If Bierd is selected in the Rule 5 draft, it won't be the first time, as the Orioles plucked him from Detroit in 2007. He stuck it out for the year, giving this prospect some Major League exposure, but was traded to the Red Sox. A year later he finds him self out there once again. During his minor league trek, Beird's walk rates have increased, but he's been a strikeout pitcher all along (9.2 K/9 in his minor league career, 8.1 in 2009 at Triple-A). I found that surprising, given he's a soft-tossing sinker baller. Not so surprising is the failure of these numbers to translate in the Major Leagues—Baltimore got him into 29 games and he gave up 4.7 BB/9 while striking out 6.1. The team that takes a chance on Bierd will get a guy with an 88 mph two-seam fastball and a low groundball rate. He hasn't shown a particular ability to pound the strike zone (he threw 47.6 percent strikes in MLB, .48.9% in the AFL). Oddly, Bierd missed bats at a higher rate in his MLB stint (.22.6 percent) than his more recent AFL games (18.6 percent). His ground ball rate also dropped from a rather pedestrian 41% to 36%.
Parisi is another pitcher with big league experience. Pitching for the Cardinals in 2008, the righty from Long Island went down with an elbow injury, eventually undergoing Tommy John surgery. Now he's back, and he's got a cutter. Parisi's bread-and-butter is a two-seam fastball that generally tails more than it sinks. It seems to be well complemented by the new cutter and his curveball. He's also developed into a groundball pitcher. His 57 percent groundball rate was in the top 15 of the AFL, and is a big improvement from the 42 percent he had put up in the big leagues. Parisi just came back from his injury (he threw just 15.1 innings between Rookie ball and High-A in 2009) but worked enough this fall to show he was healthy. While his velocity was down a touch, he was working as a starter in the AFL, not a reliever, and he did get his four-seam fastball up to 95 mph when he used it—his 92 mph sinker and 79 mph curveball bracketed the 87 mph cutter.
Speaking of groundball pitchers ... Wilkie tops Parisi with a 61 percent groundball rate that catches my eye (I'm a sucker for worm burners). Wilkie, another right-hander, Wilkie has no big league experience, but worked his way up to Triple-A in 2009. With one start in his career, he isn't exactly a closer (23 saves in 157 minor league games). Still, his walk rates have improved as he's aged and he strikes out plenty. Wilkie's two- and four-seam fastballs are nothing flashy, averaging around 88 mph, and his primary pitch is a low-80s change-up. In the AFL, he threw the change 56 times, the fastballs 23 each and his slider 19. AFL hitters couldn't lay-off the change (swing rate of 60.7 percent) or hit it often (whiff rate of 38.2 percent). But, when they did hit it, they nailed it. His change gave up a SLGCON (slugging percentage on contact) of 1.091. He didn't give up many fly balls or line drives off of it, but three of four air balls were line drives half of all the air balls were home runs. The good news is no one hit the fastballs or slider hard. Maybe he should throw them more. Then again, this sample is so small it's hard to be definitive. Despite this uncertainty, the 25-year-old from Tennessee could be an intriguing pick. - hardballtimes
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