Paul Articulates – Arms in the farms

Pitching has been a recurring topic in Mets media all year because of the difficulty at the MLB level to get quality starts and shut down relief at the same time.  Often the discussion turns to all the prospects that were highly touted coming up through the development system.  There have been many names thrown out there as the “guys to watch” but few if any make their way through the minors unscathed.

Let’s go through a few that you may recognize.  

In AAA, there is Mike Vasil, a 2021 8th round pick by the Mets who was highly touted as a high school pitcher in Massachusetts.  Vasil pitched well on his way through the system but hit some speed bumps upon arrival in Syracuse.  He had a 5.30 ERA in 16 games at that level last year, and has a similar 5.46 ERA in 21 games at Syracuse in 2024.  He may be a victim of the robo-ump system at AAA, as his WHIP has changed significantly since arriving there.  In 2022 he had a 1.08 WHIP, in 2023 he had a 0.84 WHIP at the AA level, and then his WHIP has been 1.48 at the AAA level both in 2023 and 2024.  Sometimes good movement gets calls on balls just outside the strike zone with human umps, but the camera does not lie which leads to more of those borderline calls being balls.  If it is great movement that is holding him back, Vasil still has the potential to get back on track with some control improvements.  

Next is Dom Hamel, a 2021 third rounder who also impressed on his way up through the minors and also hit the same speed bump in Syracuse.  He has been hit hard this year in 97 innings over 20 games, currently sporting a 6.40 ERA and a .257 batting average against.  Hamel was missing a lot of bats at the AA level, but that has proven to be much more difficult at the AAA level.  One might argue that it is harder for everyone, as the Syracuse team has the 4th best ERA in the International League at 4.54.   Hamel has shown month-over-month improvement this year, but has a long way to go before a call-up to Queens.

Blade Tidwell is a third prospect pitching at the AAA level in Syracuse this year.  Tidwell was a second round pick in 2022 by the Mets and like the aforementioned players he did well in the system before arriving in Syracuse.  After walking 11 in 37 innings at AA Binghamton, Tidwell has now walked 33 in 48 innings at AAA Syracuse.  Can you see a common theme building here?  Now I don’t want to start a whole conspiracy theory about robot umpires, but something is going on with these top prospects at this level.  Something is going on with all the teams in the International League – the league ERA is 5.21 and the league WHIP is 1.51.  So at least our prospects are on par with the league average.  That may not be good enough for promotion, but it is also not reason to hit the eject button.

Brandon Sproat is new to AAA, having just been called up on August 5th after dominating hitters at the A+ and AA levels this year.  Like his peers above, he was a high draft pick (Mets #2 in 2023) and had outstanding stats in the A+ and AA levels.  He was striking out people in AA at an 11.1 k/9 rate and only walking 2.1 per nine innings.  Let’s see how that translates in AAA.

In Binghamton, with Tidwell and Sproat promoted to AAA and Tyler Stuart traded to the Nationals, the top of the rotation is manned by Joander Suarez and Luis Moreno.  

Suarez was a stand-out last year in Binghamton and pitched very well early this year.  After a rough stretch in June, he seems to be hitting his stride again lately.  He has won his last three starts, including a gem on Tuesday where he struck out nine and walked only one in six and two thirds innings.  

Luis Moreno also pitched well in his last start on Sunday.  He pitched five scoreless innings, also with 9 Ks and only one walk.  For more on Moreno, you can read Tom Brennan’s prospect profile in his pre-season post.

More information on our pitching prospects will follow in subsequent posts.  Stay tuned.