Taking a Lap Around The Pen

The 2012 Mets are a bit of an enigma right now. Are they rebuilding? Are they trying to compete? Are they just treading water? One area I'm not terribly concerned with is the bullpen. Sure we don't have a closer and the most steady arm is over 37 years old... I think they'll be fine.

Current Depth Chart:

1. Bobby Parnell (R)
2. Manny Acosta (R)
3. Tim Byrdak (L)
4. Taylor Buchholz (R) [Non-Tender Possibility]
5. Pedro Beato (R)
6. D.J. Carrasco (R)
7. Daniel Herrera (L)
8. Josh Stinson (R)
9. Pat Misch (L)

What are we missing? Assuming that Byrdak and Herrera are both fine for 2012... a closer. The 8th inning can fall to a mix of Parnell, Acosta and Byrdak (Pressure lefties) and the Mets wouldn't be bad off. Carrasco can continue to be wonderfully mediocre and if he can't... Misch can be the long reliever (Or Gee, Schwinden, or Cohoon) and step in. That still leaves the Mets 1 closer shy of a bullpen.

And The Candidates Are:

1. Heath Bell (34) - We all remember the promise of Heath Bell when he WAS a Met. He wasn't yet a star. Seems all he needed was a little West Coast mellow to take his game to the next level. As a Padre he's been ELITE. There are two things working against Bell's contract: 1) He's 34 and 2) He's been protected by Petco. Even with all of that he's likely to be looking for $14 Million per year or more... and 3+ years. I can't see that happening.
   
2. Francisco Rodriguez (30) - Let's all groan at the idea of bringing Frankie back. Now let's grow up and realize that he wasn't BAD when not abusing the elderly and being injured. So... We re-hash a little K-Rod in the bullpen. Now... I don't think he's going to sniff $12 Million but I do think he'll be trying for 3+ years. I think a realistic offer would be 3 years and $28 Million (TOTAL). Would he even WANT to come back to Queens? I don't know.
   
3. Francisco Cordero (37) - Cordero has been pretty sweet for the Reds. At 37 and with a pretty good bullpen, I think the Reds are likely to allow him to walk. (Maybe not?) If Cordero is looking for a contract at 37 he'll be hard pressed to get over 2 years. I think 2 years at $10 Million per year is not a bad deal for a closer who has been as remarkably steady as Cordero has. Now that I've said that we'll watch him implode.
4. Ryan Madson (31) - At 31 he's still among the younger closers and I happen to think in terms of skill he's probably among the most talented. Prior to Phillies poorly budgeted signing of Jonathan Papelbon, I just have to worry over the projected price of what Madson would be. I also have this lingering doubt that Madson is a setup man and NOT a closer. His 2011 success aside, I have watched Ryan be thrust into the closer role a few times and fail. Phillies were talking 4 years and $44 Million. I don't think he'll get that but I think 3 years and $27 Million should be easy.
   
5. Frank Francisco (32) - Francisco is never the guy you WANT to have as your closer. Teams always seem to look at Frank as the ideal 8th inning guy, who gets THRUST into closing situations and can handle himself. I look at his numbers and I see him as the poor man's Francisco Cordero. He's got pretty good stats (Not great) but gets the job done. He'll likely be shooting for 3 years and $20 Million which isn't too bad for a pitcher like this.
   
6. Matt Capps (28) - Capps is one of the interesting names on this list. For one thing... he's only 28 and has 4 years before I typically worry about arms declining. For another he's been a successful closer. His 2011 will likely keep his overall value pretty reasonable but I do think he'll earn over $6 Million a year and seek a contract 2-3 years in length. Given his age, durability and success... he'll likely get it. I wouldn't be surprised if the Mets had him on the radar.
   
7. Joe Nathan (37) -Now... I think this WILL be Alderson's #1 target... BUT I also think there will need to be a safety net. He's 37 and coming off a BAD season (after being hurt for a long time). It kinda reminds me of the J.J. Putz situation but hopefully we'd get the second year back numbers. At 37 and coming off a bad year he's only going to want/get a 1 year deal and even inflating the price to match his former stuff... $8 Million? I can live with that.
   
8. Jonathan Broxton (28) - Allow me to introduce the safety net that EVERYONE wants. Broxton needs a change of scenery and that's fine. I'd LOVE to get he and another risky closer a shot in Queens... I really would. I simply think that because he's 28 and has a REAL upside, if he can regain his footing. He will want a 1 year deal with a player option. He will get over $6 Million from some team. I don't think the Mets would be willing to pay that for an insurance policy.
   
9. Jon Rauch (33) - Now... the safety net I think the Mets COULD afford. You can give a guy like Jon Rauch multiple years because at best... he's a closer and at worst... he's a setup guy. ALSO... if Chris Young and Jon Rauch are on the same team we'd have the tallest pitching staff in the majors. 2 years and $10-12 Million. Whether he's our closer or our setup guy/insurance policy I think I'm willing to do that.

Then The Phillies Ruin EVERYTHING:

Jonathan Papelbon (31) - Signs a 4 year $50 Million deal that throws all of my numerology out of whack. Sure... it adds Ryan Madson into the mix but it also pumps up closer values a good bit. Bell (Who would still be a better signing then Papelbon should get more annual money than Jonathan (at 34 I don't know about years). The deal is bad for the Phillies and I'm happy they made it on one hand but on the other... it adds $1-4 Million to each one of my projected yearly salaries.

Hot Stove: - C.J. Wilson, Braves, Juan Rivera, Yoennis Cespedes, Ryan Madson

 C.J. Wilson: Now that CC Sabathia has re-upped with the Yankees, Wilson is the consensus top starter on the open market. Which means he's about to make a boatload of money. The question is whether he's actually worth it. The upside: Wilson was the No. 1 starter on a team that just came within a strike of winning the World Series, he's a rare power left-hander who struck out 206 batters in 223 1/3 innings and he's still relatively young (he turns 31 this month). The downside: Wilson has only been a starter for two seasons, he's issued the second-most walks in the AL over those two seasons and he was decidedly unimpressive during the postseason. Is all that worth perhaps nine figures? The Nationals have to make that decision. http://www.csnwashington.com/blog/nationals-talk/post/Whom-might-Nats-pursue-in-free-agency?blockID=587468&feedID=6358

The Braves have to commit, this winter, to adding a leftfielder who can bat in the top half of the order, to go with midseason pickup Michael Bourn and holdovers Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward as the core of a championship-caliber lineup. They can do that by trade or by free agency, but it means the team's owners, Liberty Media, has to be willing to spend money. The best corner outfielders available on the market are Jason Kubel, Carlos Beltran and Michael Cuddyer. Beltran, who the Braves were in on at the trade deadline, would be an excellent fit, but likely to require a three-year commitment at upwards of $10 million per season. If they would prefer, the Braves could put some of that pitching depth -- the names above, plus Mike Minor or Brandon Beachy -- on the trade wire. That could make players like B.J. Upton, Nick Swisher, Logan Morrison or Andre Ethier available -- three of whom are free agents after 2012. The goal, however pursued, is clear: Bolster the top of the lineup so that a third straight season of strong pitching isn't wasted http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/joe_sheehan/11/02/nl.east.hot.stove.preview/index.html#ixzz1cxsH1G1n

Signed free agent LF-R Juan Rivera. [11/3] What baffles me about this move isn’t that the Dodgers re-signed Juan Rivera, but that the Dodgers re-signed Juan Rivera for $4.5 million (technically $4 million with a $500,000 buyout of his 2013 team option, which brings the total to $4.5 million in guaranteed cash). Granted, the Dodgers found out last season what can happen when you have a hole in left field, and they have every reason to want to avoid reliving that PTSD-inducing experience. During the first half of 2010, the Dodgers tried to fill their left field void with a motley crew composed of Tony Gwynn, Jr., Marcus Thames, Xavier Paul, Jamie Hoffmann, Jerry Sands, Jay Gibbons, Trent Oeltjen, and—Scully save us—Eugenio Velez, who went 0-for-37 on the year. That group combined for a .232 TAv through July 10th, which ranked 26th in the majors. The team was 41-51 and 11 games behind the division-leading Giants by then, but in light of their acute need, it didn’t come as a complete shock that they reached for Rivera. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15470

According to Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports, the Yankees, Phillies, Marlins, Blue Jays, Giants, Nationals, Indians, A's and Pirates have all expressed interest in 26-year-old Cuban outfielder Yoennis Cespedes. We had already caught wind of the Yanks', Phils', Marlins' and Nats' interest in Cespedes, who defected from Cuba over the summer, but the other teams are new. Cespedes boasts an impressive combination of well-developed power and speed that could lead to him becoming a productive major league regular soon after a contract agreement. The Marlins are currently considered the favorite to land him and are even sending owner Jeffrey Loria to the Dominican Republic on Thursday for a meet-and-greet. Bidding will begin later this month.

Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reports that the Phillies are making a "strong push" to re-sign Ryan Madson. Madson's agent Scott Boras said Saturday that his client is already drawing "a lot of interest." Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. has refused to comment on negotiations, but they are expected to do their best to re-sign him. The 31-year-old right-hander posted a 2.37 ERA and 62/16 K/BB ratio over 60 2/3 innings this season. He also went 32-for-34 in save opportunities. http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/344999/baseball-headlines?r=1