ANGRY MIKE
With so much buzz focused on the Mets next wave of hitting prospects, let’s take a look at how the next wave’s MiLB statistics stack up with the previous group of top hitting prospects that are currently on the MLB roster. There are some striking similarities between the current “Baby Mets” and the current top-ranked prospects.
Francisco Alvarez, Jett Williams, and Carson Benge stand out for putting up elite production in their professional debuts. Williams and Alvarez both produced elite numbers despite quickly entering the upper levels of the minor leagues by their 21st birthdays.
Jacob Reimer, Ronny Mauricio, and A.J. Ewing standout for starting their professional careers off with respectable numbers, and then quickly elevating their prospect profile by producing elite numbers despite reaching AA by their 21st Birthdays.
We’ve provided plenty of analysis on all of these players, here is a quick breakdown of how they’ve each performed in the minors leagues for you to draw your conclusions on who the Mets should be most excited about currently in the MLB roster and who might be next to make their MLB debuts in Queens.
F. ALVAREZ -> Full-Season MILB STATS:
Year 1 -> Low-A -> 17 years old -> 21% K-Rate | 178 PA
| .312 BA | .407 OBP | .917 OPS | 7 HR | 10 2B | 0 3B | 1 SB | 26 RBI |
| 32 Runs | 21 BB |
Year 2 -> LOW-A | HIGH-A -> 19 years old -> 23% K-Rate | 382 PA
| .272 BA | .388 OBP | .942 OPS | 24 HR | 18 2B | 1 3B | 8 SB | 70 RBI |
| 67 Runs | 26 BB |
Year 3 -> AA | AAA -> 20 years old -> 24% K-Rate | 481 PA
| .260 BA | .374 OBP | .885 OPS | 27 HR | 22 2B | 0 3B | 0 SB | 78 RBI |
| 74 Runs BB | 70 BB |
J. WILLIAMS -> Full-Season MILB STATS:
Year 1 -> Low-A | HI-A -> 19 years old -> 23% K-Rate | 514 PA
| .263 BA | .425 OBP | .876 OPS | 13 HR | 22 2B | 8 3B | 45 SB | 55 RBI |
| 81 Runs | 104 BB |
Year 2 -> AA | AAA -> 21 years old -> 23% K-Rate | 562 PA
| .261 BA | .363 OBP | .828 OPS | 17 HR | 34 2B | 7 3B | 34 SB | 52 RBI |
| 91 Runs | 76 BB |
C. BENGE -> Full-Season MILB STATS:
Year 1 -> HI-A | AA -> 22 years old -> 18% K-Rate | 509 PA
| .281 BA | .385 OBP | .857 OPS | 15 HR | 25 2B | 7 3B | 22 SB | 49 RBI |
| 87 Runs | 68 BB |
R. MAURICIO -> Full-Season MILB STATS:
Year 1 -> Low-A -> 18 years old -> 21% K-Rate | 493 PA
| .268 BA | .307 OBP | .664 OPS | 4 HR | 20 2B | 5 3B | 6 SB | 37 RBI |
| 62 Runs | 23 BB |
Year 2 -> HIGH-A -> 20 years old -> 25% K-Rate | 449 PA
| .248 BA | .296 OBP | .745 OPS | 20 HR | 15 2B | 5 3B | 11 SB | 64 RBI |
| 58 Runs | 26 BB |
Year 3 -> AA -> 21 years old -> 24% K-Rate | 533 PA
| .259 BA | .296 OBP | .768 OPS | 26 HR | 26 2B | 2 3B | 20 SB | 89 RBI |
| 71 Runs | 24 BB |
Year 4 -> AAA -> 22 years old -> 19% K-Rate | 525 PA
| .292 BA | .346 OBP | .852 OPS | 23 HR | 30 2B | 3 3B | 24 SB | 71 RBI |
| 76 Runs | 35 BB |
J. REIMER -> Full-Season MILB STATS:
Year 1 -> Low-A | HI-A -> 19 years old -> 21% K-Rate | 398 PA
| .265 BA | .399 OBP | .774 OPS | 8 HR | 13 2B | 0 3B | 3 SB | 49 RBI |
| 63 Runs | 62 BB |
Year 2 -> HI-A | AA -> 21 years old -> 22% K-Rate | 502 PA
| .282 BA | .379 OBP | .870 OPS | 17 HR | 32 2B | 5 3B | 15 SB | 77 RBI |
| 91 Runs | 58 BB |
A.J. EWING -> Full-Season MILB STATS:
Year 1 -> Low-A | HI-A -> 20 years old -> 29% K-Rate | 376 PA
| .233 BA | .361 OBP | .751 OPS | 10 HR | 13 2B | 3 3B | 13 SB | 49 RBI |
| 59 Runs | 63 BB |
Year 2 -> Low-A | HI-A | AA -> 21 years old -> 19% K-Rate | 553 PA
| .261 BA | .363 OBP | .828 OPS | 17 HR | 34 2B | 7 3B | 34 SB | 52 RBI |
| 91 Runs | 76 BB |
M. VIENTOS -> Full-Season MILB STATS:
Year 1 -> Low-A -> 17 years old -> 22% K-Rate | 206 PA
| .262 BA | .318 OBP | .716 OPS | 4 HR | 14 2B | 26 RBI | 23 Runs |
| 15 BB |
Year 2 -> LOW-A -> 18 years old -> 17% K-Rate | 260 PA
| .287 BA | .389 OBP | .878 OPS | 11 HR | 12 2B | 52 RBI | 32 Runs |
| 37 BB |
Year 3 -> AA | AAA -> 20 years old -> 29% K-Rate | 343 PA
| .281 BA | .346 OBP | .933 OPS | 25 HR | 18 2B | 63 RBI | 52 Runs |
| 33 BB |
Year 4 -> AAA -> 21 years old -> 29% K-Rate | 422 PA
| .280 BA | .358 OBP | .877 OPS | 24 HR | 16 2B | 1 3B | 72 RBI |
| 66 Runs | 44 BB |
B. BATY -> Full-Season MILB STATS:
Year 1 -> Low-A -> 19 years old -> 29% K-Rate | 223 PA
| .234 BA | .368 OBP | .820 OPS | 7 HR | 16 2B | 2 3B | 33 RBI |
| 37 Runs | 35 BB |
Year 2 -> HIGH-A | AA -> 20 years old -> 26% K-Rate | 378 PA
| .292 BA | .382 OBP | .855 OPS | 12 HR | 22 2B | 1 3B | 6 SB | 56 RBI |
| 43 Runs | 46 BB |
Year 3 -> AA -> 21 years old -> 24% K-Rate | 533 PA
| .259 BA | .296 OBP | .768 OPS | 26 HR | 26 2B | 2 3B | 20 SB | 89 RBI |
| 71 Runs | 24 BB |
Year 4 -> AA | AAA -> 22 years old -> 25% K-Rate | 411 PA
| .315 BA | .410 OBP | .943 OPS | 19 HR | 22 2B | 0 3B | 2 SB | 60 RBI |
| 76 Runs | 49 BB |
The Mets plan is simple, build a roster around Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto. The hard part will be deciding which of these young, talented players they believe offer the most upside and have the highest chance of reaching their true potential. It’s a great problem to have, that can quickly turn into a nightmare the wrong decisions are made and the players who are traded away perform better than the ones who remained with the team.
Hopefully they all become studs, so everybody wins…
10 comments:
@Angry Mike -- Thank you for posting. I am not sure what to make of the data.
Before delving deeper, it sure looks like Mauricio is the most promising of the group. It makes one think he hasn't recovered fully from his injury of two years ago. Even so, I'd be having hit only left handed (given what I saw last year from the right side) and giving him as many reps at 1st base as possible. Tall, athletic, good arm, but questionable BB IQ, why wouldn't we see what he is capable of at 1st base. Vientos' K numbers are alarming and it has only gotten worse in the majors as his pitch recognition shortcomings and at bat approach have been exploited.
Ewing made a massive improvement in K rate and contact in two years. Not just a singles hitter but not a lot of power.
Baty has been steady over the longer term, but we know he can into protracted slumps, so his yearlong graph might be very lumpy. I look at his at bats from the perspective of a pitcher and he can be beat with heat and off speed down and in. His swing is fluid but lengthy.
Alvarez's numbers confirm my concerns that most of the damage he caused was in spite of his flawed mechanics against competition he overwhelmed. He has so much raw power, but his sequencing is a real problem. seriously.
Jett is looks genuinely solid but not exceptional. Has the K rate of a power hitter, but isn't a + power hitter. His number one asset is speed and, I believe, quality defense at a number of positions.
Benge showed excellent plate discipline in first year and good power. I am told his defense is better at a corner position than CF. If the picture of him that is included is accurate, I would say that his body definitely has room to fill out and that this may well translate into even better power numbers.
Two things from the #s alone: if one had to guess, just looking at the numbers, which player has the makings of an all-star it would clearly be Mauricio. But will he be able to reach anything close to that potential post injury and switch-hitting?
Second, a number of the players seem to have gotten two years older over the course of only one season. I guess that's why we call them the Miracle Mets?
To me...
The Baby Mets have underperformed
The New Wave haven't done squat yet
I have tried to compare the first group to the next group but without numbers. Leaving out Alvarez ans Benge, who don’t have competition, let’s look at the infielders:
Baty is better than Williams
Vientos is better than Clifford
Reimer is better than Mauricio
Ewing = Acuna
So, in order of prospectiveness:
Baty
Williams
Vientos
Reimer
Ewing/Acuna
Clifford
Mauricio
Hope springs eternal.
Gus, to me, Ewing > Acuna, by a wide margin.
Don’t forget, Acuna was amazing in AA for the Rangers.
I wish I could be confident about projections position players performance, but I don't know what the basis of such confidence would be. There is a discontinuity between AAA and major league caliber of play that is recognized by the introduction into the baseball lexicon of the phrase 'AAAA' player.
Here are four potential sets of players at the three main positions currently open on the Mets.
I'd like to know what others think. You can construct your own comparison sets by mixing up players I mention below into different sets, or adding your own. I put this list together constrained by reasonableness with regard either to money in FA and/or loss of players through trades)
Set I. IB: Not strict platoon. Polanco as lefty bat/Goldschmidt as righty; LF stricter platoon: Hays as righty bat/ Benge as lefty bat until he can show ability to handle difficult lefties. CF: Robert Jr/ Taylor 5th outfielder.
Set II. Same as I except for 1B: Polanco as righty bat/Mauricio as lefty bat.
Set III: LF: Benge. CF: Taylor/Ewing or Williams: IB: Polanco/Goldschmidt. (In this scenario I picture Ewing or Williams also doubling as ultility infielder.
Set IV: LF: Bellinger. CF Robert Jr. 1B: Polanco/Goldschmidt
Set V: LF: Benge: CF: Bellinger: IB: Goldschmidt/Mauricio
Polance is full time DH except when someone any where on infield needs a day off.
I can tell a plausible story for any of these potential sets. I feature Goldschmidt in a number of these because he is right hand power bat (less so than before of course) and he is also an excellent glove at 1B who can help both Mauricio and Polanco improve their play at the position. Not trivial bonus.
Notice also that neither Vientos nor Acuna figure in any of these, though if Polanco ends up with full time duty at 1B, I would think that Acuna would make for a very good utility infielder in the event that neither Williams nor Ewing is brought up to be a back up outfielder.
I would also be prepared to argue that not only do all of these make some considerable sense for the major league team, but the fact that there are this many (and more) plausible ways of addressing the 3 positions explains why it makes no sense for the Mets to pursue Okamoto in free agency.
I like most the set IV because it has the least number of question marks in terms of expected performance on the defensive side. With the exception of Bellinger, you are looking at 2 year contracts for Polanco and Robert and 1 year for Goldschmidt and you are choosing to risk declining performance over growing pains.
I also like Hays/Benge in left as a second best alternative to that again with Robert Jr in CF and Goldschmidt splitting time at first with Polanco.
Interested in seeing what others think. I think 3 rookies invites too many question marks.
But my main point is that we can do quite well without closing pathways to the majors and without undue spending or taking on contracts with long tails, with the possible exception of Bellinger, who earns his tail by the insurance he provides.
I am sure that Stearns and co have even more ideas of how to accomplish this much or more.
I have thoughts about doing the same on the pitching side that I will share in another comment.
There are no Baby Mets pitchers on the roster so no comparisons are called for. The closest to one is Christian Scott but he's more part of the next wave than the last. It is telling that the only SP from the farm to make it to the majors since deGrom are Peterson and McGill, though I may be missing someone.
It is also interesting/telling that while Stearns has declared run prevention the number 1 priority that he has not yet attacked starting pitching, which was an extraordinary culprit re: run production for opponents last season. He has addressed the bullpen somewhat but there are several reasons that would explain his doing what he has done to this point on that front. 1. He has lost Diaz so he needed a replacement. 2. He lost all of his late season relief acquisitions; 3. Most of the relief staff is always under short term contract in a Stearns regime, so he has to be relatively busy every year filling relief spots. 4. You need around 13/14 potentially available relief pitchers every year and some of these will be parked in the minors for call up duty.
The bulk of pitchers Stearns has signed fall into that last category, which makes sense for two reasons. 1. You want to get the best of those who will be stashed in the minors -- those who have major league experience and those with professional experience in other countries, and that group disappears pretty quickly. 2. Our current crop of starters is not filled with pitchers capable of going deep into games -- often, if ever.
I think Stearns has been in the investigation and preliminary conversation stages of decision making. He was never going to go for Cease, not just because of the years/money; I don't think Cease is the kind of pitcher Stearns wants (as illustrated by his choice for pitching coach).
There wasn't a pitcher on last years team until McLean arrived who pounded the zone with his stuff. There were more nibblers on the staff than there are picky eaters in my extended family.
No one on the staff in the first half of the year had a devastating out pitch other than Senga, and Peterson's strength was the number of ground balls he could induce; same with Holmes. Only Canning could produce a lot of soft-contact.
In any case, we have two returning starters who we would want on our ideal staff, only one of which we would definitely want as a starter: The two are McLean and Holmes, though many would be more comfortable with Holmes returning to the pen. I'm going to pencil Holmes in to the starting rotation which means that one of our most reliable starters absolutely should not be counted on for more than 51/3 innings/game on average.
Aside from McLean, our next best pitcher is Senga and when all is right with him, he can be counted on for a high percentage of quality starts, but he needs an extra day of rest, so he will always produce a suboptimal number of starts. So we are short on innings and starts.
Our next two starters are the lefties, Manaea and Peterson. Peterson can give innings/game but only through 3/5 of the season at best.
Manaea is wounded and needs to get healthy to employ the delivery he employed in the second half of 2024 that earned him 75million dollars. Otherwise he may well be more trouble than he is worth.
If he hasn't recovered his health or his motion he will be a contract waiting to be eaten.
Most of the quality starting pitching that is available in free agency is mid tier (e.g. Zac Gallen) and much of it is too costly for what you are getting (i.e. not good value). The top tier is (Valdez and Suarez) is even less good value. The unknown is Imai who has too many question marks at his projected cost in terms of years and dollars.
There are several bottom of the top tier pitchers whose names have been floated but they are what I call 'good but not delicious' and that includes Pivetta, Peralta and Ryan (who is apparently not on the market anyway). Pivetta and Peralta would be under Mets control for one year guaranteed only, but that doesn't prevent their current teams from demanding a princely haul if not a king's ransom.
So what makes sense?
There are so many good young pitchers knocking at the door, the temptation is to do nothing? That just isn't viable, however.
I want to suggest the following strategy instead.
Priority number is to solve the innings problem. To me that means signing Chris Bassett who can pitch in NY (indeed anywhere) and is a mid tier pitcher who you can get for 2 years at a reasonable rate.
I think the Mets want to make a bid for Skubal when he hits free agency next year. Boras is his agent and Boras will not let him miss the opportunity to do so. That works to the Mets advantage because the price will be in dollars and years and not in players. And I think the Mets want to sort through their pitching prospects and having the next year to do so is a tremendous benefit; and a competition based on money and years is one in which they can do as well as anyone and better than most.
So I think the rational strategy is more minimalist for this year. The Mets then have to make a decision about Senga, Manaea and Peterson all of whom are under contract. Either Manaea is healthy enough to pitch from the desirable release point or not. This involves two things. His health and if that is ok, his ability to pitch from his release point without the stress that resulted in the original injury. The first is something we will know before ST; the second is not. We have to see. If the answer to the first question is no, the Mets will need to buy him out and make him a free agent and someone else's opportunity.
That means Peterson stays unless they trade for a lefty. Gore is too pricey, especially relative to his performance so far. Bubic is mid tier. I don't see the value of a trade for either really.
Senga is a high upside risk, so he stays on my team for next year.
Do I trade for Pivetta or Peralta? I think the price will be too high for the one year of control; and if you sign them after that year, it cuts into your money available for the Skubal bid.
So here's my thought. I would see if I can get Gallen for 2 years with a 3rd year option and buyout.
Then I would add Sproat after the first month of the season as games become more frequent; and I would have Christian Scott as my bullpen long man.
So, in total, the SPs available would be:
McLean
Senga
Bassett
Gallen
Peterson
Sproat
Scott as long relief spot starter
Evaluate and adjust going forward and see where you are at trade deadline.
Very modest investment overall. It's not a great staff, but it is a solid major league staff that doesn't get in the way of doing anything going forward either in free agency next year or re: minor leaguers knocking on the door.
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