Morning Report – 4-25-14 – Cam-Chat, Starting Pitching

2030 Flushing

Coming Up –

        10 am –   Baseball In The Blood - Mock

12 noon –  Top 10 LHP In 2014 MLB Draft  - Updated 4-23-14

          2 pm –   Top 10 RHP in 2014 MLB Draft - Updated 4-23-14

           5pm -  Aaron Nola, Greyson Greiner, Bradley Zimmer, Nick Howard, Brandon Finnegan

          8pm –  RHP - Touki Toussaint - Coral Springs Christian (FL) HS

"Granderson's Slow Start & Milestones"  - Susana's You Tube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DJZnIUFAWg …




Cam-Chat –

Comment From TADontAsk - Is there anything we can look at in a pitcher’s statistical profile, other than batted ball data, to show why they might have a consistently low BABIP? Kershaw, for example, allowed the highest line drive rate of his career last year but had his lowest BABIP. Thanks!

Dave Cameron: Pitch location. Guys who pitch up in the zone will generate more infield flies, and thus a lower BABIP. They’ll usually give up more homers too, however; that’s the trade-off.

Comment From john - Curtis Granderson – another Alderson market misread/mistake. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: I didn’t like that deal when they signed it, and I don’t like it now.

Starting Pitching –

We’ve learned a few things over the years about following the path of starters through the Mets system (I assume it is the same on other teams):

-you need to post decent stats to get to the next level, though it doesn’t mean you have proven a damn thing yet

-and you’re not going to be taken serious until you command at the AA level.

We all know that this organization is and will be built around its starting rotation. At the same time, we’re getting sick and tired of our starters giving up three or less runs and the team still losing.

The pitchers don’t control this. All they can do is try harder and give up two or less runs.

Let’s talk 2015 and beyond.

There seems to be only one etched in stone pitcher come next spring and that is Matt Harvey (DL). Any combination of Zack Wheeler (4.63), Dillon Gee (3.58), Jon Niese (X.XX), Bartolo Colon (5.40), Jeremy Hefner (DL), Jenrry Mejia (1.99), Rafael Montero (3.80), Noah Syndergaard (4.95), and Jacob deGrom (1.57) will fill in the other four slots.

I think we can safely move Hefner to the pen as a probably long man, but that still leaves eight pitchers to fill four slots.

No one, not even Sandy Alderson, can figure out who the five will be at this point. What we know is you will probably need to keep six of these guys in your system because the odds are against you that at least one will go down with TJS.

The only concrete truths that can be said at this point is that the Mets have enough quality starters for both the 2015 and 2016 season… and probably far past that. The pitchers themselves will determine their future value. Three weeks ago  Mejia was a long shot. Today he looks like a lock. It can change on a dime.

Dana Everland (5.28) is your AAAA fill-in in Las Vegas, but Logan Verrett (4.87) is another of those very talented pitchers that is probably targets for the Mets pen someday.

In Binghamton, Matt Bowman (0.75) has been a pleasant surprise, while Tyler Pill (9.64) has been (at least, to me) a big disappointment. Pill was a great fourth round draft pick in 2011 that had a wonderful year in St. Lucie in 2012, but spent most of last year injured (7.58).

Darin Gorski (2.30), Rainy Lara (1.47), and Hansel Robles (1.23) have all showed the ability to dominate in the lower levels of the minors, but, like I said, it will take a season here for us all to start to see what they truly can produce. Greg Peavey (6.75) has also had two starts here in the early season, but it’s hard to determine what his future role will be in Binghamton.

Probably the safest pitcher in the entire Mets chain is LHSP Steven Matz (2.00). Not only is he the next left in line, but he is also dominating last year in Savannah and this season for St. Lucie. On the other hand, the biggest disappointment so far has been prospect Michael Fulmer (11.08), who just may not have totally recovered from his season ending injury last year. Still, as I said before, stay with the pedigree… Fulmer is a legitimate prospect that easily could recover sometime this season or next year. Domingo Tapia (1.93) is off to a good start, though he’s still as wild as ever. And Luis Cessa (4.24) and Matt Koch (4.86) are the rest of the rotation.

It’s always difficult trying to figure out who the starters are in Savannah because there always is so much piggy-backing going on at this level. So far, it’s obvious that John Gant (3.50) and Robert Gsellman (1.56) are true starters. The high ceiling draft picks are Robert Whalen (1.00) and Chris Flexen (5.06). And the surprise of the early season is Dario Alvarez (0.00). But, we’re nowhere near done here. They still have Ricky Knapp (X.XX), Kevin McGowan (5.27), and Miller Diaz (3.38).

Summation:

        The Mets have great starting pitcher and will have great starting pitching well through the 2020 season.

        The pitchers themselves will determine who plays where, and when, but none of this means anything if the team doesn’t support them with some bats.

        My guess?

        Oh, I don’t know, but I can tell you what I would like them to do (and you’ve heard all this before).

1.  I want Matt Harvey as my SP1

2.  I want Noah Syndergaard as my SP2

3.  I want to come back with my lefty, Jon Niese, as my SP3

4.  I go back to some electricity, Jenrry Mejia, for my SP4

5.  And I make Dillon Gee the best SP5 in baseball

6.  I deal off Zack Wheeler as quick as I can before everyone starts to realize he’s not that special

7.  I make Rafael Montero my 2015 closer

8.  I add Jake deGrom to the 2015 bullpen as one of my long-men and my emergency starter

9.  I add Jeremy Hefner as another long man in the pen

10.       I take anything I can get, plus will pay up to half of his salary, for Bartolo Colon

11.       And, I’m probably not done with the pen yet. I still need to find a home for Verrett.