Baseball – Travis D’Arnaud, Gino Cimoli, Josh Hamilton, Drew Pomeranz

Travis D’Arnaud (Blue Jays): If you’re looking at the best “real baseball” prospect, I’d have him at the top of the list. For fantasy purposes, I have him here because J.P. Arencibia currently holds the position in Toronto, and I don’t think the organization is in any hurry to get him to the majors (if Brett Lawrie’s 2011 is any indication). Still though, his tools are loud, so whenever he gets consistent playing time, D’Arnaud will be a strong candidate to join the top tier of fantasy catchers. http://www.minorleaguerundown.com/2012/01/24/top-10-minor-league-fantasy-catchers-for-2012/

Gino Cimoli (b. 1929) was a star high school player in San Francisco (Galileo H.S.).  He was the first batter in the first Major League Game played on the west coast when, playing for the Dodgers, he led off the inaugural game against the Giants at Seals Stadium.  (Ruben Gomez struck him out.)  In 1960, as a Pirate, he contributed to their World Series win over the Yankees. http://fairandunbalancedblog.blogspot.com/2012/01/baseball-losses-in-2011.html  

Hamilton’s story has been well documented. He was a Baseball prodigy, a teenager who could do anything on the field. He could hit, hit for power, play defense, throw out runners, and run. He was going to be better than Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, and Babe Ruth. He was going to be the one to lead the Tampa Bay Devil Rays out of basement all by himself. He was the first pick of the 1999 draft. He was the number one prospect in Baseball. He was the one. Then, the addiction took over. It took over in ways that most can’t even imagine. He gave glimpses of his talent, but something was off. He got in trouble, and by 2002, he was out of Baseball. He would serve as the cautionary tale of what happens when an athlete is given too much, too soon. His name would be thrown around as the example of a great player never realizing his talent because he got caught up in drugs. High School coaches all over America lectured their players about the dangers of life and how Josh Hamilton threw it all away. Mantle may have struggled with alcohol and it may have stunted his growth as a player, but it never took him off of the field. Hamilton’s addiction almost cost him everything. Hamilton’s addiction looks like it will always haunt him. http://www.baseballdigest.com/2012/02/07/our-mantle-and-our-hope/

One of the primary pieces in the Ubaldo Jimenez trade, Drew Pomeranz is often mentioned as one of the better pitching prospects in baseball. There is indeed a lot to like, but I have a hard time seeing top of the rotation upside. Pomeranz captured the ace role early in his career at Ole Miss and was ridden heavily; his delivery and workload left many questioning whether he could remain healthy. Aside from a pectoral strain during his junior year, that has been a non-issue. Indeed, his arm action looks a bit cleaner than it did in college, and his large, well developed frame portends well for his future durability. The delivery is still on the deceptive side, but that is a factor in his favor as the fastball is merely average – it sits 88-91 with a touch of sink. Despite its uneventful life and velocity, it tends to get on hitters quickly, leading to less-than-square contact when kept low in the zone. When elevated, it does miss a few more bats but also leads to harder, fly ball oriented contact. His changeup is more of a slow fastball (81-85 MPH), and is merely a "show me" pitch at this point. The curve ball has always been his true weapon – the only one that will consistently result in empty swings. It is firm (high 70s) with excellent shape and sharp late break. It is primarily buried in the dirt as a chase pitch late in the count; the swings on it can get ugly. With solid-to-good command, Pomeranz uses the fastball liberally, moving the ball in and out very well. The aggressiveness with which he attacks the zone, in combination with the facility in which contact on the fastball is made, allows Pomeranz to efficiently consume innings. There is plenty of value here as he is one of the better bets to turn into an average MLB starter, but the fastball and changeup just aren't good enough for me to project him as much more than that. http://www.bullpenbanter.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=557%3A2012-top-100-31-drew-pomeranz&catid=21%3A2012-top-prospects-write-ups&Itemid=5&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+bullpenbanter+%28Bullpen+Banter%29

Baseball: Taijuan Walker, Drew Pomeranz, A.J. Burnett, Carlos Pena, Cory Hahn

Taijuan Walker, Mariners: With the way Walker pitched in his first full season, the Mariners will quickly forget they didn't have a first-round pick in 2010. The SoCal high school product was a multi-sport star and, as a result, is really focusing on pitching full-time for the first time as a professional. So far, so good, as Walker has been dominant as the Mariners have been cautious with him up until this point. The stuff is there, with a mid-to-high 90s fastball and excellent curve. His changeup is rapidly improving. That three-pitch mix, his size and athleticism could all add up to a frontline starter in the future. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120112&content_id=26330142&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb&tcid=tw_article_26330142

Drew Pomeranz, Rockies: The tail end of the 2011 season was a whirlwind for Pomeranz. As the player-to-be-named in the Ubaldo Jimenez Trade Deadline deal with Cleveland, he sat in limbo for a long stretch, unable to pitch, waiting for his part of the trade to be completed. Then he had to have his appendix removed. Despite all that, he pitched very well for the Rockies and earned his first callup to the big leagues, throwing five shutout innings in his debut. When fully healthy, he has a plus fastball and curve. His changeup isn't quite as good, but it's still an effective pitch. If the former Ole Miss southpaw commands the ball the way he did in the big leagues late last year -- that had been an issue for him in the past -- he'll be just fine, and he should get a long look for a rotation spot this spring. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120113&content_id=26339048&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb&tcid=tw_article_26339048

It seems as if the Yankees are determined to get rid of A.J. Burnett has they have been getting the word out ever since the Michael Pineda-Jesus Montero swap that they would love to deal him, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN. Start reports that the Yankees would prefer to take on somebodies bad contract rather than eat Burnett’s salary, but there aren’t many comparable options out there. Jason Bay of the Mets may be the best fit if teams are looking to just swap bad contracts. Burnett is owed $33 million over two years while Bay is owed $32 million over the same time period. Alfonso Soriano and Adam Dunn are two other names that have been thrown around as possibilities, but both have contracts that extend beyond 2014 which pretty much kills those possibilities. http://bronxbaseballdaily.com/2012/01/rumor-yankees-continue-to-shop-a-j-burnett/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Carlos Pena was, of course, a member of the worst-to-first 2008 Rays (not Devil Rays, that’ll cost you). That club won 97 games, Tampa Bay’s first ever American League East title, Tampa Bay’s first ever playoff series, and Tampa Bay’s first American League Championship, all just a year after Pena and his .430 wOBA could only power the team to a 66-96 campaign. He was also there for 2010, the Rays’ second division championship, but that team’s success was almost despite him. Pena still provided his trademark power, slugging 28 home runs, but his strikeout problems and a sharp dip in BABIP led to just a .196 batting average and a .326 wOBA. Between the failures of 2010 and his contractual demands — he sought and eventually received eight figures on a one-year deal — Pena and the Rays diverged for the 2010 season. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/carlos-pena-returns-to-the-trop/

Cory Hahn made his way down the third base line of El Dorado Field to home plate with the assistance of his father, Dale, late Saturday afternoon. The crowd at El Dorado High School greeted him with a standing ovation. After all, he is the main attraction. "He's a star now," said former Los Angeles Angels announcer Rex Hudler. "He's got a chance to encourage a lot of people – more than he would if he were a ballplayer." The former Mater Dei baseball star was the guest of honor as a who's who of Orange County baseball sluggers took part in the 1st Annual Trinity Bat Company Home Run Challenge. Proceeds from the charity event were donated to the Cory Hahn Fund. High schoolers, minor leaguers and major leaguers, including Angels catcher Hank Conger and first baseman Mark Trumbo, attended. However, Trumbo didn't participate while still recovering from a stress fracture in his right foot.  http://www.foxsportswest.com/01/21/12/Hahn-inspiring-beyond-baseball/landing_angels.html?blockID=650944&feedID=9174

The NY Met Bottom-Up Plan

Build from the ground up sounds like such logic that HOW could anyone try to build any other way. In pro sports, it's often the OTHER way around. My favorite example of this is the Miami Heat. Start with several ELITE ELITE talents... and then surround them with whatever is available. Championship GUARANTEED... WRONG! You want a team that build's from the bottom... look at a team like the Florida Marlins.

Florida's system of growing their talent in the farm and then making a BIG splash in free agency every 4-7 years is brilliant. You build the base of your team from within, then when you are on the rise you go out and buy that top tier talent to put you over the edge. If you look at the image above... you can see very easily the hazards of getting the big name (big PAY CHECK) players first.

The NY Met Bottom-Up Plan:

Step 1: Protect The Farm
If Seattle contacted Sandy Alderson today and offered Felix Hernandez for 4 of our top prospects... you have to believe it would be tempting. Felix is YOUNG and proven and guys we'd be trading like Wheeler, Harvey, Familia and Mejia could all FLOP in the majors. Here's the issue: King Felix has been in the league long enough to have earned a serious pay check. That check will only get bigger for the next 5-7 years. Trading for... and retaining a player like Felix Hernandez would cripple the finances of the team and seriously deplete our prospect pool. Are we building? GOOD, then our prospects are off limits unless we're trading for... well... prospects.

Step 2: Spend Wisely
Ordinarily you might have someone who is looking at a rebuild plan start with EXTREME fiscal responsibility. The Mets... despite what the media says... are NOT 4-5 years from competing. I would say 2012 is a pretty immense long-shot but 2013 and 2014 are not out of the question because of the crop of talent building in the farm. SO... what does this mean? Bluntly? It means we should sign Reyes. Ruben Tejada is not enough of a bat (at least until we have one like Havens on second), Valdespin doesn't look ready and all other free agents are pretty steep downgrades. So... getting Reyes, who is already loved by fans, likes New York and has succeeded there, is good business sense. We'd be signing Reyes to be our 2013 (and beyond) SS.

UPDATE: Since the Marlins have become SUPER-STRONG competitors for Jose Reyes the Mets NEED to up their game. The only thing worse than losing Reyes for a pair of picks is losing Reyes to a team that doesn't even give up a first rounder. Because the Marlin's 1st round pick is protected Alderson needs to UP his threshold. I'd be less upset if he landed in Philly. Despite what the media might say, NOTHING is written in stone and if the Mets wanted to make an offer to top the Marlins they COULD retain Reyes.

Step 3: Swallow Your Pride
I love David Wright (as a fan). He's my favorite player in baseball and he's on my favorite team. If the right offer came along, we're talking about Drew Pomeranz + two other top prospects, then I support the Mets making that move.

WAIT A MINUTE!!!

One second ago we kept Reyes because he was the best we could possibly do at that position for a couple of years. We're not going to get anyone remotely as good as David Wright for 2012, 2013 or 2014. Well... you're right. We're not. The difference is we have players who can man third and put up reasonable numbers. Daniel Murphy or Zach Lutz (Or BOTH!) could step in for 2012 and perhaps longer while players like Nolan Arenado (Hey... we traded Wright for him in this scenario), Jefry Marte, Wilmer Flores and Aderlin Rodriguez progress in the minors.

Step 4: Find Something To Love
2012 could be a long year, but giving up on the team doesn't exactly help the team to continue to improve. It may be enough to go to the ball park to watch Jeurys Familia or Kirk Nieuwenhuis, just to see what the kids are capable of. It might be enough to see a resurgent Johan Santana... or an emerging talent like Ike Davis. Whatever it is... fans can actually help a team rebuilding by going out to support it. That brings in revenue for the team and who knows... by 2013 the Mets could be ready to get that payroll back to the levels that we all believe a New York ball club should have.

Moving On Without Reyes and Wright - PART 1

*I began this as one post encompassing the next 18 months, however it proved to be too long and I felt it would be better split into three parts. This is Part 1, dealing with the groundwork moves this winter that can take the Mets through the 2012 season and put them in a position to finish constructing a playoff-contending team in 2013, one with the potential for sustained success going forward.

With the World Series ending soon, baseball’s third season is about to begin. The excitement of the hot stove doesn’t replace the excitement and hope that comes with watching an actual pennant race, but it does offer some distraction in the months between seasons as well as fuel fans’ hopes for the next year to come.

This offseason is the first real one for the Mets’ vaunted front office. Last year was as much about evaluating the talent in-house and cutting whatever dead weight they could. This winter is the first true test to see what the long-term plan for the franchise is. The deadline deals gave us a preview of Sandy Alderson’s thinking. It seems to be that he’ll look to maximize his tradable assets (Beltran for Wheeler) and remove whatever contracts he feels are weighing the team down (K Rod for nothing).

Alderson’s biggest questions surround homegrown stars Jose Reyes and David Wright. With payroll concerns, Reyes possibly pricing himself out of range, a lack of free agent options and little depth to trade from, the prospects for making a dramatic improvement over last year are slim. Because of this, the Mets might be thinking on cutting bait on the last era and starting over from scratch – letting someone else pay Jose his dream contract, collect the compensatory draft picks, and move Wright while the team still can, increasing their base of minor league talent. I’m in no way advocating letting Reyes walk or trading Wright.

What I’m aiming to do is present at least one path the team can take in the event that both of those things happen. I talk to fans and read posts and the consensus (read:fear) seems to be that if both leave the team this offseason, the Mets will be set back indefinitely, not to compete for the playoffs for years to come. I’m arguing that if they both leave the Mets, the team will have added flexibility and can find a way to win sooner rather than later, competing for a playoff spot in 2013. That’s with only 1 more year of ‘suffering’ to go through.

With that in mind, I would expect any moves made this offseason to either strengthen the team for the long run OR not hinder their flexibility in making future moves. The 2011-12 offseason could unfold like this:

- Jose Reyes leaves as a FA.

This move allows the Mets more room in their budget and nets the team 2 high draft picks. Ruben Tejada takes over as the starting SS and hits leadoff for the time being.

- David Wright is traded to Colorado for Drew Pomeranz, Nolan Arenado, and Rex Brothers.

I’ve analyzed this hypothetical deal here - http://tinyurl.com/roxwright. Pomeranz starts 2012 at Buffalo, Arenado begins at Binghamton, and Brothers begins the year in the ML bullpen.

- Trade Wilmer Flores, Cesar Puello, Jefry Marte, Robert Carson for Yasmani Grandal and Bronson Arroyo

With apologies to Josh Thole, the Mets do not have a catcher in their organization who profiles as a long-term major league catcher. While I think a tandem of Thole and a veteran can hold down the fort in 2012, the Mets need a catcher who can be relied on to be part of the core going forward. The options on the free agent market are disappointing and I don’t think the Mets have the firepower to trade for an established franchise catcher. The team’s best bet would be to trade for a backstop with significant upside who is only a year or so away from the majors. The two players I would target are Travis d’Arnaud of Toronto and Yasmani Grandal of Cincinnati. Both players are highly regarded and both are currently playing in organizations with catching depth. Grandal figures to start 2012 in AAA after playing a few games there this past year. While he is a top prospect, he is currently behind Devin Mesoraco, a top 50 overall prospect in all of baseball who will likely begin next year as Cincy’s #1 catcher. d’Arnaud is similarly behind Arencibia in Toronto and also has pressure coming up from the lower levels in Carlos Perez and AJ Jimenez. Both profile as plus-defensive catchers who can hit for power. Of the two, d’Arnaud is already drawing rave reviews for his work behind the plate and for his handling of Toronto’s minor league pitchers. However, I think that Grandal will be the easier of the two to acquire. There have already been rumblings about his availability. The Reds have a limited window to compete with Joey Votto as the centerpiece of the team and might be more willing to deal while the Blue Jays are still putting their plan together and might see d’Arnaud as the true catcher of the future with Arencibia more of a DH. Given Cincy’s status as a small market team, I could see them moving Grandal for multiple pieces as well as looking to get salary relied from Arroyo’s contract, freeing them up to be more active this winter. Flores seems to be a man without a position whose bat still seems special. Puello has all the tools to become a starting ML OF with speed and pop. Marte continues his development and has been performing well in the AFL. He’d quickly become the heir apparent to Rolen in Cincy. Carson profiles as a solid LH relief pitcher. The Reds get out from under Arroyo’s contract, one that could hinder them as a small market team and one that the Mets can afford to take on for a year or two. The Reds also get 4 young players that can supplement the young talent they already have and given them a broader base to build from in the coming years. They won’t miss Grandal if Mesoraco fulfills his potential.

- Trade Bobby Parnell for Ryan Kalish

With the departure of Reyes, his presence is only half-accounted for, meaning that Ruben Tejada can hold down SS, however they will need someone who can hit leadoff. Tejada looks like he can be a productive #2 hitter, however I don’t think he has true leadoff hitter ability. Given the depth the Mets have at their infield positions, it seems that a leadoff solution will have to come from the OF. One team I would look to as a potential trade partner is the Boston Red Sox. The Sox have a glut of OF’ers and not a lot of places to play them. Ellsbury has secured CF for the foreseeable future and it doesn’t look like LF Carl Crawford will be traded anytime soon. If the Red Sox are entertaining any ideas about dealing him, he’ll need at least a year to bounce back and build up his value. Even at that, his contract is prohibitive to any potential deal. That leaves only RF open. Josh Reddick came up last year and performed well for a couple of months. 2010’s surprise prospect Ryan Kalish also performed well in his cup of coffee. He likely would have gotten playing time this year if he hadn’t been injured. Although he recently underwent surgery, reports have him coming back and ready for spring training. Additionally, the Sox have their minor league POY Bryce Brentz not too far from the majors and are discussing OF prospects with the Cubs as compensation for Theo Epstein. With this many OF (potentially 4) prospects and 1 open OF spot, the Sox will be in position to shop them to see what kind of return can be had. I don’t know exactly what they might want in return, but the player I would target is Kalish. He has speed, plays hard, gets on base, hits leadoff, and can play CF. After Reddick’s performance and Kalish’s injury, he’s likely behind in the depth chart. As Parnell is the talent that is asked about the most by other teams, I think the Red Sox would be happy to add a pitcher who can hit 100mph on the gun. I don’t believe Parnell will be the closer here in NY, so the Mets should get what they can for him while his is in demand. This type of trade might have to happen in ST or even April or May to see how quickly Kalish recovers, however he can fill a number of holes for the Mets and would be a great fit going forward. I would expect him to begin 2012 at AAA.

Whether Grandal and Kalish are the specific acquisitions or not, the Mets have holes at OF/leadoff and Ca that need to be addressed. It would be prudent to look for long-term options now rather than wait until the team is ready to contend and wind up overpaying for whatever is available when they are in need. I would like to see the team proactively fill these positions now for the future.

- Retain Angel Pagan.

There aren’t a lot of options out there that can play CF and if 2012 is a ‘sit tight’ season, I don’t see any reason to get rid of Pagan IF Reyes and Wright aren’t around. With all of the savings in payroll, the Mets might as well go with what they know for now until a long-term replacement is found. If the Mets trade for Kalish (or another leadoff prospect), Pagan can hold down CF until the rookie is ready.

- Trade Mike Pelfrey

I think it’s time to move on here. Pelfrey is what he is, and while that’s not terrible, it’s not great. Every year the Mets wait to trade him his value seems to go lower. With Pomeranz acquired in trade and Niese, Gee, and Arroyo on the roster, there is no need to keep Pelfrey. The Mets can sign a risky vet to a much lower contract and expect the same production. As has been repeated, Pelf can throw 200 innings and there are likely to be teams that value that production. Moving him for whatever young talent can be had is the way to go.

That leaves the main 13 of the lineup as:

1. Tejada SS (0.5)

2. Murphy 3B (0.5)

3. Duda RF (0.5)

4. Bay LF (16)

5. Davis 1B (0.5)

6. Pagan CF (5)

7. Thole Ca (0.5)

8. Turner 2B (0.5)

SP1 Santana (25)

SP2 Dickey (4.25)

SP3 Niese (0.5)

SP4 Arroyo (7)

SP5 Gee (0.5)

This would put the budget at roughly $62M, leaving a lot of room to add a closer and other complimentary bench/bullpen pieces as the FO sees fit. This team would likely not make the playoffs, however there is talent on the roster that can play competitive baseball and could surprise people. Also, keep in mind that this is how the team would look on opening day. With the young talent in the minors on its way up, there could be a much different look to the team once August rolls around and the trade deadline passes.

In Part 2, I’ll go over how I would expect the team to handle the roster during the 2012 season, developing the young talent in-house and in preparation for the next offseason.

Wright To Colorado, RIGHT For Mets?

So... you might have noticed some additional news items relating to Colorado. This all dates back to rumors that the Rockies were "Very Interested" in David Wright. Being interested and negotiating are two different things but I'm feeling more and more like the teams might be getting closer to negotiating a trade than we might think.

First Things First:
I'm going to state this as simply as I can. If Colorado is not ready to give Drew Pomeranz and Nolan Arenado in the same deal for Wright, the Mets NEED to walk away. NEED NEED NEED.

For The Wright Fans:
I'm a David Wright fan. He is my favorite player in baseball and it will hurt deeply if the Mets were to trade him away. Just remember that David Wright could get you THREE or MORE players who could all have Wright-Sized impacts on the team. The flip-side being... they could each never have ANY positive impact on the team. It's a risk, but in terms probability it's also more likely that with 3-4 guys you'll have more impact help than with 1. Add to this the HUGE financial splash

Also, the Mets would go from having one of the MOST depleted farms in baseball to something rivaling the recent Tampa Bay. For a team that, when good, will make a good deal of money the Wilpons will be set to rake in good profits from 2013 on for a solid run of a decade or longer.

What We'd Be Getting:
Any offer from Colorado NEEDS to start with Drew Pomeranz... at least, if they want David Wright it does. The young lefty and potential Ace will be the hardest jewel to pry from Colorado, but I think the Mets can and WOULD. After Drew you can look at Nolan Arenado (3rd Base Prospect) who has a good eye and lots of power. He'll start 2012 in AA but is likely on track to debut in the majors as soon as 2013.

Then... it gets hazy. You COULD try and get Wilin Rosario. I try to, but if he can't be included it doesn't break the deal. I'd prefer at lease one more NON-Pitching prospect in the deal no matter what.

The Reyes Question:
If Wright goes, what do the Mets do with Reyes?

A) The Mets are CLEARLY rebuilding and they don't need to spend money on Reyes when the team is going to finish dismally in 2012.

B) The Met 2012 might look bleak but they should be ready in 2013 and there are NO top SS's in the organizational depth chart. Reyes has plenty of value for 2013 and beyond.

So... I don't know what the Mets would do... could go either way.

What Does This Wrightless Future Look Like?

2012 Team:

C: Josh Thole (Perhaps Wilin Rosario via trade)
1B: Ike Davis (WOW! A position without drama)
2B: Jordany Valdespin (Havens is around the corner)
SS: Ruben Tejada (When Havens is ready the battle for SS begins)
3B: Zach Lutz (Turner and Satin are in the mix)
LF: Jason Bay (I think he will be downgraded/benched/dropped before 2013)
CF: Angel Pagan (Trade Deadline departure and debut of Matt Den Dekker)
RF: Lucas Duda (Fernando Martinez and Kirk Nieuwenhuis wait in the wings)

SP1: R.A. Dickey (He's not a #1 pitcher but he's OURs... for now)
SP2: Jon Niese (He's #2 to protect his confidence)
SP3: Dillon Gee (Expect Harvey, Familia or Mejia to take this spot by mid-June)
SP4: Drew Pomeranz (Assuming he's in the deal he's the best on the staff)
SP5: Chris Schwinden (Expect one of the other prospects or Gee by late June)

CL: Jonathan Broxton (Wow! We signed a free agent?)
SU: Bobby Parnell (We WON'T stop trying to get him over the hump)
SU: Pedro Beato (Feels like he has better stuff than Acosta)
MR: Manny Acosta (Will be the MOST USED reliever in baseball)
MR: Tim Byrdak (He's going to be our top lefty until the deadline)
MR: Daniel Herrera (We NEED to have two lefties on the bullpen)
LR: D.J. Carrasco (We'll trade him if and when we can)

2013 Team:

C: Wilin Rosario
1B: Ike Davis
2B: Reese Havens
SS: Jordany Valdespin
3B: Nolan Arenado
LF: Kirk Niewenhuis
CF: Matt Den Dekker
RF: Fernando Martinez (Lucas Duda could just be THAT good and still be here)

SP1: Matt Harvey
SP2: Drew Pomeranz
SP3: Jenrry Mejia
SP4: Jon Niese
SP5: Colin McHugh

CL: Jeurys Familia
SU: Bobby Parnell
SU: Jonathan Broxton
MR: Manny Acosta
MR: Pedro Beato
MR: Daniel Herrera
LR: Mark Cohoon

2014 Team:

C: Wilin Rosario
1B: Ike Davis
2B: Reese Havens
SS: Jordany Valdespin
3B: Nolan Arenado
LF: Cory Vaughn
CF: Brandon Nimmo
RF: Cesar Puello

SP1: Matt Harvey
SP2: Drew Pomeranz
SP3: Jenrry Mejia
SP4: Jon Niese
SP5: Zack Wheeler

CL: Jeurys Familia
SU: Josh Edgin
SU: Jesse Leathersich
MR: Colin McHugh
MR: Pedro Beato
MR: Daniel Herrera
LR: Darrin Gorski

Some Names To Learn:

Full Name: Thomas Andrew Pomeranz

Born: 11/22/1988

Birthplace: Memphis, TN

College: Mississippi

Height: 6' 5"

Weight: 230

Bats: R

Throws: L

Scouting:

Pomeranz is a big, physical, strong, durable starter with a power three pitch mix of a fastball, curveball, and changeup. His fastball sits comfortably at 91-94 MPH and touches 95 MPH, and shows good swing and miss ability. His fastball is explosive through the zone and he is aggressive with it going right after hitters, especially on the hands of right-handers. Hitters often have a hard time tracking his fastball because it gets in on them quicker due to some good deception in his delivery, late life, and movement. He shows solid average command of his fastball and works it well to both sides of the plate.

Pomeranz’s plus-plus 12-6 knuckle curveball may be his best pitch as it has good, sharp downward bite and was considered one of the best secondary offerings in all of the 2010 Draft. It is another swing and miss type pitch in his arsenal, and he holds it with the same grip that left-hander Cliff Lee does. He rarely threw his changeup in college since he was mostly a fastball-curveball guy so it is a below average pitch for him at the moment, but he shows a good feel for it and it has the potential to at least be an average pitch if not more.

Pomeranz has a loose, low effort delivery and gets a good downward plane on his pitches. He gets a lot of swing and misses with his pitches, and uses his fastball to overpower hitters and mixes in his curveball well to keep them off balance. He is a workhorse, and his velocity and stuff holds up well late in games. He is a fierce competitor on the mound who is mature, controls his emotions well, and is very focused. He has an intimidating presence on the mound, and is unwavered even in the tightest spots and does not let the game speed up on him when things are not going well. Because of his ability to keep cool and collected along with some great performances in big games in the past he has established a reputation as being a big game pitcher.

My Two Cents: A lefty with this kind of body, that kind of fastball and a KNUCKLE CURVE... is not something that comes along every day. Let us remember also that Pomeranz has also gotten his feet wet in the majors. Now... my bet is that Colorado will do EVERYTHING in their power to keep Drew off the table in a trade, but if I'm trading away my teams BEST player, I feel that I have the right to DEMAND the other team's BEST prospect.

Full Name: Nolan J. Arenado

Born: 04/16/1991

Birthplace: Newport Beach, CA

Height: 6' 1"

Weight: 205

Bats: R

Throws: R


Scouting:

Physique & Athleticism: Listed at 6’2″, 205 lbs., he looked a couple of inches shorter in uniform which might be explained by his thick lower half and high socks. That look can often leave a player looking shorter than he actually is. With a thick lower half, Arenado is all lower body. His upper half is not developed at this point, but his broad shoulders and muscular forearms leave plenty of room for projection. A below-average runner, he’s built for power, not speed. Arenado’s movements were smooth at the plate, but his footwork left plenty to be desired in the field. In fact, it was so awkward the first impression left was that of a prospect destined for first base or left field. However, he did his best to sway my initial observation as he made up for his lack of footwork with a number of difficult plays and accurate throws across the diamond.

Hitting: Make no mistake, Arenado’s bat is going to have to carry him to Colorado. His in-game power is below only a handful of players I have seen at the level. He consistently drove the baseball hard into the gaps throughout the series leading to multiple extra base hits and a couple of fly balls which reached the warning track. As he adds pull side power, his home run totals should really take off. The natural lift generated by Arenado’s swing is far beyond his years as the power tool is normally the last to develop. Arenado also has the bat speed to drive 90-91 MPH up in the zone. Unfortunately, the Sand Gnats staff is a soft-throwing group so seeing how any hitting prospect handles higher velocities is virtually impossible.

As for Arenado’s hitting mechanics, his pre-swing load could be quieter as he starts his hands just behind his ears and has to move them quite a bit to get into the hitting position. His legs start in a medium-wide stance and he features something close to a double-tap prior to his swing. Throughout the series, he consistently squared up on fastballs, but sometimes looked as if the extra movement in his swing threw off his timing some versus offspeed pitches. Never cheated, his approach was to hammer the first fastball over the plate and he was successful more often than not. Like Wilmer Flores, Arenado left me more impressed with his ability to make hard contact than his pitch-taking prowess. If you can detect a hint of sarcasm, it is because walk rates for teenagers at this level are relatively worthless for a player like Arenado who is going to have to mash his way to Colorado.

Defense: In game one of the series, Arenado took short, choppy steps to to get to balls and made an error on a routine grounder a step to his left. My initial reaction was to write him off as a third baseman, but he proceeded to play flawless defense showing the ability to react to hard hit balls, charge slow rollers, with an average, accurate throwing arm. Arenado has quite a bit of work to do to project as an average third baseman, but he has time, and makeup on his side.

Speed: Not much to discuss here in terms of stolen base ability, but he’s a smart, hard-working player who will do the little things well such as baserunning.

My Two Cents: I think if the question comes down to trading Wright, then the Mets NEED to acquire a prospect 3B in the deal. Arenado has a good amount of power and a GREAT eye at the plate. His major flaw vs. Wright is that he's not going to steal bases. He's in the AFL now which I take to put him slightly ahead of the AA curve.

Full Name: Wilin Rosario

Born: 02/23/1989

Birthplace: Bonao, Dominican Republic

Height: 5' 11"

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R


Scouting:

Jeff Reese (34): It may be foolhardy in the end, but I did not severely punish Wilin Rosario for tearing his ACL last August. I did move him down slightly in my rankings, but ultimately evaluated him on his talent alone. By all accounts, he is progressing well and could be back in time to participate in spring training. Others will be cautious, waiting to see Rosario make a full recovery first; I completely understand that point of view and see why they would choose to do so. Rosario's bat has the chance to be special if he can add a bit more patience to approach; he has plus power and the hand-eye coordination to hit for average. Rosario is a quality defensive catcher as well thanks to his plus-plus arm strength and good receiving skills. It's a pity that he got injured when he did as he was finally starting to gain widespread recognition as a premier prospect after the defensive display he put on at the Futures Game.

Al Skorupa (51): I don’t think it’s foolhardy at all. I really didn’t consider Rosario’s injury much in my ranking. BA had positive reports on his recovery a couple weeks back. [1] Personally, I have no real reservations that he won’t return to plus defense behind the plate. The thing that holds Rosario back for me is, as you mention, his patience. He’s walking a bit of a thin line in that category. If he regresses at all there he may be just a good defensive catcher who can hit some instead of a plus hitter and defender. He does strike out quite a bit. On the other hand, he’s only 21 years old. That’s another reason the ACL doesn’t bother me.

Michael Herrick (107): I'm very much the opposite of Al and Jeff here. While the preliminary reports on Rosario's knee sound good, until we see him catching full games 4-5 times a week, it's really hard to gauge if the ACL tear will have a long term effect on his defense. His defense is a major part of the attraction here, so I'll err on the side of caution. Al and Jeff both mention something else that worries me about Rosario, how much his patience (or lack thereof) could weigh down his offensive potential. There are just too many question marks for me to rank him in my top 100 at this point. A healthy showing in 2011 would move him up my list quickly.

My Two Cents: Rosario has power and that, in a catcher, is a nice bonus. Add that his glove etc... are ready for the majors and it's even nicer. I believe he could come to the Mets and immediately step ahead of Josh Thole on the depth chart.

Full Name: Alex Bruce White

Born: 08/29/1988

Birthplace: Greenville, NC

College: North Carolina

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 215

Bats: R

Throws: R

Scouting:

JD Sussman (73): During the majority his time at North Carolina, White was considered a consensus top pick for the 2009 draft. However, during his final college his stock plummeted due to concerns that his future was in the bullpen and a disappearing slider, likely costing him a few million dollars. While I was not one of them ranking him 91st last year, White has squelched his doubters thus far in his professional career. His repertoire has three above average offerings, two fastballs, a splitter, to go with the slider, which is still a work in progress. He doesn't miss bats at an elite rate (just 16.5% K/PA as a SP in 2010) but he has kept his walks manageable while inducing a lot of groundballs.

Al Skorupa (87): I'm just not a fan of White's sinker/splitter mix. Even if the slider continues to improve and becomes an average pitch, I question if he will consistently be able to throw it for strikes. White is solid, but strictly a middle of the rotation type for me. Between the two pitch power repertoire, shaky mechanics and inconsistency I can't help but think White fits better in the pen. I wouldn't be surprised to see him develop into a capable sinkerball starting pitcher, though.

Michael Herrick (72): I tend to agree with Al's assessment of White. I see a pretty sure fire MLB pitcher, but whether it's as an innings eating MOR starter or as a strong closer is the question. The dwindling K rate after his promotion to AA doesn't ease my concerns with him either. His profile reminds of former Indian Jake Westbrook. That's not a bad career to have, but probably not quite what many expect.

Jeff Reese (52): I don't consider myself crazy high on Alex White or anything, but I was easily the highest of the group. JD's evaluation is on point. While he doesn't miss a lot of bats, he does rack up the ground balls, making it easy to see him succeeding in the majors. He gives me a Derek Lowe type of vibe: slightly above-average, inning eating, ground ball inducing starting pitcher.

My Two Cents: Most of what I find on White refers to him as a secondary pitching prospect (leading me to believe he's a safe bet to be included in a deal). The big thing on White is that he was at one point "THE TOP PROSPECT" now he fits closer to a middle of the rotation projection.

Full Name: Chad Bettis

Born: 04/26/1989

Birthplace: Lubbock, TX

College: Texas Tech

Height: 6' 1"

Weight: 193

Bats: R

Throws: R

Scouting:

A dominant closer at Texas Tech, righthander Chad Bettis is exactly the right kind of pitcher to survive at Coors. He mixes a heavy and loose fastball with an effective mid-80's slider that prevents hitters from making square contact. His brief time in the minors to date has been no challenge at all, as Bettis has easily delivered a shimmering 1.07 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 67 career innings of work. (He's struck out 56 and walked only 13.) He still has to get over the hurdle of AA, but at this rate, he'll be banging on the bullpen door in Colorado by 2012.

Some Of The Others:

1. Tim Wheeler
2. Juan Nicasio
3. Tyler Matzek
4. Kyle Parker
5. Christian Friedrich
6. Charlie Blackmon
7. Tyler Anderson