Reese Kaplan -- How to Get to the Playoffs

We’ve heard it all before – how the club is at the proverbial crossroads.  After Thursday night’s game they sit but a single game over .500.  Considering the high-water mark of five games over  and just one game out of the playoff race on August 10^th, they’ve fallen off the pace fairly quickly in the few weeks that have transpired since then.  Many folks were celebrating the return to contention and are horrified to have them fall back to Earth.  Those people don't realize how far forward mediocrity is considering where the club has been the past few years.  Loyal reader Bill Metsiac reminds us that in 1973 the Mets were at the bottom of the pack as late as mid-September.  Consequently, as the calendar prepares to flip to the final month of the regular season, what do the Mets need to do to have a realistic shot at the post-season?

During the 8-game win streak the Mets were scoring an unsustainable 6.75 runs per game while only giving up 3.  During the 16 games since then they have scored 4.31 runs while giving up 4.56.  Consequently, their 6-10 record is not really a big surprise.    

Lost in the nuclear implosion of Noah Syndergaard’s worst-ever start was a sterling performance of the much-maligned bullpen.  They provided 6 innings of shutout ball after Thor’s 10 run (9 earned) debacle.  One of those innings as a 3-strikeout, no-hit, no-walk performance from none other than Edwin Diaz.  Other positive contributors on this disastrous night included Luis Avilan, Paul Sewald and Brad Brach.  In total they provided 6 IP, 4 hits, 1 walk and 8 strikeouts.  THAT’S the kind of bullpen pitching the club has been needing all year long.

Also lost in the shuffle was the ongoing uselessness from Juan Lagares, he of the 0-5 collar, dropping him to a 2017/2018 Frazier-like .213.  He got the starting nod again on Thursday and now he's down to just .210.  His partner in ineptitude, Todd Frazier, had more hits in this game than seemingly in the past several weeks combined when he entered the game as a pinch hitter, remained in, going 2-4 and raising his season’s batting average to a less-than-lofty .229 before reverting to form on Thursday with another 0-fer collar. 

So going forward, what must the Mets do to have any shot at the playoffs?  Well, the obvious answer is that they need to score more runs than their opponents, but the starting pitching which had been so good after the All Star break needs to rediscover its magic.  Marcus Stroman has been as bad as early-season Jason Vargas, Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler have been odiferous of late (though Matz gets something of a pass as he’s been on a roll until his last game).  Only Jacob deGrom has been old reliable, someone you know will keep you in the game, but even he succumbed to a two-homer losing effort on Thursday night.

The bullpen has been surprisingly good of late.  Resurgences from Justin Wilson and Jeurys Familia have been most welcome.  A healthy Luis Avilan is throwing the way they had hoped.  As good as Brad Brach looked on Wednesday, the fact is he’s thus far pitching to a fugly 7.50 ERA.  Paul Sewald is, to most Mets fans, an instant groan when he enters a game, but you might be surprised to learn that thus far in his limited use he’s pitching to just a 3.00 ERA.  Seth Lugo has been consistently good.

Edwin Diaz, unfortunately, has not been good, but since blowing a save on his first game after the All Star break is pitching to a 4.50 ERA which is decidedly better than what we’ve seen.  More importantly, during that streak he’s saved 7 games, blown 1 save and continued to rack up strikeouts at a prodigious rate – 83 in less than 50 innings pitched.  He’s holding batters to a good, not great .232 BAA. 

So we know the starting pitching needs to get back on track.  We know the bullpen needs to build on its recent success.  What of the hitters?  We can see what Wilson Ramos, Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto and Amed Rosario are doing.  They are fine.  

The issue is the use of guys like Todd Frazier, Juan Lagares and Joe Panik.  There is something to be said for the fine defense all of them bring to the table, but their offense is pretty woeful.  I recently outlined that Lagares, for example, is on a pace for less than 24 RBIs on a full season.  Winning clubs can’t sustain that lack of production, particularly when the pitching isn't holding the opposition to 3.5 runs or less.  Panik was cut by San Francisco for a reason.  He’s hitting .267 with the Mets which is close to his career .271 AVG and markedly better than the .235 he delivered to the Giants.  However, he has trended downward for the past three years offensively and for a club challenged to score runs, the return of Brandon Nimmo can’t happen soon enough as it will allow Jeff McNeil to slot in at 2B.  The equation is Nimmo > Panik.  That’s undebatable. 

The bigger question is what of Jed Lowrie?  Is he going to be more productive than Todd Frazier?  Can he hold up to playing nearly every day at 3B?  For his last two years in Oakland he has averaged .272/18/84.  That’s the kind of offensive shot in the arm the club can use right now.  Homering in his AAA rehab assignment last night suggests the time may indeed be near.  JD Davis could also move to 3B which is allegedly his natural position, but that would again return the unproductive Juan Lagares to the regular lineup. 

The wildcard in all of this is Robinson Cano who, since the All Star break is hitting .284 with 6 HRs and 14 RBIs in just about a month.  THAT’S the kind of production the Mets were expecting when they traded for him and his return would enable them to consider JD Davis at 3B with Lowrie becoming a supersub, McNeil in the outfield once again with both Frazier and Lagares where they belong on the bench, available for late inning defense.