but I think he will be closer to being released by July than win that award.
Last year, after signing a ridiculous contract came in out of shape. How do you pull an oblique muscle when you don't have any?
Trade him for Christian Walker or a bag of balls.
I still maintained that last year’s problems were due to the haircut. Kidding aside we can only hope that he pitches as well as Mickey Lolich. You remember Mickey, Lolich was eight and 13 with the punchless 1976 Mets, but his ERA was in the low threes. All we can ask is for Sean to get his ERA in the low threes. And let the hitters and BP do the rest.
I am with Mack on this one. I’d be surprised if he’s the big comeback guy. I just hope he’s the 500 pitcher guy and that he gives us 170 or more innings.
Mack, Mets fans have a history of injuries due to ungirded loins. Very painful. Maybe today will be delightful.
Mack,
The Mets have added five International prospects thus far today. Excellent article on Baseball America his morning.
Wandy Asigen SS
Cleiner Ramirez OF
Johendys Sanchez SS
Sebastian Toro SS
Ryan Rudas OF
So
They pulled it off?
So far, so good
I'm somewhere in the middle on Manaea. I don't see him as comeback player of the year,, but that just may be a bit of intentional hyperbole on Paul's part. I don't see him as washed up either. I believe the change in delivery was stressful on the obliques which had been accustomed to supporting his prior delivery angle. That's how the body works. The stress on the obliques would have made them vulnerable to injury in the absence of a physical program designed to strengthen their capacity to support a different arm angle.
If his obliques can support the arm angle delivery and there are no other collateral untoward effects on the body the next issue is simply one of feel. Can he recover the prior feel. You can't perform well thinking about your mechanics. You develop a feel that you begin to associate with movements that seem to work; and then you rely on experiencing that feel as a way of repeating the mechanics.
When people talk about losing the feel, they are really talking about this relationship between the mechanics and the feel they develop around those mechanics. It's the feel they rely on when performing.
I don't expect he will be lights out top of the rotation guy, but I do believe he can have a big bounce back year from last year and become a middle of the rotation pitcher, if his body has been reshaped to support the arm angle and he develops the connection between feel and mechanics
I will make one of my rare predictions
I.predict he started the season on the IL
I didn't expect a lot of agreement with this one, but I am still sticking to my choice. He will find himself again. That doesn't mean top of the rotation, but it will be a pleasant surprise in the middle of the rotation.
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