Stephen Guilbert - 2012 Draft- Projected #s 1-4

Through research of the 2012 draft-eligible talent and taking into consideration a number of (often differing) expert opinions, here are the top four players for this summer’s draft, as it stands right now. Keep in mind, there is a season of baseball between now and the draft. Stock will change. This is simply what we are looking at right now.

#1- RHSP Mark Appel- Stanford Cardinals

Why ranked #1: Appel brings a fantastic combination of talent, experience, pedigree, and major-league readiness. He throws four pitches that project to plus offerings and should have a quick ascension to the majors if healthy.

Why the Mets would draft him: Better question is: Why not? Not much not to like when you have a groundball pitcher who sits in the mid-90s with strong secondary offerings and the ability to become a high-strikeout, high-inning, front of the rotation starter down the road. Oh and his best feature might be his pinpoint control. However, even with a poor showing in the spring, I do not think 11 teams will pass on Appel.

Throws: 4-seam fastball (mid-90s, peaks 99), circle change, slider, two-seam/cutter.

Ceiling: Durable, inning-eating, bona-fide ace.

(Mack: - Stephen asked me to chime in on his picks. I want to remind everyone that, two years, ago, at this point in the off-season, everyone had Anthony Renaudo as the stone lock first pick in the draft. Last year, it was Matt Purke.)

#2- RHSP Lucas Giolito- Harvard-Westlake High School, California

Why ranked #2: Giolito could easily overtake Appel with a strong spring. Scouts, bloggers, experts, and random draft fans will love his “size and projectability”. I am more impressed with the fact that, at 17 years old, Giolito already throws 5 pitches. Giolito has one of the highest ceilings of any player in the draft and it would take a very poor spring or an injury to see him fall past the Orioles at #4.

Why the Mets would draft him: Lucas is a player fans could get excited about and follow every step in the minors. Ceiling is enormous—a true, dominant ace. You simply cannot ignore the talent this kid has and if by some freak occurrence in the first half of the first round causes him to fall to the Mets, he would become the best pitching prospect in the system within a year. Crazy thing is, he is a “safe” pick as well as far as high school arms go, at least.

 

Throws: 4-seam fastball (mid to high 90s), 2-seam fastball, hard curve, slider, circle change.

Ceiling: True ace

Trivia: Giolito was Baseball America’s “Pitcher of the Year” in 2011.

(the drafting world has gone high school crazy and, ith the new rules, very few will pass for college now. Barring injuries, my guess is Lucas goes first.)

#3- SS Deven Marrero- Arizona State Sun Devils

Why ranked #3: Elite defensive shortstop who projects to be a potential annual contender for a gold glove in the majors. Strong hitting skills that could see him hit .300 in the bigs with solid speed. Not much power potential but the rest of the package is complete.

 

Why the Mets would draft him: He could be the shortstop of the future and will be close to the majors for whichever team drafts him. Defense of his caliber up the middle is hard to find. Add to that a potential .300 hitter with speed and you have an excellent prospect on your hands.

Tools: Plus-plus glove with range, good hands and arm, and instinct. Strong running both on the field and on the bases. Hits for a high average. More doubles power than home run power and does strike out.

Ceiling: Gold-glove, .300+ average at shortstop who could play in a handful of All-Star games before his career is over.

(Deven looks to be this draft's one great shortstop. He will never be around when the Mets pick 12th)

#4- OF Byron Buxton- Appling County High School, Georgia

Why ranked #4: Five-tool prospect, incredible athlete, sky ceiling. Should stick in centerfield due to his strong arm and blazing speed and has the power and contact ability as a pull hitter to complement his fielding prowess quite nicely.

Why the Mets would draft him: I would be ecstatic if God smiles at the Mets in June and Buxton falls to the Mets. I have read comparisons ranging from Upton to Ellsbury and they are all well-deserved. This kid has huge potential in every facet of the game and his athleticism will be tough to match by any other player in this draft. My mouth waters at the idea of a future Puello-Buxton-Nimmo manning Citi.

 

Ceiling: True 5-tool, All-Star center fielder on a championship club.

Trivia: Plays quarterback for the Appling County football squad.

(Buxton started shoting up the mock drafts around October and he now is consistently picked as the top outfielder in the draft.)

Up next week: Lance McCullers, Mike Zunino, Mike Gausman, Nick Williams, Gavin Cecchini, and Victor Roache.