Tom Brennan - SUBS AND SCRUBS

Tom Brennan - SUBS AND SCRUBS

It's great to have great players in your starting lineup, but seasons are often won or lost by how the marginal guys do (or don't).

How did the Mets' offensive subs do in 2016?  my own definition is a sub is a guy healthy most of the year who had 300 or less at bats.  Let me list them in my perceived performance order, add some commentary, and draw some conclusions:

BEST OF THE BUNCH

Simply put, these guys really helped secure the Wild Card:

JOSE REYES - more starter than sub after his midseason acquisition, Jose energized the Mets with a stat line of  .267/.326/.443, while leading the league in smiles per game.  Showed surprisingly nice pop and great enthusiasm, while manning a new position at 3B.  Grade A.

TJ RIVERA - a guy who hit .333 in 105 at bats, with 8 extra base hits.  He gets an A grade in his limited major league action.

KELLY JOHNSON - despite going 10 for 48 after August, KJ was AOK in 2016 as a Met.  In his 183 Met at bats, he hit .268 with 9 dingers. I give him B+.

PRETTY GOOD FOR A SUB

James Loney - filled in nicely at 1B for the injured Lucas Duda, but his late-season fade and lack of power and speed make him only about the 20th best 1B in the National League.  Just 3 homers and 13 RBIs in 155 at bats after July is inadequate for a MLB starting 1B.  Thanks, however, for the very solid .265/.307/.397 and solid glove work. Grade: B

Rene Rivera - fine catching, weak bat - he actually did better with the stick than I expected, going .222/.291/.341 in 185 ABs.  I give him a B-.

Ty Kelly - limited playing time (55 at bats), slow start, finished strong (at .241/.352/.345). Grade B-

Brandon Nimmo - hit well enough (.274) besides his impressive AAA season, but just 2 extra base hits in 79 plate appearances is disappointing and sub-par for a major leaguer.  Grade B-

Juan Lagares - the top sub at the start of the season, he grossly disappointed, getting hurt for too long again, and was .239/.301/.380 in over 150 plate appearances with just 9 RBIs (the same number that pitcher Tony Cloninger once had in a single game - OUCH).  He helped make the Bruce acquisition a necessity.  Grade is C-.  But - Tommie Agee went from horrific in 1968 to indispensable in 1969.  May Juan's 2017 be a healthy and similarly indispensable year for Lagares...but dive too much and your season will too.

Matt Reynolds - he had a few good moments, but his .225/.266/.416 numbers in over 90 plate appearances were too Ruben Tejada-like.  Grade C-

SUBPAR SUBS - SOME 2016 stinkin' scrubs

very small performances deserve small letters: 

alejandro de aza - lots of moolah for a lousy player, who did revive somewhat later in the season - .205/.297/.321 was not what Sandy envisioned.  Grade D-

kevin plawecki - expected to be the Mets' active # 2 catcher with an improved bat, he was - well, awful: 137 at bats, .197, .288/.265.  Grade D-

eric campbell - he petered out well before the start of 2016, and 2016 was ugly for him: .173/.284/.227.  Awful as David Wright's brief replacement.  He did us one huge favor - made the mid-season signing of Jose Reyes a necessity. Grade: F

INCOMPLETE

RUGGIANO AND CECCHINI - combined they hit about .340 - sadly, that spanned just 26 at bats.  Maybe better in 2017, who knows?

MORE THAN A SUB

WILMER FLORES - more starter than sub, if it were not for his boneheaded face first slide into the plate in September, he might have had 400 at bats.  Really rough start to his season, rebounded nicely until his dumb slide ended his season.  I'd give him a B-, but I believe he can do better, perhaps much better.   Maybe Turner/Murphy better?

Overall, what all of the above tells me is: 

1) don't spend too much at the bargain bin for aging players (de Aza); and 

2) not to the extent of the utterly miserable subs of 2015 before Johnson and Uribe arrived, cheap fixes in 2016 nonetheless provide well-below acceptable offensive results more often than not.

So Sandy, don't go cheap here.  The fingers-crossed, penny-pinching stuff can lose pennants as a result.

Mack Ade – Questions and Answers - Team Building, Mrs. Mack, Jerry Blevens, Sour Writing, Jimmy Armet

Good morning.

Let’s get right to it.

Brian asked –

            Hey Mack. I know you’re high on Thor and Cespedes. Past that, how would you be building this team?

                        Mack – Hey Brian. Glad to hear from you again.

First all, the current team has some very good players that are under team control and have not reached their arbitration years. Michael Conforto, Steven Matz, Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, Brandon Nimmo, and T.J.Rivera. all fall in this category.

Add to that the two seasons left (team control) for Matt Harvey and Jeurys Familia, the three seasons for Zack Wheeler, Travis d’Arnaud, and Wilmer Flores, the four seasons left for Jacob deGrom, and the five seasons left for Noah Syndergaard, Conforto, and Matz and (with Cespedes) you have only 14 core players to build a future roster with.

Moreover, seven of these are starting pitchers and two (Rivera, Nimmo) are most probably utility players.

I can’t do much about 2017 unless I can clear salary. I have $67mil+ tied into one year deals that expire at the end of the season.

What I can do is make sure two of my top prospects, Dominic Smith and Amed Rosario, are called up at some point this season. Now 16 core players.

I also would fast track my three ex-college top tier prospects, Justin Dunn, Tomas Nido, and David Thompson. I want them ready for 2018. I know in my heart that, if I have eight top tier starters, I can deal two of these for at least two top tier position players.

Lastly, I would double the money committed to the International Draft and continue to invest in the number of scouts needed to improve the return of that process as well.

Beyond that, all I can do is put the names on the board that I currently have, both for 2017 and 2018, and go from there –

                                                2017                                                  2018

            1B:                              Lucas Duda                          Dominic Smith

            2B:                              Neil Walker                          Wilmer Flores

            SS:                              Astrubel Cabrera                  Amed Rosario

            3B:                              David Wright                        David Wright

            UTIF:                          T,J. Murphy                                     TBD

            UTIF:                          Wilmer Flores                                 TBD

            LF:                               Yoenes Cespedes               Yoenes Cespedes

            CF:                              Curtis Granderson                        TBD

            RF:                              Michael Conforto           Michael Conforto

            UTOF:                        Jay Bruce                                          TBD

            UTOF:                        Juan Lagares                        Juan Lagares

This is what’s on my current board and, if you think we don’t have enough for 2017, trust me… 2018 currently looks like a disaster.

Tony asked –

            Hey Mack, hope things are going well. I read on one your earlier posts that Mrs. Mack was having some medical problems. Do you have an update on my favorite brownie maker?

Mack – Sure Tony. Mrs. Mack was diagnosed with first stage Thyroid cancer and she had her complete thyroid gland and lymph nodes removed this past Thursday. She has begun post-operative treatments the doctor wants her to participate in and I’m doing all the cooking and washing of the dishes. Thanks for asking.

Tomi asked - 

             Of the players still unsigned via free agency, who do you wish the Mets would go after?

                    Mack - First of all, let's look who is still out there - 

                    Mark Trumbo, Jose Bautista, Jason Hammel, Matt Wieters, Mike Napoli, Greg Holland, Travis Wood, Neftali Feliz, Brandon Moss, Luis Valbuena, Nick Hundley, Chase Utley, Rajai Davis, Angel Pagan, Adam Lind, Pedro Alvarez, Kurt Suzuki, Colby Rasmus,  And relief pitchers Joe Blanton, Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Fernando Salas, Boone Logan, Jerry Blevins, ).

                        I would first Blevins a decent 2-year deal and make him my LOOGY. He pitched in 73 appearances for the Mets last year and went 4-2, 2.79. I don't care how old he is. He deserves it and solves the LOOGY slot for two years.

                       If I can't get Blevins, I would have gone after the right hand throwing Storen. He sort of put his career back together last year for Seattle (19-G, 3-0, 3.44, 0.87) and I wanted him on my mound when the Nats, who gave up on him,  come to town. Too late... he signed a one year deal with Cincy.

                        Past that, I can't consider any every day players until I move either Jay Bruce or Curtis Granderson.


Michael asked –

            Mack, I’ve noticed that your writing and comments have gotten to be a little more negative about the Mets, in general, and Sandy Alderson, in particular. Any reason?

                        Mack. Thanks for the question Michael.

            It has, for a myriad amount of reasons. I think it comes with being a fan since 1962 and getting so little in return for that loyalty. I also think the playoffs two years ago reminded long time followers like me just what another championship year could have been.

            As for Sandy, he just doesn’t do enough. His drafts have been basically unsuccessful (other than Michael Fulmer which produced the Yoenes Cespedes trade, and maybe Michael Conforto, Brendan Nimmo, and Robert Gsellman), the participation in the International draft has been minimum, and his trades, though successful, when he finally pulls one off, are minimal.

            Frankly, I think he’s been lucky the last couple of years by filling in his 25-man roster with second and third level free agents that have overproduced.

            I think that the fact that I write about this team strengthens my fandom. Living in South Carolina, I have very little exposure to them, and now that there no longer is a minor league affiliate in the area, I have very little reason to follow this team other than participating on this blog.

And lastly...

          When I grew up in Ozone Park/Richmond Hill, there were six of us that kept each other from going in the wrong direction.

           Louis Sarasy, Bobby Rugan, Norman Shoemacker, Frankie Wolf, myself, and Jimmy Armet were the "gang" we called 'BASS'.

          The 6-9 Armet was the pitcher for our softball team that lost less than 20% of the games we played on the hard court at P.S. 62.

Jimmy passed from complications of diabetes on January 1st and joined Billy, who died over 10 years ago.

          R.I.P, Big Guy



We haven’t done this ‘Q and A’ thing in months and I miss it. Please send your questions to: macksmets@gmail  so I can add you to my next Q and A post. 

Tom Brennan – RIGHTEOUS RIGHTIES

Tom Brennan – RIGHTEOUS RIGHTIES

The word RIGHTEOUS on the internet was noted to be defined as “(of a person or conduct) morally right or justifiable; virtuous.” A more informal definition given is “very good; excellent, e.g., righteous bread pudding".   I happen to love bread pudding, righteous or otherwise.

I also love “righteous” (very good to excellent) Mets minors righty prospects.  Which do I like the most?  Well, after writing about Progressive Lefties a few days ago, I knew you’d righteously ask me that question, and I will attempt to answer it equally righteously.  All right?  All right.

Righteous righties can throw fastballs with righteous anger, with anger levels detected by a radar gun.

 We sure have some fire-breathing fireballers at the big league level (Thor, Harvey, Jake, Zach, Gsellman, Lugo, Familia, Robles, and Reed) can all bring the cheese.  But this is about the minor leaguers, so let's quit dawdling, Tom, OK?  

OK, OK, relax, chill out, will ya, here's my Righteous Righty Twelve:

PAUL SEWALD - OK, he does not throw righteous high heat, but he is righteously effective, including an excellent AAA seaon in 2016.  Need more details?  See one of the 20 or so 2016 articles I did on Sir Paul.

LOGAN TAYLOR - hard thrower and big guy who had a very solid but not great year in AA.  2017 may tell us whether Mr. Taylor makes it to Queens.  In 2016, he pitched really well early on, but struggled after June, but still finished with an impressive 99 Ks in 86 IP.

TIM PETERSON - is a hard throwing right reliever, who is 12-4, 3.59 in 139 career outings with 250 Ks in 205 IP; throwing in A and AA last year, he K’d 85 in 62 IP and has good control – he should be fascinating to watch in 2017.

LUIS MATEO – while less impressive on strikeouts than Peterson, Luis, will turn 27 in March, having missed the better part of 2 seasons with the ubiquitous Tommy John surgery.   But in the year plus that he pitched in 2015 and 2016 (mostly in AA), he fanned 76 in 89 IP, and in 68 relief appearances, compiled a nifty 2.41 ERA.

KEVIN MCGOWAN – K Mack missed April and May in 2016, but when he pitched (38 relief outings, 4 starts), he was real good – 5-1, 2.35, and a K per inning.  He also pitched an effective 1.2 innings in Las Vegas, which he will probably someday he will tell his grandkids about (yep, boys, I went into the Valley of the Shadow of Death, and I survived).  A Pelfrey-sized righty.

COREY TAYLOR – a man of girth at 5’11”, 245, Taylor closed for St Lucie in 2016, and saved 20 of 23, and has a 1.77 ERA after 63 outings spanning 2 years, following his 7th round selection in 2015. 61 K’s in 71 innings – his 2017 in AA should be a good test for him.

BEN GRISET - this righty reliever was outstanding for St Lucie in 2016, with a 1.80 ERA in 32 outings spanning 60 innings with a sweet 68 Ks in 60 IP, all even more impressive than his stint in Savannah the year before, when he tossed to a 2.97 ERA.  He is sure to be a Rumble Pony in 2017.

TYLER BASHLOR – after real challenging arm issues caused him to miss not months but seasons, he made it back in 2016 in A ball, and did very nicely, with 73 Ks in 55 IP; 4-3, 2.75 ERA in relief.  Perhaps he will close for St Lucie in 2017.

COREY OSWALT – he also had injury issues making him miss part of 2016, but he did fan 71 in 69 innings, for St Lucie, mostly.  He has a somewhat high career WHIP of 1.30, and he may show himself less than sufficiently righteous, but I thought the same about Matt Koch, and he made the majors successfully in 2016. 2017 will be big for Corey, who pitched well in the AFL the fall, too.

JUSTIN DUNN – the 2016 first round selection had a great innings-restricted debut in Brooklyn (30 IP, 35 K, 1.50 ERA).  Probably the righteously hardest thrower in this entire group, topping out in the high 90s, he should rocket towards the bigs very quickly.

HAROL GONZALEZ – he had a truly dominant stretch in Brooklyn in 2016.  Despite allowing an uncharacteristic 4 runs in 3.2 innings in his last outing, he finished up 7-3, 2.01 with 85 Ks in 83 IP.  His buddy Merandy Gonzalez did well too.

JOE ZANGHI – tough looking guy (his photo reminds me of Harvey), he had one heckuva relief season in Brooklyn (8 for 8 saves, 1.23 ERA, and a jaw-dropping 45 Ks in 29.1 IP).  Let’s see how the 2015 24th round overachiever  handles full season ball.

Lots of competent righties...but few are like our big league team’s ultra-righteous cannons - how many of these prospects are truly righteous enough to make the bigs remains to be seen.

Arbitration - RP - Addison Reed

Matt Swartz over at www.mlbtr.com wrote a feature today on Addison Reed and his arbitration issues. Please read it.

A partial –

Putting this together, it makes sense that Reed should fall somewhere between a $2.12 and $3.27MM. I suspect right in the middle at $2.7MM would make sense, putting him at $8MM. It is a far cry from the model’s $10.6MM projection ($11.1MM ignoring the Kimbrel Rule), but it definitely would be a healthy raise for Reed’s third year of eligibility.

Richard Herr - So Whaddya Think? - 9

Long-Term Relationships

“So whaddya think?”

“Whaddya mean? What do I think?”

“Whaddya think the Mets should do about signing the young pitchers?”

“They should proceed with all deliberate haste.”

“Should they proceed deliberately, or in haste?”

“All of the above.”

“Guess what? You’re not making any sense.”

“I’m a big baseball fan. None of us make sense.”

“I suppose that could make sense.”

“Does it?”

“No. But I can suppose that it does, so I will. Let’s try the ‘deliberate haste’ thing again.”

“The Mets should start talking to the young guys now. That’s the haste part of it.”

“What’s the deliberate part of it?”

“They gotta listen to what the answer is from those guys. They also have to see how some of them are doing coming out of surgery.”

“Yeah, but where would you put your preferences?”

“The first guy I’d go after is Syndergaard.”

“Why?”

“The big one is: he didn’t have surgery. But that ain’t all. He comes in second on the team in swagger.”

“Second?”

“Yeah, Cespedes is first. And I think swagger is a very important thing for this club to have. There’s a few too many guys on this team who are shrinking violets. They need guys like Syndergaard to lead the charge past the opponent.”

“Okay, Syndergaard. Who’s next?”

“DeGrom.”

“Why?”

“He’s done well for a couple of years, and he had a minor operation. But you’ve got to check him out in spring training.”

“What about Harvey?”

“I was coming to him.”

“So?”

“I got just two words to say about him.”

“And they are?”

“Scott Boras, Harvey’s agent. He’s always been known to go for the highest dollar, no matter what.”

“Do you think Harvey agrees with him?”

“He did pick him for an agent.”

“True.”

“But you’ve got to make him--them an offer. Who knows he may get swept up in a big World Series run and gets the Mets religion and tells Boras to sign with the Mets on a fair offer.”

“What do you think are the chances of that happening?”

“About five percent.”

“That sounds about right.”

“I don’t think Harvey’s gonna cut a home-town deal. He chose Boras because he wants money. Also he was a Yankee fan as a kid.”

“So you don’t think he’s giving the Mets a deal?”

“If you’re asking what I think, I think he spends his spare time at Joseph Aboud getting fitted for pinstripes.”

“So they shouldn’t make him an offer?”

“No, they should make him an offer. I’m sure Boras will tap dance his way around and draw out the negotiations.”

“What then?”

“I hope Harvey has a super year. I hope he’s absolutely fabulous for the Mets. Then, if they don’t have a deal in place, Sandy should trade him for a bucketful of prospects or established players.”

“They should trade him away after a good year?”

“That’s right. Way back when, Branch Rickey said it’s better to trade a guy a year too soon rather than a year too late.”

“So?”

“In these modern times, ‘a year too soon’ is a year before free agency; ‘a year too late’ is when he’s gone in free agency.”

“So the Mets should let Harvey go?”

“That’s how I read it.”

“Okay, what about Matz and Wheeler?”

“We should hold onto them while we see what their health is like this season.”

“So that’s your plan?”

“You bet.”

“Do you think it’ll work?”

“I most certainly do. There’s just one problem.”

“What’s that?”

“They also thought the Titanic would work, and you know what happened to that.”

Whenever Richard Herr isn’t solving all the Mets’ problems, he spends his time writing humorous science fiction novels.

You can see his books at https://www.amazon.com/Richard-Herr/e/B00J5XBKX4.

Reese Kaplan -- An Alternate Alderson History

The benefit of hindsight is that it’s 20-20, so as a follow up to the last piece in which I chronicled the many successes and failures of Sandy Alderson’s tenure, what could have been done differently to put the club onto a faster track to competitiveness and/or financial stability that would enable them to spend like a big market team?

I was the lone wolf howling about the whole David Wright debacle when they announced they were considering signing him to an enormous extension.  He’d come off an opening season in 2009 at Citifield in which he hit .307 but with only 10 HRs and 72 RBIs.  He rebounded pretty well in 2010 with a slash line of .283/29/103 though his strikeouts skyrocketed to 161.  The 2011 injury plagued season was another bad one for Wright as he hit only .254, the lowest mark of his career, slugged 14 home runs and drove in 61.  In 2012 he had an up year again, with a .306/21/93 mark, a tad off his power numbers for his career, but certainly respectable. 

During the 2010/2011 off-season the whole Bernie Madoff mess came to light and it pushed the Mets from large market darlings to feasting on crumbs and table scraps when it came to personnel.  Granted, there were a number of bad contracts doled out by Alderson’s predecessor, Omar Minaya, including Luis Castillo, Oliver Perez and the ongoing payments being made to Bobby Bonilla.  However, it soon became clear to everyone with the salary dump of Carlos Beltran the Mets were pretty much broke.

Consequently when the 2012 off season arrived it was amazing, puzzling and stomach churning that the club would reach out to reward Wright with the largest contract in team’s history in the vain attempt to create their own Derek Jeter-like legacy.  His 7 year extension was valued at $138 million, just shy of $20 million per year for the duration.  Now had he continued to hit as he did in 2010 for the next few years consistently, then perhaps you could make the case it made sense.  However, the club was obviously mortgaged to the hilt and this one contract would hamstring them from pretty much any other significant efforts to improve the club. 

So what if they had gone in another direction at the end of the 2012 season and instead put David Wright on the trading block as pretty much any other small market budget team would do when a home grown star was no longer deemed within the budget?  Look at Minnesota right now fielding offers for Brian Dozier.  It’s a well-worn business practice that could create an alternate history for what unfolded in the subsequent years. 

Carlos Beltran was a fading star with arthritic knees who netted a single prospect – Zack Wheeler – as a late season rental.  He was five years older than Wright, earning the same money they would eventually give Wright, and most felt he had at best a year or two left. 

What then could Wright have netted in trade?  At age 29 in his prime and considered healthy, it would be reasonable to assume he could have landed the team 2-4 young players or top prospects.  As a frame of reference, let me cite a few trades.

In 2003 the Montreal Expos were fighting for a pennant and sent three young prospects to Cleveland for a much more svelte 29 year old Bartolo Colon and non-entity Tim Drew (career record of 2-4/7.02 ERA) for Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips. 

That same year the Twins traded rising catching star A.J. Pierzynski to the San Francisco Giants for Francisco Liriano, Joe Nathan and Boof Bonser.  While Pierzynski has had a long career as a hitting-first catcher, Liriano and Nathan provided a lot of quality for many seasons. 

In 2007 the Atlanta Braves sought to fortify their lineup for a pennant drive so they approached the Texas Rangers for 27 year old Mark Teixera who found greater stardom later with the Yankees.  All they gave up were Elvis Andrus, Netafali Feliz, Matt Harrison, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and minor leaguer Beau Jones.  All Texas did was win two straight pennants, and the following year the Braves made it worse when they shipped Teixera to the Angels for immortals Casey Kotchman and a minor leaguer named Stephen Marek.

In 2008 the Baltimore Orioles robbed the Seattle Mariners when they peddled sore-armed 29 year old pitcher Erik Bedard to the northwest and obtained Adam Jones, Chris Tillman and George Sherrill.

Of course, the one that hits closest to home is when the Mets parlayed a Cy Young Award winner in R.A. Dickey to the Toronto Blue Jays for Noah Syndergaard, John Buck, Travis d’Arnaud and Wuilmer Becerra. 

It is therefore reasonable to assume that a healthy 29 year old David Wright could have netted the Mets at minimum two high quality inexpensive players and saved them most of $138 million.

Now, assuming the Mets had said two quality players and an extra $20 million or so of payroll money for the next several years, what could they have done differently?  Rather than cobbling together a team of with players like Andres Torres, Omar Quintanilla, Mike Baxter, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Bobby Abreu they could have been in on both the $9.5 million Jose Abreu and the $9.5 million Yulieski Gurriel?  Suppose they'd kept Justin Turner.  Suppose they'd kept Daniel Murphy.  That would be in addition to whatever they netted for Wright.

This game could be played all day, but if the club mixed in some younger players and greater cash flow, would it have been easier to entice more complete ballplayers to Queens than Frank Francisco, Antonio Bastardo and Curtis Granderson?  Would they have gotten to the World Series sooner than 2015 had they taken this approach? 

What do you say?

New Met - Edgardo Alfonzo

NEW YORK -- A franchise favorite will return to a prominent role in the Mets' organization this season. Class A Short-Season Brooklyn announced Thursday that Edgardo Alfonzo will become its manager in 2017.

An All-Star and National League Silver Slugger Award winner who spent eight of his 12 big league seasons with the Mets, Alfonzo enjoyed his best year with the pennant-winning 2000 team, batting .324 with 25 home runs and a .967 OPS. He ranks fifth in franchise history in hits and runs scored, sixth in batting average and doubles, seventh in walks and RBIs and ninth in home runs.

Now 43, Alfonzo rejoined the Mets as a club ambassador in 2013, becoming a member of Brooklyn's coaching staff one year later. He has also served as a Minor League special instructor, and he played professionally as recently as '12 in the Venezuelan Winter League. Three years ago, Alfonzo worked closely with another native Venezuelan, Wilmer Flores, during Spring Training.

http://m.mets.mlb.com/news/article/212914644/edgardo-alfonzo-to-manage-brooklyn-cyclones/