One of the things I’ve learned in my career in IT project
management is that you must play everything like a chess game, planning several
moves ahead instead of merely reacting to situations as they arise. As the Mets started their improbable rise in
the standings, many people were assuming there would be a major post-Alderson
housecleaning taking place so that Brodie Van Wagenen could have a built-in
scapegoat for why things went off the rails.
Now that fortunes have turned, there are still a number of
personnel situations that should be analyzed for what hopefully is the
beginning of a run of a few productive seasons at Citifield. Let’s take a look at the roster for 2020:
Pete Alonso
Robinson Cano
Amed Rosario
(third base)
(left field)
(centerfield)
Michael Conforto
(catcher)
Jacob deGrom
Noah Syndergaard
Marcus Stroman
Steven Matz
(5th starter)
Edwin Diaz
Jeurys Familia
Justin Wilson
Seth Lugo
Robert Gsellman
(setup guy)
(swing man)
Now some of you are already shaking your heads saying, “Well,
what about Jeff McNeil? What about J.D.
Davis? What about Yoenis Cespedes?”
Good questions, all.
Can we all agree that the right side of the infield is
set? I think so. Cano may not have been what they had hoped,
but at his salary he’s going to play.
Pete Alonso is a given.
For those of you with visions of Amed Rosario in
centerfield, remember that there’s no one in AAA really ready to take over the reigns
at shortstop. While many have gushed
over his offensive game, has anyone noticed that for about two months he’s
showing signs of the plus defensive skills scouts raved about in the
minors? He’s there for sure.
Now we get to the first big question mark. Does McNeil play 3B? How about J.D. Davis? Then there’s Jed Lowrie. About the only thing we can be sure about is
that Todd Frazier will not be the starter in 2020.
The outfield is just as muddy as third base. Michael Conforto for sure is one of the people
out there. How healthy is Brandon
Nimmo? How healthy is Yoenis
Cespedes? Is J.D. Davis less of a
liability in LF than he is at 3B? Does
the club need to go get a real centerfielder in the mold of a Lorenzo Cain who
can contribute both offensively and defensively?
The next big question mark is catcher. It became clear during 2019 that the pitchers
greatly preferred throwing to the more defensively adept Tomas Nido than the
offensive oriented Wilson Ramos. You’ve
got the big guy for one more year. Is he
better served in the AL where he could DH when not catching? That’s a pretty good chip to peddle, but it
also creates a void as Nido has shown nada as a hitter.
The starting rotation is set in four positions but Zack
Wheeler is a free agent. Unless the club
uncharacteristically and intelligently uses its exclusive negotiating window to
sign him to a contract extension, you may have to plan on filling that hole as
well.
The bullpen, for all of the kerosene they brought to the
fires in 2019, looks surprisingly crowded.
Five of the seven slots appear sewn up already. Folks like Luis Avilan are somewhat fungible
in that they are nice to haves but not necessities. Drew Smith may or may not be ready to throw
is post-TJS hat into the ring, too.
Then there’s the bench (or lack thereof). Dominic Smith is still a man without a position. If J.D. Davis winds up a starter somewhere,
then there are a lot of holes to fill without a lot of talent waiting in the wings.
Personally, I think Smith becomes a trade chip. Nimmo can’t net much unless he comes back for
at least the month of September.
Cespedes is pretty much untradeable.
Cano is untradeable. Ramos could
go in the right deal, but who’s going to replace him?
Methinks it’s going to be a very busy winter.
16 comments:
Cespedes is a very interesting question - one would think that unless he did permanent limiting damage to his leg when he broke it, he should be back. But will he be any good upon his return? My guess is he will be a major upgrade still to Lagares/Altherr - but should be a 4th outfielder until he proves he is better than that.
No need to wonder if anyone will be coming up from the minors to crack the line up. Ali Sanchez and Pat Mazeika seem like the only 2 with an outside chance to make the 25 man - and only as back up catchers.
I hope what someone said is true - that Cano's hands from being hit inhibited his abilities until just before his leg injury - maybe he can do more in 2020.
Lowrie? Who the heck knows. All I can tell you is he has to be behind Davis.
One thing anyone who's been paying attention already knows is that Brodie is an aggressive GM unafraid the take risks and make moves. I agree that it will be an active Winter, even after we win the (cough) World Series. Standing pat is not in his genes.
If I were involved in the FO, I would make getting a true CFer a top priority. I like the two Martes, the ones on PIT and AZ, and I see Dom as part of the package to get one.
For 3B and LF, it looks like Squirrel and JDD, but I don't know which is which. And the elephant in the room is Yo, who either has a permanent disability or will be fully healed by ST. Whatever his mystery injury is, a full year of healing should suffice.
I expect Wheeler to be back, filling the rotation. And with the very promising list of Catchers a year or more away, keeping Ramos should be a no-brainer.
The pen, as is the case everywhere, is in a state of flux. There will probably be changes but it's much too soon to call.
It's interesting to see how the managerial picture has changed. Mickey has tranditioned from Dead Man Walking to potential MOTY, and unless there are serious issues underlying his relationship with Brodie, I expect him back.
Lowrie who? 😁
He could be following Mr. Tulo into retirement unless he miraculously heals.
(Slightly) off-topic: is it just me or does it seem like there are even-year and odd-year RP's?
Hobie, NY Post had article today that Nimmo was very close to a rehab assignment and Lowrie is progressing too.
It would be nice to have the two back HEALTHY for all of Sept. (hopefully, Nimmo sooner - Altherr and Lagares are beyond awful).
It's nice to see folks jumping on the Lagares bandwagon. I've been advocating getting rid of him since last year :)
All -
I agree with Reese here. Many of our core players and positions are... here comes that word again... fluid.
McNeil and J.D. are and will be two of my core players, but where they play will determine on the health of others, and what those others do in spring training.
Alonso owns first base.
A healthy Cano will play second if for no other reasons than the money owed him.
Rosario is a lock until Gimenez comes knocking on his door.
Lowrie would be my third baseman, unless he is still injured or slowed by age. Then, I would move J.D. to third.
Dom is sub one at OF and 1B, but I would let other GMs know that he is available
Outfield wise, Conforto is a lock... Nimmo gets a starting shot based on what he did last year... and McNeil slots in as the third starter.
I would buy Cespedes a larger ranch and reach a deal with him.
\
Mack, is that the same Gimenez who is 4 for his last 30 and hitting just .239?
Pitchers get promoted mid-season and presumably have less pitching ability than those who have been there for the whole season - yet Gimenez continues to scuffle. After a poor Arizona Fall League last fall with the bat.
He still has to prove to me that he is as good as Reese's favorite, Ruben Tejada, before I view him as a real answer to anything going forward.
He will be useful on a 26 man roster for his speed and defense, though.
I think McNeil 3B & JD OF is a stronger defensive sum than vice versa.
Assuming that:
> Yo, Conforto & JD in the OF (Yo preferably in RF), Nimmo & Dom (spot 1B) in reserve.
> Alonso, Cano, Rosario, McNeil IF with Lowrie & Panik(?) in reserve.
> Prefer extending Zack before looking at FA's Cole, Bumgarner, Cole, et al.
> Belances, Vizcaino possible pen FA targets. Eager to see how Brach works out & Drew recovery.
> C2 totally unknown. Would call up Rivera now, btw.
Cannot predict trades--like playing poker with yourself.
Hobie, that looks like a great team.
Tom
Yes, That is the same Gimenez that is playing at two levels above his age.
Cano makes them a worse team. Defensively he looks like a major liability and he hasn't hit. Someone trying to win should not be starting him. He will cost the Mets wins. I find it unlikely that at age 37 his bat will rebound enough to make up for his defense to add value. Also you already have JD Davis as a defensive shortcoming which is easier tolerated when you have a strong up the middle defense and at least you know is bat is going to make up for it.
Dallas, you know they're gonna play him $$$$$$
Mack, Gimenez hit .277 in AA last year over nearly 40 games at age 19. Really puzzling that he would be 40 points lower this year..
Cespedes will be healthy right after his contract is up.
Lowrie will be healthy right after his contract is up. He learned from Cespedes.
JD LF, Conforto CF, Nimmo RF, McNeil 3B.
Brodie brings back Wheeler after the season.
Kind of liked the suggested trade of Aaron Hicks for Stroman. Hicks in CF for a couple of years would be great for the Mets and Stroman is a Yankee fan anyway.
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I'm not gonna lie this lineup would be pretty nasty in any configuration (that doesnt include Cano). Honestly I don't know what BVW targets in the offseason outside of bullpen help and some depth. Having McNeil being able to play 4 positions has so much value that can't be measured with any traditional stats. I just don't know how they will dole out the time for Smith, Lowrie, Ces, Cano I have to think the other guys are going to start if healthy. Can you really sit JD Davis or Nimmo in favor of playing Cano and Ces?? Getting a healthy Nimmo back this year is a major offensive upgrade if her performs anything close to last year.
C - Ramos
1B - Alonso
2B - McNeil
3B - Lowrie
SS - Rosy
LF - JD Davis
CF - Nimmo
RF - Conforto
Utility - Lowrie
Bench - Smith, Ces, Cano
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