CodBall @codball
Kent Schmidt, 1B from GT Baseball, will play for Fal Commodores
this summer. Schmidt transferred from
Georgia Southern where in 56 games last spring he batted .321 with a .432 OBP,
drove in 42 runs, and produced a .857 OPS.
Jacob Rudner @JacobRudner
News: Touted Tennessee righty AJ Russell has continued to progress from elbow
surgery and the Vols now anticipate him pitching in the second half of the
season, which had been up in the air.
Russell has one of the best fastballs
in college ball.
Joe Doyle @JoeDoyleMiLB
Wake Forest shortstop Marek Houston is
one of the best gloves in the country. But 10 pounds stronger this spring,
Houston intends on becoming a force offensively.
Jacob Rudner
Some good news in Chapel Hill: UNC graduate righty Jake Knapp, who tied the ACC lead in starts in 2023,
appears on track to be ready for opening day after missing 2024 due to a torn
UCL. Knapp gives head coach Scott Forbes another experienced option in an
already-deep staff.
Tyler Jennings @TylerJennings24)
Something I was
notified of during our HS board prep: it appears that Arizona RHP Brett Crossland has transferred to Corona del Sol for
the spring per Prep Baseball AZ.
Crossland has been up to 97+ with great secondaries.
Potential Day 1 arm if strikes improve this spring.
Joe Doyle
St. Louis HS 2B/SS Bruin Agbayani hit
four homers today in the MLK West tournament in Arizona. He ranked as the No.
171 prospect in the 2025 Draft at FSS PLUS back in the September update.
And yes, that is Benny Agbayani's son.
And yes, you're getting old.
Tucker Biven, Louisville
There’s a case to be made that Biven, a late-inning lockdown
reliever for the Cardinals, has the single-best sinker in the country among
draft-eligible pitchers. He threw 35.1 innings last season accumulating 40
strikeouts and walking just 10 batters.
The average release height of an MLB pitcher in 2024 was 68
inches. Biven comes in four inches higher than that. His sinker averaged south
of 8 inches of IVB. Those two components, as well as his innate feel for
landing his sinker at the knees, resulted in an average vertical approach angle
VAA of -6.65°. Among those that threw at least 200 sinkers in college baseball
last season, Biven ranks 15th in steepest average VAA. But different than most of those 14 listed above
him, Biven knew where his sinker was going.
Biven sat 92-94 last season and touched north of 96 mph. He
induced a 27-percent whiff rate on that pitch with an obscene 38-percent chase
rate. His sinker was not only heavy, but it averaged more than 16 inches of
arm-side tailing action as well. Biven is the only pitcher on this list to
check every box and he did so with room to spare in most cases.
Biven has the look of a reliever at the next level, but he’s
a good enough athlete that he could get drafted as a starter to begin his
career. He’s got the durable bulldog build, the athleticism in the delivery,
and he throws plenty of strikes. The sinker is complimented by a solid-average
slider and a curveball that’s been used sparingly. His changeup has come a long
way and might represent the highest-ceiling secondary in his arsenal,
especially with how it plays off the sinker. Should he hope to hold up across
the rigors of long innings, his up-tempo delivery may need to become more
deliberate. This should help keep his arm on time more frequently and eliminate
a mild stab he has as he breaks his hands. He belongs somewhere in the fourth
to sixth round range for me depending on how a team projects his future role.
Griffin Stieg, Virginia Tech
Another injured pitching prospect Stieg isn’t expected to
throw in 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Last season across 51.2
innings, Stieg struck out 48 hitters and walked just 13.
Stieg’s sinker is a hell-seeking missile. His launch height
is slightly lower than average, and his approach angle is also on the flatter
end of the spectrum, though not as outlier as Russell. What separates Stieg is
the elite amount of tailing action he generates with the sinker. There were
times he induced more than 23 inches of lateral action on his heater. He
averaged north of 20 inches squarely placing him in a small bucket of pitchers
both in the amateur and professional ranks. He was up to 97 last season and
routinely sat 92-95.
Stieg’s sinker needs to get more productive going forward
after generating just an 18-percent whiff rate in 2024. He also generated just
a 22-percent chase rate. Part of his current issue is well-below average
extension down the mound allowing hitters to pick the ball up out of the hand
early. Working to live near the top of the strike zone with the sinker could
unlock a bit more production with that pitch considering the flatter approach
angle. As it stands, his heater does not project to miss bats at-or-below the
belt. Stieg does keep hitters off the barrel by flashing a solid-average
sweeping slider and an above average changeup with diving action.
Stieg has the look of a high-octane reliever at the next
level. It’s difficult to get through a lineup twice if you can’t miss bats with
your fastball inside the strike zone. His three-pitch arsenal and
strike-throwing ability gives him a shot. Considering his lack of extension,
Stieg will likely need to be a guy who throws the slider and changeup a ton
should he hope to find success the second time through the lineup. He is a
fast-mover with a quick arm who could conceivably throw harder in shorter outings.
From this chair, Stieg belongs in the 5th to 8th round range
in July. He could sneak into the late-third or the fourth round if a team buys
into his chances to start as a pro. They’ll need to specifically have a plan
for generating more value from the outlier shape on his sinker.
Jacob Pruitt, Mississippi State
After spending two strong years at Indiana State, Pruitt
packed his bags for Starkville this past summer and enrolled at Mississippi
State. Last year Pruitt threw 41.2 innings striking out 57 hitters and walking
just five.
Pruitt is one of the more intriguing names on this list
thanks to his bat-missing stuff. Pruitt is another low-slot righty throwing
anvils. His sinker generates north of 19 inches of arm-side tailing action.
He’s been up to 96 and was ordinarily 92-94 in his outings last year. His 27.5
percent whiff rate on the sinker is exceptional. And he missed bats inside the
zone with it too. Pruitt doesn’t get many chases outside of the zone however.
What makes Pruitt successful is his breaking ball. His
sweeping slider is a mid-80s frisbee with big two-plane break. He’ll actually
drop his arm-slot a bit to get the shape he’s currently producing. Pruitt’s
slider induced a 41-percent whiff rate last season and an equally impressive
35-percent chase rate. He’s hardly shown the changeup in college baseball, a
part of his arsenal he’ll need to show if he hopes to start at the next level.
But it’s not just a third pitch. Pruitt will need to improve
upon his fringe-average control and command at the next level. He might have an
above average fastball and the makings of a plus breaking ball, but if he can’t
throw both when he wants his ceiling is capped. Pruitt is a fast-mover and will
likely always battle the strike zone. He tends to throw the front-shoulder open
early at launch at times, something inhibiting his ability to consistently
repeat his delivery. If he can get to a point where his feel for the zone is
even average, he’ll carve out a role as a big leaguer. From this chair, Pruitt
looks like another fifth-to-eighth rounder who could bump into the third/fourth
round range with more strikes and similar dominance in the SEC.
Xavier Richards, Georgia Gwinnett College
The sleeper of the bunch may be Richards. Reasonably
unheralded, Richards is coming off a sophomore year where he threw 36 innings
in relief. He struck out 38 batters and walked 14. He parlayed that into two
summer ball trips. One to the West Coast League where he pitched 10 innings for
Bend. He followed that up by pitching 4.1 innings on the Cape for Chatham. He
finished the summer with 14.1 innings under his belt, striking out 14 and
walked 8.
Richards left Sacramento State this fall and enroleld at
Georgia Gwinnett College.
Richards throws bowling balls. His sinker touched 96 last
season and averaged 92.5 mph. Despite being only 6-foot-3, Richards has a
77-inch release height. He’s throwing from the heavens and creating an average
vertical approach angle steeper than -6.8°. Coupled with his 13 inches of IVB
and almost 17 inches of arm-side run, it’s one of the steepest approach angles
in college baseball. And Richards was able to post a few sinkers with less than
10 inches of IVB. If he can find that shape with more consistency, the results
will only improve.
Richards also throws a four-seam fastball that possesses
above-average carry through the zone, however that pitch did not perform as
well as the sinker, nor is it as unique. From this chair, given the release
traits, Richards should stick to the latter.
As one might imagine, Richards’ ground ball rate is an
impressive 49 percent. But his results aren’t exclusive to soft contact. He
posted a 26-percent whiff rate on the sinker in 2024 and generated a 33-percent
chase rate. It’s been an effective pitch.
Richards slider is another good weapon. It’s a mid-80s
breaker with two-plane tilt. That pitch generated a 56-percent whiff rate and a
31-percent chase rate as well.
This is a relief prospect through and through. Richards has
tons of effort in his delivery with head-whack at release. He has done a nice
job throwing strikes, but he projects into a low-to-mid leverage role at the
next level. If the metrics stay where they were in 2024 or improve a bit, he
projects as an arm who goes in the back-half of the 2025 Draft.
Just Baseball: 2025 MLB Draft – Top 80 College Prospects
https://www.justbaseball.com/college/mlb-draft-top-college-prospects/?s=03
25. Cam Leiter – RHP
HT/WT: 6’5/234 | Bat/Throw: R/R | School: Florida State |
Age: 21.5
The latest Leiter to work his way through the ranks, Cam
transferred from UCF to Florida State and found immediate success in the
rotation.
While an injury cut his season short to just seven
appearances, Leiter’s stuff took a big jump forward under new coaching.
Leiter’s fastball has gotten up to 99 MPH and he’ll hold mid-90s velocity deep
into starts, missing bats thanks to a low release and elite extension despite
modest shape.
The upper-80s/low-90s slider is a powerful offering, flashing
cutter-esque shape, and became Leiter’s go-to swing-and-miss offering. It
projects better than the low-80s curveball presently, though that pitch has
exceptional depth and spin, plus there’s better command and feel.
There’s a mid-80s change-up in his arsenal, too, giving him a
viable weapon against left-handed hitters. It has the makings of a power
offering, though it can get a bit inconsistent.
Assuming there’s a clean bill of health (he had shoulder
surgery in the fall) and improved command, Leiter is trending toward a
legitimate starter mold and should hold down the Saturday spot behind teammate
Jamie Arnold.
31. Ben Jacobs – LHP
HT/WT: 6’1/195 | Bat/Throw: L/L | School: Arizona State |
Age: 21.1
After seeing limited time on the mound at UCLA, Jacobs
transferred to Arizona State and broke out as a sophomore, striking out 102
batters in 66.1 innings.
An athletic and well-proportioned southpaw with big arm
speed, Jacobs is a metric darling and has a ton of helium to his name after a
strong summer showcase. The fastball is quite electric.
While the velocity sat in the low-90s primarily, Jacobs’
heater plays up thanks to its lively nature, possessing huge carry upstairs
with good tailing action. Pair that with a lower release height and a flat
approach angle and you’ve got the recipe for a whiff machine.
Jacobs missed bats at a 33% clip in 2024 and with added
velocity, there’s a good chance that this heater grades out as plus. He’s more
than just the heater, though.
His low-80s slider is more of a firm, bullet-esque breaker
and flashes late teeth with lift, while the upper-70s curveball flashes big
depth and sweep, projecting better than the slider right now.
He has feel for a splitter in the low-80s that missed bats at
a 46% clip and flashed significant upside this summer. He’s shown better
command of his secondaries and looks to vault himself into legitimate
first-round conversation this spring.
34. Jalin Flores – SS
HT/WT: 6’2/210 | Bat/Throw: R/R | School: Texas | Age: 21.11
A draft-eligible sophomore in 2024, Flores seemed to be in
line for a big payday after an exceptional 2024 season, but he withdrew his
name and will return to Austin in 2025. The changes that Flores made between
his freshmen and sophomore campaigns were drastic, but paid dividends.
Flores became more aggressive at the plate, and while the
chase rate was a serious concern, he was able to post a 77% contact rate and
displayed no big flaws against velocity or spin.
Furthermore, Flores began to lift the ball more frequently
and his power began to stand out, especially to his pull side. He posted one of
the best ground ball rates in the country, too.
Given the pull-happy and aggressive nature, scouts would like
to see the chase rate come down and a happy medium to be found, which is
certainly plausible.
At 6’2, 210 pounds, Flores has the physicality to move to
third base and handle that position well, though he’s got the defensive prowess
and arm strength to handle shortstop, too. There’s no doubt that he’ll stay on
the left side of the dirt, but at which position is yet to be understood.
35. Brooks Bryan – C
HT/WT: 6’2/222 | Bat/Throw: L/R | School: Troy | Age: 20.11
Bryan has been one of the best-kept secrets in all of college
baseball over the past calendar year.
A physical backstop, Bryan’s calling card is exceptionally
good power, as he posted impressive exit velocities consistently as a
sophomore. He utilizes an upright, narrow stance pre-pitch before showcasing
explosive bat speed and lift through the zone, allowing him to tap into
above-average to plus power that plays best to his pull side.
Bryan does an excellent job of handling velocity and hammers
heaters, and while there are some issues with spin, he doesn’t expand the zone
at a high rate and draws a copious amount of walks.
It’s a well-rounded offensive profile. He’s a solid athlete
behind the dish, too. Bryan is a great blocker with a solid average arm and
sound footwork, allowing him to stick back there long-term.
44. Easton Carmichael – C
HT/WT: 6’1/200 | Bat/Throw: R/R | School: Oklahoma | Age:
21.8
After an admirable campaign as a true freshman, Carmichael
tore the cover off the baseball in 2024, slashing .366/.406/.563 with 31
extra-base hits in 61 games. Carmichael lives on the barrel and is growing more
into his power, which now grades out as fringe-average to average.
He’ll hammer liners to the gaps and has shown an ability to
get more leverage and loft into his swing and go out to both sides of the park.
His contact prowess stands out more currently, as he’s posted contact rates
over 75% in back-to-back seasons. He is very aggressive and his chase rate
ballooned in 2024, but the pure contact makes up for it.
Defensively, there are some questions about his future home.
He’s got quality athleticism and his blocking skills have improved, though his
arm strength is lackluster and limits his future value. An uptick in arm
strength will strengthen his draft stock.
43. Jasen Oliver – 2B
HT/WT: 5’11/182 | Bat/Throw: R/R | School: Indiana | Age:
21.1
A draft-eligible sophomore from Michigan, Oliver put together
a fantastic freshmen campaign, slashing .285/.362/.529 with ten home runs.
Don’t let the smaller frame fool you, Oliver has sneaky good power that plays
to both sides of the field.
He’s registered a 90th percentile exit velocity of 105 MPH
and a maximum over 110 MPH, though what is more impressive is the pure contact
skills that Oliver showcased in 2024.
Oliver’s crouched stance allows him to cover the zone very
well, posting a 94% in-zone contact rate and he handles velocity very well,
whiffing just 9% of the time in 2024. There are some warts with spin, though
the 81% overall contact rate is exceptional and Oliver rarely expands the zone.
In the field, Oliver has a flair for the dramatic. A bouncy
athlete, Oliver has advanced defensive chops at second base, displaying an
excellent first step and impressive range. He’ll have leverage given his
eligibility, but there are not many bats better than this in the Big Ten.
