Mike Freire - Wild Card Chase (Update)

"How's it looking?"

Good Afternoon, Mets' fans.

I am writing this on Monday afternoon (08/19) so the standings that I am about to use will likely be slightly different by the time you read this.  Regardless, we are another week closer to the end of the year, and it is quite interesting how each of the teams in contention is doing.

Here are the aforementioned standings, for your review:

Washington (39)      67-56    +1.5     (-1)
Chicago (38)            66-58      ----     (-4)

Milwaukee (38)       64-60       2.0    (+5)
Philadelphia (38)     64-60       2.0    (+4)
New York (38)         64-60       2.0    (E)
San Francisco (37)   63-62      3.5    (+6)
Arizona (37)             62-63      4.5    (-7)

To lend some clarity to the standings listed above, the number in parentheses represents the number of games that each team has left before the end of the year. Additionally, the "games behind" column is in relation to the second wild card position, currently inhabited by the Cubs.

Lastly, the far right column shows the number of games above or below the "projected wins" that each team currently sits.  In other words, a negative number means that the team is underperforming (Nationals, Diamondbacks and Cubs) and a positive number means that the team is over performing (Brewers, Phillies and Giants).  The numbers are based on season long run differentials and I include them because it can give you clues as to which teams may be poised to drop off or put together a late surge.

As of this blog entry, there are seven teams within six games of each other for the final two playoff positions in the National League with just under 25 percent of the season remaining!  There are still quite a few games to play, so things should get interesting, to say the least.

If you calculate season long winning percentages and apply the same to the rest of the season, the Nationals are on track to finish with 88 wins and the Cubs would be slightly behind them with 86 wins.  So, if you are one of the teams chasing them (like our very own Mets), you would need to outplay them by at least that margin in order to catch and/or surpass them.

For the Mets to reach 88 wins, they would need to finish with a record of 24-14 down the stretch, which computes to a winning percentage of 63.2%, which is pretty high.  That winning percentage over the course of a full season would equate to 102 wins, which is significant.  But the team has been playing pretty well (outside of Atlanta), so it is possible, right?

Here is the team's schedule the rest of the way (shield your eyes);

9 Game Homestand - 3 vs CLE, 3 vs ATL and 3 vs CHI-N

6 Game Roadtrip - 3 @ PHI and 3 @ WAS

10 Game Homestand - 3 vs PHI, 4 vs AZ and 3 vs LAD

6 Game Roadtrip - 3 @ COL and 3 @ CIN

7 Game Homestand - 4 vs MIA and 3 vs ATL

Cool, right?  That's 26 of the remaining 38 games at home, not to mention we get to play several teams under .500 like the Rockies, Reds and Marlins! Winning 24 more games shouldn't be that hard, with home field advantage and our pitching staff.

Or, you could look at the team's 2019 record against their remaining foes (minus the Indians, who we only play this three game set against) and see 38 wins and 37 losses.  That includes a robust 11-4 mark agains the Marlins and a 10-6 mark against the Nationals.  If we remove those two teams, the resulting record is a scary looking 17-27 against everyone else which would NOT get the Mets into the playoffs.

In closing, a majority of the remaining 38 games are against really good teams that are in playoff contention, so the Mets are going to have their collective hands full. The silver lining is that they have multiple games left against four of the six teams that are in the "wild card chase" so they literally have their destiny within their control.

Should be fascinating to watch.

LGFM!