Reese Kaplan -- Win Now With Stars Or Gamble on Future Studs?

Trading prospects is a roll of the dice where someone is banking on future development being an enhanced version of what’s already been shown while the team sending him packing is concerned about flaws in his game or that he’s already reached his peak performance before donning a big league uniform.

This issue arose recently elsewhere when someone on the Chicago Cubs media payroll wrote an article extolling the superstar virtues of one Pete Crow-Armstrong, former New York Mets first round draft pick, who was sent packing to the Windy City in exchange for a few nobodies named Javier Baez and Trevor Williams.  To hear many Mets fans tell the story, the team was absolutely robbed in this deal and their vitriol matches the high praise piled onto the center fielder.

Dig a little deeper, however, and realize you have to give to get.  Yes, Crow-Armstrong was indeed highly regarded and during his entire minor league stretch in the Mets and Cubs organizations he has been valuable.  In an aggregate of about two full seasons of play when you add up the various minor league stints he was good for 41 HRs, 161 RBIs and 81 SBs while hitting .296.  Yeah, those numbers are indeed hard to ignore.  Consequently when the Cubs were asking in that summer of 2022 trade, the Mets had a tough decision to make.

On the other side of the coin came the puzzling Javier Baez whose mouth is sometimes more prominent than his bat.  Still, you can’t ignore what he’s done in the major leagues.  He’s been a 2-time All Star, won a Gold Glove and finished 2nd in the MVP voting during one season.  He averages 24 HRs, 83 RBIs and 15 SBs per season while hitting .251.  You can see why giving up such a player would require the Cubs to get back someone who might put up similar numbers in the future.

Then there is the forgotten man of the deal, reliever/starter Trevor Williams.  While he’s been converted now to full time starter, for the Mets he served both roles and during the 2022 and 2023 seasons he combined to go 3-5 with a 3.17 ERA over 40 games that included a dozen starts. 

Since neither Baez nor Williams are here anymore, it must be true about Crow-Armstrong having been highway robbery, righht?  Well, if you look at the numbers it would appear he’s still a work in progress.  In 408 major league at-bats he has 10 HRs, 49 RBIs and a .221 average to go along with a highly respectable 30 SBs.  No one is questioning his glove, his arm nor his legs.  His bat, however, may still have some holes in it that need to be plugged.

The point here isn’t to bash Crow-Armstrong nor praise Billy Eppler for the trade that worked out better for the Mets than it did for the Cubs.  The issue is the value we place on prospects and whether or not we sometimes inflate in our own minds what a minor leaguer will become.  That issue is front and center for the New York Mets with the game in Miami with import Kodai Senga facing off against one Sandy Alcantara. 

For a quick refresher on the latter name, for his career (which, of course, included time off for Tommy John surgery, he has gone 41-55 for a bad Marlins team with a career ERA of just 3.32.  In today’s game that number puts you among the elite in starting pitchers.  The Marlins re-upped him to a long term deal which pays the man $17.3 million for the remainder of 2025, the same salary in 2026 and then there’s an option for $21 million for 2027 with a $2 million team buyout.  That means for less than you’re paying Sean Manaea and about what you’re paying Frankie Montas you could trade for someone who already has a Cy Young Award on his mantle.

Now comes the tough part.  Which players in the organization would be an attractive and equitable package to land the still just 29 year old Alcantara?  Obviously you would want to start off with players who don’t have a clear path to the big club in New York like Ronny Mauricio or middle infielder Luisangel Acuna.  Then there is pitching.  Jonah Tong moved up a lot of charts but not quite to the level of Brandon Sproat. 

The Marlins might want to look at the rest of the returns gained in the salary dump deals for Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.  The names not yet mentioned include Drew Gilbert, Jett Williams and Ryan Clifford. 

I can hear everyone right now and sense the apoplectic blood pressure some of these names would cause if the Mets included them in deals.  Do remember that they are what the Mets got for their two pitchers a few years back.  The Marlins won’t simply give Alcantara away, so some combination of perhaps Mauricio, Tong, Gilbert and Acuna might be enough while preserving Williams, Clifford and Sproat.  Or it might not.  

The question you have to ask is what you think Alcantara’s sure value would be to the Mets vs. the prospective future value of the next Pete Crow-Armstrong?