Aidan Cooke - New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies Series Preview

 

  The Mets, looking to come back from a series loss in Miami, will head back to Citi Field to host the Colorado Rockies. The Mets departed for their road trip in high spirits, having won 7 straight games. Since then, they have gone 3-6 and key players such as Taijuan Walker, Pete Alonso, and Kevin Pillar have been added to the ever-growing IL. Hopefully, a combination of players returning and a lighter schedule can put some win in New York's sails and allow them to separate from the pack in the NL East.

    The Rockies just wrapped up a sweep over the Arizona Diamondbacks, but still sit in the NL West's cellar with an 18-29 record. Furthermore, they have been dreadful on the road, going just 2-17 away from Coors Field. Their abysmal road offense has undoubtedly contributed to their poor record. Collectively, the Rockies have hit .209/.272/.300 (.572 OPS); all of those numbers rank dead last in the majors. 

    This is nothing new for the Rockies, though. Over the last 10 seasons, they have the worst offensive stats on the road and the best offensive stats at home by a wide margin. Their differential is the widest margin of any team, even when accounting for park-adjusted statistics. The Coors Effect may improve hitters' abilities at home, but it also worsens their play on the road. A good example of this would be Nolan Arenado, who has hit .266/.323/.476 on the road for his career but upped his road stats to .322/.359/.538 this season with the Cardinals. It's admittedly a small sample size, but this trend is apparent in other well-known Rockies, such as DJ Lemahieu or Matt Holliday. 

    Anyway, what matters is that the Rockies have kept up their poor road performance, and that's not solely because of the Coors Effect. The Rockies have failed to create a lineup with any depth and traded away their star player, Nolan Arenado, this offseason. Shortstop Trevor Story is by far the most notable name and is likely to be traded at the deadline or depart in free agency after this year. He has not played up to his usual standards in 2021, hitting .257/.326/.425 with just 0.3 WAR in 45 games, a big step back from the 2.6 WAR he had in 59 games in 2020, the 7.0 WAR in 2019, and the 6.2 WAR in 2018. Despite his early struggles, nobody should count him out. Story did hit a walk-off home run last night, so maybe that can fuel a resurgence for him.

    CJ Cron and Ryan McMahon are the other two names to watch out for. Cron was signed to a minor-league deal late in the offseason and has been one of former GM Jeff Bridich's rare free agent successes. Cron has a .306/.356/.500 line with 5 HRs in 33 games. Cron has always been a solid-hitting first baseman but never found a consistent home, bouncing around the Angels, Rays, Twins, Tigers; the Rockies are now his 5th different team in 5 years. Since 2018, he has averaged a 116 wRC+, a .812 OPS, and 33 homers per 162 games. 

    McMahon, the starting 2B, has combined tremendous defense with a productive bat for 1.9 WAR, which leads the Rockies and is 7th in the National League. McMahon hasn't gotten on base at a high rate, with only a .304 OBP, but when he does get hits he makes them count, with a .509 SLG, .343 wOBA, and 11 HRs. He may even be underperforming, shown by his .552 expected SLG and .368 xwOBA. 

    Josh Fuentes has taken over the third base job after Arenado's departure and hasn't fully filled Nolan's shoes, to put it lightly. Like McMahon. Fuentes has a low OBP (.286) but a better SLG (.440), but unlike McMahon, he is overperforming by a good amount. Additionally, his defense at the hot corner has been very poor, with -4 OAA.

    Colorado's starting outfield consists of Charlie Blackmon in RF, Raimel Tapia in LF, and Garrett Hampson in CF. Blackmon signed a 6 year/$108 million extension in 2018 at 31 years old, and predictably that deal has not looked good for the Rockies. His offense has been solid but his defense in the outfield has been extremely underwhelming, dragging his value down. He accumulated 3.3 WAR in the first two seasons of his deal and started out red hot in 2020 before going stone cold. His poor play has continued into 2021, with a .711 OPS, 86 wRC+, and -0.4 WAR. 

    Garrett Hampson has had the best season of his young career, but it has amounted to much, with a 79 wRC+ and .716 OPS. He has never provided much pop either, with 18 career home runs in 662 ABs, but 5 of those home runs have come in 2021. What he does offer is good defense and great speed around the bases. Raimel Tapia has a similar profile, with great bat-to-ball skills but not much power or extra-base abilities, with a lot of soft contact and ground balls. This year he has improved his walk rate to a career-high 9% and his strikeout rate to a career-low 12.4%. 

    Behind the plate, the Rockies' catching duo of Dom Nunez and Elias Diaz has been arguably the worst in baseball, combining for -0.7 WAR, a 31 wRC+, and a .160/.229/.313 line. For comparison, the Atlanta Braves' pitchers have hit .203/.213/.329 with a 44 wRC+. That's not what you'd call ideal for Colorado, especially considering their defense hasn't been good either. 

    Predictably, the Rockies have not had good pitching overall. Their team ERA of 4.96 ranks 27th, their FIP of 4.66 is 28th, their xFIP of 4.54 is 28th, and their 19.7 K-BB% is 30th. 

    Southpaw Austin Gomber will take the ball for the opening game of the series. Gomber, acquired from the Cardinals this offseason, has put together some good performances in his last four starts, going 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA, averaging about 5.2 innings per start. His stats don't look great initially, with an ERA of 4.96, but outside of one blow-up start against the Giants (1.2 IP, 9 ER), he has a 3.30 ERA. 

    Germán Márquez will pitch game three, making his second start against the Mets this season. Márquez threw 7 innings of 2-hit, 2-run ball when he faced the Mets at Coors Field back in mid-April. Now, he'll be pitching on the road, where he owns a career 3.55 ERA, and at the pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Overall this season,  Germán has a 4.82 ERA but a 3.97 FIP and 3.90 xFIP. His metrics are bogged down by his 5.16 BB/9, which looks more like an outlier than a new trend since his next-highest BB/9 for a season is 2.76 from the short 2020 season. Márquez is balancing it out by generating groundballs and soft contact. He could potentially carve up New York's lineup if his control is, well, in control. The Rockies' starters for games 2 and 4 are currently TBD.

    As for the Mets, it's the usual guessing game of who starts when. Jordan Yamamoto pitched 4 innings in Sunday's loss and Lucchesi also threw 4 frames in the game before. David Peterson looks most likely to start the opening game because he hasn't pitched since last Wednesday. Peterson has had a very up-and-down year, seemingly throwing a gem or a dud whenever he pitches. He continued that trend by allowing 3 earned runs in 4.2 innings against the Braves after holding the Rays to 2 runs in 7.1 IP. Peterson historically pitches worse at home, but against a weak Rockies lineup, there is a chance he could buck that trend and turn in a much-needed solid performance. Marcus Stroman, coming off of 6 strong innings in game 1 against the Marlins, will likely start the third or fourth game of the series. Thomas Szapucki, a minor league lefthander who looks poised to debut sometime soon, threw 4 innings on Saturday and has a 2.77 ERA in 13 innings at AAA in 2021. Syracuse's manager, Chad Kreuter, remarked that Szapucki's stuff is ready for the major leagues, but his only chance to pitch against Colorado looks like the series finale.

    The big news is that Jacob deGrom is slated to return on Tuesday. deGrom had cruised through his first five starts of the year before stumbling against the Diamondbacks and ultimately leaving due to injury. His turn in the rotation had already been skipped once before that start, but deGrom looks fully healthy to take on the Rockies, who provide Jake with a nice buffer before he pitches against tougher opponents. deGrom pitched 6 innings without allowing an earned run against the Rockies in mid-April, picking up 14 strikeouts in the process. Normally, there could be a decent chance that he would eclipse that number against the Rockies, but deGrom's leash may be a bit shorter after his stint on the IL. The Mets desperately need innings, though, so if deGrom is cruising once again he could go into the latter third of the game. 

    Given the Rockies' abysmal road performance, the Mets' good road record, and the return of Jacob deGrom, I will predict that the Mets take the series 3-1. If the team were fully healthy, 3-1 against the Rockies would be the minimum expectation for a playoff contender, but the Mets' lineup has been stripped of so many impact players they could realistically split or lose this set. Ultimately, it comes down to how much longer the pitching can carry the Mets, but it seems like they could stretch it out for at least 4 games longer with the shape Colorado's lineup is in.