Hot Stove: - Jonathan Broxton, Kelly Shoppach, Ramon Santiago, Chris Iannetta, Ramon Hernandez

I was hoping the Mets would land Jonathan Broxton as a low-cost reclamation project for the back end of the bullpen, but the beefy right-hander would hardly be the first man to be lured in by Francoeur’s charming set of intangibles. One could only imagine the scene in those Georgia backwoods, Francoeur smiling maniacally with a rifle in one hand, a fresh kill in the other and a glimmer in his eye, convincing Broxton that this time he really has turned the corner and that if win-loss record was so important, well… you know. http://www.tedquarters.net/2011/11/29/oh-well-if-thats-the-case

Shoppach has pretty dramatic platoon splits (career .909 OPS vs. LHed pitching in over 450 PAs) and he'd only be facing LHed pitching here.  Thing is, how much can you pay your platoon catcher who may not get 200 PAs?  He made $3M in 2011 so he's probably not ready to cave for $1.5M this early but I doubt anyone sees him as more than a platoon guy.  He's prob waiting on one of the richer teams to come calling hoping to get close to what he made last yr  http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=228&f=1380&t=8347161

Tigers re-signed INF Ramon Santiago to a two-year contract. Terms of the contract aren't yet known. It's somewhat of a surprise to see him return, as the Tigers view him as a strictly as a utility player and many expected that he would seek a starting job elsewhere. However, those offers apparently didn't come. The 32-year-old batted .260/.311/.384 with a .695 OPS this season and should continue to see semi-regular playing time around the Tigers' infield. http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/345944/baseball-headlines?r=1

The Angels, in an effort to inject on-base percentage into the lineup and boost their offense behind the plate, acquired veteran catcher Chris Iannetta from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for pitcher Tyler Chatwood, the team announced Wednesday.  In 112 games last season, in most of which he batted eighth, Iannetta hit .238 with a .370 on-base percentage, 14 home runs and 55 runs batted in. The 28-year-old struck out 89 times but drew 70 walks, and he would be a considerable offensive upgrade over Angels catcher Jeff Mathis, who hit .174 with a .225 on-base percentage, three homers and 22 RBIs last season. http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2011/11/angels-acquire-rockies-catcher-chris-iannetta-for-tyler-chatwood.html

The Rockies' new two-year deal with catcher Ramon Hernandez is worth a total of $6.4 million. Hernandez only has to pass a physical before the agreement can be finalized. He posted a decent .283/.342/.451 slash line this year for the Reds and should remain a productive offensive player for the next two seasons out in Colorado. The Rockies traded catcher Chris Iannetta to the Angels in a corresponding move. http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/345960/baseball-headlines?r=1

Taking a Lap Around The Pen

The 2012 Mets are a bit of an enigma right now. Are they rebuilding? Are they trying to compete? Are they just treading water? One area I'm not terribly concerned with is the bullpen. Sure we don't have a closer and the most steady arm is over 37 years old... I think they'll be fine.

Current Depth Chart:

1. Bobby Parnell (R)
2. Manny Acosta (R)
3. Tim Byrdak (L)
4. Taylor Buchholz (R) [Non-Tender Possibility]
5. Pedro Beato (R)
6. D.J. Carrasco (R)
7. Daniel Herrera (L)
8. Josh Stinson (R)
9. Pat Misch (L)

What are we missing? Assuming that Byrdak and Herrera are both fine for 2012... a closer. The 8th inning can fall to a mix of Parnell, Acosta and Byrdak (Pressure lefties) and the Mets wouldn't be bad off. Carrasco can continue to be wonderfully mediocre and if he can't... Misch can be the long reliever (Or Gee, Schwinden, or Cohoon) and step in. That still leaves the Mets 1 closer shy of a bullpen.

And The Candidates Are:

1. Heath Bell (34) - We all remember the promise of Heath Bell when he WAS a Met. He wasn't yet a star. Seems all he needed was a little West Coast mellow to take his game to the next level. As a Padre he's been ELITE. There are two things working against Bell's contract: 1) He's 34 and 2) He's been protected by Petco. Even with all of that he's likely to be looking for $14 Million per year or more... and 3+ years. I can't see that happening.
   
2. Francisco Rodriguez (30) - Let's all groan at the idea of bringing Frankie back. Now let's grow up and realize that he wasn't BAD when not abusing the elderly and being injured. So... We re-hash a little K-Rod in the bullpen. Now... I don't think he's going to sniff $12 Million but I do think he'll be trying for 3+ years. I think a realistic offer would be 3 years and $28 Million (TOTAL). Would he even WANT to come back to Queens? I don't know.
   
3. Francisco Cordero (37) - Cordero has been pretty sweet for the Reds. At 37 and with a pretty good bullpen, I think the Reds are likely to allow him to walk. (Maybe not?) If Cordero is looking for a contract at 37 he'll be hard pressed to get over 2 years. I think 2 years at $10 Million per year is not a bad deal for a closer who has been as remarkably steady as Cordero has. Now that I've said that we'll watch him implode.
4. Ryan Madson (31) - At 31 he's still among the younger closers and I happen to think in terms of skill he's probably among the most talented. Prior to Phillies poorly budgeted signing of Jonathan Papelbon, I just have to worry over the projected price of what Madson would be. I also have this lingering doubt that Madson is a setup man and NOT a closer. His 2011 success aside, I have watched Ryan be thrust into the closer role a few times and fail. Phillies were talking 4 years and $44 Million. I don't think he'll get that but I think 3 years and $27 Million should be easy.
   
5. Frank Francisco (32) - Francisco is never the guy you WANT to have as your closer. Teams always seem to look at Frank as the ideal 8th inning guy, who gets THRUST into closing situations and can handle himself. I look at his numbers and I see him as the poor man's Francisco Cordero. He's got pretty good stats (Not great) but gets the job done. He'll likely be shooting for 3 years and $20 Million which isn't too bad for a pitcher like this.
   
6. Matt Capps (28) - Capps is one of the interesting names on this list. For one thing... he's only 28 and has 4 years before I typically worry about arms declining. For another he's been a successful closer. His 2011 will likely keep his overall value pretty reasonable but I do think he'll earn over $6 Million a year and seek a contract 2-3 years in length. Given his age, durability and success... he'll likely get it. I wouldn't be surprised if the Mets had him on the radar.
   
7. Joe Nathan (37) -Now... I think this WILL be Alderson's #1 target... BUT I also think there will need to be a safety net. He's 37 and coming off a BAD season (after being hurt for a long time). It kinda reminds me of the J.J. Putz situation but hopefully we'd get the second year back numbers. At 37 and coming off a bad year he's only going to want/get a 1 year deal and even inflating the price to match his former stuff... $8 Million? I can live with that.
   
8. Jonathan Broxton (28) - Allow me to introduce the safety net that EVERYONE wants. Broxton needs a change of scenery and that's fine. I'd LOVE to get he and another risky closer a shot in Queens... I really would. I simply think that because he's 28 and has a REAL upside, if he can regain his footing. He will want a 1 year deal with a player option. He will get over $6 Million from some team. I don't think the Mets would be willing to pay that for an insurance policy.
   
9. Jon Rauch (33) - Now... the safety net I think the Mets COULD afford. You can give a guy like Jon Rauch multiple years because at best... he's a closer and at worst... he's a setup guy. ALSO... if Chris Young and Jon Rauch are on the same team we'd have the tallest pitching staff in the majors. 2 years and $10-12 Million. Whether he's our closer or our setup guy/insurance policy I think I'm willing to do that.

Then The Phillies Ruin EVERYTHING:

Jonathan Papelbon (31) - Signs a 4 year $50 Million deal that throws all of my numerology out of whack. Sure... it adds Ryan Madson into the mix but it also pumps up closer values a good bit. Bell (Who would still be a better signing then Papelbon should get more annual money than Jonathan (at 34 I don't know about years). The deal is bad for the Phillies and I'm happy they made it on one hand but on the other... it adds $1-4 Million to each one of my projected yearly salaries.

Hot Stove: - Jonathan Broxton, Darren Oliver, Juan Rivera, Roy Oswalt, Mark Buehrle

Jonathan Broxton  Age: 28  Position: RP  2011 Stats:1-2, 5.68 ERA, 1.895 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 7 SVs CURRENT TEAM: DODGERS  BEST FIT: METS  The 300-pound Broxton was one of the game's premier power relievers between 2006 and '10 -- he averaged 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings during that stretch, with an ERA of 3.00 and 77 saves -- but arm trouble ruined his 2011, and he pitched in just 14 games, with very poor results. He might well never be the same. But none of the players this low on the Reiter 50 is a sure thing, and Broxton's age, potential and likely low salary would make him a better signing that a lot of the other players not on this list -- like Clint Barmes, Yuniesky Betancourt, David DeJesus, Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada -- for a rebuilding, closer-needy team like the Mets.

Darren Oliver (41) – Unfortunately for Oliver, he profiles as a type-A free agent. Despite the fact that he has put up an ERA under three every season since the start of 2008, teams should be reluctant to part with a first round draft pick to acquire the 41 year old. It’s possible that the Rangers offer arbitration and that Oliver accepts. or they work out a one-year deal in order to avoid arbitration all together. http://www.bloguin.com/theoutsidecorner/2011-articles/november/2012-free-agent-primer-top-10-left-handed-relievers.html

The Dodgers will sign Juan Rivera to a one-year deal worth $4.5MM, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (on Twitter). The deal, which is pending a physical, would guarantee the outfielder $4.5MM. The Dodgers and Rivera's representatives at SFX were closing in on a deal earlier in the week. It appears that the deal will include an option for 2013. - http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/dodgers-to-sign-juan-rivera.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Roy Oswalt: This would be an intriguing possibility for the Nationals, who could certainly benefit from Oswalt's experience and success. The only red flag is his back, which limited him to 23 starts this season in Philadelphia and probably will remain an issue for the rest of his career. If the Nats are willing to accept the 34-year-old won't be throwing 200 innings for them, he could be a nice addition. But they might need more of a sure thing out of a No. 3 starter. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/dodgers-to-sign-juan-rivera.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Though he says his client is "wide-open," agent Jeff Berry indicated that Mark Buehrle might prefer to sign with a National League team this offseason. "Mark is not going to eliminate any team from free-agent consideration," Berry said. "But having pitched 12 years in the American League, the National League certainly will have some appeal to him. There is no DH. It’s obviously less of a hitter’s league. And Mark has had great success in his career against the National League." Buehrle is 24-6 with a 3.32 ERA lifetime against NL teams. The lefty hasn't hid the fact that he'd love to pitch for his hometown Cardinals before his career is over, but their rotation is currently full. The Marlins, Cubs and Nationals could have interest. http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/344914/baseball-headlines?r=1

Yet Another Alternate Approach

So far...

Plan A: Resign Reyes AND Sign Sabathia, Wilson or Darvish

While this might cost more money than anyone is willing to believe the Wilpon's would invest, it also is the simplest. You maintain the hitting talent on the team establish a new anchor for the rotation and have the base in place for the emergence of Generation 2K in 2013 and 2014.

Plan B: Trade Davis for Pitching and Sign Albert Pujols

People doubt the ability to trade Davis for a TOP pitcher and I agree to an extent, but with his low price tag and some players like Kershaw and Price rapidly losing their status as "bargains" it's not OUT OF THE QUESTION. Then, of course, the Mets are replacing the fans lost by parting with Reyes with Pujols frenzy. At least the team is changing the field's dimensions so getting a slugger is no longer impossible.

Plan C: Sign Reyes and Trade David Wright

Most ways that this option gets cut, the Mets end up with a bevy of prospects and a dismal 2012. That isn't the end of the world. The Mets HAVE talent working its way rapidly to the majors and getting more would increase the chances of finding success when they do.

So... now I have to come up with a Plan D. I suppose this will be easier than Plan E and F etc... but it's becoming a bit daunting. So I'm going to go with something that is hardly revolutionary.

Step One: Remains re-signing Reyes. The kid (can I call him that? Probably not legitimately) means too much to the team and its fans to replace. It sures up the front of the Met lineup and means that the speedy 1, 2, 3 of Reyes, Pagan and Wright is still in place. It also means not having to replace Reyes from a free agent scrap-heap or through a not-so-amazin' farm system of SS's.

Step Two: Closers Closers Closers
I like Bobby Parnell... but I can't tell you that I'm confident he'll EVER be the closer of the future for the Mets. He's got stuff and that is great, but without confidence it doesn't have meaning and that is what counts. So... as Alderson may have indicated already, I think the Mets spend some bank on getting a closer. Now... the first name I list in this capacity is familiar. Heath Bell: he's solid, has a history with the Mets and hasn't exactly looked like much of a "FLUKE" pitching for San Diego. Frankly... Bell scares me, he just seems like the kind of guy who will succeed EVERYWHERE but Queens. I don't have a rational reason for thinking this. So... that brings us to the NEXT option. Jonathan Papelbon: He's a big flashy name who has had success on a BIG-MARKET team and knows about performing on a big stage. He'll come with an unfortunate price tag, but we can't do much about that. There are other closers who would work: "The Return of" Francisco Rodriguez, Matt Capps, Brad Lidge, Francisco Cordero, Frank Francisco etc... Getting a closer shouldn't be hard but that isn't all I want the Mets to do.


If the Mets can't afford to improve their rotation in a significant way... we NEED to have one of the best darned pens in baseball. That means signing a big impact bullpen arm. For THAT job, I nominate Jonathan Broxton. I once had Broxton as the #1 fantasy closer... I suppose I had Gagne there too. I don't believe Broxton will be given the chance to close for a new team, but I DO believe he'll get a decent contract. I'm willing to have that team be the Mets because if we need to toss Big Pelf out there once every 5 games... I want to have guys who can get me through, not only the 8th and 9th but the 7th, 6th... and even 5th. (I have a lot of faith in our starters... don't I?)

Lineup:
1. Jose Reyes, SS (S)
2. Angel Pagan, CF (S)
3. David Wright, 3B (R)
4. Ike Davis, 1B (L)
5. Jason Bay, LF (R)
6. Lucas Duda, RF (L)
7. Josh Thole, C (L)
8. Ruben Tejada, 2B (R)

Bench:
Ronny Paulino, C (R)
Fernando Martinez, OF (L)
Daniel Murphy, Util (L)
Justin Turner, IF (R)
Nick Evans, Util (R)

Rotation:
Johan Santana, LHSP
Jon Niese, LHSP
R.A. Dickey, RHSP
Mike Pelfrey, RHSP
Dillon Gee, RHSP

Bullpen:
Heath Bell, RHRP
Jonathan Broxton, RHRP
Bobby Parnell, RHRP
Manny Acosta, RHRP
Pedro Beato, RHRP
Tim Byrdak, LHRP
Daniel Herrera, LHRP

This is my least favorite option thus far and I'm sure that you can see why. This team is not a fortuitous improvement over the 2011 Mets. ALTHOUGH... if Davis and Wright stay healthy all season and Jason Bay can continue some of the late season hitting he's shown then maybe it's all the Mets need. With Farvey and Familia potentially available for mid-late season call-ups and Collin McHugh and Chris Schwinden ready replacements for injuries... maybe all the Mets NEED is a little more gas in the bullpen tank.

The Mets and Free Agency

2012 Roster:

Lineup:
1.
2. Justin Turner/Daniel Murphy, 2B
3. David Wright, 3B
4. Ike Davis, 1B
5. Jason Bay, LF
6. Angel Pagan, CF (Arb*)
7. Lucas Duda, RF
8. Josh Thole/Ronny Paulino, C (Arb*) [Just Paulino]

Rotation:
1. Johan Santana
2. R.A. Dickey
3. Jonathan Niese
4. Mike Pelfrey (Arb*)
5. Dillon Gee

Bullpen:
CL.
SU. Pedro Beato
SU. Bobby Parnell
MR. Taylor Buchholz (Arb*)
MR. D.J. Carrasco
MR.
LR. Manny Accosta

Bench:
Ruben Tejada, SS/2B
Nick Evans, 1B/3B/OF
Jason Pridie, OF

Money: Assuming nobody is non-tendered and based on the fact nobody has earned a SUBSTANTIAL Arbitration raise the Mets will have around $75-80 Million Dollars committed to the group of names above. So the Mets will have between $20-45 Million Dollars to spend on new contracts.

Priority 1: Jose Reyes
The Mets can either pay Reyes what he wants, use Ruben Tejada (lacks power and speed), use Jordany Valdespin (lacks patience and fielding) or sign the shells of what once were Jimmy Rollins and Rafael Furcal. In short... the Mets HAVE to sign Reyes. I don't think he goes OVER $20 Million per year but even if he goes that high... you still have to do it. When you chose not to trade him (which was a nice thing to do for us fans) you also chose to sign him.

Priority 2: Replacing Beltran
There are a few corner outfielders who you could sign... I wonder if they would end up being major improvements over who we had. There are: Ryan Ludwick (33), Laynce Nix (31), Josh Willingham (33), Cody Ross (31), Michael Cuddyer (33), David DeJesus (32), Jason Kubel (29), Nick Swisher (31) or... Carlos Beltran (35). Stack them against Lucas Duda, Nick Evans, Fernando Martinez and Kirk Nieuwenhuis... there are surely a few I'd think about, but nobody I'd spend much money on.

Priority 3: Rotation Needs Tune Up
Mets have a full rotation for 2012. Santana, Dickey, Niese, Pelfrey and Gee... that's five. I just don't know if Santana cuts it as the only "Front-Line" starter on the team. Sure Niese has moments of looking pretty awesome but Pelfrey and Gee are Back-end pitchers no matter how you slice them. The way I see it there are two options: C.J. Wilson (31) and Yu Darvish (25). Yu will cost more (overall) but also sign a smaller contract (it's the way that posting ends up working). Wilson is the best combination of age, stuff and competence in the upcoming free agent class and he will have suitors galore. Here's the rub. Beyond them, I wouldn't call any of the free agent starters more than #3 pitchers in the Met rotation and that isn't worth it.

Priority 4: Who's Closing?
There is actually a good list of candidates and the Met vacancy can probably be filled without breaking the bank. We just may have to reach towards the bottom of this list to do it cheaply. Closers in terms of value highest to lowest: Heath Bell (34), Jonathan Papelbon (31), Matt Capps (28), Francisco Rodriguez (30), Jonathan Broxton (28), Frank Francisco (32), Francisco Cordero (37), Jon Rauch (33), Brad Lidge (35) and Joe Nathan (37). Face it, the Mets will need one of these guys for a short-term solution... even if Mejia ends up the closer of the future.

Priority 5: Angel In The Outfield?
Is Angel Pagan a non-tender candidate? I don't think he should be... at least... not the same way I think Pelfrey should. However I'm not sold that he deserves the starting job in CF. The Mets REALLY only have one prospect who can play CF and is close to ready (and he's injured), Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Meanwhile they could take a stab at Grady Sizemore (29) succeeding in a new environment.

Priority 6: Waiting For Lefty
Guess who needs a LOOGY... again. O'Connor might work out for the Mets but until then... my sights are set on holding onto Chris Capuano as the #6 starter/LOOGY for the 2012 season. Other lefties: Tim Byrdak (38), Mike Gonzalez (34), John Grabow (33), Javier Lopez (34), Hideki Okajima (36), J.C. Romero (36) and George Sherrill (35).

Phlavio's 2012 Roster:

Lineup:
1. Jose Reyes, SS (S)
2. Daniel Murphy, 2B (L)
3. David Wright, 3B (R)
4. Ike Davis, 1B (L)
5. Angel Pagan, CF (S)
6. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, RF (L)
7. Jason Bay, LF (R)
8. Josh Thole, C (L)

Rotation:
1. Johan Santana
2. Yu Darvish
3. Jonathan Niese
4. R.A. Dickey
5. Dillon Gee

Bullpen:
CL. Jonathan Broxton
SU. Bobby Parnell
SU. Pedro Beato
MR. Taylor Buchholz
MR. Mike Gonzalez
LR. D.J. Carrasco
LR. Chris Capuano

Bench:
Ronny Paulino, C (R)
Justin Turner, IF (R)
Lucas Duda, LF/RF/1B (L)
Nick Evans, LF/RF/1B/3B (R)
Josh Satin, IF (R)

Summary: Sign Jose Reyes. Mike Pelfrey is either non-tendered or traded depending on interest. You hold an open competition for RF with Duda, Evans, Nieuwenhuis and Fernando Martinez. I decided Kirk won... which is arbitrary. Win posting rights and sign Yu Darvish. Sign Broxton to a short-term contract and allow him to find himself. Bring back Capuano and sign Mike Gonzalez (adds closer depth and a valuable lefty) because having only one lefty in the pen is dumb.