Reese Kaplan -- GM Meetings Begin With a Few Surprises

The recent preparatory roster actions prior to Monday’s GM meetings beginning in San Antonion that coincidentally corresponds with the November 5th 5:00 PM deadline for free agency to start in earnest, some of these moves were somewhat expected but also somewhat not.  David Stearns’ decisions to make free agent Qualifying Offers to Pete Alonso and Sean Manaea really came as no surprise to anyone.  Alonso is sure to surpass the QO dollar value given his resume and Sean Manaea having put together the best season of his career is also due to overtake that financial fence post. 

Where it started to a bit murkier was when the QO extended to fellow departing starting pitcher Luis Severino was announced.  When Stearns took a chance on the more injured than not Severino during the previous off season many were questioning the wisdom of having done so. 

Fast forward to the close of the 2024 season and the biggest thing that surprised people about what Severino was able to accomplish was his health.  He made 31 starts, spent no long stints on the IL and while he finished the season with a respectable if unspectacular 3.91 ERA, he seemed to fade down the stretch as exhaustion likely overtook him having pitched pretty much not at all over the previous few seasons. 

Is the number a high one for Severino?  Yes, it probably is.  However, given his age of just having turned 30 and his proof both in the Bronx and in Queens of being able to throw effectively on a huge New York stage, it’s not a crazy number and it could stand to land the Mets an unexpected compensatory draft pick if he winds up signing elsewhere if he indeed does not accept that $21.05 million offer. 

However, if you take a gander at Severino’s salary history he peaked at $15 million in his final year with the Yankees.  So if we used that number as a barometer, then a $6 million jump for Severino could be considered a bit unwarranted.  An average season for Severino would be 13-9 with a 3.81 ERA for an expectation of a tick over 9 strikeouts per 9 IP and under 3 walks.  Last season those numbers were 11-7 with fewer strikeouts and more walks with the ERA at 3.91. 

So it would appear in a way that David Stearns has likely signed his first starting pitcher for 2025 as it may be unlikely that Severino would achieve a $21.05 salary level for multiple years from another suitor.  This transaction means the Mets again have a one-year commitment to Severino.  That payroll flexibility for 2026 and beyond is not necessarily a bad thing and the fact he’s a known and familiar face who is reinventing himself could mean he is capable of doing better a second time around.

The other interesting roster maneuver made by Stearns was declining the $7.75 million option for midseason acquisition Phil Maton.  If you peel back the layers he did perform quite well for the Mets during the regular season with a 2.51 ERA but he was simply not helping in the post season.  Given the state of the Mets bullpen they need a lot of help, but apparently the thought is that someone less expensive would surface elsewhere.

The pickups they made for minor and low level major league contracts were interesting but not of the nature of team changing additions.  Still, with 11 free agency vacancies there’s a lot of room on the 40-man roster for David Stearns to address.  What will be interesting to see are not just prospective free agent offers but the heretofore little used avenue of trades to reshape the makeup of the roster.  

For the first time in quite awhile the Mets fans and media are looking forward to this period of the off season with some confidence and positive excitement as a result of the greater than expected success of David Stearns' first season as the Mets POBO.