Rome wasn’t built in a day...
The season is not starting tomorrow...
Have patience and have faith...
All of these cliches are being repeated by everyone who has long term confidence in the job David Stearns and Steve Cohen are doing preparing for the upcoming 2025 season which begins in Spring Training in just 5 weeks. They point out that after the horrific start the Mets came within two games of making it to the World Series. They extol the virtues of what Sean Manaea, Mark Vientos and Francisco Lindor did to get them there.
Absent from these happy recollections are the fact that Pete Alonso, Jose Iglesias, Harrison Bader, J.D. Martinez, Jesse Winker, Jose Quintana, Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton, Luis Severino and many others are no longer there. Also missing are the justifications for the substandard performance by players who are, including Francisco Alvarez, Jeff McNeil, Tyrone Taylor whose output with the bat is not what you need to compete into October.
Then there are the pitching acquisitions made thus far. In its own weird way the return of Sean Manaea and the addition of reliever-turned-starter Clay Holmes is supposed to mirror what worked with Manaea and Severino in 2024. You still have David Peterson coming back and hopefully this season represents a full year of Kodai Senga who pitched like an ace in 2023 before injuries hit. The fifth member of this rotation is career mediocrity Frankie Montas whose experience pitching in New York is not by itself enough to warrant what he’s being paid to be a career 4.09 ERA hurler.
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So as you slice it right now the club has five starting pitchers who are etched in stone. Then comes the sixth starter conversation and you hear a lot more about depth than you do about quality. Tylor Megill never had the breakout kind of season like Peterson did last year. Paul Blackburn is still in injury recovery mode and has mediocre numbers for his entire career. Minus the injury the same can be said about the pitching talent of Griffin Canning. Jose Butto has pitched quite well out of the pen and likely would outdo the starting pitching of any of trio of wannabe starters, but then you would further sabotage an already shaky bullpen by removing one of its most solid arms.
It was indeed good news when the story broke that the Mets had a conversation with Tanner Scott who would provide them what they envisioned back in 2023 with David Robertson setting up Edwin Diaz. Of course, that never happened. The other issue with Scott is whether he would gladly accept a bigger paycheck but forego the actual Saves stat with Diaz still considered the 9th inning closer. David Robertson made a very nice career for himself while not being counted on as the primary closer. Some relievers would rather start. We don’t know what Scott’s long term plans in the game are all about. Would the Mets use a two-headed lefty/righty closing tandem?
There are other strong bullpen arm options still out there like the aforementioned Robertson, Kirby Yates, Kenley Jansen, Jeff Hoffman, A.J. Minter and folks who might thrive in an 8th inning role. What we’re not hearing is the Mets making noise about any of them.
Tomorrow let’s look at the offense and see how the current roster needs some major reinforcement.
10 comments:
I'll throw in another phrase--- "It's better to light a candle than curse the darkness".
What were you saying at this time a year ago? Or in late May?
Have you studied David's track record as GM in Milwaukee? Are you seriously thinking that he's done signing/trading for the entire off-season?
IBID!
Bolster the bullpen. I will assume Senga returns OK. He was fine at the end of 2023 but hurt in the spring. The leg thing in July was weird. Forget the rotation, bolster then pen with Scott and another above average arm. The guardians’ pen was 30 wins over break even, the Mets’ pen just 11 over, and the Metssave % was significantly worse than the Guardians’ pen. Bolster the pen.
Amen!, Tom
Everyone has been waiting for the Alonso domino to fall on the position player side, (and a report out this morning says that Boras has come back to the Mets with a 3-year compromise - we shall see). But I think that decisions on the pitching staff are held up a bit by the Sasaki situation. I know that the Mets aren’t the favorites to land him, the ownership squabble in San Diego could hurt their chances, and I’m not sure, if I’m Sasaki, that I necessarily want to try to develop in the insane glare of Ohtani and Yamamoto. With Stearns (wisely, I believe) committed to a 6-man rotation, which leaves just a 7-man bullpen, landing a cheap potential TOR starter will impact everything else. Including likely whether they’re willing to spend big on someone like Tanner Scott. Sasaki could make a decision anytime starting next Wednesday. One way or another, that could be the thing that opens the floodgates, so to speak.
Adam that I think is a good read of the market by you. I also think that Wright saying how much he appreciated being a lifetime Met, and noting the same for Chipper and Jeter, could weigh on Pete's decision. Ultimately, it is Pete's fault, in a sense. He was already around 21 coming out of college, but was a bad fielder. He worked his but off to make up for lost time, and did, despite two broken hands on HBPs (in 2016 and 2017). But he arrived at age 24. Soto hit free agency at 26. Like it or not, Pete is in the 30 year old age range where so many hitters begin a downwards slide, and his Ks jumped 33% over 2022, a real sign.
To beat a dead horse, if I was Pete, I'd sign with the Mets, with opt outs, and swing at more first strikes, which will lower his K rate and perhaps add 20 points to his batting average.
From today's report of Pete proposing a 3-year deal with opt-outs, which is what the Mets proposed, how can the sides still be "not close"?
The team's proposal was said to be for $30 mil AAV. How far above that can he be asking?
I'd guess that Pete signs here for 3/$96-$100mil with two opt-outs (which he will almost certainly never use). An overpay for sure, but for three years, and given his "soft value" to the Mets specifically, I think both Pete and Cohen swallow their misgivings and get it done.
Bill, I know Soto is younger and better, but it has to be tough for Pete, the face of the franchise from 2019 thru 2024, to get 3 years, $90 when he sees Soto get 15/$765. I think he is trying to save face by not rushing, and hoping a white knight comes in at 6/$150. I think eventually he caves.
But when the Yanks lost Soto, they went Plan B. Plan B has to be offset Pete's loss with a KILLER pen.
Tom, I 100% agree with you on Pete needing to be more aggressive. So many AB's last year where he watched a middle-middle fastball for strike one, and you just knew that was the best pitch he was going to see - and ended up chasing down and away for strike 3. Hitting 4th behind Lindor-Soto-Vientos and being more aggressive at the plate should set him up for a 120 RBI season, one would think.
10 days until Sasaki signs. Looking forward to that outcome!
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