MACK - MY Thursday Observations

 

Good morning.

 

We start this morning with one of my favorite subjects… Tylor Megill.

Tylor continued his strong spring season by tossing four strong innings on Tuesday, giving up only two hits and one walk, while striking out five (60 pitches). That makes his current spring stats 6.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 7 K. His fastball has already been up to 98 mph. And his ERA/WHIP stands at 1.35/0.90.

Sometimes, there seems to be around 100 starters this spring trying to make the Mets rotation. The fact is Kodai Senga has a slot until he loses it, David Peterson is a lock, and Clay Holmes couldn’t pitch better than he has since this competition started. In my book, that leaves Megill fighting it out with Griffin Canning for the fifth slot, unless they will go with both under a six-man rotation.

As for Max Kranick, he’s one of my long men in the pen.

Odd man out is Phil Blackburn who really has done very little this spring to make a case for him.

(so then he goes out and throws four freaking perfect innings...)

The good news here is there is nothing wrong with six starters all with an ERA under 2.00.

But…

The true test is when Spring Training goes into the second stage and these pitchers throw against their opponents starting lineup. Megill basically did on Tuesday, which made this outing as special as it is.

 

The other subject I want to take about falls under a “good news/bad news” category.

I know one of my dedicated readers isn’t going to like this.

The good news here is great news… the starting lineup of the 2025 Mets is not only one of the strongest in baseball, but, on paper, seems to guarantee at the least, a playoff spot. But. In my opinion, the bad news is the “second string” on this team seems to have a talent level that would only qualify them as “third string”.

And, adding to misery here is only Brett Baty seems to be both talented and ready to make the jump to the major league level.

There are multiple Top 100 Prospect lists out there that show either three, or, in the case MLB Pipeline put out this week, only two Mets prospects in the Top 100. There are 30 clubs, which means the average amount of prospects per team fall in the range of 3.3. Having only two, plus having the two that are currently recognized as below the AAA level, is, in the words of my wife’s cousin, Joey Bubotz, “not fuckin good”.

My theory is that this problem is shared by teams that spend a ton of money building their primary roster. Many of those teams have had to trade off key prospects to get these power starters and thus limit the growth from within.

Other teams have had limited success in the draft process, and hurting from injuries at that level, or are currently going through a prospect dry spell. The Mets may fall into a combination of these issues.

Don’t get me wrong… Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Alvarez, and Mark Vientos are all successful draft signs. And Baty looks like he will be the fifth bat to currently come out of this process.

(ya know, trading Baty for a starter chip and signing that Candilita guy for two years would have worked well here too,)

But, I’m just sayin…

MetCast                   @MetCastPod

the New York Mets come in as MLB’s number two overall lineup in 2025

Pitch Profiler                      @pitchprofiler

Danny Young showed out in a big way, mixing a heavy sinker with a nasty sweeper and sprinkling in the cutter and slider!

The lefty kept hitters guessing and looked like a real bullpen weapon for the Mets.

There isn’t too much to say about the changeup (CH) honestly

It had 14 IVB / 15.5 HB at 84.7 mph in 2024

In 2025 he’s added more ride and velo while shaving some HB off

It’s not a shape that traditionally sees success, but

@pitchprofiler's model likes it!

Good lord that is a SWEEPER

 

Thomas Nestico                 @TJStats

A.J. Minter made his Mets debut today!

His cutter looked strong but his velocity is not back up to his 2024 levels yet. Minter will be a key piece of the Mets bullpen this season, and he has the stuff to excel!

 

Ben Joyce hit 103.6 MPH today.

Lol

    How many times did I say that the Mets should have drafted him in the first round that year?

The Athletic Mailbag –

Why was Clay Holmes converted to starting pitcher while José Buttó went to the bullpen? What do they see differently in these two? — Alfred P.

Tim: As Will wrote back at the time, the Mets liked what they saw at the end of last season from Holmes when he started throwing a four-seamer and changeup. Combine that with the quality of his sinker and sweeper, and they think he can run through a lineup multiple times. (I don’t think it hurts that the contract for Holmes was reasonable enough that, should the starting thing not pan out, he wouldn’t be especially overpaid as Edwin Díaz’s set-up man.)

There are a few things that stand out with Buttó’s shift to the pen. First, I don’t think the Mets are closed off to him ever starting again. At the start of the offseason, the plan was for Buttó to stretch out and come to camp as a starter, even if it was likely he would end up in the pen. Second, given the shape of their rotation, the Mets are especially eager to have multiple multi-inning relievers in their bullpen — a job Buttó excelled in last year. And third, while Buttó’s primary results as a starter last season were solid, his walk rate was concerning. Only four pitchers who started as many games as Buttó had a higher walk rate than his 13.5 percent last season. You can get by as a reliever walking more than 12 percent of opposing hitters in a way you can’t as a starter.

                            Mathew Brownstein                    @MBrownstein89

Clay Holmes's whiff% on his kick-change this spring is 53.3 percent (15 swings; 8 misses).

The Athletic - Which Mets prospects are poised to break out in 2025? Meet 5 under-the-radar candidates

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6192476/2025/03/11/new-york-mets-breakout-prospects-2025/?onboarded=true  (sub needed)

Eli Serrano, OF

Highest level reached in 2024: Low A

In their first meeting with Serrano after plucking him in the fourth round of last year’s amateur draft, members of the Mets brass asked him why he thought he slipped to them.

Serrano essentially told the group, “I hit the ball on the ground too much, and I’m not strong enough.”

It was the right answer.

Since then, Serrano quickly got to work.

Under the guidance of Mets director of hitting development Jeff Albert and coordinators Kevin Mahala and Daniel Nicolaisen, Serrano retooled his swing. In a recent minors scrimmage, Serrano pulled a fastball for a home run with an exit velocity of 105 mph.

When the Mets drafted him, Serrano weighed 190 pounds. He now weighs 209 pounds.

Serrano profiles as mostly a corner outfielder, but the Mets also plan to play him in center field.

“He looks like he can potentially do it,” Christie said. “He is rangy with speed, and he’s physical.”

Medium - The Really Big 2025 Mets Prospects Ranking

https://medium.com/@mdonodeo8/the-really-big-2025-mets-prospects-ranking-5c0fbaaa49f0

4) IF Jesus Baez 

One of the few recent success stories from the Dominican Republic, Baez popped pretty soon after signing and showed a lot of underlying skills in the complex league in 2023 even if the 71 wRC+ left a lot to be desired. I noted him as a breakout player for 2024, and he responded by posting good results in low-A and a brief stint in Brooklyn before tearing his meniscus in August, which ended his season.

He has a good amount of pre-pitch movement in the swing, but the hands generally get into good loading positions to fire with bat speed, and the contact rates have been very good so far, in the mid to upper 80s in the zone. He has shown some whiffs against breaking balls at times, but also fantastic contact rates against fastballs and offspeed, and it evened out to 87th percentile whiff rates vs secondaries in low-A. Further reducing the strikeout rates is the fact that he drastically changes how open or closed his stance is pre-pitch depending on count, focusing more on contact when behind. He will expand the zone some, but he’s also aggressive within the zone, and I think that approach can work for someone who should be posting good results on contact. His 104 EV90 and 110 max exit velocities are both in line with MLB averages, and while he’s pretty built out already, there’s a future above average power projection considering his ability to hit the ball in the air to the pullside. While good, the power outputs still haven’t been quite as prolific as his combination of sweet spot rate and exit velos would suggest, but I’m willing to trust the numbers here and project good power going forward.

I was unable to find any defensive footage of him, but Ben Zeidman of BP (and now the Red Sox) praised his twitchiness but noted the transfers can get long and the footwork leaves some to be desired. With his thicker frame and good arm, this feels like a future third base profile to me, although the meniscus tear could change the outlook of this and his speed grade, which already leaves a little to be desired. That side, you’re buying the traits with the bat, which could be really fun.

Scouting grades: 55 hit, 55 power, 45 run, 50 field, 60 arm

Optimistic comp: 2024 Alec Bohm

5) RHP Nolan McLean

McLean was a two-way guy at Oklahoma State and at first continued to go both ways in New York. While he was pretty raw on both sides of the plate, his future was always on the mound (the swing mechanics were rough and the contact skills evaporated in the upper minors), and in June he switched to being pitcher-only. This comes with expected progression on both the stuff and command side as he is able to rest more and work more specifically on pitch design, and his season culminated in a productive stretch from mid-August on where the K/BB rates remained good but the results on contact evened out closer to where his peripherals were. In this time he also saw some improvements in the delivery — his old segmented “out-and-down” linear move replaced by a much more fluid motion down the hill.

Most of the talk around McLean is centered around the sweeper, for good reason, but he has shown hints of a deeper arsenal, which is important for someone who can spend an offseason specifically focused on pitch design. The fastball sits in the mid 90s and grabs higher, hitting 99 in college and continuing to grab upper 90s in pro starts. The movement is in the dead zone, but a lower release height helps give the pitch some VAA traits when he can locate it up in the zone. It’s probably an average pitch without future shape gains. His best pitch is the sweeper, which has added velo since college — now sitting in the mid-80s while still moving over a foot gloveside, sometimes well above that. It didn’t perform quite as well as one would expect, but I’m willing to trust the stuff grades here and put a 70 on it. His true cutter and standard slider from college have merged into a bridge breaker with slight lift and sweep that should be plus if he can improve his feel for it. His changeup is not particularly good, but he has some traits that remind me of other pitchers who have recently found success with a splinker (hard thrower, deadzone-ish fastball), so that could be an interesting option for an offseason project. He may have flashed a sinker and curveball towards the end of the season — a sinker making a ton of sense for how the Mets have recently operated with these types of arms — so those will be things to watch out for in the spring.

There is a decent amount of reliever risk for someone ranked this high — right now he has present feel for two pitches (although I’d be surprised if another pitch or two doesn’t pop), and the fastball isn’t good enough to turn over a lineup multiple times as a two pitch guy. That said, I’m excited to see what he looks like with a full offseason of pitcher-only development.

Scouting grades: 50 FF, 70 SW, 60 SL, 30 CH, 45 command

Optimistic comp: If Evan Phillips had a better bridge pitch and became a five-and-dive

Just Baseball - New York Mets Top 15 Prospects

https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/new-york-mets-top-15-prospects/?s=03

9. Drew Gilbert – OF – (Triple-A)

Height/Weight: 5’9″, 195 | Bat/Throw: L/R | 1st Round (28), 2022 (HOU) | ETA: 2025 

A bad hamstring injury and challenges with secondaries resulted in a frustrating 2024 season for Gilbert, but he is still a high-probability big leaguer who may squeeze enough out of each tool to be an everyday option.

Outlook

While the tools are mostly average across the board, Gilbert does not need to realize his ceiling to fill a big league role thanks to his value with the glove and overall feel for the game. That said, he will need to find more consistency in the batter’s box to project as an everyday outfielder.

The high-end outcome is a center fielder with solid on-base base skills and close to 20 homers. He’s most likely a high-end fourth-outfielder platoon option or a second-division regular.

10. Jonah Tong – RHP – (Double-A)

Height/Weight: 6’1″, 180 | Bat/Throw: R/R | 7th Round (209), NYM (2022) | ETA: 2026

Tong was the breakout arm in the Mets system for 2024, riding a nearly two tick leap with his fastball to a 3.03 ERA in 113 IP with a ridiculous 34% strikeout rate across mostly Low and High-A. If he continues to out pitch expectations at Double-A, Tong could fly up prospect lists.

Outlook

Tong’s elite ability to generate carry on his fastball paired with the uptick he enjoyed in 2024 has him now tracking like a potential back-end starter. Execution will be crucial for Tong as he lacks a clear plus pitch beyond his fastball, earning his whiffs on the back of his fastball and funkiness.

With a secondary strike rate of just 58% in 2024, Tong will need to take a step forward in the command department to upgrade his swingman outlook to a potential No. 5 starter.

Mets looking for top prospects to complement veteran stars

https://www.mlb.com/news/new-york-mets-spring-training-prospect-report-2025?partnerID=web_article-share

Camp standout: Jesus Baez

Signed for $275,000 in January 2022, Baez had made modest progress during his Dominican Summer League debut after signing and then during his United States debut in the Florida Complex League in '23. It was last year that things really started to click as a 19-year-old infielder. After hitting 10 homers and posting a .782 OPS with St. Lucie in the Florida State League, Baez was nudged up to High-A Brooklyn. He was more than holding his own when he tore his right meniscus, ending his season.

The Mets have been thrilled to see how hard Baez, the No. 8 prospect in the organization, has worked of late as he nears the end of his rehab progression, and he should be ready to go at the start of the season.

“He’s really focused on getting stronger and he’s been a standout in live BPs by barreling a lot of balls,” Christie said. “He has a natural skill set as a hitter, he’s comfortable in the box. And we think he can play short, second and third and move around the infield.”