Tom Brennan: How Ready Are the Mets' Prospects Actually? Speed Burner Keith Hernandez

The Aspiring Duo: Luisangel and Jett

Usually, when a prospect is ready, it is self-evident.  

You're not hoping...you're not rationalizing...

You're salivating.  Drooling, even.

Let's consider these 13 mostly-drool-producing former Mets prospects who became (for a long while or a short while) Mets stars:

Darryl Strawberry - #1 overall pick in 1981.  In 1982, he had 34 HRs and 97 RBIs in AA, and then hit .333/.465/.597 in 16 AAA games in early 1983. He was clearly READY.  He promptly smoked 26 HRs and drove in 74 runs in 122 games after his call up and won Rookie of the Year.

Doc Gooden - 1st round, 5th overall in 1982.  He was a mind-blowing 19-4, 2.50 with 300 Ks in 1983 at age 18.  He won Rookie of the Year at age 19 in 1984, stunning the baseball world by going 17-9 with 276 Ks in 218 IP. 

Edgardo Alfonso - in 1994 in AA, he hit .293 with 51 XBHs in 127 games. In 1995, as a Met, he hit .278 with 4 HRs in 101 games. He had incredible back to back seasons in 1999 and 2000, hitting .312 with 81 doubles and 52 HRs, as he gradually added power. 

David Wright - a first rounder (38th overall) in 2001, he raked in AA and AAA in 2004 for 91 games as Mets fans drooled, and he hit .293/.332/.525 in 69 Mets games after his mid-season call up.

Jake deGrom - drafted in the 9th round as a pitcher/SS, he along with Jeff McNeil defied the odds.  A good career choice was made to pursue pitching, not shortstop. It took Jake a while to learn his craft, but in 2014, he went 4-0, 2.58 in 7 AAA starts, with just 29 Ks in 38 innings, but looking like domination was around the corner.  It was, as he went 9-6, 2.69 in 22 post-call up starts and won ROY.  We soon learned he was not a finished product, as he won back-to-back Cy Youngs a few years later.

Noah Syndergaard - arriving in the Dickey trade, he, like Wright, was a 38th overall first round pick, in his case in 2010.  He struggled in Vegas in 2014, with a 9-7 record and 4.60, but in 2015, he had a 1.80 ERA in 5 starts in AAA, got the call up, and went 9-7, 3.24 in 24 Mets starts, fanning 166 in 150 innings with searing heat. 

Matt Harvey - drafted 7th overall in 2010, his minor league ERAs in 2011 were decent, but upon his call up in mid-2012, he went 7-5, 3.68 and then dazzled in 2013 (like a young Max Scherzer) until he needed TJS.

Steve Matz - a 2009 2nd rounder out of my neighborhood at the time in Long Island, he needed TJS out of the gate and then needed development time, but came up in mid 2015 to go 4-0, 2.27.  In 2016, he started out 7-1 and looked like a budding MLB lefty star, but it hasn't gone great for him since. 

Dominic Smith - drafted 11th overall in 2013 at 185 pounds, he developed weight and sleep apnea issues and hit poorly when called up in 2017 after hitting .220 in hitters' paradise Las Vegas in the first half of 2017.  He addressed both of those issues and hit very well in 2019 and 2020, only to slide back into mediocrity with the bat. 

Michael Conforto - drafted 10th overall in 2014, he developed quickly and hit well in 2015 in A and AA, getting called up in mid-2015 and helping spark the Mets' WS run by hitting .270 in 56 games.  His career after that has been decent but with too many mediocre stretches.

Brandon Nimmo - drafted 13th overall in 2011, many saw that pick as another Mets drafting mistake, but the kid from Wyoming proved the skeptics wrong.  He struggled in 2011-13, in part due to injuries, picked it up in 2014, then tore it up in Vegas in 2015 hitting .352, and debuted with the Mets in late 2016, hitting .274.  He really clicked in the majors in 2018.

Pete Alonso - a 64th overall pick in 2016, due to his perceived lack of fielding ability, he worked his butt off.  Despite a broken hand bone from HBP in both his post-draft debut season and early the following season, he played 159 minors and AZ fall games in 2018 and smashed 42 HRs and drove in 146 runs.  He topped that with 53 HRs as a Mets rookie in 2019, winning the ROY and crushing the team's old 41 HR record.  

Jeff McNeil - a 12th round skinny dude with fine .300+ average but no power, he dealt with a hip and a hernia injury that wiped out the better part of 2 minor league seasons.  Undeterred and beefed up in 2018, he tore up the upper minors in 2018, then got called up and hit nearly .330. He then had a tremendous 2019 and later won a batting title.

So we have mostly very high draft picks, but in all cases, most of the guys were hitting or pitching at the time of call up in such a way that we were drooling at the thought of them being called up.

Three other minor league hitters in that span had growing drool potential blocked by tragedy.  

Brian Cole's MLB All Star trajectory was incredibly terminated in a fatal car accident. 

Sean Ratliff, a promising slugger who had an excellent 2010 (.298/.353/.505) in AA, got hit directly in the eye in the batter's circle on a foul ball and lost sight in the eye. 

And Reese Havens, drafted 22nd overall in 2008, was sizzling in Binghamton in early 2010 (9 HRs in 32 games, .312, but then developed thoracic issues which led to surgical removal of a rib, but he hardly played after that and never really recovered.  

With that as a backdrop, how did Mets' current day prospects heading into 2024 compare?

In 2024, I was drooling in anticipation for only one minor leaguer, Brandon Sproat, who fanned an incredible 11 straight hitters in his last AA game, but then my drool dried up as he scuffled in AAA late in te season.  Any chance of a call up in 2024 for him faltered.  Like Syndergaard and Jake after their scuffles the year before their call up, I expect Sproat to catapult upwards in 2025 and do some fine pitching for the Mets.

Due to injuries and/pr unimpressive performances when able to play, the progress of Drew Gilbert, Jett Williams, Jacob Reimer, Kevin Parada and Alex Ramirez had no one drooling, except perhaps for their pet canine. Each one needs a huge output upgrade in 2025 to be considered for a call up.  Mauricio needs to reestablish himself after missing 2024 with his knee injury.

Luisangel Acuna had a healthy and solid AAA season and was not going to be called up….until Lindor got hurt. Acuna playedseveral key games, and the Mets likely don’t make the playoffs without his flash of late September brilliance.

On the mound…

Mike Vasil (now gone), Dom Hamel, and Blade Tidwell all face-planted on the AAA pitchers' mound in 2024 and had no one speculating about their near-term call up.  Jonah Tong was great in 2024 in the low-to-mid minors, and will be fascinating to watch in 2025, but as well as he pitched in 2024, he was not ready for the bigs last year. 

So, to answer the title line's question, 2024's prospects were not nearly ready, dashing my high hopes in that regard.  They were a collective case of not putting your eggs in one basket, because most might get cracked.

Don't drool until you see the whites of their stats.

Hopefully, the drool starts flowing for all of them in 2025.

KEITH HERNANDEZ…BASE STEALING THREAT??? 

And let's not forget CLUTCH!

Keith Hernandez never looked like a speed burner…but in 5 Cardinals seasons, 1978-1982, he swiped 69 bases.  

So, not only was he Platinum Glove Keith, and Super Clutch Hitter Keith….he was Speed Burner Keith.

Keith also was clutch.  For many seasons, his game winning RBI total in a season (24) was a Mets record.

He also ranked high in an obscure stat, defined as follows:

“REW (run expectancy wins): REW is the same as RE24, except it has been converted to a wins scale. +WPA (win advancement): The amount of positive wins a player contributed to his team, including only the plays where he increased his team's win expectancy.”

Strawberry had the Mets’ highest ever in a season at 6.9.  Keith was tied with Darryl (in another season) at 5th (5.1) and also was 15th best one season. Alonso’s best two seasons were 18th  at 4.1 and 27th, at 3.7.

I am still confused about this stat, but relatively, it means, it appears, that Keith was more clutch than Pete, and Darryl more than them both 

TRANSACTIONS TO DATE

Both major and minor league deals, the Mets signed 10 players in November, 15 more in December, and....none so far in January. (OK, two minor league signings late on Jan 8, per Mike Mayer).

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/transactiontracker

Slow January so far.  Time to break out that signing quill again.  

Tan ink for Tanner Scott would be nice.