Tom Brennan - THE # 6 DRAFT PICK, IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

THE # 6 DRAFT PICK, IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

The Mets dodged a bullet on the last day of the season by losing, allowing them to secure the 6^th draft slot.  Had they won, and Atlanta and San Diego lost, they’d have slipped to 8^th.

While the Mets could pick a knucklehead at # 6 next June, what has the 6^th slot in the first round in baseball resulted in since 2012?  Some really good stuff.

Here goes, with their career #’s unless otherwise specified:

2012: Albert Almora, Jr., Cubs: .292/11 HR/60 RBI

2013: Colin Moran, 3B, 24 year old: 2017 in PCL: 79 G, .308/.373/.543 (4 for 11 with a HR in late season call up).  Someone on the Marlins was in front of him, making him a blocked Colin - but I digress...

2014: Alex Jackson, C: 21 year old, A and AA in 2017, .267/.328/.480

2015: Tyler Jay, P: missed most of 2017, but threw 11.2 IP, 19 K

2016: AJ Puk, P: the 22 year old fireballer is moving up fast, 157 IP, 224 Ks, 6-14, 3.82 in mostly AA

2017: Austin Beck - .211 in limited rookie ball at bats – he is 18.  Far too soon to tell here.

How about Round 5, which the Mets tried to snag this season, but their playing hot veterans in September while Cincy tanked completely, cause Cincy to nab the 5^th spot:

2012: Kyle Zimmer, P – fragile arm issues have limited him to 259 minor league innings. 5.79 in 33 AAA innings in 2017.

2013: Clint Frazier, OF: you know, that guy in the Yanks’ OF that we wish was in the Mets OF.

2014: Nick Gordon, SS: 21 years old, AA ball in 2017: .270/.341/.408

2015: Kyle Tucker, OF: 20 year old CF, mostly AA in 2017: 464 AB, 33 doubles, 5 triples, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 21 SB.  I'll take two.

2016: Corey Ray, 23, CF: Advanced A in 2017: .238/.311/.367

2017: Kyle Wright, P: just 17 IP, 18 K, 2.65 ERA

Who else did well in those draft years?  Well, it helps to be in the top 4.  You have names like Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Mike Zunino dripping with power.

Guys not picked by the 6^th slot who are already mighty good? 

Andrew Benitendi (picked 7^th in 2015);

Ian Happ (9^th that year);

Hunter Renfroe (13^th in 2013, already 30 career HRs in MLB);

SS Tim Anderson (17^th in 2013; already has hit .268 with 26 homers and 86 RBIs in the majors, with 25 steals);

#11 in 2012 Addison Russell - the fella selected ONE PICK BEFORE GAVIN "CHEECH AND CHONG" CECCHINI has hit a jealousy-provoking .240/46 HR/192 RBIs so far as a big leaguer with the Cubs; and

# 17 in 2012 Corey Seager (amazing at .305/52/166, but I'll keep the 5-kiddie-tool Cecchini instead, won't you?).  Hobie recently posted comments at the time of the draft about Cheech and the subsequently drafted Seager: what I read about Cheech was: Good defensively, hits line drives, could develop into a pretty good player.  About Seager, it talked about his power.  Hmmm, who would I have picked? 

Coulda, woulda, shoulda, the Mets picked Gooch (I mean Cheech) in 2012 and also went first round with big Dommy Smitty in 2013 (pictures of a svelte Smith when drafted out of high school, and the current far bulkier Smith, follow below); neither look like world-beaters so far: world-beaten might be more like it.

While Schwarber (4^th in 2014) is still potentially a very, very impressive career hitter, if Conforto returns healthy, I am very happy we got him at # 10 that year.  Mets did real good – but from their comments at the time of that draft, they were SHOCKED Conforto slipped to them, so the pick was mostly a no-brainer – but they still had to draft him and not another Shawn Abner, so I'll be nice here.

So, my take is:

Draft power. 

Drafting pitching is a crap shoot, and surgeons love pitchers. 

Hope for the best. 

Pray fervently. 

And be thankful that next June we pick 6^th, not 8^th.  Because maybe the next Andrew Benitendi might be in this draft and would get picked 7th, with us sitting at 8th. 

FORMER Mets manager Terry Collins (somewhere, Reese is smiling) played Aoki, Reyes, and Cabrera a whole lot in September because he loved to salute his vets and also because of his myopic "winning is contagious" philosophy, while a different team would have sat them a whole lot and tanked.  Mets, sadly, are stupid.

That threesome of veterans combined in September with numbers that would have gotten a guy into the All Star game: 92 for 291 (.316), .500 slug %, 43 RBIs, 35 walks.  How many games in a must-lose September from a draft perspective did these 3 guys win for the Mets?  Surely several.  They were just too good.

The Mets' season total wins and losses were not all that far from the team that will get the first pick, and very close to the # 4 and # 5 teams.  More heavily rookie-laden September line ups might have gotten us more losses and a far better pick - and superior draftee. 

I sure know the Cubs were happy they stunk it up and thus had the first pick a few years ago so they could grab Kris Bryant.  I wish the Mets were somehow # 1 this year, rather than # 6.

But Mets' decision-making is often a lot like # 2, and eventually that leads to certain solid substances hitting the fan.  Not good when your life blood is fans.

When it comes to the topic of picks, am I just being too picky?