MACK - MY Tuesday Obvervations

 

Good morning.

 

One of last two prediction pieces here. Today, the major league player predictions and then Thursday morning, opening day, my overall thoughts on how the team will do.

First up, the pitchers.

My Starter Of Year first has to be addressed by the reduction of starters that I think will pitch themselves out of any chance of receiving this award. Kodai Senga is going to start off on a pitch count and, my prediction is he’s not done winding up on the IL. In addition, I love what I’m seeing from our new members of the rotation, but this award goes to the steady, Eddie of this rotation… David Peterson. I even think there is a chance he will play in the All-Star game this year. That’s how big I am on him.

My Reliever Of The Year goes out to a new addition on the team. A.J. Minter. He’s still amping up so I don’t look for anything dominant here in April. Still, over the entire season, my prediction is he will be putting pressure on Edwin Diaz for the closer role come the future.

My Runner-up Bat Of The Year Because We All Know Who The Bat Of The Year Will Be is a favorite of mine since he was drafted out of powerhouse American Heritage HS (FL). Mark Vientos. My guess is he is going to take advantage of the fact that opposing pitchers will try not to embarrass themselves when the new Mets right-fielder steps up to the plate, which will create a situation that they will have to pitch more to players like Vientos. I see big dividends for the Florida boy.

My Rookie Of The Year goes to someone I’m not sure still qualifies as a rookie, but, what the hell, this is my column. Brett Baty. Yes, Baty is having a strong spring, but my guess is he will prove doubters wrong and make Jeff McNeil put his second base mitt on the shelf when he returns from the IL.

Regarding disappointments, I don’t deal with that until Thursday.

Isaac              @isaacgroffman

Excited to dig into this new data!

In 2024 Francisco Lindor moved deeper in the box (both sides) and farther from the plate (as a lefty), his wRC+ jumped from 121 to 137

Really small changes, probably not on purpose, but cool to see

 

Quickest jumps from Draft to Opening Day roster in baseball history

https://www.mlb.com/news/hitters-who-made-opening-day-roster-the-quickest-after-draft?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

 

John Olerud, 1990 Blue Jays (6 games)

After becoming the first NCAA Division I player to record 20 homers and 15 victories in the same season in 1988 at Washington State, Olerud wasn't at his best the following spring after having surgery to remove an aneurysm at the base of his brain. Though he told teams he planned on returning to college, the Blue Jays took him in the third round and signed him in late August for a record $575,000 bonus as part of an $800,000 big league contract. They immediately promoted him to the Majors, where he went 3-for-8, launching a 17-year career that included a pair of World Series rings, a batting title with Toronto, two All-Star Game berths and three Gold Gloves.

Ranking all 30 MLB teams’ Opening Day lineups:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6225735/2025/03/24/mlb-lineups-ranked-dodgers-braves-opening-day/

4. New York Mets

Juan Soto, the Mets’ $765 million superstar, singlehandedly changed the complexion of this lethal lineup. The top half of the Mets’ lineup is special with shortstop Francisco Lindor, who finished second in the NL MVP voting and was a stolen base shy of a 30/30 season; Soto, who has a career .421 on-base percentage; Pete Alonso, who is good for 35 to 40 homers a season; and Mark Vientos, who broke out with 27 bombs last year. Catcher Francisco Alvarez will start the year on the IL with a broken hamate bone in his left hand but still has 25-30 home run power and breakout potential. 

 

Tim Healey              @timbhealey

Jett Williams will open the season with Double-A Binghamton, David Stearns said on SNY.

-         Mack:  smart move… the kid really didn’t play that much at this level last season. It also leaves the Syracuse shortstop position open for LuisAngel Acuna if the Mets decide to place him there. Otherwise, Donathan Walton will be the AAA starter. Blocked at Binghamton is William Lugo who will probably open up for Brooklyn.

  

Thomas Nestico                 @TJStats

Jonah Tong already had one of the best fastballs in MiLB. If he can sustain these velocity gains we are taking about one of the best pitching prospects in baseball! 

Blade Tidwell - NYM

Tidwell struggled in AAA last season due to command issues and declining stuff, but he looked on another level this Spring. His velocity bump helped pave the way for an immaculate inning!

 

Mets Prospect Group                  @bkfan09

Lot of Top Mets People At The DSL Academy today.  To see the $5M teenager Elian Peña ... Mets also having a workout with a prospect in the 2026 and 2025 classes 

 

Mets’ Brett Baty no longer a prospect, but hope remains: ‘He’s gotta go out and do it’

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6223536/2025/03/23/mets-brett-baty-expectations/  (sub only)

Baty is again in a good position for an opportunity. This time, will he seize it? There’s plenty at stake. Baty holds just one minor-league option. In addition to Jeff McNeil looming as the incumbent second baseman, prospects such as Luisangel Acuña, Jett Williams and Ronny Mauricio are on Baty’s heels. He needs to perform when it matters. It’ll either be the kind of season that required years in the making or one that started with another false spring.

Eno Sarris’ updated MLB starting pitcher rankings for the 2025 season

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6211367/2025/03/21/sarris-mlb-starting-pitcher-rankings-fantasy-baseball/

 

#39 -      Kodai Senga

104 Stuff+

3.43 ppERA

He pitched some in the postseason, so it might be easy to forget that Kodai Senga missed all but five innings of the regular season in 2024. Was he even healthy when he came back? It was 94-ish on the fastball in the playoffs, but in short bursts and with poor results. You can put an up arrow on the back of this Ghost Fork slinger if he's healthy in the spring, but the health rating here will still be barely passing at best. If you were conservative with your first couple of starters though, Senga represents good upside with that arsenal, in that park, with that offense behind him.

 

#46        Clay Holmes

124 Stuff+

3.48 ppERA

Without adding to his arsenal, Clay Holmes can probably be a successful starting pitcher based on his super-sinker and great two-breaking-ball arsenal. He'll keep the ball on the ground and in the park, and double plays will help clean up some weaknesses against lefties and the occasional bout of poor command. But in the playoffs, the righty showed a four-seamer that had more ride than he'd ever had on the pitch before. Even a league-average fastball would raise the celing on this conversion by giving him more whiffs and fewer walks against righties.

Bowden’s 2025 All-MLB Breakout Team: A 26-man roster of promising players to watch

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6219550/2025/03/21/mlb-breakout-predictions-2025/

 

Francisco Alvarez, Mets

Age: 23

Bats: R Throws: R

Height: 5-10 Weight: 233

Earlier in spring training, I predicted that Alvarez would make his first All-Star team and hit at least 30 home runs this year. But then he fractured a hamate bone in his left hand and will start the season on the injured list, which might keep him from ticking off those accomplishments in 2025. However, that won’t stop me from predicting a breakout for Alvarez. He’s one of the hardest-working young players in the game, always striving to get better. The Mets’ pitching staff loves to pitch to him because of those traits. He’s also fortunate to be in a lineup with stars such as Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto, which gives him the opportunity to learn from some of the best in the game.

Seven New York Mets minor league arms to watch in 2025

https://www.si.com/mlb/mets/news/seven-new-york-mets-minor-league-arms-to-watch-in-2025

3. Jonah Tong, RHP [No. 6 ranked Mets prospect]

Jonah Tong, a 21-year-old right-hander, had a strong 2024 campaign, where he posted a 3.03 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 160 strikeouts across 113 innings (25 appearances, 23 starts). Tong finished his year by making his final two starts for Double-A Binghamton, which is where he will likely begin his 2025 season.

Tong started the Mets' Spring Breakout game on Sunday and notched two scoreless innings. He throws a 96-97 mph fastball, has a curveball and hard cutter/changeup. Tong is now the Mets' No. 6 prospect, per MLB Pipeline, and could make his way to the majors by 2026 if he remains on track.

Just Baseball - New York Mets Top 15 Prospects

https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/new-york-mets-top-15-prospects/?s=03

Other Names to Consider

Jacob Reimer – 3B – (High-A): After a solid first pro season in 2023, Reimer missed most of the 2024 season with a hamstring issue before being sent to the Arizona Fall League for additional reps. A third baseman by trade, Reimer saw some action in left field in the AFL and has played some first base as well. Nothing jumps off of the page tools wise, but Reimer has an good feel to hit and great approach with potentially more power in the tank.

 

Jeremy Rodriguez – SS/2B – (Low-A): Bottom-of-the-scale power limits Rodriguez (his average exit velocity was 83.8 MPH in 2024), but he is still extremely young with strong baseline abilities. While he projects best at second base, Rodriguez is capable of playing shortstop. His contact skills are comfortably above average and he won’t expand the zone much.

With just average speed, much of Rodriguez’s value will come from his ability to get on base, but it would surely help if he could improve upon his 20-grade power as he enters his age-19 season.

Medium - The Really Big 2025 Mets Prospects Ranking

https://medium.com/@mdonodeo8/the-really-big-2025-mets-prospects-ranking-5c0fbaaa49f0

 

14) Eli Serrano II

 Serrano had a similar profile in the draft to Benge, albeit with less raw power and the profile moving the opposite direction over the course of the season than Benge — it was flagged to me post-draft that the contact rates fell some in conference play before shooting back up in his very strong playoffs. That said, the profile was still centered around making a good amount of contact, drawing walks (albeit being too passive), and hoping that the exit velocities would come as he filled out his lanky frame and made some swing tweaks. The biggest change he made post-draft was simply swinging with more intent than he did in college. This led to a slight drop in zone contact, but more importantly, a big reduction in chase contact, which could increase swinging strike rates but lead to better results on contact. The contact rates are still fine, and the power increased a decent bit already. A good rule of thumb is to remove 4 ticks of exit velo as a player moves from metal to wood bats, but Serrano didn’t see this reduction in his pro stint. His EV90 dropped a tick to 102.9, his max EV dropped a couple ticks to 108.9, and his average EV actually gained 0.1 mph from his college season. On top of these EV gains, the launch angles were much better, potentially due to making less contact on bad pitches — he posted a sub-40% ground ball rate, a sweet spot rate of 40%, and a 91st percentile pulled fly ball rate in low-A. There’s still more power on the way as he continues to fill out his frame, and I think there’s a world it could get to plus if everything goes right. It’s more of a power-over-hit profile than it was at the time of the draft, but I think these are positive changes given what the power potential is at the top end of his outcomes. He’s a surprisingly good runner and I think he can handle an outfield spot long term, although it might be limited to left if the body fills out so much he can’t handle center field. There is also some platoon risk in the whiff profile, but this is mostly mitigated by being on the strong side, with plenty of opportunities to get playing time.

Scouting Grades: 45 hit, 55 power, 55 run, 50 field, 45 arm

Optimistic Comp: Brendan Donovan

 

15) Elian Peña

Peña made history as the first international free agent in franchise history to sign for five million dollars, and also as the first to sign for three million dollars, or four million dollars. It’s a huge change of pace for the organization, although this deal predates the Stearns regime.

There’s limited information on him at this point — especially against good arms — but his hit tool has been lauded a ton by scouts. This comes from showing an elite ability to control the strike zone and make contact when he does swing. I’m not entirely convinced his swing is currently designed to handle higher velo that he hasn’t really seen yet — there can be a lot of stiffness in the swing combined with a pronounced coil in the load that doesn’t totally pass the sniff test to me. That said, the hit tool marker results have been there, and he pairs this potential contact/PD profile with a ton of bat speed that can lead to significant damage on contact. When everything is clicking, the swing looks better and he can spray hard hit fly balls to the pullside. It’s a profile with a ton of offensive potential if it all clicks. Defensively, he shows good actions in the infield, and likely ends up at third base if the body fills out a little more. He’s worked hard on his athleticism (at least per public reporting from the team) and has recently posted plus or better 60 yard dash times, so speed could be a positive part of his game.

Overall, it’s a fun profile with a ton of potential outcomes on either tail of his median projection. Hit rates of high-money IFA signings has been pretty low recently, and Peña isn’t a product of the new regime, but he has as good of a chance as almost anyone to be considered a global top prospect in a year’s time. If that outcome hits, the Mets could have a future superstar on their hands. We’ll see.

Jim Koenigsberger            @Jimfrombaseball) 

"In baseball and in life, it's not about how hard you can swing, but about how well you can connect."

Gary Carter