Stephen Guilbert - 5 and Minors: Five Met Minor Leaguers Who Need to Have Big 2012 Seasons

5 and Minors: Five Met Minor Leaguers Who Need to Have Big 2012 Seasons


By - Stephen Guilbert

Wilmer Flores

Needs: A lot. Wilmer needs to prove that he can play defense sufficiently at third. He needs to start slugging like his frame suggests and he needs to prove his hitting ability against upper level pitching.

Last year: Flores has gone from being dubbed “the next Miguel Cabrera” to a prospect many think will be a first baseman without enough bat to ever stick at the position in the majors.

Stats: There are some positives from the 2011 season for Flores. He only struck out 68 times in 516 at bats as a 19 and 20-year-old in the Florida State League and his 81 RBI look nice on stat sheets as well. On the flip side, Flores walked only 27 times, hit .269 and without much power (.380 slugging). The power has to start improving as he gets older and matures as a hitter.

Position: Flores needs to prove that he can stick at third base. While Flores does not have the foot speed for shortstop, he has a cannon for an arm and if he is going to remain (regain?) elite prospect status, he will have to stick at third. The bat just is not enough for first and he is too slow to be an outfielder. A third baseman with contact who can hit .270 and 10-15 HR will play in the majors. If Flores pushes his power up towards 20 home runs, starts walking more and can prove he is apt defensively at third, he becomes a top prospect again.

Ideal 2012 for Wilmer: 500 AB, 20 HR, at least 50 walks all the while playing passable defense at third (at minimum).

Cesar Puello

Needs: To prove that power and speed are a combination and not an “either or”, needs to prove he can get on base and cut down on his strikeouts.

Stats: Puello broke out once already in a big way in 2010 when he stole 45 bases and hit .292 as a 20-year-old in Savannah. Just as impressively, he got on base 37.5% of the time which led to 80 runs in only 469 at bats. In 2011, however, the OBP dipped to .313 and Puello struck out more than five times for every walk he took (103 to 18). What Puello did improve on was his power stroke, mashing 10 home runs, up from the single long ball he hit the year before.

Five Tools: Puello needs to prove that he is the bat to watch in this system. We saw the speed in 2010, the power in 2011, all the while an inconsistent ability to get on base. Puello needs to focus on his pitch selection, start taking more walks, and work on becoming the true five-tool player many believe he can be. There is little by way of hitting prospects that project to above average major leagues at this point in the Mets system and Puello needs to prove that he can match results with athleticism and ability.

Ideal 2012 for Cesar: 15 HR, 40 steals, gets the OBP back over .350 while doing it against AA pitching.

Jenrry Mejia

Needs: Prove health and ability to start.

Please no bullpen: Health. It is that simple. I have been an advocate for Mejia as a starter ever since, well, he was taken out of that role. He has made excellent strides in his recovery and many think he is destined for a relieving duties for his career. However, Mejia’s talent before the move to the bullpen and the surgery suggested nothing but a front of the rotation starter. When Mejia starts competing again sometime in May, he needs to build his arm strength and prove that he has the longevity and ability to get elite hitters out throughout the course of long starts.

Ceiling and Potential: Think about how much more imposing the Mets rotation prospects become when you factor in Mejia. We have heard so much about Wheeler, Harvey, and Familia while Mejia in many ways has taken the back pages. I attribute this to the consensus among the blogosphere that Mejia is destined for the bullpen. I say that until it is clear beyond a doubt that Mejia’s true calling is as a reliever (be it ineffectiveness as a starter or injury that keeps him from that role), that he should get every chance to prove he can become the blue-chip ace we all thought he was going to be a few years ago. Mejia is still young and the sky is still the limit for him. He needs to prove he can perform and excel now when the odds are against him. Mejia’s return from injury and progress in the minors could make the most significant difference as any single player in the minors this season.

Ideal 2012 for Jenrry: Healthy.

Cory Vaughn

Needs: Cut down on the strikeouts, prove himself in the mid/upper minors.

Stats: What a roller coaster Vaughn has had since being drafted. As one of my favorite players in the Mets system, I am rooting for this guy and I hope he can have a breakout 2012 and prove he is one of the top outfielders in the system. Vaughn struggled in the FSL and in a significant sample size as well (.219 in 210 at bats). The strikeouts have never been pretty and although Vaughn will probably never be a contact-first hitter, he needs to find a way to strike out less than the 25.7% of his plate appearances (as he did in 2011).

Dark Horse: To his credit, Vaughn is still getting on base and the power is still there. This is a player who once was thought to be Carlos Beltran’s replacement because of his raw talent. Vaughn should start the year in the FSL again and if all goes well, taste AA by the end of the summer. This kid needs to have a .300-20-80 season while stealing a few bases and striking out less than 20% of the time. No one deserves to have a break out season more than Vaughn and I truly hope he can put it all together in 2012. Keep in mind that this is a guy who hit 14 home runs in 264 at bats in 2010 for Brooklyn. Don’t write him off yet.

Ideal 2012 for Cory: .300, 30 HR, K:BB ratio below 2.0, 20 steals. Vaughn’s 2010 season extrapolated over 500 at bats would give him a line looking like this: 27 HR, 106 RBI, 23 steals. So no, that projection is not out of the question.

Erik Goeddel

Needs: Health, consistency.

Big Five? This might be an odd choice for this list but I have been high on Goeddel ever since we drafted him in 2010 but injuries have hampered his projection and development in his short career thus far. Goeddel had a strong finish to 2011 and he still has the potential to remain a starter. When he was drafted, a lot of experts though he could become a nice mid-rotation starter, maybe even a #2 or ace if all goes well. He has the potential to live up to that lofty projection but as a 23-year-old who will likely start in Savannah this year, he needs to start dominating and advancing through the system the way we thought he was going to when we pried him away from returning to UCLA in 2010. Imagine what Goeddel would add if he dominates early in the year so much so that he catches up to Wheeler in AA by the end of the summer. I like this pitcher a lot and he still has the time and talent to become an elite starter for this team. Keep an eye on him this year.

Ideal 2012 for Erik: Health, first off. Secondly, dominance in Savannah and St. Lucie so by season's end he becomes the #2 Binghampton starter behind Wheeler. I care less about stats as much as health, consistency, and movement upwards through the minors for Erik.

--Stephen