Filling Out The Ranks From Here

25-Man Roster

Lineup: 8
1. Coco Crisp, CF (S)
2. Daniel Murphy, 2B (L)
3. David Wright, 3B (R)
4. Ike Davis, 1B (L)
5. Jason Bay, LF (R)
6. Lucas Duda, RF (L)
7. Josh Thole, C (L)
8. Ruben Tejada, SS (R)

Bench: 5
C: Mike Nickeas, C (R) [Ivan Rodriguez, C (R)]
IF: Justin Turner, 2B/SS/3B (R)
IF: Josh Satin, 2B/3B/1B (R)
OF: Andres Torres, OF (S)
OF: Fernando Martinez, LF/RF (L)

Rotation: 5
1. Johan Santana, SP (L)
2. Jon Niese, SP (L) [Javier Vazquez, SP (R)]
3. R.A. Dickey, SP (R)
4. Mike Pelfrey, SP (R)
5. Dillon Gee, SP (R) [Chris Young, SP (R)]

Bullpen: 7
CL: Frank Francisco, RP (R)
SU: John Rauch, RP (R)
SU: Ramon Ramirez, RP (R)
MR: Bobby Parnell, RP (R)
MR: Pedro Beato, RP (R) / Daniel Herrera, RP (L)
LOOGY: Tim Byrdak, RP (L)
LR: D.J. Carrasco / Manny Acosta, RP (R)

If I'm looking at this correctly... the Mets would only "NEED" a leadoff hitter who can play CF. The thing to remember is, there are differences between completing a roster and filling out the team. FRANKLY... part of filling out the team SHOULD be trimming some of the bullpen because A) We need another lefty in there and B) We need D.J. Carrasco out. It also wouldn't hurt to have a better righty option for backup catcher and perhaps a starter in the event we move Pelfrey or Niese.

Center Field:
There are actually a couple of pretty solid names in free agency to fill the Met need for an everyday CF and leadoff hitter. While if it were 100% up to me... I'd be going after 26 year old Cuban defector Yeonis Cespedes, I think there are two fairly realistic options.

Coco Crisp (32) - Coco is coming off a pair of productive years in Oakland where he's produced good speed numbers and reasonably good On-Base numbers. He made $5.75 Mil in 2011 and should be earning somewhere in that ballpark in 2012. I think the Mets could handle that, though they'd want to control his years to keep him down to 1-2 at the most.

Corey Patterson (32) - Corey will cost around $1 Mil and would probably sign a 1-year deal. I have WAY more faith in Coco Crisp being a solid everyday contributor, but if we are looking for an affordable stop-gap... he's our man. To top that off, Corey's numbers in 2010 are strikingly similar to Coco's and that could translate into Corey being a relative bargain.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis (25) - Captain Kirk is a solid option to replace Pagan as the everyday CF... for now. He's gritty, has improved steadily through the minors and has a mix of power and speed. The questions remain as to whether there is enough range to stick in CF. He makes great plays but what I have heard is that those plays are great only because he was too slow for them to be easy.

Matt Den Dekker (25) - Defense is not a problem for Den Dekker. He's probably the best defensive OF the Mets have in the farm system and I'm probably going to be one of the only people who thinks he can start the season in Flushing. His issue is that he's NOT a leadoff hitter. He'd be an asset at 6th, 7th or 8th (9th if we're being sneaky) but he's not an OBP oriented hitter.

My Plan?: I'd sign Coco Crisp as he's a good candidate to lead off in 2012. He'll cost somewhere in the realm of $5-7 Mil but I honsestly think his 2010-11 output would be well worth that figure. This semi-blocks Nieuwenhuis and Den Dekker, but I see Kirk as more of a replacement for Bay in the short-term anyway.

Catcher:
The story of Mike Nickeas is a good one. A player ready to pack it in and give up on his dream finally getting his shot and looking pretty decent. Sadly... I'm not satisfied with pretty decent when I need my catcher to hit. The loss of Reyes means the Mets cannot afford to have a purely defensive backstop... even if he's a backup.

Chris Snyder (31) - Snyder was once considered among the better catchers in the NL. He had reasonable power and a GREAT eye. He also was almost ALWAYS hurt. His OPS took a bounce back towards the positive in 2011 and he feels like a reasonably good fit for the Mets who could use him as the righty starter and defensive replacement for Thole. He might require a two-year deal... but the Mets don't have anyone in the pipeline so that wouldn't be so bad.

Dioner Navarro (28) - Remember 2008 when people thought Dioner was reaching that potential that the Yankees had drafted for in 2000? He hit .295 and was an all star. Remember how he followed that up? Since 2008 he's been nothing special. He fell from favor in Tampa Bay and failed to find himself in Los Angeles. The good news? He'd be earning a "Nothing Special" contract.

Ivan Rodriguez (40) - I've been playing fantasy baseball long enough that I remember Ivan Rodriguez being drafted #1. Rodriguez hasn't been young for 10 years but he was a pretty solid contributor as recently as 2010. PLUS he's just about the best candidate for training Josh Thole to be a star catcher that we could name. My big thing with Pudge is I just can't see him staying healthy enough to be there for 1 out of 4 starts and that is what the Mets would need.

My Plan?: I'd sign Ivan Rodriguez because in MY WORLD... I'm trading Niese for the future catcher of the franchise and want someone who can be a clubhouse leader and train Thole and the young trade target. I also think that if he'd be healthy he'd be a good fit for starting 1/3rd of the games in 2012.

Starting Pitcher:
Pelfrey WAS tendered a contract and I hope he proves all of us wrong over the 2012 season. He COULD do it... MAYBE... With Pelfrey locked down I'm switching gears to something I've talked about a few times... Trading Jon Niese.

I like Niese a lot. I really do. So before anyone gets the idea I'm Anti-Niese or that I don't WANT him on the Mets... cool your jets. I am simply WILLING to trade Niese for one of 5 specific prospect/players that I think are in the REALM of possibilities: Wilin Rosario (Col), Yasmani Grandal (Cin), Devin Mesoraco (Cin), Ryan Lavarnway (Bos) and Jesus Montero (NYY). Getting a catcher to take over

Chris Young - We already have one giant on the team (John Rauch), why not give him some company in the clouds? Young was good (until he was hurt) in 2011 and there is little reason to assume he wouldn't be just as good (and hurt) in 2012. He's a smart guy who knows how to pitch and if he could ever stay healthy (I refuse to infer that he will) he'd potentially return to being the top option he was 4-5 years ago.
Javier Vazquez - Remember that magical season in Atlanta when Javier Vazquez had the stats of a God? The Yankees do. They bought into that career year and suffered through a season of Javier looking like a batting practice machine. He then returns to the NL and... well not right back to near Cy Young but his ERA was under 4.00. He'd be attainable and might actually have the stuff to be a front-end starter.

Matt Harvey - Now people SHOULD say I'm crazy but if you are the Mets and Matt Harvey shows up this spring and blows the competition away, do you send him to the minors? HECK YES YOU DO! ARE YOU NUTZ!?! Then again... if you send him down to AA or AAA and he shines, how long can you keep him there. Harvey and Familia could easily force their own promotions by playing simply well. Fans will demand to see them. We sure don't have too much else we are crazy about seeing right now.

My Plan?: So... I'm trading Niese and signing both Vazquez and Young. Now... we've heard that the Mets would ask for a Jason Hammel type player in a deal for Niese but I think that with WHO we have in the rotation... signing Vazquez who has a better shot of being a #2 pitcher. Young replaces Gee/Schwinden... until he's hurt.

Now... Some well deserved and intended ABUSE...

So... You might have noticed that I'm signing more players than JUST Ivan Rodriguez. The fact is that I believe a NY sports team should be run like a NY Sports team and that a minimum payroll should not teeter near that poverty level of $100 Mil. The Mets should have the money to field a payroll of $120-140 Mil and if it weren't for Darth Fred, Jeff Ponz-Walker and Emperor Madoff we'd be able to do that. Heck... we can add that I'd like to sign Hong-Chih Kuo while I'm at it.

The Team I Listed Above is a Few Things:

1. Not as good as a team WITH Jose Reyes
2. Built to allow a good amount of turnover in the next 2 seasons
3. Capable of staying relevant through the middle of the season
4. Not going to happen with the current ownership regime

Pujols/Wilson Fallout

The Cardinals enter the POST-Pujols era today and I'm betting they just have Berkman move over to first and focus on other areas (Heck, sign Carlos Betran to play RF) . There are other teams that are directly affected by the signings. Here are some of those teams that are affected by the moves and how I think they might react.

The Chicago Cubs: Prince Fielder is no longer so extremely essential as the Angels are adding Mark Trumbo and Kendrys Morales to the mix of 1B candidates. Now... the Cubs don't have a lot of trade chips to offer but a three team deal with Texas and LA involving Garza and Morales/Trumbo could work for everyone. However... I betting Fielder lands in Chicago anyway.

The New York Yankees: Pujols doesn't matter but C.J. Wilson going off the market that leaves the Yankees with a SINGLE impact pitcher available. What makes this worse is that I foresee in my crystal ball that Boston and their Japanese speaking manager will be signing Yu Know Who (I think it would also be a great sitcom if Darvish and Valentine were roommates). What does that mean? Well... it means the Yankees will probably need to make a trade or be left behind. The Mets are a viable option on two fronts: 1) The Yankees could move Burnett away in a deal that involves Jason Bay (Maybe Mike Pelfrey too) or 2) They can go after Jon Niese. The rub? The Mets will want Montero... and Montero... and Montero.

The Florida Marlins: The rumors about them and Fielder... just don't make sense. UNLESS they were planning to move Gaby Sanchez for a big-time pitcher... which I can't see. I'm betting that the Marlins are pretty much done with Bell, Reyes and Buehrle. Frankly is a lineup of: Reyes, Sanchez, Ramirez, Stanton, Morrison that much worse than: Reyes, Ramirez, Stanton, Fielder, Morrison?

The Tampa Bay Rays: Look at all the available 1Bs... I think they can find a match for Trumbo or Morales. I also think that might keep them ahead of the AL East in terms of overall talent. Adding a switch hitting bat like Morales to the middle of their lineup would be huge.

The Milwaukee Brewers: If/When Fielder signs with the Marlins or Cubs... Mark Trumbo looks like a good fit to replace the Prince in the kingdom of Beer and Cheese. Not exactly sure who gets traded to LA but I'm thinking that the Angels will sort it out.

Crystal Ball Projections:

Prince Fielder: Goes to the Chicago Cubs For 6+ Years and $160+ Mil

Kendrys Morales: Traded to the Tampa Bay Rays for Prospects

Mark Trumbo: Traded to the Milwaukee Brewers for Prospects

Yu Darvish: Signed by the Boston Redsox

Yankees & Marlins: Don't do anything

The NY Met Bottom-Up Plan

Build from the ground up sounds like such logic that HOW could anyone try to build any other way. In pro sports, it's often the OTHER way around. My favorite example of this is the Miami Heat. Start with several ELITE ELITE talents... and then surround them with whatever is available. Championship GUARANTEED... WRONG! You want a team that build's from the bottom... look at a team like the Florida Marlins.

Florida's system of growing their talent in the farm and then making a BIG splash in free agency every 4-7 years is brilliant. You build the base of your team from within, then when you are on the rise you go out and buy that top tier talent to put you over the edge. If you look at the image above... you can see very easily the hazards of getting the big name (big PAY CHECK) players first.

The NY Met Bottom-Up Plan:

Step 1: Protect The Farm
If Seattle contacted Sandy Alderson today and offered Felix Hernandez for 4 of our top prospects... you have to believe it would be tempting. Felix is YOUNG and proven and guys we'd be trading like Wheeler, Harvey, Familia and Mejia could all FLOP in the majors. Here's the issue: King Felix has been in the league long enough to have earned a serious pay check. That check will only get bigger for the next 5-7 years. Trading for... and retaining a player like Felix Hernandez would cripple the finances of the team and seriously deplete our prospect pool. Are we building? GOOD, then our prospects are off limits unless we're trading for... well... prospects.

Step 2: Spend Wisely
Ordinarily you might have someone who is looking at a rebuild plan start with EXTREME fiscal responsibility. The Mets... despite what the media says... are NOT 4-5 years from competing. I would say 2012 is a pretty immense long-shot but 2013 and 2014 are not out of the question because of the crop of talent building in the farm. SO... what does this mean? Bluntly? It means we should sign Reyes. Ruben Tejada is not enough of a bat (at least until we have one like Havens on second), Valdespin doesn't look ready and all other free agents are pretty steep downgrades. So... getting Reyes, who is already loved by fans, likes New York and has succeeded there, is good business sense. We'd be signing Reyes to be our 2013 (and beyond) SS.

UPDATE: Since the Marlins have become SUPER-STRONG competitors for Jose Reyes the Mets NEED to up their game. The only thing worse than losing Reyes for a pair of picks is losing Reyes to a team that doesn't even give up a first rounder. Because the Marlin's 1st round pick is protected Alderson needs to UP his threshold. I'd be less upset if he landed in Philly. Despite what the media might say, NOTHING is written in stone and if the Mets wanted to make an offer to top the Marlins they COULD retain Reyes.

Step 3: Swallow Your Pride
I love David Wright (as a fan). He's my favorite player in baseball and he's on my favorite team. If the right offer came along, we're talking about Drew Pomeranz + two other top prospects, then I support the Mets making that move.

WAIT A MINUTE!!!

One second ago we kept Reyes because he was the best we could possibly do at that position for a couple of years. We're not going to get anyone remotely as good as David Wright for 2012, 2013 or 2014. Well... you're right. We're not. The difference is we have players who can man third and put up reasonable numbers. Daniel Murphy or Zach Lutz (Or BOTH!) could step in for 2012 and perhaps longer while players like Nolan Arenado (Hey... we traded Wright for him in this scenario), Jefry Marte, Wilmer Flores and Aderlin Rodriguez progress in the minors.

Step 4: Find Something To Love
2012 could be a long year, but giving up on the team doesn't exactly help the team to continue to improve. It may be enough to go to the ball park to watch Jeurys Familia or Kirk Nieuwenhuis, just to see what the kids are capable of. It might be enough to see a resurgent Johan Santana... or an emerging talent like Ike Davis. Whatever it is... fans can actually help a team rebuilding by going out to support it. That brings in revenue for the team and who knows... by 2013 the Mets could be ready to get that payroll back to the levels that we all believe a New York ball club should have.

Looking At Things From THEIR Perspective

I've done a lot of posting about what I'd do, or at least LIKE to do if I were running the Mets. I mean I've listed every solution from signing Reyes to going after Albert Pujols and back again. I think it might be more important to look at things from the perspective about the guys paying the bills.

Let us face some facts:

• Attendance Is Down
• The Team Isn't Winning
• They Either Participated In Or Were Taken By A Ponzi Scheme
• They Will Need To Pay Irving Picard Between $83 and $383 Million

Let us also remember that a year spent rebuilding without stars like Wright and/or Reyes means LOWER attendance, LESS wins and LESS revenue with which to pay Irving Picard. So... forgetting what is in the best interest of the team... what is in the best interest of the OWNERS?

Let us look at assets:

• David Wright, the face of the franchise, he's a homegrown talent with a large fan following. He's had a couple of rougher seasons now, and might net you more talent in a trade.
• Johan Santana, He's beyond the point where he's a draw for fans because he hasn't pitched in a long time and he's not the pitcher he was.
• Ike Davis, He's the future face of the offense which is fine, but he won't draw big box office numbers by himself.
• Scrappy Go-Getters, Daniel Murphy, Lucas Duda and R.A. Dickey might all be fine players but they aren't getting fans into the seats.
• Generation 2K, You have a crop of TOP starting pitching talent in the farm but it could be over a year away and could fizzle like Generation K did.

If Alderson did nothing, and let Reyes walk there isn't enough there to keep the fans interested. The Wilpons WANT fans to be interested. They would love to bring in an Albert Pujols who could single-handedly bring in a slew of fans with his reputation alone. However, Pujols does NOT make sense for the Mets and their pitcher's park. So... what should the Wilpons do to keep fans in the seats for 2012?

The Fan Plan:

• Re-Sign Jose Reyes - (It's a good-will gesture to the fans that you are not going to play it cheap in a big city like NY. It says, "Yes, we can afford to keep our home grown talent.")
• Lock Up Wright - (Does he live up to the marquee billing? Maybe not, but he's the face of the team and you need to maintain the face of your team until you can establish a new one. Think the Yankees with Jeter into Cano.)
• Let Alderson Find His Gems - (I'd love the Mets to anti-up and get a Yu Darvish or C.J. Wilson but that is a little much. Instead let Alderson take low-risk chances on guys like: Chris Young, Scott Kazmir etc...)
• Get A Legit Closer - (For a short-term deal. I'm starting to feel like Francisco Cordero is the best fit because he can come in with a 1-2 year deal, do his job... then retire.)

If the Mets did those things they could stay relatively competitive in 2012 and still start promoting the crop of young talent from 2012 to 2014. This way you aren't sacrificing the future but also not giving the fans reason to panic and/or abandon ship. It is in the Wilpon's best FINANCIAL interest for Alderson to spend SOME money.

Finding The Diamonds in the Rough

Low Risk... High Reward... we've heard it about 1000 times. A player who has been VERY good, who has dealt with repeated years of disappointment due to injury or some other issue. You give him an incentive rich deal for a single season and if he does NOT perform, you haven't lost much money. Let us see who is out there who might fit into this category.

Catchers:
The category is pretty slim in free agency. The only names I come up with are Ivan Rodriguez who will be 40 and Gerald Laird who reminds me of a slightly worse Ronny Paulino. Now... Ryan Doumit might be a guy to look at but all and all I don't think there is anyone with upside enough to bother.

First Base:
The Mets have Ike Davis who is cheap, young and talented. They also have Murphy and Evans who can fill in if there is an injury. Moving on.

Second Base:
I don't know if any of these guys are necessarily good fits for the Mets, but they are at least offensive upgrades to Ruben Tejada.

Aaron Hill - He's sorta been hit or miss his entire career. He burst onto the scene with tremendous numbers in 2007 then again came up big in 2009. He's got some power and the ability to play a few positions, but the question is... how much do teams think he's worth. Arizona could keep him for $8 Mil but... I'm betting they don't. As a free agent I think he costs AT LEAST $2.5 Mil guaranteed. But I doubt much higher.

Kelly Johnson - Kelly had a good year in Atlanta before falling off the charts rapidly. He then re-emerged in Arizona where he developed a powerful reputation for HRs and strikeouts. Now... he's probably THE best 2B on the market (if Phillips is brought back to Cincy) and not what I'd call CHEAP, but again I don't think the interest will garner a contract anywhere near $10 Mil guaranteed. Think more around $4 or $5.

Third Base:
IF Wright were traded... the Mets have Murphy, Lutz and even Evans, Satin and Turner to throw out to the position. HOWEVER, it never hurts to look at other options.

Kevin Kouzmanoff - From 2008 through 2010 he was actually a pretty solid contributor and he managed it in PITCHER parks. In 2011 he flopped pretty hard but he's likely to not cost much at all and he has pretty solid power. He'd NOT be more than a 1 year deal and for that year... he'd not be more than a $2-3 Mil guaranteed. IS he better than Murphy? I don't know. HOWEVER, we could potentially trade Murphy.

Short Stop:
IF Reyes isn't re-signed. There ISN'T a cheap option with high upside to be had. SORRY, Jimmy Rollins will not be cheap.

Outfield:
I only see the Mets looking at a free agent OF if they intend to not offer arbitration to Angel Pagan. If they do go that route getting a free agent CF in case Captain Kirk proves not to be ready would just be a wise backup plan. There are actually a good number of options. Though only two strike me as value options.

Nate McLouth - Remember when Nate was the best player on the Pirates? Well 2.5 BAD seasons in Atlanta later and few people do. His option will not be picked up and he's not likely to get a BIG offer from anyone. With all that out in the open, if I can get McLouth for less than the commitment we'd be giving Pagan in arbitration I think I'd have to sign up for it. He still has some power and some speed and gives some prospects a little extra time to develop.

Grady Sizemore - Since the height of his value in 2006 he's taken a nose dive. Does that mean teams have forgotten about what Grady COULD be? Maybe... maybe not. I'm willing to bet that the Mets COULD take a chance on Grady for right around what Pagan would win in arbitration and that the reward of suce a venture could be VERY high. It's a lot of IF. I still happen to think he has something to offer a pro team.

Starting Pitchers:
We've finally reached the point where you can BANK on Alderson getting 1 or 2 guys in this type of category. The list starts with a couple of guys we all know and from there... well it's other guys we know.

Chris Capuano - Capuano was not a phenomenal starter for the Mets but I like bringing him back as a starter because IF/WHEN the Mets start bringing up the Harveys, Familias and Mejias of the world he can switch back into the bullpen and be DARNED effective. He's also a fine option for eating innings as a starter during what might be another ROUGH rebuilding year.

Chris Young - Before he got hurt... AGAIN, he was the BEST pitcher on the Met staff. Will he be able to be healthy in 2012? Probably not, but he's also likely to be cheap, and WHEN healthy he's likely to be pretty darned good. If we struck gold and he managed to stay off the DL... well we would be in a very NICE situation.

Scott Kazmir - Kazmir fell off the wagon HARD. He's not looked at remotely like the pseudo-ace he was (briefly) in Tampa. He really wouldn't be expected by almost anyone to be anything all that special in ANY capacity. HOWEVER, as he was once a front-end starter and once a top prospect for the Mets so he'd be worth a minor league contract and Spring Training invite.

Javier Vazquez - His 2011 wasn't good but I still think Vazquez could cobble together another fine season of NL pitching. He actually might be my favorite pick from this list to have the biggest impact on the 2012 Mets. He's got the ability to be a #3 pitcher if things break right and wouldn't cost much more than a Chris Capuano.

Chien-Ming Wang - Now... he didn't exactly wow anyone in 2011 but with injury recovery I really think it's the second year back that you can judge. With a chance to train full time again, perhaps the Mets could coax Wang into the pitcher he was for that team in the Bronx? Perhaps not. Again... he wouldn't cost much.

Relief Pitching:
I'm sorry but there isn't a real answer for low-risk high-reward players right now. Once the number of teams looking for closers goes down... then YES, there will be, but until then all the options should be considered middle of the road (though Papelbon should be considered pricey).

Still Yet Another Approach

Since Carlos Beltran froze up against that fabled Wainwright curveball, Mike Francessa has been calling for the Mets to "Break Up The Core." Now... I'll note that he did it in an egotistical, I'm a Yankee fan and therefore the light shine out of my arse, way but he's been saying it for a while. Perhaps instead of trying to find a way to win NOW... we should be looking for a way to sell EVERYONE.

Step 1: Allow Jose Reyes to go. The Mets net two draft picks and move on from their all star short stop. This means that Ruben Tejada is moved across the diamond to short and that Jordany Valdespin is promoted to starting at 2nd.

Step 2: Trade David Wright. I went over the options in this previous post. The Mets can trade Wright for a bevy of prospects without worrying TOO much over WHERE they play because we're ready to move in a new YOUNGER direction.

Step 3: Ship off Johan Santana, R.A. Dickey and anyone else that might be worth even a middling prospect. Shed the payroll and stock the farm with every available person. You are going to have to potentially eat some contract but isn't it going to be worth it?

Step 4: Sign mediocre guys looking for a rebound. Sign them to one-year deals and no more.

Conclusion: The Mets would be worthless in 2012, would begin to build in 2013 and might make a run in 2014. If they stumbled at all... Mike Francessa would again call for the team to be broken up.

2012

Lineup:
1. Jordany Valdespin, 2B (L)
2. Ruben Tejada, SS (R)
3. Lucas Duda, RF (L)
4. Ike Davis, 1B (L)
5. Yasmani Grandal, C (S)
6. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, CF (L)
7. Zach Lutz, 3B (R)
8. Jason Bay, LF (R) [HE CAN'T BE TRADED]

Bench:
Josh Thole, C (L)
Nick Evans, Util (R)
Fernando Martinez, OF (L)
Josh Satin, IF (R)
Jason Pridie, OF (L)

Rotation:
1. Jon Niese, LHSP
2. Chris Young, RHSP
3. Dillon Gee, RHSP
4. Javier Vazquez, RHSP
5. Chris Schwinden, RHSP

Bullpen:
Bobby Parnell, RHRP
Pedro Beato, RHRP
Manny Acosta, RHRP
Tim Brydak, LHRP
D.J. Carrasco, RHRP
Daniel Herrera, LHRP
Josh Stinson, RHRP

2013

Lineup:
1. Matt Den Dekker, CF (L)
2. Reese Havens, 2B (L)
3. Yasmani Grandal, C (S)
4. Ike Davis, 1B (L)
5. Lucas Duda, RF (L)
6. Zach Lutz, 3B (R)
7. Stephen Drew, SS (L)
8. Jason Bay, LF (R)

Bench:
Josh Thole, C (L)
Nick Evans, Util (R)
Fernando Martinez, OF (L)
Jordany Valdespin, IF (R)
Kirk Nieuwenhuis, CF (L)

Rotation:
1. Matt Harvey, RHSP
2. Jon Niese, LHSP
3. Cole Hamels, LHSP
4. Jenrry Mejia, RHSP
5. Colin McHugh, RHSP

Bullpen:
Jeurys Familia, RHRP
Bobby Parnell, RHRP
Pedro Beato, RHRP
Manny Acosta, RHRP
Daniel Herrera, LHRP
Josh Stinson, RHRP
Robert Carson, LHRP

The Great Jose Debate Begins

Now that the season is over, the batting title is won and the team looks towards 2012, you are going to hear the name Jose Reyes A LOT. Jose was the BEST player on the Mets in 2011. Sure... Carlos Beltran had a GREAT start to the year and may have landed the Mets with a future Ace, but Jose was the brightest star.

I read a very good article in the NY Post on Jose and how the Mets are in a Lose/Lose scenario with Reyes in terms of bidding. We've heard it all before:

• He's injury prone
• He's the spark plug of the offense
• He's already lost a step
• He's one of the most POPULAR players with the fans
• The Wilpons are cheap
• The Wilpons don't want to appear cheap
• Alderson doesn't like long contracts
• He's home grown.
• We obviously can't keep him
• We obviously can't let him go

A 2012 WITH Reyes:

Glass Half Full: The Mets sign Reyes for 6 years and $105 Mil. Reyes does start 95% of the games and has a good year. The pitching, led by Johan Santana and Jon Niese, holds strong and the Mets win the division with healthy batting out-put from Reyes, Wright, Davis and Jason Bay. Matt Harvey is called up in September and surges to a great opening display, and will be the #3 pitcher in the playoff rotation.

Glass Half Empty: The Mets are forced to offer Reyes 6 years and a vesting option for a 7th. Reyes has an okay year but is hobbled before the All-Star break and starts only 65% of the games. David Wright continues to be hot and cold while Jason Bay is benched in favor Fernando Martinez. The team finishes 5th in the division as the Nationals promote Bryce Harper and surge ahead.

A 2012 WITHOUT Reyes:

Glass Half Full: The Mets watch Jose Reyes leave and use the money they would have spent on Reyes signing Yu Darvish. Meanwhile Ruben Tejada is given the job at SS and Reese Havens wins the starting 2B job in spring training. The story of the year is how the Mets are on the rise as Darvish sparkles and Havens earns an All-Star selection in his first year. Harvey joins the team in late September and the Met 2013 future looks bright.

Glass Half Empty: Not only DON'T the Mets sign Reyes but they fail to land a single legit star. Attendance dwindles and David Wright announces to the media that he would like to be traded. To make matters worse, Johan Santana doesn't pitch a single inning and the team is completely out of the playoff race by Mid-June. Harvey and Familia both get promoted but struggle under the pressure of being looked on as saviors.

Right... so... probably something in the middle of those scenarios either way it shakes out. Here is the basic gist. The Mets sign Reyes, they WILL pay too much. The Mets don't sign Reyes, they get two picks and become the laughing stock of the big-market teams (losing countless fans). I love Reyes as a fan but I love the Mets too and want them to win.

Frankly I don't envy Alderson's position...

Yet Another Alternate Approach

So far...

Plan A: Resign Reyes AND Sign Sabathia, Wilson or Darvish

While this might cost more money than anyone is willing to believe the Wilpon's would invest, it also is the simplest. You maintain the hitting talent on the team establish a new anchor for the rotation and have the base in place for the emergence of Generation 2K in 2013 and 2014.

Plan B: Trade Davis for Pitching and Sign Albert Pujols

People doubt the ability to trade Davis for a TOP pitcher and I agree to an extent, but with his low price tag and some players like Kershaw and Price rapidly losing their status as "bargains" it's not OUT OF THE QUESTION. Then, of course, the Mets are replacing the fans lost by parting with Reyes with Pujols frenzy. At least the team is changing the field's dimensions so getting a slugger is no longer impossible.

Plan C: Sign Reyes and Trade David Wright

Most ways that this option gets cut, the Mets end up with a bevy of prospects and a dismal 2012. That isn't the end of the world. The Mets HAVE talent working its way rapidly to the majors and getting more would increase the chances of finding success when they do.

So... now I have to come up with a Plan D. I suppose this will be easier than Plan E and F etc... but it's becoming a bit daunting. So I'm going to go with something that is hardly revolutionary.

Step One: Remains re-signing Reyes. The kid (can I call him that? Probably not legitimately) means too much to the team and its fans to replace. It sures up the front of the Met lineup and means that the speedy 1, 2, 3 of Reyes, Pagan and Wright is still in place. It also means not having to replace Reyes from a free agent scrap-heap or through a not-so-amazin' farm system of SS's.

Step Two: Closers Closers Closers
I like Bobby Parnell... but I can't tell you that I'm confident he'll EVER be the closer of the future for the Mets. He's got stuff and that is great, but without confidence it doesn't have meaning and that is what counts. So... as Alderson may have indicated already, I think the Mets spend some bank on getting a closer. Now... the first name I list in this capacity is familiar. Heath Bell: he's solid, has a history with the Mets and hasn't exactly looked like much of a "FLUKE" pitching for San Diego. Frankly... Bell scares me, he just seems like the kind of guy who will succeed EVERYWHERE but Queens. I don't have a rational reason for thinking this. So... that brings us to the NEXT option. Jonathan Papelbon: He's a big flashy name who has had success on a BIG-MARKET team and knows about performing on a big stage. He'll come with an unfortunate price tag, but we can't do much about that. There are other closers who would work: "The Return of" Francisco Rodriguez, Matt Capps, Brad Lidge, Francisco Cordero, Frank Francisco etc... Getting a closer shouldn't be hard but that isn't all I want the Mets to do.


If the Mets can't afford to improve their rotation in a significant way... we NEED to have one of the best darned pens in baseball. That means signing a big impact bullpen arm. For THAT job, I nominate Jonathan Broxton. I once had Broxton as the #1 fantasy closer... I suppose I had Gagne there too. I don't believe Broxton will be given the chance to close for a new team, but I DO believe he'll get a decent contract. I'm willing to have that team be the Mets because if we need to toss Big Pelf out there once every 5 games... I want to have guys who can get me through, not only the 8th and 9th but the 7th, 6th... and even 5th. (I have a lot of faith in our starters... don't I?)

Lineup:
1. Jose Reyes, SS (S)
2. Angel Pagan, CF (S)
3. David Wright, 3B (R)
4. Ike Davis, 1B (L)
5. Jason Bay, LF (R)
6. Lucas Duda, RF (L)
7. Josh Thole, C (L)
8. Ruben Tejada, 2B (R)

Bench:
Ronny Paulino, C (R)
Fernando Martinez, OF (L)
Daniel Murphy, Util (L)
Justin Turner, IF (R)
Nick Evans, Util (R)

Rotation:
Johan Santana, LHSP
Jon Niese, LHSP
R.A. Dickey, RHSP
Mike Pelfrey, RHSP
Dillon Gee, RHSP

Bullpen:
Heath Bell, RHRP
Jonathan Broxton, RHRP
Bobby Parnell, RHRP
Manny Acosta, RHRP
Pedro Beato, RHRP
Tim Byrdak, LHRP
Daniel Herrera, LHRP

This is my least favorite option thus far and I'm sure that you can see why. This team is not a fortuitous improvement over the 2011 Mets. ALTHOUGH... if Davis and Wright stay healthy all season and Jason Bay can continue some of the late season hitting he's shown then maybe it's all the Mets need. With Farvey and Familia potentially available for mid-late season call-ups and Collin McHugh and Chris Schwinden ready replacements for injuries... maybe all the Mets NEED is a little more gas in the bullpen tank.

An Alternate Approach

What if I were to suggest the Mets start their offseason... NOT signing Jose Reyes? GASP! What? But... He's Jose! We LOVE Jose! YOU love Jose! How could you? Well... I'm just trying to think pragmatically about what is available and what is easier/harder to find through free agency. For instance is it more or less hard to find a leadoff hitter, or a middle of the order guy?

I've already given you all my Plan A: Sign Reyes and Win Posting Rights/Sign Yu Darvish. I think the plan would make me and most Met fans a touch more optimistic about the 2012 season and beyond. HOWEVER... I'm going to be working hard to come up with some other plans that might involve thinking outside the box a little more.

Step 1: Buy the Biggest Impact Bat Out There
Albert Pujols is in his low 30s and still likely to be among the top 5 players in the game for the next... 5 years? Let's ignore that the Mets are not a likely landing zone, the Cardinals are likely to retain him and that he'll cost a good deal MORE than Jose Reyes. If the Mets sign Pujols and not Reyes... their roster's overall hitting takes a hefty up-tick. It does add the SLIGHT problem of then not having a spot for our dear friend Ike Davis to play. Not to worry, I found him one... though some fans may not like it.

Step 2: Trade Ike Davis to the Tampa Bay Rays
It hurts to trade home-grown talent. ESPECIALLY cheap and productive talent like Davis but you need to understand the market with trades. The Rays are not a wealthy team and a player, like Davis would be valuable as much for his bad as for his low contract. The big piece I'm asking for is just as cherished by the Rays. David Price is 26, he's a lefty and he's DANG good. Why in the world would the Rays trade Price? Well... Price's price tag is about to be on the rise... and quickly. His FIRST arbitration is supposed to exceed all other first arbitration cases thus far... (Kershaw's will be higher still). ALSO, the Rays have a pretty well-stocked system in regards to pitching and Davis fills one of their problem areas cheaply and effectively. Now... if I'm the Mets I'm including another prospect with Davis for a prospect back from the Rays. (Ike Davis + Zack Wheeler for David Price + Tim Beckham or something similar) The Mets would target Tim Beckham or Hak Ju Lee (The Rays top SS prospects) in an effort to replace the void left by Jose's departure. This would give Mets a better chance of developing a useful MLB talent between Tejada, Valdespin and the player we acquired.

By doing this, the Met payroll STILL winds up being around $110-120 Million Dollars and the team... at least on paper, seems to be a touch more potent. (Overall) We might lose a pitcher from our AA stock-pile in the trade with Tampa but we get deeper at a position where our options are limited and

Lineup:
1. Angel Pagan, CF (S)
2. Reese Havens, 2B (L)
3. Albert Pujols, 1B (R)
4. Lucas Duda, RF (L)
5. David Wright, 3B (R)
6. Jason Bay, LF (R)
7. Josh Thole, C (L)
8. Ruben Tejada, SS (R)

Bench:
Ronny Paulino, C (R)
Fernando Martinez, OF (L)
Daniel Murphy, Util (L)
Justin Turner, IF (R)
Joshua Satin, IF (R)

Rotation:
1. David Price, LHSP
2. Johan Santana, LHSP
3. Jonathan Niese, LHSP
4. R.A. Dickey, RHSP
5. Dillon Gee, RHSP

Bullpen:
Bobby Parnell, RHRP
Pedro Beato, RHRP
Taylor Buchholz, RHRP
Manny Acosta, RHRP
D.J. Carrasco, RHRP
Josh Stinson, RHRP
Daniel Herrera, LHRP

Now... I'm not saying this is the right approach. I'm just looking for alternate plans. With this plan we have Pujols' bat in the heart of our order, Price at the front of the rotation and Valdespin and Beckham in the minors as a long-term solution for SS.