1/31/25

1-28-25 – Bleacher Report = MLB 2025 Mock Draft 2.0: - Mets First Pick

 


https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/10152297-mlb-2025-mock-draft-20-predictions-for-every-1st-round-pick.amp.html

38. New York Mets: RHP Landon Harmon, East Union HS (MS)


On 12-5-24, MLB.com posted their top 100 prospects in the upcoming draft. Beginning 2-2-25, we will post it in backward order, ending with the pick for 1.1 

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2025/draft/       - 

#49         Landon Harmon

RHP        East Union (MS)

18/years old         6' 5"        190

COMMITTED  -  Mississippi State

Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50

Mississippi has produced just one prep pitcher selected in the top two rounds since the turn of the century: unsigned Dodgers first-rounder J.T. Ginn in 2018. The Magnolia State may have another in Harmon, who combines velocity and projectability better than most high school arms in the 2025 Draft. He can run his fastball to 98 mph with ease and can add a lot more strength to his slender 6-foot-5 frame.

 

Harmon sat at 93-95 mph with his fastball during the showcase circuit, delivering it on a flat approach angle with carry and arm-side run. His breaking ball ranges from the upper 70s to the low 80s and varies between a slurve and a sweeper, showing flashes of becoming a solid slider but lacking consistency. He hasn't had much need or shown much feel for his low-80s changeup.

For a tall teenager, Harmon does a nice job of keeping his delivery in sync and pounding the strike zone, though he'll sometimes rush his mechanics with runners on base. The Mississippi State commit moves well and uses his size to create extension that allows his pitches to get on hitters quickly. He generates premium velocity with athleticism and arm speed rather than effort and could be a frontline starter with continued development of his secondary pitches.

 

1-27-25  -  Just Baseball –

2025 MLB Draft - Top 80 High School Prospects

https://www.justbaseball.com/college/mlb-draft-top-high-school-prep-prospects/  

24. Landon Harmon – RHP

HT/WT: 6’5/188 | Bat/Throw: R/R | School: East Union Attendance Center (MS) | Commitment: Mississippi State | Age: 18.10

One of the biggest risers in this year’s summer circuit, Harmon possesses one of the best fastballs in the entire class.

The heater jumps out of the hand from a wide angle thanks to Harmon’s crossfire and catches hitters by surprise, darting away from righties with slight cutting action and some riding life. He’s already been up to 98 MPH in brief stints, quickly settling into the low/mid-90s across longer outings.

The fastball also possesses extremely loud spin rates, as he’s been clocked in the 2,600 RPM range at times. He has electric arm speed and controls his body well down the mound, allowing him to throw a solid amount of strikes that should improve as he becomes more polished.

Harmon’s sweeper lacks power and can get a bit inconsistent, but it plays best in the low-80s and he can generate up to 15 inches of sweep at its best. The expectation is that Harmon will begin to throw it with more conviction in due time. He’s got a firm mid-80s change-up, as well. Harmon is a key piece in a stout Mississippi State recruiting class.

 

9/22/24 - 2025 Draft - Top 30 Prep Prospects

23. RHP Landon Harmon, East Union Attendance Center (MS)

Height: 6’5

Weight: 188

b/t: R/R

Draft Day Age: 18 YR 10 MO

Commitment: Mississippi State

Hometown: New Albany, MS

One of the biggest risers in this year's summer circuit, Harmon possesses one of the best fastballs in the entire class. The heater jumps out of the hand from a wide angle thanks to Harmon's crossfire and catches hitters by surprise, darting away from righties with slight cutting action and some riding life. He's already been up to 98 MPH in brief stints, quickly settling into the low/mid-90s across longer outings.

He has electric arm speed and controls his body well down the mound, allowing him to throw a solid amount of strikes that should get better as he becomes more polished. His breaking ball has been a bit inconsistent, jumping between an upper-70s slurve and a firmer low-80s slider, but there's upside in the pitch as there's some late depth and sweep when it's on. 

As he develops further, there's a good chance he'll generate a power slider. There is a change-up in there, though it's rarely used. Harmon is currently committed to attending Mississippi State.

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/PlayerProfile.aspx?ID=922913  

2024 National Showcase 

Landon Harmon is a 2025 RHP/OF with a 6-5 188 lb. frame from New Albany, MS who attends East Union Attendance Center. Long and slender build. Has a low effort delivery with a compact arm action to a high 3/4's arm slot. 

Fastball topped out at 96 mph early and settled down at 92-93, has very good command of his fastball to the arm side, high spin fastball characteristics and ended up breaking two bats. Sweeping slider was a good pitch for him, big depth to it up to 16" of IHB, has good feel for the sweeper to both left and right handed hitters. Didn't show a change up. 

Good student, verbal commitment to Mississippi State. Selected to play in the Perfect Game All-American Classic.

Tom Brennan: Should Starters Only Need Four Innings to Qualify for a Win?


This Guy Blew Past 5 Innings Almost Every Start 

Based on baseball’s rules today, if you leave a start trailing 1-0 after 4.2 IP and your team never catches up, losing 9-8 after a stunning rally that fell just short, you absorb the loss.

If you, however, pitch 4.2 IP and leave with a 10 run lead, and your team wins by, say, 8 runs, you cannot pick up the W.  Why?

Gotta get 5 innings in.

Unfair…I’ve said it before, and I will say it again.

In 2024, just two starters in all of MLB won 18 games.  (Warren Spahn won 18 games or more in a season 14 times, by comparison.)

No one won 19 in 2024. No one won 20 or more.

Just 45 starters in all of baseball in fact had 11 or more wins.

Reese noted this - Dylan Cease had a solid year, but won “just” 14 games. 

His high water mark in victories is just 14.”

But…those 14 wins were good for 12th best in baseball amongst MLB starters in 2024. 

So…looked at another way…since he was 12th, at least 18 teams did not have a guy win 14 starts.

Just 3 pitchers had 2 complete games, and just 22 had one. 

MLB Total? 28.

In 1973, Gaylord Perry completed 29 starts; Nolan Ryan? 26.

So…the game for starters has drastically changed. We all know that.

DRASTICALLY.

Heck, Milwaukee relievers in 2024 secured 79 decisions, while the team’s starters garnered just 4 more (83). In 1969, on the other hand, one MLB team’s pen got just 30 decisions, and only one team’s pen got more than 48 decisions. The Mets’ pen in 1969 had 39 decisions, but jumped to 67 in 2024. Starting meant something.

Why not therefore shorten the IP to qualify for a W to 4 IP, instead of 5?

Seriously.

If, as a guess, that 5-to-4-inning change boosted starter decisions per team by an average of 15 a year, that would rebalance starter vs. reliever decisions overall, more towards historical norms.

Thoughts?

Rumors? Not from me today. Happy Friday.


Reese Kaplan -- A Trio of Superior Pitchers for Mets Consideration


So if the season started today, the Mets would offer up a pitching rotation consisting of an injury rehabbed starter Kodai Senga, the comeback kid Sean Manaea, the closer turned opener Clay Holmes, can he do it again David Peterson, and the well traveled but seldom successful Frankie Montas.  Behind them available as plans B, C, D and E would be Tylor Megill, Paul Blackburn, Max Kranick and Griffin Canning. 

What David Stearns has achieved here is quantity, but there are certainly questions about quality.  Even if you assume Manaea found the magic touch last year and is now among the better starters in the league, you still don’t know about the others between health, workload and the out-of-left-field season from Peterson was a one-off performance or has he finally reached his full potential?

As a result, it comes as no surprise to see that the Mets are expressing interest in other starting pitchers.  After all, would anyone other than his family shed tears if the Mets sent a guy like Paul Blackburn over to LaGuardia airport to fly to his new team?

So the names that keep coming up are Max Scherzer, Dylan Cease and Michael King.  Nick Pivetta’s pitching track record and compensation draft pick for signing him pushes him off this top group and Jack Flaherty’s potential attachment to the Mets never got much traction.  Let’s take a brief look.


(Take this whole section with a grain of salt.  Scherzer just signed with Toronto at $15.5 million, very close to my prediction for $15 million)  Everyone who follows the game of baseball thoroughly knows what kind of pitcher Max Scherzer is.  In his long career in both the American and National Leagues he has earned three Cy Young Awards for the Tigers and Nationals while also garnering eight All Star Game appearances.  His career record is 216 and 112, winning more than twice as many games as he has lost.  He’s fanned over 3400 batters in just over 2800 innings.  Yeah, the guy can pitch. 

Unfortunately, the past few seasons have not gone well for the future Cooperstown honoree.  Back in 2021 playing for both the Nationals and Dodgers Scherzer did pitch in 30 games which is just under a full season.  Then in 2022 for the Mets he made it to 23.  In 2023 split between New York and Texas he was in 27.  

Then last season it was just 9 games.  During that 2022 to 2024 interval he has pitched to a combined winning record of 26-15 matching his career ERA of 3.16.  That’s the good news.  

The bad news is that he should have appeared in about 96 games over a three year period.  He made it into about 1/3 less than that.  The strikeout dominance was still there but reducing a bit.

MLB is suggesting that the now 40 year old hurler is worth about $15 million which coincidentally is what his former teammate Justin Verlander agreed to for 2025.  Maybe you can kick it up another $1-$5 million given his slight age advantage but the days of being well over $30 million are behind him.  Right now most sources cite the Blue Jays as the front runners which could parallel them falling out of the Pete Alonso free agent bidding.

While obtaining Scherzer to buttress the OK but not dominant pitching staff only requires more of Steve Cohen’s money, the other Padres pitchers would require both an investment and sacrificing some of the current or future Mets players to make the deals appealing to the spinning-out-of-control Padres ownership. 


Dylan Cease is a starter turning age 29 who has put up solid if not eye popping numbers during his relatively brief career.  His aggregate stats include a 57-46 record with a 3.75 ERA and an impressive 1016 Ks in 847 IP.  Between the Padres and White Sox he’s finished in the top 4 in Cy Young voting twice.  

His high water mark in victories is just 14.  Last season was one of the two times he reached that total with a better 3.47 ERA and a much improved WHIP.  Given he was earning just $8 million that’s very appealing.  Since he will hit free agency at year’s end it is understandable that San Diego might put him on the block.


His teammate Michael King may be even more appealing.  He’s another reliever turned starter who went from the Bronx to the Pads.  In his first year as a frontline starting pitcher he was in 30 games, going 13-9 with a 2.95 ERA.  

His strikeout numbers are not quite as formidable as Cease’s effort, but he still fanned more than 1 per inning pitched.  This one year older pitcher with just a single season as a starter under his belt earned just $3.15 million in 2024 and will also become a free agent in 2026. 

Either of the two Padres pitchers would vault to near the top of the Mets rotation, though it would likely cost less to acquire King than Cease due to his limited starting history and the fact he’s a year older.  For the Mets he has big city experience having played most of his career in New York for the Yankees and his salary level certainly would make the front office happy. 

Any of these three pitchers would be welcome, but I think they are presented in reverse order of their potential appeal as guaranteed one-year solutions for the Mets.

1/30/25

MACK - My Spin on the Pete Fiasco

 

                                        (PC - Ed Delany)


Good morning.

Yeah I know... I wasn't going to write any longer on the Pete Alonso, Scott Boras, Steve Cohen, David Stearns do-si-do that still is going on.

First of all, I have no idea what is really going on here. All I can write about is my spin and a ton of speculation. I have never met any of the four parties involved here, but I have had a extended X relationship with Steve.

We have never discussed this matter and I would never ask him what was going on here, but I have developed a sense on what makes him tick. It is my guess that he shares one (and maybe only one) thing with our President... a desire for loyalty from those around him. I have watched how he publically reacted to that asshole that used to pitch for the Dodgers and now lives in Japan. The dude reneged on a handshake and Steve went public with his disdain. He then went batzo when Steven Matz went elsewhere. Loyalty and keeping one’s word seems high on Cohen's list.

We all know he and Pete had a close relationship. Almost father-like. How do you think he feels when his "son" continues to not sign, call, text, or even send up smoke to the team that scouted him, drafted him, trained him, and believed in him for his entire career?

Listen, I've seen a lot of teams trade their superstars, as well as watching other superstars walk away from their original team. Forget Tom Seaver. If Babe Ruth could be traded, anyone could.

Do I think he will come back? 

Maybe if the best offer out there is the current one from the Mets.

Is there still a current offer on the table from the Mets?  Reports this week say the Mets and the Pete camp are back on the phone.

Good question.

Has Steve Cohen had enough of all this? 

Well, if he hasn't, I think it is coming to an end soon.

But what is totally obvious to me is Boras has failed this off-season, just like he did the season before.

Baseball teams have almost had enough of this blowfart and it's only a matter of time players will catch on too.



Tom Brennan: First Pitch, and Two Strike, Swinging Results, By Team, Including Your Metsies)

 YOU CANNOT WHIFF IF YOUR PLATE APPEARANCE ENDS ON THE 1ST PITCH

I raised the issue of swinging more at first strikes, as it seemed to be really helpful to do just that in 2024 for Oakland’s Brent Rooker, while swinging at far fewer firsties seemingly was hurtful for Brett Baty.  

Maybe it would help the Mets to swing at more first pitches. 

Let’s see the 2024 results…

The Mets remarkably were 4th overall in RBIs in ABs ending on first pitches, with 145 RBIs. 

But they were just 23rd in the total number of at bats ending on the first pitches, with just 638. 

Houston had the most, with 887, a remarkable 249 AB incremental difference, and 39% more than your  compiled.

In plate appearances ending on pitch #1, the Metsies hit.344/.364/.527.

Which is pretty good, huh?

 - SeeRelevant Stats

The median team (ending their ABs on a first-pitch, zero strike count) hit a robust .335.

On plate appearances ending on a dreaded 2 strike count, however, the Mets had the 8th most such at bats, with 3013 (55% of their 5,505 total ABs). 

Houston had just 2,706 at bats ending with 2 strike counts on the final pitch. 

On those 2 strike at bats, the Mets hit just .176/.257/.279.  Yuk.

That .176 average, though bad, was relatively good, however, being the 8th best of all 30 teams. 

Seattle brought up the two-strike bottom, at a horrific .142. That is for a WHOLE SEASON, once their strike count was 0-2, 1-2, 2-2, or 3-2. Awful.

Obviously, the Mets’ slash line on ABs ending on zero strikes far exceeds that of their far more frequent ABs ending on 2 strikes.

It seems obvious to me that more at bats ending on zero strikes (first pitches) counts, and fewer on 2 strike counts, would boost the Mets’ offense team slash line.

Of course, the great Juan Soto’s 2025 swinging stats need to be carved out of the Mets’ 2025 team swinging stats. He is the super elite, other hitters are not. Including his ability to awesomely work pitchers let’s you know how the other Mets mortal hitters produce on different counts.

I have sufficient humility to realize I have NOTHING to say to Soto. No hints.  

Other than to win the 2025 MVP award - we’d all love a Mets hitter finally winning an MVP award in 2025, in their 64th season.

 - SeeEven More Relevant Stats

Thoughts? I’ll bet you have a few, which I hope you’ll want to mention. After all, I’ve stated my case, of that I am quite certain.


Speaking of whiffers…

The Mets have a guy who Baseball Ref and Fangraphs both target to have a low slash line of approximately .210/.270/.390, a very high mid 30’s % K rate, with good pop, and a great glove?

Who? 

Jose Siri.

So…if you can tolerate some frustrating offense, he should be a reasonable producer due to THAT GLOVE.  You just might want to change the channels when he comes to the plate.


WITH STANEK, IS THE PEN COMPLETE?




Saw this picture on Facebook. 

One picture is worth a thousand strikes.

Is it enough for a highly functioning bull pen core, supplemented by other guys already on the 40 man or in the minors?

I think so.

1/29/25

Open Thread - Should the Mets Pursue…Jack Flaherty?

 

“WHO IS GONNA GET JUAN?”

That was our last “open thread” question…

…and we got the answer to that one. 

Now…what about JACK?

13-7, 3.17 ERA, 194 Ks in 2024.

55-41, 3.63 ERA career.

29 years old. Former first rounder.

Quiet market so far for young Jack.

Go after him for a one year deal, plus options?

Can never have too much pitching, right?

Thoughts?


Reese Kaplan -- Mets Offseason Roster Bullet List Number Nine

Mack's Mets will summarize players mentioned as possible new members of the team available via trade or free agency that have popped up in the media associated with them as a part of the 40 man roster.  These bullet points are not necessarily factual as if they were leaked from the Mets front office.  They comprise opinions, rumors and hypotheticals that various Mets beat writers and bloggers have felt necessary to put out into public notice.  Like EPA gas mileage ratings, take the news with a grain of salt.  We share but don’t necessarily endorse any of these transactions.

The Pete Alonso Adventures Continue...

Jesse Winker has indicated he is comfortable playing 1st base and would move over to that position if the manager or front office felt he would be better served there than as a spare outfielder or part time DH.  He had played there back in 2023 during injury rehabilitation and said he enjoyed the position, feeling comfortable there.

A repeat of a silly overpay for Vlad Guerrero, Jr. resurfaced with the Mets being expected to give up Mark Vientos, Jett Williams, Ronny Mauricio and Starling Marte.  The ridiculousness of this proposal is that it includes a one-year rental of a free agent in 2026.  It would seem much more sensible simply to wait.

Jim Duquette citing a source said that the Toronto Blue Jays felt they addressed their need for raw power through the addition of Anthony Santander and consequently are no longer interested in signing Pete Alonso.  They instead want to work more intensely on an extended contract for free agent to be Vlad Guerrero, Jr.  While that evaluation makes sense it seems to run contrary to what has been done with regard to Guerrero up until this point.  Then again, the Mets were fully expected to extend and retain Alonso which now appears not to be happening.

The contract offers that have passed back and forth between the Mets and the Alonso camp include difference in money and in opt-out clauses.  Ideally Alonso would want to make the choice to stay or go after each season but he wants more than three seasons at a higher AAV.  No progress nor departure has happened.

Three additional teams have been rumored to be landing spots if the Mets/Alonso reunion never happens.  One is Buster Posey’s San Francisco Giants who would insert Alonso at first base as part of a splash in the former All Star player’s desire to remake the team under his leadership.  They have been good at setting up option laden contracts that help preserve flexibility for the player choosing his new employer. 

The somewhat surprising revelation was the Seattle Mariners who were generally not known to be interested in expanding payroll.  In fact, there have been a great many stories about reducing it by trading away expensive but solid starting pitcher Luis Castillo.

As perhaps the most farcically appropriate landing spot, a story arose that the Los Angeles Angels are now talking about trying to land Alonso on a four year $100 million contract with multiple opt outs.  Given the recent injury history of Mike Trout, the club could use another powerful bat alongside of him or to act as a reinforcement if the multi All Star misses a significant amount of time yet again.  Arte Moreno has a reputation as one of the game’s least liked team owner, so losing him to the folks in Anaheim might just be the perfect conclusion to this never ending saga.  Truthfully, the key here would be the 4th contract year and the AAV is slightly higher than what is offered by the Mets.  That deal would certainly be closer to what Alonso has been seeking though still less than he would have gotten if he’d signed the original extension offer he declined.

If indeed the Alonso era is over and there’s no prospective arrival of Vlad Guerrero, Jr., there are some Japanese free agents becoming available in the 2025/2026 off season.  The first is named Munetaka Murakami.  The very young slugger is a deplorable third baseman but has also played some first base and scouts feel his future in the MLB is there or as a DH.  At just age 22 he put together a monster season, hitting .318 with 56 HRs.  He struck out and walked at about 20% rates for each.  Unfortunately his batting average and power display have declined as NPB is experiencing a long ball slowdown akin to a deadball era, but everyone pretty much agrees he is a consistent 30 HR or more threat annually.   As a free agent he would be age 26.

The other intriguing prospect is named Kazuma Okamoto.  He’s a little bit older, but has put together 6 straight seasons of 30 or more home runs before falling just short this past year with 27 while hitting .280.  He has always been among the league’s top hitters in OPS and slugging, finishing second in aggregate total homers to Murakami who had that one non-duplicated year with 56.  He strikes out very little which is unusual for a power hitter and keeps his batting average up where he could play nicely in the middle of the lineup.  He will be age 30 when available at the same time as Murakami. 

At the Amazing Mets day this past week manager Carlos Mendoza reiterated that the pair of third baseman, Mark Vientos and Brett Baty, will be working out at first base to see possible fit for the position in an Alonso absence.  Somewhat surprisingly he also cited minor leaguer Joey Meneses and Jared Young as possibilities to contend for a starting role at Alonso’s former corner as well.  Since both are not on the 40-man roster the probability of either gaining more than a bench role is fairly slim.

With the Mets allegedly no longer showing any interest in free agent Alex Bregman, the other notable third baseman available came to the surface once again.  Nolan Arenado is most definitely on the trading block, particularly after a power deficient 2024 season.  They want prospects and the Mets farm system has many available to whet the Cardinals’ appetite.  The issue at hand is the nearly $25 million per season due to the player for the next three years.  Compared to Alonso, obviously you get Gold Glove defense from Arenado, but the run production numbers would be down and he would cost more money plus players. Unless the players included were outside the top ten or if the Cardinals would absorb an expiring contract like Starling Marte it wouldn’t seem to make a lot of sense.

While obviously most baseball writing concerns acquiring Guerrero to replace Alonso, two other names surfaced this week in multiple places.  Former first round pick Spencer Torkelson may be out of a job in Detroit with other roster additions having them shuffle players around the field.  The strong defender did put together a 2023 season that included 31 HRs and 93 RBIs with a modest .233 average.  He obviously can hit the long ball but more in the all-or-nothing mold of Dave Kingman.  He’d cost next to nothing, not even yet eligible for arbitration and would play 2025 at 25 years of age.  One prospective package offered up would include Kevin Parada and Colin  Houch.  If that was the price, it might be worth at least opening up several evaluation tools to determine if the potential good from Torkelson is valuable.

The other first baseman who appeared in a few places was the Baltimore Orioles’ Ryan Mountcastle.  He has played both first base and left field for his current employer.  Back in 2021 as a rookie he hit 31 HRs and drove in 89 while batting .255.  The power has never fully returned since then with Mountcastle accumulating totals in 2022, 2023 and 2024 of 22, 18 and 13 in each of those years.  He’s a .265 hitter which is an improvement but not enough to be batting as protection for Juan Soto.  He is turning age 28 for the upcoming season and earns just over $4 million. 

In the Non-Alonso Rumors...

Remember Max Scherzer?  Well, he didn’t lead the Mets to the promised land his last time around but his pitching overall was pretty much what you’d come to expect from him.  He is now hitting 40 but still wanting to pitch.  Chances are with the amount of time he’s missed lately due to injuries and his less than Scherzer-like results when available, he’s likely getting a single year deal with a team option for a second year.  It will be at a greatly reduced rate but still likely north of $20 million.  Several places cited the Mets showing interest in a possible reunion.

Once again a story arose about trying to pry loose closer David Bednar from the Pirates after a down year when his price would be depressed.  With a career ERA of 3.36 after a horrific 2024 when he tallied 5.77 over 63 games, he’s likely suitable for a setup role for the 8th inning and an emergency closer should Diaz get hurt or suspended again.  Right now he’s earning just over just under $6 million as he’s still only arbitration eligible.  The big man would cost some player personnel to obtain him.  The proposed deal would send Brett Baty and a paid-down Starling Marte to return home towards the end of his career.  Pretty much any Mets fan would sign off on that deal but would Pittsburgh?

Speaking of Marte, his name came up in a pair of prospective deals.  On an even-up or slightly paid down contract the Mets could send Starling Marte to the Giants for lefty reliever Taylor Rogers who is set to earn $13.5 million.  The alternative that surfaced was a more-or-less dollar even deal sending Hunter Harvey and Hunter Renfroe to the Mets for Starling Marte. 

Another player in the middle of a pricey contract is Jeff McNeil.  While the Mets have middle infielders in abundance from their farm system, the crosstown rival Yankees do not.  Would they want to take him on for the final two years of his deal?

Former Met reliever Ryne Stanek hit the Mets rumors this week as well, but also was apparently on the radar of the Cubs and the Braves, too.

Reliever Danny Coulombe is someone who might be a bargain having had injury issues in two of the past three years.  The veteran southpaw has been surprisingly effective since turning 30.  Before that were some ups and downs resulting in a career 3.52 ERA which is respectable but not stunning.  However, from 2020 through 2024 that number drops to 2.69 with better than a strikeout per inning pitched and a WHIP of just 1.074.  Yes, he’s worth considering as he enters his age 35 season.  His last paycheck was just $2.3 million.

There were numerous rumors about Nick Pivetta and Jack Flaherty being starting pitcher additions to the staff with Flaherty being likely the more attractive as there is no QO minor league compensation necessary to sign him.  Also he’s a 3.63 career ERA pitcher vs. 4.14 for Pivetta.  Flaherty earned $14 million for the Tigers and Dodgers last year finishing 2024 with a terrific 3.17 ERA.  He’ll be getting a big raise.

Reliever Tim Hill’s name once again arose as a second left option for the Mets bullpen.  Watching video of his odd release point which is characterized as 3/4 but more often resembles submarine, it’s easy to see why players constantly drive his pitches into the ground which is helpful when a double play is needed.  For the Yankees last season he appeared in 35 games with a 2.05 ERA.  He doesn’t strike out many batters, but he also doesn’t require a big paycheck.  He earned just $1.8 million last year and is turning 35.

A general “The Mets can add to the bullpen” article cited the availability of some pitchers already mentioned as well as Carlos Estevez, Dylan Floro, Jakob Junis, Phil Maton and David Robertson.

One final amusing podcast this week offered up a one-for-one trade of Brandon Sproat for Vlad Guerrero, Jr.  It was presented as a rental and as one in which, like the long ago Johan Santana trade, the Mets had an opportunity to negotiate a long term deal with he first baseman.  I can’t see the Blue Jays doing that, but then again they lose him for a draft pick next year.  

1/28/25

Ernest Dove on YouTube: Mets Minor League Camp Report


Mets Prospect Guru, Ernest Dove, talks about the recent Mets Mini Minor League Camp.  

For more of Ernest's wisdom and lots of great Mets Prospect Videos subscribe to Ernest's YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@ernestdove.

You can watch on YouTube or below.




SAVAGE VIEWS – Mind Games

 

Every year baseball teams draft hundreds of prospects with many of the top draftees never making the grade while lower level prospects such as Jacob deGrom and Spencer Strider end up excelling well beyond expectations. Clearly these two were uber talented players who excelled through hard work, mental toughness and perseverance.


We’ve seen it with players such as Jett Williams and Jose Altuve who through hard work and mental acuity have been able to overcome adversity. On the other hand, individuals such as Kevin Parada, once thought of highly, may never reach their potential.


It’s clear that players not only need to have talent but also other trails in order to be successful. For example, having a positive attitude is important as well as being highly motivated, setting high but realistic goals, being a good teammate and clubhouse presence, and being able to manage emotions effectively.  Think about the positive influence Jose Iglesias and his OMG signs had on the team. I don’t think they make the playoffs without Iglesias.


Take a look at some of the players whose careers were derailed due to severe mental issues.


Steve Blass was a Pirates pitcher on a Hall of Fame trajectory when he reached his 30th birthday. Unfortunately, things took a turn for the worst when he lost his ability to throw strikes, 


Remember Mackey Sasser, a catcher for the Mets, who found throwing the ball back to the pitcher a major challenge. 


Steve Sax, played for the Yankees, and was unable to make routine throws. 


And who could forget Rick Ankiel, who was an excellent Left-Hand pitcher for the Cards until he could no longer find the strike zone. He was able to revive his career as a power hitting outfielder.


The current Mets roster contains several players who continue to underperform in key spots. Jeff McNeil is the first name that comes to mind. Once he loses his confidence, it takes a while before he gets it back.


Our favorite Polar Bear was mostly ineffective last year in clutch situations.


Brett Baty is another one whose seems to be in a mental fog. Look at the path Brent Rooker took before he achieved success. There’s hope for Baty yet.


Smart teams should be investing more resources in Sports Psychology. Too many players failed to achieve their potential due to mental issues. More and more players are leaving the sport too early due to their inability to handle the stresses that come with a long and very often frustrating season. I’m sure most players find the daily grind tough to handle. On top of that, many Latin players have personal issues that can impact their on-field performance.


With so much money being invested in player development, it makes sense for a sports psychologist to be an important member of the staff.


Ray

January 28, 2025

Remember 1969: Remember's Ramblings

 

Remember's Ramblings – Volume 2, Article 5

January 28, 2025

 


Line-up Construction

 

 

It was a couple days ago in Mack’s Sunday Observation post that the first rumblings of ‘who is hitting where’ arrived.   After a lot of weeks of Who’s on First, etc. we are close enough to spring to start thinking about the line-up with the players that are currently on the roster.

I think it was Ray that first suggested that Mark Vientos hit in front of Juan Soto.  Then Adam returned with a lineup with Vientos following Lindor and Soto followed by the lefty Jesse Winker in the clean-up spot (against a right handed starter). 

I started to write out a comment, but it got bigger than I wanted so I thought I’d write it up as my Tuesday morning piece to generate further thought. 

A few things that immediately came to mind:

(1)    Francisco Lindor is the lead-off hitter.   He settled in there last year and there is no reason to change what worked. 

(2)   Juan Soto hit exclusively in the #2 hole in 2024.   He had some guy named Judge hitting behind him. 

(3)   At this point, the Mets biggest home run threat for the last 6 years is still out there someplace and won’t be part of this discussion.        

So, is Soto a #2 hitter and that is that?    The answer is no.  According to Baseball Reference, prior to 2024 he had roughly 400 more career plate appearances hitting third than he did hitting second.    AND his career batting average, OBP, slugging and OPS are considerably higher in the 3 spot than the 2 spot.     In addition, his homerun, RBI, and walk rates are all better hitting just in front of the clean-up hitter. 

So that convinced me that he was a perfect #3 hitter.   But wait. With his .400+ annual on base percentage, wouldn’t you want him getting up sooner at least once a game?    If he hits second and gets on base, they are guaranteed a base runner with less than two outs.    Would that skill be somewhat wasted hitting in the three hole where it is possible there are already two outs before he gets up?    

Now it is time to look past just where Soto will hit.   Who else will fill those slots most effectively? 

The common view is that Vientos will biggest power bat going forward.   That might sound like a clean-up hitter.

Brandon Nimmo has always been a high OBP guy that has hit at the top of the line-up to use those on base skills.

Looking at Vientos line-up splits, he actually hit in the clean-up spot only 3 times in 2024 – there was some guy named Alonso that posted up every day.   And in Vientos’s extremely small sample size hitting 4th, his OPS was an underwhelming .276, which was less than his batting average alone while hitting in the 5th spot.    His  strongest statistical batting order position was actually 7th last year, but in a smaller sample size than hitting 5th.    

Both Nimmo and Lindor show the lead-off spot as their best hitting position, and both by quite a lot.   Unfortunately, Nimmo’s numbers drop quite significantly in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th position, but with many fewer at bats.    His best position is actually batting 6th, but again, with only 122 career plate appearances, compared to his 2537 as a leadoff batter. 

A couple other things to consider is the right-left set up and the team speed.   It seems a little unfortunate that neither of these provides a natural solution.    The do not have a lot of team speed (or even good baserunners), and tend to be pretty left-handed leaning. Ideally an alternating hitting batting order would be in order with some speed at the top.    Vientos may provide the righty bat to hit between Lindor and Soto, but he does not have the speed or baserunning skill in order be an optimal #2 hitter.   In fact, his career XBT, or Extra Base Taken % is more than 14 points lower than the league average.      StarlingMarte would be a better option when he plays, although without other injuries (Nimmo?), it is hard to see him getting regular at-bats.  

So with all this said, against a right handed starter, I guess I would stack the top of the line-up with lefties:

(1)   Lindor

(2)   Nimmo

(3)   Soto

(4)   Vientos

(5)   McNeil

(6)   Alvarez

(7)   Winker

(8)   Baty (who else is going to play first?)

(9)   Taylor or Siri

This gives them their best OBP guys, thus their best chance of scoring more runs, especially in the first inning which is where they fell short last year.  

And on the down side, it exposes them against the lefty bullpens, but ..

Against a lefty, Marte would slot into the (2) position and Nimmo drops down, although Nimmo is actually a pretty good hitter against lefties.    

There doesn’t seem to be much of a set line-up any longer, especially on the Mets team, but I fully expect Lindor to hit leadoff and Soto third.    There is a lot of hope that Vientos and Alvarez continue their improvement.   

Of course, some or much of this becomes moot if they make other roster moves between now and opening day.  

Thoughts?  Comment below!

 

Remember’s Reminiscing:   January 28 Birthdays

 

The only birthday to celebrate today is that of Tsuyoshi Shinjo who turns 53.     I just looked for some fun facts about Tsuyoshi, and found that there weren’t many.   He did have exactly 100 RBI in his career.    And I had forgotten that he actually came back to the Mets for a second stint as a free agent after being traded to the Giants and playing for SF for a year.   Unfortunately, the second go-around did not go well, finishing 2003 with only 124 plate appearances , a .193 BA, and a weak .483 OPS.   Somehow pulled 0.2 WAR from those awful numbers.   A closer look shows -0.8 WAR for offense and +1.0 WAR for his defense.    OK, that was the fun fact:   Shinjo was a terrific center fielder.  Happy Birthday!

1/27/25

Tom Brennan - Pete Alonso vs. Keith Hernandez


K.H. - MY FAVORITE METS FIRST BASEMAN

To the casual fan, Pete Alonso 

1) hits a lot of HRs, 

2) hits breathtaking HRs, and 

3) drives in runs.

So….”SIGN HIM!” Afterall, the casual fan loves Home Run Derby.

However, Mr. Alonso also has several warning signs:

a) in his first 3 full MLB seasons, he hit over .260, but his last two seasons? .229.

b) he fanned just 128 times in 2022, but 172 times in 2024, a serious 33% slippage.  And his K rate even slid a bit in the second half of 2024, as opposed to the first half.

c) he is turning 30, with what could already be early onset downward spiral.

d) try as he might, his fielding on the best of days is average at best.

e) he has little speed.

F) the high home run rate masks a low doubles rate of 27 per 162 games.

g) in his career, he hits .222 with 2 outs and runners in scoring position.

h) In his career, he hits 205 in late and close situations.

I) he accumulated just 2.6 wins above Replacement in 2024 despite playing every game.

J) he has averaged 3.9 wins above Replacement in the five full seasons he’s played in the major league. But declining - just 2.9 WAR  on average over the last 2 seasons (3.2, 2.6).

In other words, there are quite a few potential pitfalls with signing Pete to anything resembling long-term.

NOW….

Let’s compare Pete to a former Mets player who rather inexplicably is not in the Hall of Fame, Keith Hernandez. Pete came in to the majors like a ball of fire in 2019, hitting 53 homers at age 24. Keith Hernandez on the other hand, started playing in the majors much younger, at 20 and 21 years of age, with just 248 plate appearances spanning those two seasons.

In his last two career seasons, he was a broken shell of his former self. Aged out early. Negative WAR.

However in his 12 full years between those two extremes, he compiled 58.6 WAR, or 4.9 per year.  He was a career .296 hitter, with a .384 OBP. Take out the last two broken down years and he hit roughly .300 with .390 OBP for his career.

Which is pretty darned excellent.

He had on average nearly 10 more doubles and triples per season than Pete, somewhat offsetting the HR disparity, and Keith showed absolutely no deterioration at age 29, nor during his age 30-33 seasons.

Glove? He was arguably the BEST defensive first baseman ever. 

He also averaged 14 steals a year in a 5 year span in his 20s. 

And how clutch was he? Very.

He had a .405 career OBP with 2 outs and RISP, and hit .294 in “late and lose” situations. He was just SO TOUGH when games were on the line. He RELISHED those battles.  Recall how many times you saw him take “ball 4” in the middle of a rally, on a 3-2 count on a pitch just one or two inches out of the strike zone. What an eye.  He struck out roughly half as much as Pete.

Pete was likely hoping for Babe Ruth money (inflation adjusted).

He doesn’t, it seems, even deserve Keith Hernandez $$.

Pete should have signed that extension.

When he had the chance.

Instead, he’s upset the owner. Who signs the checks. And…

Who knows it is not about HR Derby.