Pujols/Wilson Fallout

The Cardinals enter the POST-Pujols era today and I'm betting they just have Berkman move over to first and focus on other areas (Heck, sign Carlos Betran to play RF) . There are other teams that are directly affected by the signings. Here are some of those teams that are affected by the moves and how I think they might react.

The Chicago Cubs: Prince Fielder is no longer so extremely essential as the Angels are adding Mark Trumbo and Kendrys Morales to the mix of 1B candidates. Now... the Cubs don't have a lot of trade chips to offer but a three team deal with Texas and LA involving Garza and Morales/Trumbo could work for everyone. However... I betting Fielder lands in Chicago anyway.

The New York Yankees: Pujols doesn't matter but C.J. Wilson going off the market that leaves the Yankees with a SINGLE impact pitcher available. What makes this worse is that I foresee in my crystal ball that Boston and their Japanese speaking manager will be signing Yu Know Who (I think it would also be a great sitcom if Darvish and Valentine were roommates). What does that mean? Well... it means the Yankees will probably need to make a trade or be left behind. The Mets are a viable option on two fronts: 1) The Yankees could move Burnett away in a deal that involves Jason Bay (Maybe Mike Pelfrey too) or 2) They can go after Jon Niese. The rub? The Mets will want Montero... and Montero... and Montero.

The Florida Marlins: The rumors about them and Fielder... just don't make sense. UNLESS they were planning to move Gaby Sanchez for a big-time pitcher... which I can't see. I'm betting that the Marlins are pretty much done with Bell, Reyes and Buehrle. Frankly is a lineup of: Reyes, Sanchez, Ramirez, Stanton, Morrison that much worse than: Reyes, Ramirez, Stanton, Fielder, Morrison?

The Tampa Bay Rays: Look at all the available 1Bs... I think they can find a match for Trumbo or Morales. I also think that might keep them ahead of the AL East in terms of overall talent. Adding a switch hitting bat like Morales to the middle of their lineup would be huge.

The Milwaukee Brewers: If/When Fielder signs with the Marlins or Cubs... Mark Trumbo looks like a good fit to replace the Prince in the kingdom of Beer and Cheese. Not exactly sure who gets traded to LA but I'm thinking that the Angels will sort it out.

Crystal Ball Projections:

Prince Fielder: Goes to the Chicago Cubs For 6+ Years and $160+ Mil

Kendrys Morales: Traded to the Tampa Bay Rays for Prospects

Mark Trumbo: Traded to the Milwaukee Brewers for Prospects

Yu Darvish: Signed by the Boston Redsox

Yankees & Marlins: Don't do anything

Jose Reyes to Miami? Three Reasons it Makes Sense for Everyone

The rumors are swirling. According to Yahoo Sports Jose Reyes being acquired by the Miami Marlins is "almost a done deal". How close it is at this time is up for debate. After all, why would Reyes enter the free agency pool in order to test the market just to end up taking the first bid that comes along. The truth is that this is a good fit for him and the Mets.

First, from his perspective, there are three reasons why it is immediately a good thing to be in Miami. One, he gets to be with his best friend, Hanley Ramirez. That is important for players that are established in the league. They want to feel comfortable. They want their family to feel comfortable.

Ramirez and Reyes are Godfathers to one another's children. That speaks volumes to their relationship. It was Ramirez that did the courting in this case, though, the weather and an upstart Marlins lineup doesn't hurt either.

Two, as I just mentioned, the Marlins are young and talented. They have every chance to contend with one or two players added to their lineup. Another player mentioned on Yahoo Sports is Albert Pujols. I wrote an article a few weeks ago stating why that is a better fit for Pujols too.

The truth is it's a good fit for Reyes for many of the same reasons. The Marlins team needs experienced leaders to compliment their young talent. A careful blend of the right players in that clubhouse would make them an instant success.

Third, the cultural effect. It is a mistake the discount the cultural aspect in this case. As I mentioned previously, veteran players want to be comfortable. They want their families to feel comfortable. Part of that is being with people of like minds and backgrounds. The Marlins are managed by a Latino coach in Ozzie Guillen.

Miami has a tremendously large Latino culture, even more than New York. If Reyes were to uproot his family and replant them elsewhere, it would have to be a similar environment. Miami is such an opportunity for him. When a player is comfortable, they perform.

As for the Mets, it makes sense to let him go. There are three reasons for that too. One, the Mets have far too many needs and far too little money to tie their budget up on a handful of players.

Thanks to the efforts of Sandy Alderson, they finally freed themselves of crippling contracts like Francisco Rodriguez, Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez. The last thing they need to do is add another overblown deal for an oft-injured player.

They have Jason Bay tied up and he is not even close to be trade bait. The same is true for Johan Santana. All the talk has been of trading David Wright, but the front office likes him far too much for that to be a reality, unless, in the words of Michael Corleone, another team "makes them an offer they can't refuse".

The Mets need starting pitching, bullpen help and a closer. They need an outfielder, a catcher and bench players. How do they sign all of that with about $40-50 million to spare from their $110 million budget if they spend $15 million or more of that on one guy? It doesn't happen.

They would be much wiser to spread the finances out on multiple investments. Unlike the Marlins, the Mets are not one or two players away. They need a lot of development for their young players to finally contend. They will have to wait for that development to come to fruition.

Two, they need a healthy change in their "core". Since the Mets signed Carlos Delgado and Pedro Martinez in the Omar Minaya era, the Mets have had a core of players they counted on to win consistently. They haven't. Reyes and Wright are all that's left of that ineffective core. With the departure of Reyes, they have to face the cold truth that they need to rebuild.

Their "Los Mets" and "New Mets" plans were failures. The main reason they failed was due to injuries though. No one can really foresee that, but when a team signs older players it has to be on the collective minds of the front office.

It was a chance they were willing to take and it did not pay off. They have to tear down and build again. The Marlins have done it three times. They have two championships to show for it. They built on young talent. Perhaps the Mets need to take a lesson from that.

Three, the clubhouse will completely belong to Terry Collins. In 2006, the Mets were contending and making teams angry. They would over celebrate and therefore became a target. These same Marlins admitted to wanting to spoil the Mets playoff chances in 2007 due to the showboating. When the Mets acted like every hit they came through with won the World Series, it left a bad taste in the mouth of the opposition.

The major argument I hear about Reyes is his energy. That energy comes with the arrogance. Both spread through a clubhouse equally. Terry Collins is the last guy to want that in a clubhouse. With Reyes gone, there will be less of that example around. Each player has a better chance to conform to his style of play: hard, hustling and humble (in other words respectable).

Will the Mets miss Jose Reyes? Yes, absolutely! Will they struggle without him? Most likely, yes. I'm not saying they are immediately better off, but in the long-term, they can overcome this.

If the Marlins really are close to signing Jose Reyes, it makes sense all around. For Reyes, the Marlins and the Mets.

An Alternate Approach

What if I were to suggest the Mets start their offseason... NOT signing Jose Reyes? GASP! What? But... He's Jose! We LOVE Jose! YOU love Jose! How could you? Well... I'm just trying to think pragmatically about what is available and what is easier/harder to find through free agency. For instance is it more or less hard to find a leadoff hitter, or a middle of the order guy?

I've already given you all my Plan A: Sign Reyes and Win Posting Rights/Sign Yu Darvish. I think the plan would make me and most Met fans a touch more optimistic about the 2012 season and beyond. HOWEVER... I'm going to be working hard to come up with some other plans that might involve thinking outside the box a little more.

Step 1: Buy the Biggest Impact Bat Out There
Albert Pujols is in his low 30s and still likely to be among the top 5 players in the game for the next... 5 years? Let's ignore that the Mets are not a likely landing zone, the Cardinals are likely to retain him and that he'll cost a good deal MORE than Jose Reyes. If the Mets sign Pujols and not Reyes... their roster's overall hitting takes a hefty up-tick. It does add the SLIGHT problem of then not having a spot for our dear friend Ike Davis to play. Not to worry, I found him one... though some fans may not like it.

Step 2: Trade Ike Davis to the Tampa Bay Rays
It hurts to trade home-grown talent. ESPECIALLY cheap and productive talent like Davis but you need to understand the market with trades. The Rays are not a wealthy team and a player, like Davis would be valuable as much for his bad as for his low contract. The big piece I'm asking for is just as cherished by the Rays. David Price is 26, he's a lefty and he's DANG good. Why in the world would the Rays trade Price? Well... Price's price tag is about to be on the rise... and quickly. His FIRST arbitration is supposed to exceed all other first arbitration cases thus far... (Kershaw's will be higher still). ALSO, the Rays have a pretty well-stocked system in regards to pitching and Davis fills one of their problem areas cheaply and effectively. Now... if I'm the Mets I'm including another prospect with Davis for a prospect back from the Rays. (Ike Davis + Zack Wheeler for David Price + Tim Beckham or something similar) The Mets would target Tim Beckham or Hak Ju Lee (The Rays top SS prospects) in an effort to replace the void left by Jose's departure. This would give Mets a better chance of developing a useful MLB talent between Tejada, Valdespin and the player we acquired.

By doing this, the Met payroll STILL winds up being around $110-120 Million Dollars and the team... at least on paper, seems to be a touch more potent. (Overall) We might lose a pitcher from our AA stock-pile in the trade with Tampa but we get deeper at a position where our options are limited and

Lineup:
1. Angel Pagan, CF (S)
2. Reese Havens, 2B (L)
3. Albert Pujols, 1B (R)
4. Lucas Duda, RF (L)
5. David Wright, 3B (R)
6. Jason Bay, LF (R)
7. Josh Thole, C (L)
8. Ruben Tejada, SS (R)

Bench:
Ronny Paulino, C (R)
Fernando Martinez, OF (L)
Daniel Murphy, Util (L)
Justin Turner, IF (R)
Joshua Satin, IF (R)

Rotation:
1. David Price, LHSP
2. Johan Santana, LHSP
3. Jonathan Niese, LHSP
4. R.A. Dickey, RHSP
5. Dillon Gee, RHSP

Bullpen:
Bobby Parnell, RHRP
Pedro Beato, RHRP
Taylor Buchholz, RHRP
Manny Acosta, RHRP
D.J. Carrasco, RHRP
Josh Stinson, RHRP
Daniel Herrera, LHRP

Now... I'm not saying this is the right approach. I'm just looking for alternate plans. With this plan we have Pujols' bat in the heart of our order, Price at the front of the rotation and Valdespin and Beckham in the minors as a long-term solution for SS.

Spending Other People's Money

How Much Money Do The Mets Have?

If you trust the Wilpons... none. The Wilpons claim to be losers in the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme and... frankly... I think they probably were (overall). Do I think that they'll get off paying NOTHING? No, they'll need to pay. Picard had to have some sort of evidence to try the suit in the first place. They won't be giving back $1 Billion, the won't be giving back $300 Million, they'll be giving back something, but I'm pretty sure David Einhorn's money will cover it.

So the Mets have? Listen, it's not like I have access to their books. It seems to me that the Mets should be able to field a team at or above $120 Million simply based on geographic location AND having their own network. That isn't so far above what I would call the poverty line for major market teams ($100 Million). The Wilpons and Alderson know that they cannot field a team below that point without risking severely negative fan response.

Why They WON'T Spend Money: Beyond Jose Reyes, there aren't a lot of players the Mets could uses. They aren't going into the Pujols derby, (as much as I'd like them to) they aren't going to pay the posting fee for Darvish, they aren't going to over-pay for Wilson, so... who are they planning to spend the money on?

Why They WOULD Spend Money: How do you energize a fan-base who are frustrated and disillusioned? You sign someone who would (just by putting on a uniform) bring fans to the ballpark. Jose Reyes is one of those guys but it's not the same when you're bringing him BACK. There are only two other "Wow Factor" players hitting free agency: Albert Pujols (32) and Prince Fielder (28). The issue, as we all know, is that there is nowhere to play them. So... unless you sign Albert and trade Ike Davis that doesn't make sense. Think you can make a splash that would get the fans excited? I would love to see another solution to get the fans excited. If they can't get someone really good, I don't think Alderson wastes time and money with too many people in between.

Impact Free Agents:
Albert Pujols (32)
Jose Reyes (29)
Prince Fielder (28)
Brandon Phillips (31) [If his $12 Mil option is declined]
Yu Darvish (25)
C.J. Wilson (31)
Carlos Beltran (35)
Grady Sizemore (29) [If his $8.5 Mil option is declined]
Lance Berkman (36)
Heath Bell (34)
Jonathan Papelbon (31)
Francisco Rodriguez (32)