Occasionally when two irresistible forces meet there is a
spectacular collision. Most opt to go
one way or the other to avoid just such a catastrophe. Right now the Mets are facing that very precarious
scenario as they must decide if they are playing for today, the end of the year
or 2020 and beyond.
Picture by John Mackinade
One of the most frequent mantras in sports is to ride the
hot hand. I myself have criticized the Mets
many times for failing to do so and having losing results for their decision
making. Right now the situation has once
again reared its head in the form of Juan Lagares, the $9 million man who basically
has stolen the Wilpons’ money since signing his big contract extension in
2015. In his best year he hit .281 with
4 HRs and 47 RBIs while earning a Gold Glove.
Right now he’s on what most people regard as a formidable
hot streak. Yes, his batting average is
indeed respectable as he has delivered to the tune of .313 for the past month
(July 25th through August 25th). But people don’t look past the batting
average to see it is pretty empty. In
those 30 days he has delivered 0 HRs and just 4 RBIs. That is a pace for a season of 24 RBIs. That is half the total of what I’d considered
the emptiest .300 season ever when in 1974 Elliott Maddox of the Yankees hit
.303 with just 3 HRs and 45 RBIs for the entire season. That is pretty pathetic but at roughly half
that run production pace you find Juan Lagares. It suggests he gets his hits in non-critical situations much like Paul Sewald pitches well when it doesn't matter.
Picture by John Mackinade
Brandon Nimmo is coming back soon to the big club and as a
point of reference, last year he hit 17 HRs and drove in 47 while hitting a
respectable .263. He also sported an
enviable .404 OBP which helped garner a 4.4 WAR rating. (For frame of reference, with his hot streak,
Juan Lagares’ WAR rating is -0.8). With the game on the line, runner in scoring position, 2 men out would you want Juan Lagares at the plate? I sure wouldn't. I'd take my chances on pretty much anyone else (including sluggers like Jacob deGrom).
So the crossroads you’ve reached again has a parallel back
to the Terry Collins days. Do you
continue to trot out the guy on the expiring free agent contract (Jose Reyes) who may or may
not help you but is likely not going to be there in the future anyway, or do
you hand the starting assignments over to someone who has proven to deliver at
a higher rate and will be part of the future?
Furthermore, by playing Brandon Nimmo you also showcase him for future
trade possibilities – another benefit to having him start at least 25 of the
September games.
Picture by Ed Delaney
You have another similar situation with veteran Todd Frazier
at 3B who has been sub-Mendoza for over a month now. Yes, he’s a respectable fielder and yes, he’s
well liked in the clubhouse, but the last time I looked the objective was to
win games not make friends.
When Jed
Lowrie returns he should slot in every day at 3B with Jeff McNeil taking over
at 2B as was the plan from the beginning. If you recall, Frazier was supposed to cross the diamond to 1B and Pete Alonso was supposed to start in AAA. You trot out an outfield of JD
Davis in LF, Brandon Nimmo in CF and Michael Conforto in RF. Again, you have Lowrie who is on the club for
next year and whose salary you must pay anyway.
Frazier is leaving as his contract ends.
This decision should be even easier to make considering how little he’s contributed
in the last 30 days.
Now if you decide you are out of contention (and many have after the Braves sweep and the loss of game 1 to the Cubs) then there is NO
JUSTIFIABLE REASON to play anyone who is on an expiring contract (including
Zack Wheeler, I might add). If you think
you’re still in it, then you should field the team with the best chance of
winning. Guys with .198 averages or who
have only driven in 4 runs in a month are not the way to do it. Either way, when Nimmo and Lowrie return, it’s
time to move on from the status quo.
18 comments:
I am so annoyed that Lowrie is not ready - if he were ready a month ago, he'd have really been an upgrade over washed up Todd
Imagine if the Braves had Todd this year and we had Donaldson....
They are 3 games out, playing head to head against the Cubs. Only an idiot could "decide" the Mets are out of contention. Obviously, they are still in it.
The guys you mention as replacements aren't ready. Nimmo basically hasn't played all year and doesn't look good in AAA (saw the game last night, he didn't square up a single ball).
And Lowrie? Come on.
Yes, I'd love for them to magically appear, able to perform. That's not happening yet.
Play to win now. Yes, sure, Lagares and Frazier are not good and are at the end of their contracts. I'm not a fan of either. But for now, they are the best guys to play against LHP, are both good defenders on a poor defensive team, and the Mets simply don't have better options.
It would be nice if they did. But they don't.
So play the games, try to win, ENJOY IT, and see what happens. This is great experience for the young core. Could be that this turns out to be a building block season. Or maybe they give us a couple of hot weeks down the stretch. That's all it will take to get to Game 163.
Jimmy
Jimmy is right. Expecting 2 guys who haven't played all uear and aren't exactly yearing up the minors in rehab to step in and play every day is fantasy at best.
Benching our only true CFer, who is hitting so well for over a month, because in the 8-hole he isn't driving in runs doesn't help anything. A run saved is at least as important as one driven in, and watching 4to last night illustrated that well.
And endless references to our former manager no longer have any meaning whatsoever.
Even with the losses of the last week, we are all of THREE games out of the WC, with over a month left to play. How would juggling the lineup that has been one of the most successful in MLB since the break make any sense?
Reese -
We are not 'out of it' yet.
We do seem to be stringing the noose over the tree limb, but there is still life in these bones.
Now, ask me the same question after we finish the Cubs series, then the next one, and see how we rank up with the Cubs, Phils Brewers, and Nats... and I might have a different answer for you.
But... yes... if you are throwing the towel in you also throw in the expiring players with it.
It's as much about both Wheel's and Stroman not carrying their load as with Zach timing is everything and if only he could be last years version we're probably tied with the Cubbies already. Now the Frazier "debate" really shouldn't be one at all as he's been terrible and we HAVE to stop playing guys to justify their inflated salaries and pitiful production or we're never going to succeed even in our own division no less challenging for WS rings. Look us long suffering Met fans have to hope this new FO will have the backing of ownership to finally move on from the SA "must save a buck before anything else" mentality.
Gary -
This team will always be executed the same way under a Wilpon ownership because, if the current lackeys aren't given the useless title of GM and Field Manager, there just will be two more limpless weenies in those positions.
You need to cut the head off of the snake.
Id probably move JD to 3rd, but McNeil at second and nimmo in left. If he's hitting at all, Legares in CF just makes the team better. And when Lowrie shows up id probably use McNeil as a Zobrist and just move him around between, OF, 2nd and 3rd. Its hard to take Davis out of the lineup, but if hes in OF so should be Legares.
In terms of team needs for 2020, I'd place a true CF at the top of that list.
I don't know who is out there, if anyone.
Can shift McNeil to 3B to fill that hole.
There's no solutions in A or AA or AAA.
I still don't rule out the possible Rosario shift to CF, but Mets don't have SS replacement pushing for time . . . yet.
Face LHP tonight, so I'd play Lagares and Frazier and sit Panik in favor of McNeil at 2B.
Jimmy
Mack, if you really BELIEVE that the problem lies with ownership, and you KNOW that the owners are not leaving, then there's no point staying as a Mets fan.
That's like saying "I love living in Seattle, but as long as it rains so much it sucks".
If you stay with the team, you may not like the owners, but you must accept that they're part of the package and can't be "cut off like the head of the snake".
Why should McNeil, and not Lowrie, be the "Mets Zobrist"? Isn't that the role Lowrie was signed to fill?
Jimmy -
The free agent market is weak for under 30/yr. old CFers.
We can trade for one, but it will cost ua 2 more top prospects in our chain.
So,,, what do we do?
Trade Gimenez and Baty for a ++ CFer?
Or keep the one we've got.
How does moving our SS to CF give us a "true CFer"?
Bill
BTW... I have said this 100 times.
I am NOT a Mets fan.
I am a METS WRITER
ALL
You can not have it both ways.
If you want better players that are already time tested in the majors... you are going to have to sacrifice players that are aleady on your 25-man or chips in your pipeline.
I know that. What's your point?
Woe, some outstanding posts here today. Funny how disappointment encourages everyone's fur up. But this is not over people, there is still hope and reason. I agree totally.
So what really happened you ask.
Several things actually. The Mets had captured incredible magic for several games. We all saw this, and it was truly remarkable. But it was not unpredictable or ironic in anyway. Some critics might say that the Mets during this run had played over their heads as a ball club. I disagree. The talent here is top flight and there were no real surprises as this young team came together as one. That's what happened during the winning streak, the team realized the crazy amount of ability they had as one offensive unit.
What happened in the current losing streak actually happens to every single solitary really good young team on its way to greater things. It wasn't somekind of a derailment at all, and there may have been a few miscues, a couple of key injuries that hurt, but nothing to derail the NY Mets train. The train slowed down, players didn't get their rest, but the train still works and runs very well. It remains in very good condition heading forward. The energy level will pick back up as the season progresses.
The train is just starting, so understand this point. I still love this group of Mets players. So LGM!
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