Reese Kaplan -- Bryce Harper, Too? Ask Trader Bro

So with the proposed Mets/Mariners trade a fait accompli, it’s time to take a look at the prospective new roster (along with the non-tendering of Wilmer Flores) to see who is here, how much money is committed, and what’s left to spend to address other needs.

Let’s first look at the current starting pitching staff.  You have:

• Jacob deGrom (estimated $12.9 million in arbitration)
• Noah Syndergaard (estimated $5.9 million)
• Zack Wheeler (estimated $5.3 million)
• Steven Matz (estimated $3 million)
• Jason Vargas (contract $8 million)

That’s a total of $35.1 million here.

Now let’s look at the current bullpen (subject to improvement, hopefully):

• Edwin Diaz (estimated $1 million)
• Seth Lugo ($600K)
• Robert Gsellman ($600K)
• Drew Smith ($600K)
• Daniel Zamora ($600K)
• Relief Pitcher
• Relief Pitcher

The total for the incomplete bullpen is $3.4 million.

The infield right now would include:

• Todd Frazier ($9 million)
• Robinson Cano ($12 million)
• Amed Rosario ($600)
• Jeff McNeil ($600)
• Travis d’Arnaud (estimated $3.9 million)

Total here would be $26.1 million.

The outfield would include:

• Michael Conforto (estimated $4.4 million)
• Juan Lagares ($9 million)
• Brandon Nimmo ($600)

 This total would be $14 million.

The bench would include:

• Kevin Plawecki (estimated $1.3 million)
• TJ Rivera or Dilson Herrera ($600K)
• Dom Smith ($600K)
• Outfielder
• Outfielder

The incomplete bench would cost $2.5 million.

Then there is the dead money on the DL:

• Yoenis Cespedes ($29.5)
• David Wright ($15)

So, without making any other moves, the Mets are committed to $125.6 million.  They still need to add two relievers and two outfielders at minimum to get to the 25 man total.  Most would advocate needing at least one more solid setup arm to pair with Diaz, an upgrade at catcher and an upgrade/platoon partner in CF.   I'm assuming no reinvestment of the insurance money expected for Wright and Cespedes.

So far Trader Bro’s actions have freed up about $30 million to spend on these deals, but it’s time to see what happens when the next shoe drops.  Methinks if they are serious about shopping Thor then they will attach either Todd Frazier, Jason Vargas or Juan Lagares to the deal to free up about another $14 million to spend.  If the rumored “major league ready prospects” requirement for Thor’s services holds true, then you’re looking at minimum wage assets.  That would seem to make the $44 million available to address needs like David Robertson or Andrew Miller, and maybe even a run at Bryce Harper.

Crazy? 

Well, assuming Miller or Robertson would be somewhere in the $10 million range AAV.  Harper is probably going to command $30 million AAV.  That’s only $40 million.  Remember, too, that Yoenis Cespedes comes off the books after next year and you have expiring contracts on the triumvirate suggested to leave in the Thor deal.  That still leaves $4 million to pick up a couple of $2 million experienced assets for the bullpen or outfield.  (Of course, I’m assuming a catcher is coming over in the Thor deal). 

If done this way, the payroll would actually be the exact same as it was to start 2018, but could look like this:

1B Peter Alonso

2B Robinson Cano

SS Amed Rosario

3B Jeff McNeil

C  TBD

LF  Brandon Nimmo

CF  Bryce Harper

RF  Michael Conforto

This lineup would potentially be vulnerable to high quality southpaws with 5 of the regulars batting from the left side of the plate.   Furthermore, you would have a dropoff in pitching quality if, for example, Seth Lugo replaced Thor in the rotation.  However, that lineup would sure be set up to score a lot of runs.

What do you think?