Showing posts with label Joe Nathan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Joe Nathan. Show all posts

11/27/11

Is Patience really a Virtue for the Mets?



The New York Mets are in waiting mode. They are waiting for a jury to possibly hear their Madoff case. They are waiting for the walls of Citi Field to be moved in. They are waiting for the right time to make a move on the free agent market.

The first one is inevitable. It will happen, it's a matter of time before the team sees the results of their labor; good or bad. The ball is rolling on the second one and so, it will eventually be completed. As for the third, however, the Mets hold that option squarely in their own hands.

They can choose to take part or not. They have shown little public interest in players this current off season. Names like Joe Nathan and Grady Sizemore have been kicked around with little fanfare.

While the whole of Mets nation holds their collective breath in anticipation for the Jose Reyes saga to reach a climax, many viable options in the free agent pool are getting hooked and reeled in by other teams. This is a disturbing trend.

After all, when GM Sandy Alderson was hired last season, he made it a point to avoid big free agency in the early stages. When the Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies signed free agents and made big moves last year, he essentially said "good for them, they're not us, we have a different plan."

At the time that was admirable. The plan was to cut salary and relieve themselves of certain dead weight players that had become a detriment to the financial health of the team. He freed up salary. This season they have some money to spend.

It is debatable exactly how much, but all signs point to them having something to spend in order to wrap up a nice size gift for under the tree of Mets fans this holiday season. So far, though, they have held steadfast to their plan of discretion and patience. Patience is a virtue, as the old proverb says.

For further confirmation of this current status one needs merely to look at the local sources. According to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News (via Twitter) the Mets are still in "exploratory stage and aren't close to anything". Maybe it's the last part of that quote that has me so frustrated at this point of the off season.

I am well aware that the free agency period is only a few weeks old and has a few months still left. But the Mets stand idle while teams around them grow stronger and they watch players that would have been perfect fits for their system and their roster go elsewhere. That's the part that gets me.

Take Joe Nathan for example. He's a local product and a playoff-tested and proven commodity. He wanted far too much money in the end, but if the Mets had made a respectable offer he may have taken it for the chance to play for his home team. We may never know.

There was no real expectation for Jonathan Papelbon to land in Queens, but Grady Sizemore would have been realistic. The Indians did not overspend for a player just coming off of major surgery and trying to find his form.

If he regains his speed, that will be a great move on their part. Why couldn't the Mets have gotten into the bidding? He was a perfect transition from the Reyes era, should they lose him, to whatever the Mets were to try next.

In the end, there are still a ton of players available and this could become merely a mute point if they are able to sign a few good players in January or February when the athletes are itching for a team to report to.

But for the meantime, it is a fact that they are holding steady while their main competition gets better. That includes team that were better than them to begin with. This is perhaps a case where they need to be patient but public about their patience.

As more and more good players get gobbled up by contending teams, the fans will grow more frustrated and vocal. Don't they deserve to at least understand the philosophy of their team? They pay the big money salaries of these players and administration with their ticket sales and merchandise.

They should have a more open understanding of the mentality their team is taking on. It would appease millions of misguided and ignorant (as in not knowing) fans. They are waiting to see how things are going to shake out this off season. I understand that.

But is that a reason for management to go so quiet? Perhaps patience is a virtue, but silence isn't always golden.

11/16/11

Taking a Lap Around The Pen

The 2012 Mets are a bit of an enigma right now. Are they rebuilding? Are they trying to compete? Are they just treading water? One area I'm not terribly concerned with is the bullpen. Sure we don't have a closer and the most steady arm is over 37 years old... I think they'll be fine.

Current Depth Chart:
  1. Bobby Parnell (R)
  2. Manny Acosta (R)
  3. Tim Byrdak (L)
  4. Taylor Buchholz (R) [Non-Tender Possibility]
  5. Pedro Beato (R)
  6. D.J. Carrasco (R)
  7. Daniel Herrera (L)
  8. Josh Stinson (R)
  9. Pat Misch (L)

What are we missing? Assuming that Byrdak and Herrera are both fine for 2012... a closer. The 8th inning can fall to a mix of Parnell, Acosta and Byrdak (Pressure lefties) and the Mets wouldn't be bad off. Carrasco can continue to be wonderfully mediocre and if he can't... Misch can be the long reliever (Or Gee, Schwinden, or Cohoon) and step in. That still leaves the Mets 1 closer shy of a bullpen.

And The Candidates Are:
  1. Heath Bell (34) - We all remember the promise of Heath Bell when he WAS a Met. He wasn't yet a star. Seems all he needed was a little West Coast mellow to take his game to the next level. As a Padre he's been ELITE. There are two things working against Bell's contract: 1) He's 34 and 2) He's been protected by Petco. Even with all of that he's likely to be looking for $14 Million per year or more... and 3+ years. I can't see that happening.
  2. Francisco Rodriguez (30) - Let's all groan at the idea of bringing Frankie back. Now let's grow up and realize that he wasn't BAD when not abusing the elderly and being injured. So... We re-hash a little K-Rod in the bullpen. Now... I don't think he's going to sniff $12 Million but I do think he'll be trying for 3+ years. I think a realistic offer would be 3 years and $28 Million (TOTAL). Would he even WANT to come back to Queens? I don't know.
  3. Francisco Cordero (37) - Cordero has been pretty sweet for the Reds. At 37 and with a pretty good bullpen, I think the Reds are likely to allow him to walk. (Maybe not?) If Cordero is looking for a contract at 37 he'll be hard pressed to get over 2 years. I think 2 years at $10 Million per year is not a bad deal for a closer who has been as remarkably steady as Cordero has. Now that I've said that we'll watch him implode.
  4. Ryan Madson (31) - At 31 he's still among the younger closers and I happen to think in terms of skill he's probably among the most talented. Prior to Phillies poorly budgeted signing of Jonathan Papelbon, I just have to worry over the projected price of what Madson would be. I also have this lingering doubt that Madson is a setup man and NOT a closer. His 2011 success aside, I have watched Ryan be thrust into the closer role a few times and fail. Phillies were talking 4 years and $44 Million. I don't think he'll get that but I think 3 years and $27 Million should be easy.
  5. Frank Francisco (32) - Francisco is never the guy you WANT to have as your closer. Teams always seem to look at Frank as the ideal 8th inning guy, who gets THRUST into closing situations and can handle himself. I look at his numbers and I see him as the poor man's Francisco Cordero. He's got pretty good stats (Not great) but gets the job done. He'll likely be shooting for 3 years and $20 Million which isn't too bad for a pitcher like this.
  6. Matt Capps (28) - Capps is one of the interesting names on this list. For one thing... he's only 28 and has 4 years before I typically worry about arms declining. For another he's been a successful closer. His 2011 will likely keep his overall value pretty reasonable but I do think he'll earn over $6 Million a year and seek a contract 2-3 years in length. Given his age, durability and success... he'll likely get it. I wouldn't be surprised if the Mets had him on the radar.
  7. Joe Nathan (37) -Now... I think this WILL be Alderson's #1 target... BUT I also think there will need to be a safety net. He's 37 and coming off a BAD season (after being hurt for a long time). It kinda reminds me of the J.J. Putz situation but hopefully we'd get the second year back numbers. At 37 and coming off a bad year he's only going to want/get a 1 year deal and even inflating the price to match his former stuff... $8 Million? I can live with that.
  8. Jonathan Broxton (28) - Allow me to introduce the safety net that EVERYONE wants. Broxton needs a change of scenery and that's fine. I'd LOVE to get he and another risky closer a shot in Queens... I really would. I simply think that because he's 28 and has a REAL upside, if he can regain his footing. He will want a 1 year deal with a player option. He will get over $6 Million from some team. I don't think the Mets would be willing to pay that for an insurance policy.
  9. Jon Rauch (33) - Now... the safety net I think the Mets COULD afford. You can give a guy like Jon Rauch multiple years because at best... he's a closer and at worst... he's a setup guy. ALSO... if Chris Young and Jon Rauch are on the same team we'd have the tallest pitching staff in the majors. 2 years and $10-12 Million. Whether he's our closer or our setup guy/insurance policy I think I'm willing to do that.
Then The Phillies Ruin EVERYTHING:
Jonathan Papelbon (31) - Signs a 4 year $50 Million deal that throws all of my numerology out of whack. Sure... it adds Ryan Madson into the mix but it also pumps up closer values a good bit. Bell (Who would still be a better signing then Papelbon should get more annual money than Jonathan (at 34 I don't know about years). The deal is bad for the Phillies and I'm happy they made it on one hand but on the other... it adds $1-4 Million to each one of my projected yearly salaries.

11/10/11

Hot Stove: - Prince Fielder, Tampa Bay, Mark Buehrle, Rod Barajas, Joe Nathan


Prince Fielder – .299 BA, .566 OPS, 38 HR, 120 RBI  - Unlike Pujols, there seems to be little chance in Fielder returning to his team. In 2010, Fielder reportedly rejected a deal similar to Ryan Howard’s five-year, $125 million deal. Then the Brewers made a long-term commitment to Ryan Braun and now don’t appear to have the resources to make a larger offer. If he does leave, the Cubs could lure him using the allure of 81 games at Wrigley Field. The Cubs are a team that could use a big bat anywhere, but especially at first base. Their 654 runs were their worst in a 162-game season since 1992 and it marked the third straight year they have finished in the bottom half of the NL in runs scored. Also helping Fielder’s representatives in negotiations with the Cubs is that first baseman Carlos Pena hit .225 in his one-year deal. http://www.metro.us/newyork/sports/article/1019347--mlb-free-agency-fire-up-the-hot-stove

Offseason agenda: Without making a move, the Rays' offseason already is off to a strong start for this reason: Andrew Friedman and Joe Maddon haven't gone anywhere. Because of the club's success since reaching the World Series in 2008, Friedman’s and Maddon’s names likely will come up every time a big-money team is shopping for a GM or manager. After being courted by the Los Angeles Angels, Friedman has begun his quest to improve an offense that in 52 games this past season couldn’t muster more than two runs. http://aol.sportingnews.com/mlb/feed/2011-10/hot-stove-league/story/hot-stove-report-tampa-bay-rays#ixzz1dJYaNduc

Joe Cowley of the Chicago-Sun Times reports that Mark Buehrle has told the White Sox that he will not accept a hometown discount to stay in Chicago. Buehrle, who turns 33 in March, already met with Marlins earlier this week while Cowley writes that about ten teams have expressed interest. The market for free agent starters is especially thin this winter, so this could be his last chance for a big payday. The White Sox are still in the mix, but they could be priced out of the bidding. http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/345099/baseball-headlines?r=1

Pirates signed C Rod Barajas to a one-year contract with a club option for 2013. No word on the specifics, but Barajas earned $3.25 million in 2011. The 36-year-old backstop batted .230/.287/.430 with 16 homers, 47 RBI and a .717 OPS over 336 plate appearances with the Dodgers this season while throwing out 25 percent (20-for-80) of would-be basestealers. With Ryan Doumit and Chris Snyder free agents, he'll be the primary catcher in Pittsburgh next season http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/345102/baseball-headlines?r=1

In his first 17 appearances — from the start of the season until he went on the DL — Joe Nathan simply could not get hitters out. He allowed 13 runs in his first 15.1 innings of work, posted a WHIP of 1.70, and allowed opposing hitters a .274/.370/.500 line. He recorded a few strikeouts along the way, but with Matt Capps getting the save opportunities, he couldn’t possibly strike out enough hitters to make him worth playing. Following a month on the disabled list with inflammation in his elbow — though in all likelihood, the inflammation was as much in his ERA as in his arm — Nathan looked much better than he did in the early part of the season. He still wasn’t nearly the dominant reliever the Twins had hoped he would be, but he held hitters to a much more reasonable .193/.239/.367 line with a 3.38 ERA and a 28/5 K/BB ratio. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4788&position=P

Hot Stove: - Hiroki Kuroda, Jonathan Papelbon, Carlos Zembrano, Yu Darvish, Joe Nathan


Hiroki Kuroda: 13-16, 3.07 ERA, 1.21 WHIP  Kuroda has won 41 games since joining the Dodgers in 2008 and last year was his finest season in terms of wins, innings pitched (202) and strikeouts (161). Kuroda has indicated he would like to stay in Los Angeles even with the team’s ownership situation in flux. He is 37, so it would also be hard to imagine many other teams bending over backwards to give him much more than the $47 million he has been paid the last four years. http://www.metro.us/newyork/sports/article/1019347--mlb-free-agency-fire-up-the-hot-stove

Ryan Madson will not be celebrating his reported eight-figure deal deal alone. [Madson] has to be pretty happy with the reported four-year, $44 million deal he's set to receive from the Phillies, but he's not the only one. Jonathan Papelbon can't be too torn up by the deal, either. If Madson is worth $11 million a year, Papelbon -- slightly younger with better stats and more experience -- should be looking at at least $13 million per season. Of course, there's going to be one less big-money team bidding for his services, but there should due enough out there that allows Papelbon to cash in as the market's top free agent closer. http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/316872-price-for-papelbon-may-reach-13m#ixzz1dEKRTyzN

Theo Epstein and Co. have already started ruling by new math -- addition by subtraction. While adding players is a top priority, subtracting players such as Carlos Zambrano is also extremely important. ... [610 Sports Radio] in Kansas City spoke with Royals GM Dayton Moore who indicated that he would consider taking on Zambrano if the deal made sense for his club. "We would have to be interested. We would have to explore it because that's what you should do. You should explore every opportunity. Carlos Zambrano is a heckuva competitor," said Moore. "Carlos Zambrano has had a lot of success in the major leagues. Carlos Zambrano is actually a very pleasant, easy going, classy person off the field."  http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/316871-theo-unloading-zambrano-on-royals#ixzz1dEMNUkWt

Darvish has avoided the notorious overwork that plagued Matsuzaka’s amateur and early pro careers. Like Matsuzaka’s teenage years, young Darvish pitched at Koshien, Japan’s national high school baseball tournament. Unlike Matsuzaka, he doesn’t quite have a 250-pitch, 17-inning complete game on his resume. Darvish’s longest outing was a 166-pitch game that he lost on a walk-off home run in the 10th inning. Also, unlike Matsuzaka, Darvish was eased into his pro career: he threw 94.1 innings and 149.2 innings in his first two pro years. Matsuzaka, by contrast, threw 180 innings as an 18 year-old rookie — 347.2 in his first two seasons — and set a career high with 240.1 innings in his third. In essence, Darvish has fired fewer bullets http://projectprospect.com/article/2011/11/08/yu-darvish-scouting-report

He’s local guy, who has made it clear he would play for the Mets; and so I could definitely see him with this team next season (though the Twins could still try to re-sign him, despite declining his option), as he also fits the mold of someone looking to re-establish his footing as a closer. Joe Nathan is a sinker/slider pitcher, who would typically live in the mid-to high-90s with his two fastballs. However, he struggled with his velocity in 2011 after missing the entire 2010 season due to Tommy John surgery. He also missed about a month this past season with a right flexor muscle strain; and, along with his diminished stuff, I wonder how much he has left in the tank at this stage of his career  http://www.metsblog.com/2011/11/09/20-experts-say-joe-nathan-over-k-rod

9/27/11

Baseball: Alexander Massengill, Grant Green, Kila Ka’aihue, Rudy J. Ledesma, Joe Nathan


The University of Cincinnati baseball team has adopted 10-year-old cancer survivor Alexander Massengill as an honorary teammate through The Friends of Jaclyn Foundation, head coach Brian Cleary announced Wednesday. “We’re glad to have Alex as a part of the team,” said Cleary. “I expect his involvement will be a great benefit to our players.” Alex, an avid baseball fan, was diagnosed with a medublastoma brain tumor in April 2010. After eight months of procedures and treatments at Cincinnati Children’s Hospital, Alex has been free of cancer since December. He recently returned back to school and was healthy enough to rejoin his little-league baseball team over the summer. - http://www.collegebaseballdaily.com/2011/09/24/cincinnati-welcomes-alex-massengill-to-bearcat-family

Grant Green is the best hope that A’s have in the minors right now to be an offensive minded SS. His power was on display last season but has been lacking in 2011 until recently. He’s certainly behind last years pace by a great distance which must be disappointing for both he and the A’s. But he still is showing the skill set to make him an average defender and hitter inside of the next year. But a 20/20 SS is probably not who Green will ever be. The search for the SS of the future will continue. ETA: 2012 - http://baseballinstinct.com/2011/09/25/prospect-instinct-grant-green-of-oakland-athletics

Kila Ka’aihue – Despite being given a full-time job in Kansas City and some very optimistic third-party projections heading into the season, the Kila Monster not only saw himself lose his job with the MLB team, but also his employment all-together.  He’s spent time in AAA since 2008 and has averaged just short of 29 HR per 162 games at that level in his professional career, so by now no one doubts the power that the Hawai’i native possesses.  Now that he’s been DFAed, Kila can essentially be acquired at no cost by any team of the league and, at age 27, he’s still got a few seasons before his ‘old man’ skills will likely begin to decline.  At the very least, Ka’aihue can provide some organizational depth for teams like the Giants (as long as Belt can still play LF or remains the reasonless red-headed step-child of the organization), Dodgers, Mariners or Orioles, if not start for those teams.  Worst case, as can be said for most of those who appear on this list, he could probably make some sort of Dan Johnson-like resurgence in Japan. - http://www.replacementlevelbaseball.com/2011/09/who-will-be-the-next-mark-trumbo

An 18-year-old man who died when he crashed a pickup into an Riverside (91) Freeway overpass pillar was identified today as a California Baptist University baseball player from Anaheim. Rudy J. Ledesma Jr. was believed to have fallen asleep at the wheel before his eastbound Dodge Dakota pickup crashed into a guardrail, overturned and hit a pillar supporting the Buchanan Street overpass about 3:05 a.m. Saturday, according to The Orange County Register.  The young man, who had played baseball at Cypress High School, had just moved to Riverside this month to attend Cal Baptist. - http://www.myvalleynews.com/story/58890

Joe Nathan: He may not want to leave Minnesota, but whether or not the Twins bring him back remains to be seen. Nathan had Tommy John surgery in 2010 and returned to the mound with Minnesota in June. He's made forty-five appearances since then, posting pretty good rates of 8.86 K/9 and 2.81 BB/9. His fastball is a bit slower than it was pre-injury, which might partially explain why Nathan has given up home runs many more often than he did in the past. He's turning 37 in November, which makes his odds of injury higher but potential salary lower for next season. - http://www.amazinavenue.com/2011/9/22/2441932/the-search-for-the-mets-2012-closer-recently-injured-pitchers