10/2/13

Mack Ade – Morning Report – 10-2-13 – Mets DL, Steven Matz, Refinancing, Travis d’Arnaud

avatar - ouch

The following players were reinstated from DL: RHP Matt Bowman, RHP Luis Cessa, RHP Jake deGrom, RHP Michael Fulmer, RHP Matt Koch, RHP Luis Mateo, RHP Cory Mazzoni, RHP Dylan Owen, RHP Tyler Pill, RHP Mitch Talbot, RHP Logan Taylor, RHP Taylor Whitenton, RHP Ernesto Yanez, LHP Shane Bay, LHP John Mincone, LHP Jhonathan Torres, LHP Carlos Valdez, LHP Carlos Vazquez, 1B Joe Bonfe, 2B Reese Havens, 3B Aderlin Rodriguez, SS Chad Zurcher, OF Jorge Rivero.

Don’t you love how this works. All these guys are supposed to have some legitimate injury that keeps them off the playing field and then, low and behold, the season ends  and everybody is 100% healthy. It’s such bullshit.

 

Steven Matz. The fact that Matz was able to avoid any further arm injuries and pitch his first full season cannot be overstated. That's because the dynamic stuff from the left side that prompted the Mets to select him in the first round way back in '09 was readily apparent very early. Matz regularly touched 97 MPH with his electric fastball and made good strides with a curveball/change-up combo. Unleashing that repertoire over a full season led to spectacular numbers, including a 2.62 ERA, a .225 opponent average, and a nearly 30% strikeout rate. http://www.amazinavenue.com/2013/10/1/4788656/mets-minor-league-season-in-review

 

From MetsBlog - The Mets are beginning the process of trying to refinance roughly $250 million in bank debt, reports Josh Kosman of the New York Post. Regardless, it won’t affect the budget for player salaries in 2014, Kosman’s sources said. “The Amazin’s are in a better bargaining position with their lenders now than they were just two years ago,” and, “the value of all MLB teams has risen,” according to Kosman, who feels it is likely the team will be successful in it’s effort to refinance, which could then help increase payroll for 2015.

                Mack – This is why you don’t panic when you read about some writer/blogger tell you that this team is going into the financial crapper. The Wilpons had their financial crisis a year ago because of their investments vs. the economy, not one single investment, the Mets. The economy has returned and, with it, the value of the Wilpon portfolio. This will get them a more favorable interest rate and a longer period in which to pay off the money owed. Trust me… many business never pay off the principal on their notes. They just keep refinancing until they sell the property. The Mets financial picture is just fine. Now, we have to see if our General Manager has the stones to get us a lineup.

 

30. Travis d’Arnaud, C, New York Mets - Affiliate Team: New York Mets Age: 24 Ht/Wt: 6-2/195 Bats/Throws: R/R Drafted: 1st Round (37th overall), 2007  Travis d’Arnaud has been consistently ranked as the top catching prospect in baseball over the past couple of seasons. Despite fracturing his left foot in mid-April, d’Arnaud rebounded with a solid second half return that would include a big league promotion. Everything about d’Arnaud’s game suggested that a big league call-up was around the corner, as he possesses a compact swing that generates plus power and allows him to hit to all fields with relative ease. He has blossomed into a solid defender behind the plate and possesses a strong arm, as he projects to be a solid all-around, everyday catcher at the next level. http://baseballnewssource.com/prospects/bns-top-50-mlb-prospects-end-of-season-report-and-analysis/26685/22/

 

With the additions of Eric Young Jr., Juan Lagares and Matt Den Dekker, the Mets’ outfield defense has dramatically improved. Even with Young’s defensive weaknesses, his speed and ability to charge the ball make him mediocre at best, and Lagares looks like a perennial Glover next to him in the outfield so he’ll have protection in the gaps. There’s also still the possibility of moving Young to second base, which is his more natural position. A move to second base would allow him to continue to improve at the top of the batting order, where he’s been a valuable catalyst. http://throughthefencebaseball.com/new-york-mets-shin-soo-choo/38267#TR7pmuejp1QbXeFx.99

 

What outfield? Let's be honest: Eric Young Jr. has speed, but he's really a fourth outfielder. The Mets need to add sluggers for both corner-outfield spots, especially if the defensive-focused Lagares will be manning center field. Where are those boppers coming from? Adam Rubin - http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/78739/5-reasons-for-optimism-and-pessimism?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

 

Buddy3 asked –

Mack, can you see the Mets going for Choo at $16 or $17 per, Drew at $9 or 10 per and trying to sign Byrd on the cheap at 2 for $10. Byrd knows that Puello, Vaughn and Lawley are coming and the best he can get from the Mets is one full year and then a reserve role. Still leaves some money to add a veteran catcher, a few pitchers on minor league deals to supplement the rotation and bullpen. choo drew murphy wright byrd Davis/Satin TDA lagares/MDD that is not a bad lineup with our pitching

                Mack – First of all, I don’t see the Mets going over $15mil, 3-4 yrs for anyone. This is just what I think and feel at this point in the process. The Pence deal shows how crazy this is all becoming and I guess $20mil per year is going to soon become the new normal, but I see Alderson approaching this off-season knowing that he probably is never again going to have this much money to spend in one off season.

I’m sure the Mets will make an offer to Choo, but it will not be close to what he signs for. He’s a good player, but he’s going to get stupid money in a light FA market.

Drew is the kind of player you probably will see signed. Someone that will go in the $8-12 range for 2-3 years. Hopefully, you will see at least three of these kind of players.  Byrd and Beltran could be two more.

Outfield prospect wise, there are big hopes for Puello but Wilmer Flores is proving that hitting at the AAA level doesn’t mean you’re going to produce in the majors (yes I know, he was dinged). I love Lawley but he’s a long shot and you’re being very kind to Vaughn who has been a major disappointment.

I just don’t see an outfield solution this year. I would take four of your best mid-level pitching prospects and put together a three way that gets you Tulo on short. But, that’s just me…

10 comments:

Hobie said...

I guess that's the way the MinL juggling act works. Is there anyone left on the MinL DL? Activating now expands the trade fodder I suppose.

So now on to the MLB DL, and apropos to that, is there a definitive Rule 5 eligibility list available yet? We think of the trading season beginning with the Winter Meeting, but might SA engage earlier to better define the 40-man prior to Dec.?

Mack Ade said...

there is a Rule 5 list floating around n some of the Mets sites... some of the readers/writers here have it and, hopefully, will post it. The one I had was wrong.

Mack Ade said...

Here's what I have:

AAA --- Las Vegas 51s
Hamilton Bennett
Eric Campbell
John Church
Jacob deGrom
Reese Havens
Rylan Sandoval
Chris Schwinden
Jeff Walters

AA --- Binghamton Mets
Joe Bonfe
Darrell Ceciliani
Mark Cohoon
Allan Dykstra
Blake Forsythe
Ryan Fraser
Jim Fuller
Erik Goeddel
Darin Gorski
Chase Huchingson
Adam Kolarek
Greg Peavey
Cory Vaughn

A+ --- St. Lucie Mets
TJ Chism
Angel Cuan
Yucary De La Cruz
Gilbert Gomez
Kai Gronauer
Cam Maron
Bret Mitchell
Aderlin Rodriguez
Cody Satterwhite
Robbie Shields
Shawn Teufel
Carlos Vazquez
Taylor Whitenton
Nelfi Zapata

A --- Savannah Sand Gnats
Marcos Camarena
Hunter Carnevale
Luis Cessa
Albert Cordero
Jeff Glenn
Brian Harrison
Steven Matz
Estarlin Morel
Eudy Pina
Dimas Ponce

A- --- Brooklyn Cyclones
Dario Alvarez
Cristian Chivilli
Miller Diaz
Darwin Frias
John Mincone
Eris Peguero
AJ Pinera
Alex Sanchez
Ismael Tijerina
Juan Urbina
Carlos Valdez

R --- Kingsport Mets
Martires Arias
Zach Dotson
Josh Dunn
Carlos Gomez
Flabio Ortega
Luis Rengel
Edioglis Villasmil

R --- GCL Mets
Ramon Estevez
Alex Machillanda

Other
Michael Johnson
Jhonathan Torres
Ernesto Yanez

Added to 40-man roster, no longer eligible for the Rule 5 draft
Josh Satin (on 6/11)
Matt den Dekker (on 8/27)

Hobie said...

Thanks Mack.

Pretending to be, say, the Marlins, BJ's or Astros, the only one(s) I might consider burning a 25-man spot for is Matz (maybe Walters or even Gorski)--none of the position players, though someone might take a flyer on Dykstra. So I think we should protect Matz (& maybe Walters if he is in BP plan for 2014). Yet they protected Robles a year ago for some reason, so maybe Cessa?

Stephen said...

Oh they'll protect Matz. No doubt.

They protected Robles after a good season at BROOKLYN. They'll protect Matz. He projects to two years out. Some team would grab him and throw him in the bullpen as a LOOGY and let him develop. I'd be shocked if they don't add Matz.

Mack Ade said...

I don't want to lose Matz, Cessa, or Diaz

Charlie said...

I would definitely think about trading for Tulo and then signing Napoli for 1st. in this scenario outfield defence can be upped while most of the power comes from the infield.

Gary Seagren said...

Love the Tulo trade scenario because I REALLY think it's time we gave David a solid power bat behind him and another superstar player the likes of which we haven't seen since Beltran left (sorry Jose but my $100 million has to go for a power bat). This is a winter where a "perfect storm" is setting up where we seem almost ready to start reclaiming the city back from the evil empire as their in the worst shape they've been in in almost 20 years. The old line about "strike while the iron is hot" certainly applies to us this winter and I really hope Sandy's up to the task. Mack we spoke y/day about the draft pick scenario if we sign a second tier free agent and how many picks we lose and which ones. Any further updates?

Charley said...

They must protect the arms. Matz, Walters, and Diaz should all be protected and most likel will be. The hitters? I wouldn't worry too much about them.

I think Dykstra is a minor league free agent isn't he? He was eligable lat year for the rule 5 draft and wasn't taken, so when does a player get to latch himself to a different franchise? If I wa him, if be out! The Mets have two big zeroes now at first and Dykstra seems to be an after thought, despite having the exact approach to hitting that this FO drools over. I could see him in the majors next season and easily getting on base 25-35% more then Davis while certainly hitting for a higher average.

If they fail to acquire a better first baseman, I personally want them to put Murphy at first and stick Flores at second. Or vice versa. I think you could erase another position that you're looking to upgrade and both are capable of hitting 280, 15hr, 80 RBI. You fill the lineup with guys like that, all you need is a good pitching staff, which they have.

Herb G said...

Re: Rule 5 - Matz is a no brainer. But Walters, Gorski, Hutchingson and Kolarek are all potential MLB ready bull pen arms. After free agents and non tenders leave the 40 man, and hangers on are removed, there should be plenty of room to protect the guys we want to be sure of keeping.

Re: What outfield? I've been saying for a long time that, despite his speed EYJ shouldn't be playing out there for us. If Lagares is our CF of the future (or even a Lagares/den Dekker platoon) we need to flank him with a couple of offensive threats. I agree with Mack that Choo is looking less and less likely, given the Mets stated objective to follow the Red Sox plan and bring in mid range quality on short term deals. Cruz and Byrd would be very logical, with Beltran a very long shot.

We need to address shortstop too, and Tulo would be sweet, but not very likely. A trade for Andrus, Aybar or Hardy is more probable, giving us more speed at the top of the lineup to go with Young, who I think will be in the lineup somewhere come April. My hope is that they move him to 2B. If Davis gets traded, I wouldn't hate it if they moved Murphy to 1B. If Davis stays (which is my preferred scenario) Murphy should be in one of the trades SA works.