Mack Ade – Morning Report – 10-11-13 – First Base, Colorado, David Price, Johan Santana, AFL

Andy Martino –

                “Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, Wilmer Flores and Josh Satin are a flawed group, but there are enough of them to push the Mets into using their resources for other positions.” - http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/baseballinsider/2013/10/why-ny-mets-dont-expect-to-pursue-robinson-cano-jose-abreu-and-why-thats-w-0

Mack – This was the last line of Martino’s ‘Insider’ report on Wednesday evening. I’m not the biggest fan of Martino, but I agree with him here, other than the fact that I would take a legitimate run at Mike Napoli in the $13mil, 3/yr. range. If he can get more, fine, let him seek employment elsewhere. I still would like to find a way of getting Flores at least 300 at-bats in a platoon with either Duda or Davis. Frankly, you have to let the other two seek a future with a different club. You can’t carry four first basemen.

A couple of things that could develop here:

                First of all, a couple of them did play other positions but the majority of their games were on first base and their combined 2013 stats were 28 home runs and 96 runs batted in.

                There could be some off-season interest in Flores, even though he under-impressed when he was promoted to Flushing. Insiders liked the way he had the knack of driving in runs even though he wasn’t producing the overall stat line they had hoped for. Then, he came up lame and basically the season was over for him.

                The other scenario is what if Duda or Davis start the season off hot? Do you shit can the platoon?

All of this will make  lot more sense once Napoli signs somewhere. It definitely will if that somewhere is… here.

 

More Martino -

Ten years, $305 million (Cano)? When Alderson heard about his request from the Yankees, he must have said "no thanks" in considerably less time than it takes Cano to jog to first base. We're talking about a GM who wrestled with the decision to give face of the franchise David Wright an eight-year deal. People who know Alderson well say that was a tough commitment for him to make, even to a player he likes. So don't expect him to play that game with some other franchise's guy, sources say.

                Mack – Let’s understand something. Sandy Alderson hates long term deals. The Wright deal came down from the Wilpons and wasn’t his idea. He signed off on it because his bosses wanted it done.

                There is no way anyone is going to get a 5-year deal out of this guy… if… he really is in change, and right now, I believe he is. The front office believes that, with an assit by Omar Minaya, they have solved the long term pitching situation with this team. They will slot in selective free agents if and when players like Matt Harvey go under the knife.

                They also believe that their pitching almost got them to the playoff, even with the rag-tag group they put on the field. Yes, they need to replace the loss of Marlon Byrd, but I’m sure you will see at least three new every day field players to join Wright and Travis d’Arnaud.

                But, forget your five year contracts. They aren’t happening.

 

Colorado –

                Colorado Rockies owner Dick Monfort said that he will not consider trading either SS Troy Tulowizki or OF Carlos Gonzalez.

Mack – In fact, he said he plans on spending more money for another big bat. I’m sort of happy about this. I never expected the Mets to be able to make a deal for either of these guys and, if you have to have them on a National League team, it might as well be a bad one.

The bad news is we probably just lost about 25% of the comments that will be listed on my site, but it seems like our best bet right now would be either Carlos Beltran or Marlon Byrd, or both.

 

David Price –

                David Price told reporters Wednesday night that he expects to be traded by the Rays this offseason.

                                Mack – I know we discussed Price before, but let me remind you just how bad things are financially in Tampa Bay. This team has less attendance than Miami. Do you know how hard that is to do? The city of Tampa Bay simply doesn’t support this team and the owners can not afford to stock their 40-man with anybody but pre-arbitration eligible prospects. The team that secures Price through a trade will be the team that offers the most talented young and cheap players, not established starts. Tampa Bay also has a shit load of players hitting free agency including three other pitchers. Look, make the phone call. Offer Rafael Montero, Jeremy Hefner, Wilmer Flores, and Jordany Valdespin. What do you have to lose? They may not hang up and just say, no, take out Valdespin and “add in Juan Lagares and you got a deal”.

 

                                Johan Santana -

Everybody knows that Johan Santana missed the entire 2013 MLB season due to surgery on his throwing elbow, the second time he’s had that procedure done on the same arm. All signs are pointing to the New York Mets buying out the rest of his contract, which would be a $5.5 million buyout. Even after the buyout, Mets general manager Sandy Alderson said he would “possibly” look to sign the two-time Cy Young Award winner on the cheap. http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/2013/10/10/even-if-johan-santana-comes-back-to-the-new-york-mets-how-effective-is-he-going-to-be/?0sMtcepG3ZdaRRyW.99

Mack – First of all, define cheap. Would Santana give the Mets a home team discount and sign for $5mil more than the buyout, $10mil for one season? And exactly what would be Santana’s incentive to sign for only one season?

This is a first class gentleman who fully understands that the Mets paid him $25,000,000 to basically eat at Duffy’s last season, but he’s always been a ‘business only’ kind of guy a la Carlos Beltran.

I will tell you this… if his arm isn’t heals, Alderson will know about it. That’s not Santana’s act. He’ll be up front about his health.

If I could only crystal ball this and know that the Mets could get two quality years from this guy, just imagine the 2015 rotation.

 

AFL –

                The Mets had big hopes that OF Cory Vaughn could draw a line in the sand and begin to stat out in the Arizona Fall League. So far, he is 0-9 in the first two games, has one error, two strikeouts, and was benched for game three. 3B Aderlin Rodriquez has also started off hitless, going 0-7 through Thursday. Only Cam Maron has produced a hit, going 1-3 in Thursday’s loss.RP Cody Satterwhite earned the save in game one after a scoreless ninth inning. (Satterwhite was signed by the Mets after being released by the Detroit Tigers. He has suffered multiple years of shoulder problems and has, at time, watched his velocity go from the mid-90s to low-80s. He signed on with Indy Sioux City Explorers where he pitched in 19-games, 2-1, 0.65-ERA, 27.2-IP, 31-K, 7-BB. His overall minor league affiliated ball stat line is: 4-yrs, 6-8, 3.44, 1.55, 102-IP, 109-K, 66-BB. This looks like a quality sign and watch for the 26-yr. old to move on to Binghamton next season.)He pitched another scoreless inning on Thursday. In addition, fellow reliever, Chason Bradford has pitched 0.1 inning of scoreless ball.

 

Mack Ade – Morning Report – 10-8-13 – Noah Syndergaard, Travis d’Arnaud, Ike Davis, Matt Kemp, David Price

 

John Manuel –

Scouts and managers considered him the easy choice as the best pitching prospect in the FSL thanks to a premium fastball, notable as much for its arm-side run and ability to get in on righthanded hitters as for its premium 94-98 mph velocity. Noah Syndergaard adds a fine pitcher’s build and clean delivery, both indicative of durability. Scouts and managers in the FSL considered his secondary stuff—he throws both a curveball and slider as well as a firm changeup—closer to average, with the change more on the fringy side.

 

Brian Zarpentine –

Travis d’Arnaud is set up to be the starting catcher in 2014, and the Mets hope he can hold that position for many years to come. But considering his injury history and his inexperience at the major league level, the Mets need to make sure they have a competent backup, and their best bet is finding a veteran that knows going in that he’ll be a backup and who will be happy with that role. The Mets have solid catching depth with guys like Anthony Recker, Juan Centeno and Francisco Pena, but if d’Arnaud gets hurt, there’s no way they can feel good about going with any of those guys for an extended period. This means they’ll have to find a dependable veteran catcher in free agency. http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/2013/10/07/top-5-offseason-priorities-for-new-york-mets/?xgbODHfrxKMwQhsT.99

                Mack – I don’t agree with Brian. You simply can’t solve everything in one year and I think going with a young catching crew is just fine. Now… if John Buck wants to come back for around $3mil  a year…

 

Rob Patterson - 

When all is said and done, I expect the nod to go to Ike Davis once again (unless he is traded), despite the fact that Lucas Duda has a better approach at the plate.  The Mets are invested in Davis and his power potential.  They have also seemed hesitant to admit their mistake in each of the following two seasons when they waited forever to send Davis down.  With all the chances he has been afforded already, I'd just be surprised if he didn't get another. http://effingmets.blogspot.com/2013/10/the-mets-mess-at-first-base-davis-or.html

Mack – First of all… great new blog site from a veteran blogger… I agree with Rob. Given a choice between Ike or Lucas, I also have to stay with the pedigree pick. Both play the same kind of game with a bat in their hands, but Davis wins the tie-breaker with his potential Gold Glove defense. You know I would rather have Mike Napoli over both these guys, but, if I have to choose with what I have, I would go with Davis.

 

Steve Keane -

The one player of that financial magnitude that intrigues me is Matt Kemp.  Kemp has been plagued by injuries this season and a slow healing ankle sprain is keeping him out of the Dodgers post season run but when healthy, Kemp is the player the Mets desperately need to assist in turning around the team’s losing frown. His combination of power and speed plus his outfield defense would be the big ticket acquisition that would make baseball stand up and notice that the Mets are back in business. http://www.kranepoolsociety.com/2013/10/07/matt-kemp-a-met-why-not/

Mack – Maybe Steve is on to something here. Maybe the only chance the 2014 Mets have is to take on some other team’s damaged goods. Something has to budge in the Dodgers outfield. Four all-stars, Kemp, Carl Crawford, Andre Eithier, and Yasiel Puig are under long term contracts here and someone has to go. The assumption has always been Either, who has had problems with manager Don Mattingly, but they seem to be in the past. Any trade of Kemp would first be considered a salary dump ($21.75mil/yr through 2019). It might surprise Mets fans how little it would take to pry him away. My guess… 100% of the contract plus two pitching prospects.

 

Christopher Soto -

Something to put on the morning report. What are the Colorado Rockies needs? With Helton gone they need a 1B and still need upgrades offensively. How about we send them Murphy (an upgrade over LaMahieu), Davis (could hit 40 bombs in Coors), Montero (groundball/control pitcher with High #3/Low #2 potential), and Nieuwenheis for Carlos Gonzalez, who is reportedly more likely to move than Tulo?

                Mack – This is what the Democrats and Republicans are missing out on… negotiating. We’ve been throwing around different trade scenarios for either Troy Tulowitzki or Gonzales. They make more sense each time they are tweaked. This might be the best one because it included Rafael Montero, a pitcher that has already showed his stuff in a city (Vegas) similar to Denver. You also can give them a hoice betweek Duda or Davis. I like this one and Colorado could also, especially if the Mets took on 100% of the contract.

 

Michael Scannell –

All this talk about needing to add offense is justified and obvious. However, with David Price apparently hitting the trade market, would you trade any of the Mets' young pitching to acquire him?  Getting him would give the Mets an Ace for 2014 and a top 2 of Harvey and Price after that.  Would you be willing to make a deal for him, say starting with Wheeler and Niese?  2015 -  SP1 Harvey,  SP2 Price,  SP3 Syndergaard…  I don't know that I would....don't know if I wouldn't.

                                Mack – I have followed Price since his days in Vero Beach. He would cost you big time, but, IMO, he’s easily worth $15mil, probably much more. The secret to any trade here is health. If you has a crystal ball and could guarantee that Price would stay healthy while Harvey came back 100%, you would wind up with a legitimate SP1 to help you return to respect in 2014, and probably one of the top three SP1-3 in 2015. Yes, I’m always ready to consider a pitcher for pitcher deal. Price is a better pitcher than Wheeler and he will only be 28 next season. Plus, he’s a lefty. In a heartbeat.

 

And lastly, we’re always looking for additional Mets writers especially now during the slower, off-season. We especially invite writers who specialize on other teams, baseball history, fantasy, or baseball cards. Most of the writers here participate on a weekly basis, but there are no general rules so once a month is more than we would have had if you didn’t join us. Please contact me at macksmets@gmail.com and we’ll make the arrangements to join the site.

 

 

Baseball – Reno Bertoia, David Price, Danny Clyburn Jr., Mark Teixeira

Reno Bertoia (b. 1935), born in Italy and raised in Canada, was an infielder who played ten years for the Tigers, Senators/Twins and A's.  He was apparently a great friend and roommate of Tiger great Al Kaline. fairandunbalancedblog  

David Price - For the third year in a row, Price's peripherals improved. Price was a little lucky in 2010; in 2011 he was somewhat unlucky. The slip in Price's ERA last year is good news if you're looking to build your staff around him this year; his price might slip a little bit despite the fact that he's a bonafide ace. Don't be afraid to grab him at a top tier price. Price looks like he's about to become the top shelf pitcher many thought he would be when he burst onto the scene in the heat of the 2008 pennant race. http://rotothinktank.blogspot.com/2012/02/top-10-al-starting-pitchers-2012.html?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed  

At the end Saturday, there were no more thunderous cheers for former major league baseball player Danny Clyburn, Jr. No more home run trots, or tipping a cap to adoring fans. No more "big stage." Just tears, caused by one thing: Bullets. Clyburn, 37, who played parts of three seasons in the majors in the 1990s, widely regarded as one of the best, if not the best ballplayer to ever come out of Lancaster, died Tuesday after an argument on the same street he grew up on. Clyburn, who lived in California, had only been home a few days for a visit when he was shot. It remains unclear why Clyburn was shot around 2 a.m. in front of a clubhouse where people gather. http://www.heraldonline.com/2012/02/12/3735848/the-end-of-the-applause-for-slain.html?storylink=addthis#.TzdK8MgPnm4.twitter#storylink=cpy

Three years after signing Mark Teixeira, the Yankees have reason to be moderately disappointed with their $180 million first baseman. There were no complaints following his first season in pinstripes, when his combined on-base and slugging percentages were third in the American League and the Yankees won the World Series. But since then, his value has headed south. According to Fangraphs.com, his play in 2010-11 was worth $32 million to the Yankees, well short of the $44 million he was paid http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/

An Alternate Approach

What if I were to suggest the Mets start their offseason... NOT signing Jose Reyes? GASP! What? But... He's Jose! We LOVE Jose! YOU love Jose! How could you? Well... I'm just trying to think pragmatically about what is available and what is easier/harder to find through free agency. For instance is it more or less hard to find a leadoff hitter, or a middle of the order guy?

I've already given you all my Plan A: Sign Reyes and Win Posting Rights/Sign Yu Darvish. I think the plan would make me and most Met fans a touch more optimistic about the 2012 season and beyond. HOWEVER... I'm going to be working hard to come up with some other plans that might involve thinking outside the box a little more.

Step 1: Buy the Biggest Impact Bat Out There
Albert Pujols is in his low 30s and still likely to be among the top 5 players in the game for the next... 5 years? Let's ignore that the Mets are not a likely landing zone, the Cardinals are likely to retain him and that he'll cost a good deal MORE than Jose Reyes. If the Mets sign Pujols and not Reyes... their roster's overall hitting takes a hefty up-tick. It does add the SLIGHT problem of then not having a spot for our dear friend Ike Davis to play. Not to worry, I found him one... though some fans may not like it.

Step 2: Trade Ike Davis to the Tampa Bay Rays
It hurts to trade home-grown talent. ESPECIALLY cheap and productive talent like Davis but you need to understand the market with trades. The Rays are not a wealthy team and a player, like Davis would be valuable as much for his bad as for his low contract. The big piece I'm asking for is just as cherished by the Rays. David Price is 26, he's a lefty and he's DANG good. Why in the world would the Rays trade Price? Well... Price's price tag is about to be on the rise... and quickly. His FIRST arbitration is supposed to exceed all other first arbitration cases thus far... (Kershaw's will be higher still). ALSO, the Rays have a pretty well-stocked system in regards to pitching and Davis fills one of their problem areas cheaply and effectively. Now... if I'm the Mets I'm including another prospect with Davis for a prospect back from the Rays. (Ike Davis + Zack Wheeler for David Price + Tim Beckham or something similar) The Mets would target Tim Beckham or Hak Ju Lee (The Rays top SS prospects) in an effort to replace the void left by Jose's departure. This would give Mets a better chance of developing a useful MLB talent between Tejada, Valdespin and the player we acquired.

By doing this, the Met payroll STILL winds up being around $110-120 Million Dollars and the team... at least on paper, seems to be a touch more potent. (Overall) We might lose a pitcher from our AA stock-pile in the trade with Tampa but we get deeper at a position where our options are limited and

Lineup:
1. Angel Pagan, CF (S)
2. Reese Havens, 2B (L)
3. Albert Pujols, 1B (R)
4. Lucas Duda, RF (L)
5. David Wright, 3B (R)
6. Jason Bay, LF (R)
7. Josh Thole, C (L)
8. Ruben Tejada, SS (R)

Bench:
Ronny Paulino, C (R)
Fernando Martinez, OF (L)
Daniel Murphy, Util (L)
Justin Turner, IF (R)
Joshua Satin, IF (R)

Rotation:
1. David Price, LHSP
2. Johan Santana, LHSP
3. Jonathan Niese, LHSP
4. R.A. Dickey, RHSP
5. Dillon Gee, RHSP

Bullpen:
Bobby Parnell, RHRP
Pedro Beato, RHRP
Taylor Buchholz, RHRP
Manny Acosta, RHRP
D.J. Carrasco, RHRP
Josh Stinson, RHRP
Daniel Herrera, LHRP

Now... I'm not saying this is the right approach. I'm just looking for alternate plans. With this plan we have Pujols' bat in the heart of our order, Price at the front of the rotation and Valdespin and Beckham in the minors as a long-term solution for SS.