Reese Kaplan -- Setting Front Office Winter Priorities (Part 3)

We've looked thus far at pitching and infield offense.  Several folks contributed thoughts on the latter regarding James McCann, Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and the man who might be displace, Eduardo Escobar.  

Now it's time to look at perhaps the thinnest position on the New York Mets -- outfield.

Before you all get hopping up and down angry for that conclusion, allow me to remind you of two things from last season.  How well did the Mets do when Starling Marte went down with his injury?  Do you recall when the slump began and perpetuated in earnest?

Next, let me also point out that Brandon Nimmo is a free agent.  He's a bit of a divisive player in that every time you think you have him figured out he does something to surprise you.  He came up as a suspect outfielder in the corners and now has transformed himself into one of the better glove men playing center field.  

He's always had the OBP numbers that were enviable, but earlier in his on-again/off-again career he showed more home run power than he does now.  Yet with the decrease in power has come an increase in baserunning speed that he uses to stay out of double plays and to try for the extra base when someone hits a ball when he's on base already.  What he doesn't do is use it to steal bases.

Perhaps the biggest surprise about Nimmo, however, is the combination of all that he does.  He's not an All Star at his performance level, yet everyone is planning for him to earn somewhere in the vicinity of $20 to $25 million per season for about 5 years.  That's a lot of coin for someone who has shown to be very good but not great.  

The number that perhaps justifies the investment is his current WAR score.  By Baseballreference.com they have him pegged at 5.1 for this past season.  Depending on whose calculations you feel are valid, that 5.1 score translates to $5.4 million per WAR.  

So with a 5.1 score you're looking at a $27 million value from a player.  Those projections for a 5-year deal for $25 million per season seems on par with that extrapolation.  By comparison Starling Marte earns less.

The third leg of the three man outfield is last year's free agent newcomer Mark Canha.  Almost a clone of Nimmo, Canha's power was down but his batting average and OBP were up.  He was earning more than Nimmo as he had done the free agency dance already and at age 33 already he's getting paid for his past accomplishments.  

For the season Canha finished with a .266 average, 13 HRs and 61 RBIs to go along with a .367 OBP.  His WAR was half of Nimmo's at 2.5.  

On a pure stats basis, Nimmo didn't accomplish much more with the bat.  He finished 2022 hitting .274 with 16 HRs and 64 RBIs.  His OBP was an identical .367.  He did this in 580 ABs.  Canha has 120 fewer and accomplished just about the same.  Where Nimmo shined is with his center field defense.  Canha is adequate while Nimmo is among the best in the league.  

Then there's the fourth outfielder who might again find himself out there in 2023 -- batting champion Jeff McNeil.  Like Canha, he doesn't embarrass himself on the green grass, but he's a far superior hitter.  

OK, so let's consider for a minute what happens if indeed another club finds Brandon Nimmo irresistible and the Mets are not willing to fork over a superior paycheck given Nimmo's injury history and his very good but hardly noteworthy output.  

Who plays center field?  Is it Starling Marte in the later stage of his career assuming the role he once received a Gold Glove to play?  Do the Mets try to convert one of their many minor league bats from the infield into a center fielder?  Do they have to look outside the organization to find someone?

Right now with McNeil at least penciled in to play second base, you are going to be fighting for ABs for the rookies and for Eduardo Escobar.  Canha and Escobar earn north of $10 million and that's big money (at least by Wilpon former standards) to have someone sit on the bench.  

If McNeil becomes a full time outfielder, then who plays second base?  If Nimmo returns, what money would the Mets have available to address issues with starting pitching, relief pitching and catching?  It's a complex set of questions to be answered, but there are no truly outstanding starter-capable outfielders in AAA either.  

For all the grief the Mets have taken for their perceived 101-win failure to advance and their huge number of free agents potentially departing, it really seems as if there is a bit of a black hole when it comes to strengthening the outfield.