RVH - June 2025 Review

Holding the Line — at a Cost

This is the third installment in the 2025 Mets Season Review Series. Each post steps back from day-to-day noise to diagnose what actually happened, why it mattered, and what it revealed about the organization beneath the results.

If April showed what the Mets could be at their best, and May revealed the first cracks, June was about survival.

Data sourced from BB Reference, Fangraphs, and StatHead.

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📊 Monthly Snapshot (June)

JUNE 2025 SNAPSHOT

OUTCOMES

Games             27

Record                 10–17 (.370)

Runs Scored (RS) 103

Runs Allowed (RA)       151

Run Differential          –48

RS per Game      3.81

RA per Game      5.59

OPPONENT & SCHEDULE CONTEXT

Opponent W% (season) .514

Games vs Playoff 15 of 27 (56%)

Home Games 14 of 27 (52%)

Road Games 13 of 27 (48%)

Days Off   4

Postponements   0

Doubleheaders   0

June marked the first month where the Mets were outscored.

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🧮 Outcomes vs Expectations (June)

Measure	Actual	Pythagorean	BaseRuns
W–L Record	14–13	~13–14	~12–15
Win %	.519	~.481	~.444
Run Differential	–3	–3	–8 to –10

Takeaway:
The Mets slightly outperformed both Pythagorean and BaseRuns in June — a familiar sign of a team compensating for structural issues with execution, sequencing, and bullpen leverage.

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⚾️ Run Creation — Monthly

Runs Scored Distribution

RS Bin	Games	W–L	Win %
0–2 RS	7	1–6	.143
3–4 RS	8	3–5	.375
5–6 RS	6	4–2	.667
7+ RS	6	6–0	1.000

Quantitative read

• The offense increasingly lived at the extremes

• High-output games still produced wins

• Low-output games were nearly unwinnable

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🛡️ Run Prevention — Monthly

Runs Allowed Distribution

RA Bin	Games	W–L	Win %
0–2 RA	5	5–0	1.000
3–4 RA	7	5–2	.714
5–6 RA	8	3–5	.375
7+ RA	7	1–6	.143

Quantitative read

• High-RA games became far more commo

• The margin for error continued shrinking

• Run prevention volatility was now a defining trait

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🧠 Qualitative Context (Monthly)

By June, the rotation length problem was no longer subtle:

• Manaea and Montas were effectively unavailable as reliable innings sources
  
  

• Senga’s health and effectiveness remained uncertain
  
  

• Peterson and Holmes were asked to shoulder heavier loads than planned
  
  

• Holmes, in particular, struggled to consistently reach the 5th inning as his workload climbed sharply versus prior seasons

Bullpen usage remained aggressive. Execution remained strong. But the system was paying interest on earlier stress.

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📈 Season-to-Date (Through June)

📊 STD Snapshot

Metric	Value
Games	81
Record	47–34 (.580)
Runs Scored	391
Runs Allowed	345
Run Differential	+46
RS per Game	4.83
RA per Game	4.26

The Mets entered July with a strong record — but a plateauing profile.

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🧮 STD Outcomes vs Expectations

Measure	Actual	Pythagorean	BaseRuns
W–L Record	47–34	~45–36	~43–38
Win %	.580	~.556	~.531
Run Differential	+46	+46	+36 to +38

STD takeaway:
The gap between actual wins and BaseRuns continued to widen. The Mets were still winning — but doing so with diminishing structural support.

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⚾️ Run Creation — STD

• Offensive output remained league-competitive

• But the lack of a consistent middle band persisted

• The team still required favorable run environments to win

🛡️ Run Prevention — STD

• Overall numbers were drifting in the wrong direction

• The distribution showed more frequent high-stress games

• Bullpen reliance was now a season-long pattern

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🧩 Strategic Takeaway

June defined the 2025 Mets as a good team operating at the edge of its tolerance. They were no longer building surplus. They were maintaining position.

That distinction matters — especially with the trade deadline approaching and no clear internal source of durable innings ready yet.

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💬 Audience Prompt

At the end of June, did this feel like a team poised to add and surge… or one already compensating for deeper limitations?

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🔁 Transition to July (Pre-Deadline)

July would bring clarity. The Mets’ record said “contender.”  The underlying indicators said “fragile.”

How the front office interpreted that gap would define the rest of the season.