Holy crap there is a ton of arm injuries going around. Last
year the every fifth day celebration known
as “Harvey Day” came to a screeching
halt when it was discovered that the Mets phenom needed Tommy John surgery.
Now, Bobby Parnell, who had just recovered from neck surgery, is found to have
a torn MCL in his pitching elbow and will miss the season undergoing TJS. What in the hell is going on? Why are pitchers
falling to the wayside clutching their arms and shoulders in pain?
During the Mets opening day broadcast on WOR-AM Josh Lewin
dropped a few telling stats. The one that resonated was that one in three MLB
pitchers will have to or have undergone Tommy John surgery during their careers
and perhaps even more alarmingly, some now need a second Tommy John surgery.
This is blowing my mind.
This has quickly become the norm. It wasn't always this way. I keep thinking of Tom Seaver. Tom Terrific
is not a fan of pitch counts and innings limits. He’s been very outspoken on
this stance. He believes that babying a prospects
arm serves no useful purpose. As a matter of fact he quite clearly believes it’s
counter-productive to a pitchers development. I’m sorry when Tom Seaver talks,
I tend to listen. So I did a thumbnail sketch of the obvious differences in
starting pitching since 1965 or so.
Now, Seaver came out of a class of pitchers in the Mets
organization that was quite legendary. Think of this, the rubber arms that come
to mind are Seaver, Nolan Ryan, Jerry Koosman and Tug McGraw all of whom had
very long successful careers and all successfully avoided major arm injury
and/or surgery. The one common thread
they all had is they were all nurtured and developed by Rube Walker (and others
in the Mets farm system.) None adhered to a pitch count. None had their innings
counted. They went out and pitched until they were spent. Seaver believes that stretching an arm doesn’t
weaken it or risk injury; it strengthens the arm and improves overall
endurance. Honestly, you don’t have to
research this very deeply to find a certain merit in that theory. So I delved further.
Seaver pitched for twenty seasons. He pitched in 656 games,
threw 4783 innings and struck out 3640 batters.
Over the course of those twenty seasons he averaged 250 IP a season and
had 231 complete games (an average of 12 a year.) Those are averages. Numbers
that would give most GM’s and pitching coaches a stroke based on today’s standards. In 1970 Seaver
amassed 290.2 Innings pitched (He hit 290 again in 1973.) No arm surgery.
Let’s try Ryan. Ryan
pitched 27 years…that’s right 27. That
spanned 807 games, 5386 innings, 5714 strikeouts and 222 complete games. His season averages were 232 innings pitched
and 10 complete games per season. In
1974 at the age of 27, Ryan pitched a high of 332 innings pitched. No arm surgery.
Here’s the thing, Seaver and Ryan are both in the hall of
fame but those numbers are on par with other notables of the era. Here are some
more average stats to feast on.
Bob Gibson : 262 IP, 17 CG
(high of 314 IP in 1969 at the
age of 33)
Ferguson Jenkins: 243 IP 14 CG (high of 328.1 in 1974 at the
age of 31)
Juan Marichal: 257 IP, 18 CG (high of 325.2 in 1968 at the
age of 30)
Mickey Lolich: 229IP, 12 CG (high of 376 in 1971 at the age
of 30 and was followed by seasons with more than 300 IP through 1974)
That’s just a sample. If you go back before 1960 the numbers
just get more and more inflated. It’s
obvious that the change in modern pitching philosophy has made a huge
difference in how pitchers pitch and their bodies and arms react. Something is different. Something has changed
and obviously not for the better.
Now, all the pitchers mentioned above are easily the top of
the crop. All with the exception of Lolich are in the Hall of Fame. They are
the rare few. No argument there. There were others of the era that fell to arm
woes. Gary Nolan, Dean Chance, Jim Lonborg and Steve Busby all come to mind. It
was also obvious that Catfish Hunter reached a breaking point in the 1977
season and wasn’t the same as well. Pitchers are human, but injury just seems so
much more prevalent today. The high water mark in innings pitched over the past ten
years belongs to Livan Hernandez who tossed 255 in 2004, nothing to sneeze at.
Apparently innings pitched may not be the indicator. But complete games and
games started have changed more drastically.
Seaver points to the benefits on leg strength, pitching
every 4th day (3 days rest) and going as deep as one can in a game. In
an article with NBC sports in August of 2013 he notes a game from July 2nd
1963 when Juan Marichal and Warren Spahn both pitched 16 innings and combined
tossed more than 500 pitches. “Neither
of them had any adverse reactions from it”.
Still, those are pure fantasy/video game numbers today.
In 1982 Steve Carlton led the NL with 38 games started.
Meanwhile Jim Clancy led the AL with 40.
In 2013 4 pitchers topped the list with 34 games started. Not a huge difference…actually.
I get what Seaver is saying. I think he has a point. But
while pitch counts and starting every 5th day are relatively new to
baseball, I believe the blame lies either elsewhere or in tandem with other
factors.
Here are your contemporary comparisons:
C.C. Sabathia: 227IP
2 CG (high of 241 in 2007 at the age of 26)
Justin Verlander: 226
IP 3 CG (high of 251 in 2011 at the age
of 28)
Clayton Kershaw:219 IP
2 CG (high of 236 in 2013 at the age of 25)
Aside from pitch counts and complete games, which are the
same issue, I feel the answer as to why more injuries are occurring is
multi-layered and more complicated.
The biggest difference from the 60’s to today are how the
bullpens are used. Today it’s very common for closers to work almost every day,
that didn’t become standard practice till the mid to late 70’s. The modern closer, with a few exceptions, has
a much shorter shelf life. The medical
wards are cluttered with fireballers who used to hit near 100 mph on the gun who after 3 to 5
years of making 50 to 60 appearances find themselves not quite the same or out of the game. I cite
Francisco Rodriguez, Eric Gagne, Joba Chamberlain, Joakim Soria, Joel Zumaya,
B.J. Ryan, David Aardsma, Brandon Lyon, Bobby Jenks as a few. (Soria has had 2 TJ surgeries.) Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman come to mind
as rare exceptions, but to be fair, Hoffman was not the same pitcher towards the
end of his career. Billy Wagner came back from surgery and was pretty much back
to normal…and then retired. Joe Nathan
and Brian Wilson both look to have made it back to form after serious injuries.
Some of the blame for the arm problems
seems to be centered on bullpen management for sure. Sending a closer out 3 or
4 days in a row to throw 20 to 25 pitches as hard as they can seems to take a
major toll.
The other culprit might be the use of weights. Before not too long ago, pitchers lifting
weights was considered a big taboo. But since the late 80’s it’s not uncommon
for pitchers to be regularly lifting to gain strength. While, obviously this is unproven, it is a
change of philosophy since the 60’s that has coincided with the increase in
injury. Pitching a baseball is already
an “unnatural” motion, to add
muscle mass and increase torque in the process
could be adding to the problem considerably.
This is not an easy problem to solve or pinpoint. Injury is definitely
increasing. Pushing a body to do a repetitive motion at 100% intensity three to
five times a week, or muscling up and putting more torque and stress on the delicate
workings of a rotator cuff or elbow ligaments and tendons can also be
contributors. Additionally, the dramatic
increase in the use of the split fingered fast ball since the mid-eighties (Thank
you Mike Scott) are all candidates for the surge in arm and shoulder injury in
the modern pitcher.
My conclusion, I believe what Tom Seaver says has merit. I believe that if you extend starting
pitchers endurance it will build him up and at the same time take some stress
off the bullpen. An increase in complete games would add shelf live to the
bullpen arms and lessen the need for a closer. Or at the very least will cut
bullpen innings needed per game down and lessen the occurrences of needing a closer
every game. The fact that Tommy John surgery is so successful is a blessing. A
true medical marvel. Last year Adam Wainwright
three years removed from his surgery lead the NL in IP’s with 241.2. But no
matter how successful it is. It’s never a 100 % guarantee. Steps to avoid its occurrence
should be investigated and taken. Before having two Tommy John surgeries become
the norm.
7 comments:
I think you might be on something with the Mike Scott theory.
'Back in the day' there were three pitches... fast ball curve, and change-up.
Today, we have so many other variations of this, with the split finger possibly being the biggest culprit.
4 man rotations and 250 innings were the norm for the same human species that is playing the game today, thus, whatever is being done wrong, is being done wrong NOW.
Think of Cy Young and Walter Johnson:
Those guys combined for 13,300 innings and 1,513 decisions.
Walter Johnson, the Big Train, struck out just 3,509 in 5,914 innings. Cy Young just 2,803 in 7,356 innings. An embarrassing ratio today. Sure, guys shortened up more back then and thus would strike out less, but guys who can strike out guys today might be far better off quickly making quality pitches guys could put in play. Gaylord Perry once tossed a perfect game on just 72 pitches. Also, I do not know these guys' histories, but both, particularly Johnson, ended their careers with several mediocre years. They may have been pitching with a partially torn TJ tendon and it never snapped.
Before the days of MRI, it is quite possible Parnell keeps pitching with soreness in his elbow, not knowing what it is, for years without a catasrophic career-ending injury. Today, would you pitch if you were Parnell and risk a major tear that messes up your elbow, or take a well-paid year to have the surgery, recuperate, come back successfully, and get a mega-contract? The game has changed.
Marichal pitched 15 years - from 1972 to 1975, ages 34-38, he was 22-33. what was wrong with his arm then that he kept pitching with?
So all your points may be good, but those points also factor in. Also, as ridiculous as it seems, maybe pitching in the daytime all the time, as Cy and Walter did, is more natural to the human physique than pitching at 10 PM, and hence late pitching is more stressful on the body. And lastly, more guys throw harder, and while Ryan was a freak of nature, so many gus are throwing mid-to-high 90s today, and maybe the norm was low-to-mid 90's for the hard throwers of yesteryear, and those extra 3 to 4 MPH cause the exponential increase in TJ surgeries.
You can also never discount social media, fame and the almighty dollar......
Players were not all taking steroids, HGH, lifting weights and fighting to throw as hard as possible, solely to benefit their team. ..........
Im having a memory of Harvey. Amongst the media talking $200 mil, there was that game against Nationals. It was Harvey/strassberg...........first inning, harvey was touching 99 mph on the gun.......too hyped up...
I hate this crap. It's the baseball fan's equivalent of "Hey you kids, get off my lawn!" It's crap. It's BS. "Back in the day", there were fewer major league pitching slots. This meant you tended to serve a longer apprenticeship in the minors. There were no pitch counts in the minors either. So what happened was thousands of kids who were every bit the pitcher Tom Seaver was had their arms fall off before they ever reached the majors. And, because there was no such thing as Tommy John surgery and because the club had no big investment in them, they simply disappeared from the game because, you know, who really gave a crap? And because the media was what it was, then, you never heard about them. And if you never heard about them, they must not have existed, right? Those whose arms didn't fall off until after they reached the majors, it was pretty much the same syndrome. They'd blaze across the sky briefly and then fall. They'd try to pitch through it because, if they couldn't, their career was over. Some would have a few innings or a year before the injury struck and you'd forget them quickly. Some had a few good years and you'd say, its a shame what happened to so-and-so, not realizing what was truly wrong with them. "One day, they just lost it" was about all the thought you'd give it. Some would make their way to the bullpen and gut it out for a long time and you'd say something stupid like "He used to rely entirely on his fastball, but now he's learning how to pitch." So, because we were ignorant back then, your memory tells you that there were nothing but Seavers and Koosmans and Gibsons. And that's just not the case. There were just as many pitchers falling to injury then; you just don't remember them. Anybody remember John Glass? John Glass was a Mets prospect of the era who was, in pretty much everyone's opinion, a BETTER prospect and pitcher than Nolan Ryan. But his arm fell off before he reached the majors.
Read Dirk Hayhurst's take on this. He, at least, pitched in the big leagues. (http://dirkhayhurst.com/2013/08/old-man-yells-at-cloud-tom-seaver-survivorship-bias/). He says, and I agree, the Seavers and Gibsons and Ryans, et. al., were genetic freaks. That's why they paid less of a physical price for those innings. The human body was not designed to throw a baseball overhand at 90 mph. Any doctor can tell you that. And every pitcher sustains at least some damage for doing so. "Back in the day", you could probably fill out the better part of the staffs of 16 teams with genetic freaks. A little less so at 20. Very much less so with 30 teams. In short, what has changed from the old days to the present is not the number of pitchers succumbing to arm injuries. What has changed is that we now know, medically, what those injuries are and what we can do about it. We spot those injuries early. And, because there is now such a huge monetary investment in those players, it pays for the club to get them fixed, rather than let them try to pitch through it and toss them away when they can't go no more. And with the media being what it is today, you hear about every single one of them. But its just ignorant to say there are more arm injuries now than there were then and then cite a few anecdotal players as though that were proof of anything. Its no different than a smoker saying they have "a smoker's cough". There's no such thing. Maybe we didn't know it "back in the day", but that "smoker's cough" is emphysema and only those in complete denial would say otherwise.
I think man has been able to come up with consistent ways of throwing a baseball over 95 miles per hour.
At the same time, I don't think the human body has changed enough to survive this kind of torque on the system on a consistent basis.
Thomas may be right. The low-to-mid 90s range might be the most the human body should have been pushed to.
As far as Walter Johnson and Cy Young, its also worth remembering that the mound was ten inches higher then. And, in Cy Young's early years, the distance from pitcher to plate was only 55 feet (though there's no sign from the stats that moving it back 5 feet hurt him any).
But I still think, if you could do a thorough review of every player to pitch in professional baseball "then" and now, did further research to determine the real reasons many "then" disappeared from the game, I suspect you'd find the incidence of arm trouble to be percentage neutral. If 60% of today's pitchers undergo Tommy John surgery today, I'd wager that 60% of yesterday's pitchers suffered the same injury. If its 75% then, then its 75% now. The difference is that, now, medical science knows what it is and, now that we know how, its worth it to all concerned to treat it. Back then, nobody knew and very few cared. I honestly think its as simple as that: nothing has changed except medical knowledge and the monetary incentive for treatment.
Going back to my earlier (admittedly poor) analogy. My father and mother had COPD. My grandfather didn't. Why didn't my grandfather have COPD when all three smoked? Because it hadn't been "invented" yet. He had a "smoker's cough". Which means he did have COPD, but there was no such diagnosis back in the day. So I could go all nutso trying to figure out why so many more people have COPD today than did then (hmm, I wonder if its all the chemicals they use in tobacco nowadays) or realize that, duh, nothing has changed except that medical science has advanced to recognize these illnesses, recognize them early, and treat them to some extent. It doesn't matter what smoke you put in your lungs, its not a good thing for the human body. It doesn't matter whether you throw a fastball at 88 or 100 mph, its not a good thing for the human body.
Stubby -
Nice thoughts, but it does matter if you throw baseballs either at 88mph or 100mph.
Talk to any professional trainer.
Post a Comment