The bottom fell out yesterday for the New York Mets of 2025. The ink was still wet on Edwin Diaz’ $69M deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers when word hit that Pete Alonso had reached agreement to become a Baltimore Oriole. Then the other shoe hit – the Mets had lost three of their minor league prospects in the minor league rule 5 draft.
Before getting into the implications, let’s go through the recent events:
Edwin Diaz chose to accept an offer from the Dodgers for a three-year contract worth $69M, which is an AAV of $23M. Diaz was making $18.5M AAV with the Mets and had two years plus a club option remaining when he exercised an opt-out provision in his contract to test the market. The Mets were active in the negotiation with Diaz, and knowing the resources available to the Mets’ leadership, it is not likely that they were unable to afford the raise. No, I would suggest that Diaz did not want to return.
Pete Alonso has flirted with free agency for two years now, looking for a deal that would give him and his family a lifetime of security. It was clear that there were several teams interested, including the Mets. Pete signed for five years, $155M. Not many details of the contract are available, but unless there is significant bonus money involved, it would be an AAV in excess of $30M per year. For reference, Freddie Freeman is making $27M per year through the 2027 season. We may never know how competitive the Mets’ offer was, or how strong the pull of the New York fans was for Pete. The deal is done, and Pete is no longer a Met.
Three Mets’ minor leaguers were among those unprotected in the organization that were tapped in the rule 5 draft:
RHP Trey McLoughlin: Trey pitched with both the St. Lucie Mets (low A) and the Binghamton Rumble Ponies (AA) last season. He had a 2-0 record with a 4.09 ERA in 22 innings with the AA team. He was very well thought of in the organization and had received an invite to play in the prestigious Arizona Fall League in 2023. McLoughlin will be 27 this summer.
RHP TJ Shook: Shook was a relief pitcher who was obtained in a mid-2024 exchange of minor league pitchers with the Milwaukee Brewers. Shook spent the 2025 season closing for the AA Binghamton Rumble Ponies with 7 saves in 9 opportunities, logging a 2.34 ERA with 56 strikeouts in 50 innings. Shook was a late bloomer, with his recent success coming after several years moving through a variety of teams. He will be 28 years old next season.
RHP Dylan Tebrake: Tebrake was an eighth round pick out of Creighton in the 2022 draft by the Mets. He was a high K-rate pitcher in the lower minors (St. Lucie, Brooklyn) until he was sidelined for the 2024 season due to injury. Last year he made a brief return, logging four innings with St. Lucie, but was expected to be healthy this year.
The Mets also poached two pitchers in the rule 5 draft, RHP Justin Armbruester from the Orioles and LHP Aaron Rozek from the Yankees.
The rule 5 transactions were just part of the normal process of MLB teams mining for gold by trying to identify talent that they can mold into someone of value to the organization. The free agent losses were enormous in proportion to the rule 5 activity. But there is a common element, and that is change.
When the 2025 season ended, David Stearns vowed to do a full analysis of the root causes for the very significant meltdown the team experienced. The real results of that analysis are privileged information to the ball club and there are probably very few people who really know what the details of that analysis are. But the actions that have transpired over the last few weeks – the trading of Nimmo for Semien, the departure of Diaz and Alonso, and probably more player movement to follow points to a pretty clear objective. Stearns decided to make major changes to the construction of this team – from the core on out.
Mets fans will surely struggle with the loss of some real fan favorites. All of us had embraced them as key parts of the journey towards a championship that has not been celebrated in 40 years. However, the leadership showed that they did not have confidence that this was the right roster to get there, and last year’s results justify that position. It is going to be hard to watch further dismantlement of the team, but at the same time there is an underlying hope that this next iteration will be stronger and more likely to compete for the title. Only time will tell as the new coaching staff works with new acquisitions and the advancement of some top minor league prospects.
37 comments:
Morning, Paul
My mind is sort of blank right now. Stearns keeps standing in front of the gaggle, saying he loves the way the pre-season is going, and, to me, it seems to be going in any direction other than the Mets.
I'll say this... the Wilpon era is over. Only one player, Jeff McNeil, remains on this team. And we know how fragile his future is here.
I walk away yesterday with two happy thoughts... Saul Garcia and Joel Diaz weren't plucked away on the Rule 5 snore-fest.
My next overall thoughts on this will be in my next RANDOM THOUGHTS post, which is far away. Until then, I will comment and cut and paste away.
The “Youth Revolution” has begun! Losing Diaz was a bit surprising, but what can we do if a player wants to pursue a different opportunity.
Alonso sealed his fate when he rejected that $158 million extension, you can’t bully a Hedge fund Samurai like Cohen, especially if your only weapon is a lawyer like Boras who sounds more like “the Riddler” with each passing day.
Twitter is on full meltdown, full of zombies who are programmable from media fear-porn campaigns and false hopes, best show in town right now.
2026 is going to be a fun season, we’re gonna get to see some of the younger players take steps forward and we’ll see some rookies establish themselves.
Before you know we’re going to have one of the more potent, well-balanced offenses in the league again.
As the great Lou Brown once said:
“My kinda team Charlie…It’s my kinda team…”
Paul, I too am a little worried about the Mets’ winter. It’s clear that they won’t find a better hitter in free agency than Alonso and now must give up prospect currency to fill their voids. The offer that Baltimore made was aggressive but it seems the Mets didn’t even make one and Alonso was more open to DH’ing more according to SNY.
As everyone is replaceable, I would like to thrust Alvarez and Vientos into the limelight to see how they handle it. Get a decent right handed hitting DH, find a left fielder (or RF if Soto would switch), and let’s roll.
Looking at the expected Luxury Tax cost for just the current Mets team, it’s $274MM without adding anything. They keep losing draft capital and while they don’t need the money, they aren’t winning championships every year like the Dodgers are.
However, it’s obvious that they won’t Mets will have to pass $300MM again if they want to sell tickets so if the rumors of Contreras are true, that’s $18MM right there. Hopes of Tatis would add around $30MM. Another reliever, such as Fairbanks, could add close to $12MM (why didn’t the Rays just trade him?).
Trading Alonso’s money for Tatis would be a step forward for the lineup, but Contreras would be a small step down.
I have no concerns that Shook, Trey, and Tebrake are any sort of real loss. Maybe the two pick ups are better. Thoughts?
The 2025 team did not lose because of Nimmo, Edwin, and Pete. It lost because the pitching utterly collapsed over the last 60% of the season. So, it will be interesting what Stearns does from here.
Semien is old, but just 3 years.
Edwin, Pete, and Nimmo may have strong 2026 seasons, but how will they do as they age further into their 30s in 2027, 2028, etc.? Will they replace those 3 with younger players who provide less in 2026, but more in 2027, 2028, and beyond? Time will tell. How did 30+ Manea and Montas age in 2025? Badly.
Jose Reyes dropped 90 points from age 33 to age 35.
David, dazzle us. Hopefully with younger talent that has proven Citi Field hitting skills.
Mike, MLBTR did a writeup if Alonso’s rejection of that offer in 2023. The same seven years will now bring the $20.2MM arbitration, the $30MM from last year, and $155MM more the next five years thusly $205.2MM over the same seven year period. Now, Alonso was right to reject it.
I have my updated 2026 40-man commitment at close to 300mil. I will elaborate in my next RANDOM THOUGHTS post
Mets lost nothing in the Rule 5
Gained nothing either
Let's not forget the role of timing -- both good and bad. The 1st base problem of Alonso leaving is really just that it was a year too early from the Mets perspective. They have a potential solution for 2027 in either Clifford or Reimer or both at the position and sharing time in DH as well, but neither is really ready on OD 2026. But then you don't want to sign a big bat capable of really filling Alonso's output at 1B, even if one is available (easy to see now why there was SO much interest last year around this time in Guerrero; he is a real answer and over the long term, ceteris paribus) because that closes the door on the potential solutions at much lower cost that you have in the organization now. And it means taking money away from places it can be better spent from a time and value perspective. And that really is more a timing issue (that Mets couldn't control) more than anything else. That's one reason why you hear about these rather makeshift short term solutions (Goldschmidt/McNeil, etc.), rather than say, Bellinger, who is long term and real money. I think much of the money is being saved for free agent pitching next few years.
Same problem -- timing-- shows up in the outfield. You have four credible major league (almost) ready outfielders, none of whom is guaranteed to be ready for 2026. And to be honest, we could 3 of them, but which three. Again, not just yet (certainly can't be confident). I don't doubt that there is an excellent plan in place; I just think it has hit a snag that was always going to be there which is timing .
Pete turned down Cohen long term offer
Kiss of death
Plan... Tatis
I taught torts for 30 years so I am inclined to think in terms of insurance when faced with these kinds of issues. Of all the position players out there on the free agent market, the one that insures that you get the time you need for proper evaluation and decision making at the most positions but at the highest cost (in money and years) is Bellinger. After that it is Bregmann at two potential positions for second most cost (IB/3B); switch him with Baty and you are set at 3B until Pena is ready. Next is O'Hearn, 1B and LF help, at considerably lower cost, but at a potential big loss in power replacement. And then there is an expanded trade with Minnesota that provides two levels of insurance Ryan and Buxton, the real advantage of which is that both are on short term contracts; and Ryan is additive to the starting rotation no matter what you do in free agency. I do believe that means giving up a Tong or Sproat and someone farther down the pitching pecking order and one of the outfielders and perhaps one of the current ML 'baby Mets'. Just putting all this down so readers can see that even with the losses suffered so far, the real culprit re: Alonso, is timing. They were never going to bet on him long term. One more year would have been nice.
I don't know the plan, but if it is to have most money saved for free agency SP while expecting the major position players to come from within the organization, I prefer the expanded Minnesota trade as very reasonably priced insurance, along with an O'Hearn signing at 1B and refocuse of energy at figuring out DH, then filling in bullpen.
Be optimistic until there is no reason to be. Right now there are solutions that fit well into the long range planning options.
Lol, you keep teasing us Mack. Is there a whisper out there or you are simply hoping.
We are all guessing right now, but one thing is for sure... this is Stearns' team going forward.
I now see a future of seasoned, successful vets on this team... maybe Bellinger, Bregman, or Tatis.
Pitching wise, I see one seasoned add this pre-season and then an all-out push for Skubal next year.
I also see Yanzy Diaz in the picture a year from now
But that's just me
You shall live in interesting times.
I am sure evaluators are telling David that the crop in AAA/AA alone will.keep this team in pitching for 10 years, but the problem still is they have proven nothing (i.e.Tong)... and they will be "coming SOON to a team near you"
Maybe Stearns plan will work but the last 2 days bring back memories of the 1977 midnight massacre when the Mets got rid of Seaver and Kingman…M. Donald Stearns
I guess at this point we have to just let the dust settle. It's obvious to me that he has cleared the team of everyone from the Wilpon era. McNeil poses no threat to the Stearns/Cohen authority, so in my mind they will either trade him or he will just fade into history in his last year.
Also, I have been watching his press conferences, and he is giving every indication that he will not sign anyone long term. He has stated over and over that he won't give long term contracts to anyone in their 30's.
To me that means no Bellinger, Tucker, Valdez etc. If he does anything it will be short term FA's or trades. I don't like the Contreras idea...will he give you any more than Goldschmidt/McNeil?
I would try to pick up a reliever or two, possibly make a trade for a SP and a short term OF...then bring on the kiddies when ready.
No one is safe right now other than McLean and Soto
If i hear the term "I'm doing it for my family " once more, I'll choke. As if a million less will qualify them for SNAP benefits. Many of us felt giving Alonso more than 3 years was financially unwise. After all is said and done, we will field a very competitive team in 2026.
I will miss Shook - he was really coming into his own last year. He had developed a very deceptive delivery that generated a lot of swing and miss. Otherwise, the losses are recoverable, especially since we snagged two in return.
I know there is a lot of sentiment to go get Bellinger. I just don't see that being a solution that gets us to the promised land. Yes, he is good, but when he was teamed with Soto in that other New York borough they didn't win it either.
Recall early September when they were in the midst of one of their several melt down modes. We were all talking about blowing up the core. That has been completed. I do believe they will make trades for established (relatively expensive) players eg, Contraras to bridge to the young talent. They will build a true playoff caliber team & bet on upside as young talent matriculates during the year - pitching & positional talent). They will do more & look for 2024 magic, hopefully with stronger first half & a little less drama. Wait & see…
Tatis is like a Rolex. Everyone wants one, no one can afford one. Wait, no one? Cohen just saved $155M.
I wonder if Lindor is safe. He is pre-Stearns. Has Cohens ear. Not liked by Soto. Maybe McNeil saw through his constant smile.
How's that for a conspiracy theory.
If this is true, then it creates the exact scenario that I ranted about when we signed Soto. 25 +1
Muh, Huh, Huh...as I slowly twist my mustache. As per Snydley Whiplash.
RV, why would you want Contrares? He's much worse defensively than Alonso. Costs twice as much as getting a player like Goldschmidt and will cost prospects. Goes against the defensive team Stearns is trying to build.
I’m not advocating him. I actually thought Goldschmidt might be a good bridge platoon as while back. I do think thy will find “established guys with short term contracts to fill in as bridge players or young controllable guys to trade prospect capital to put a competitive team on the field while the pitching matriculates & the AAA players get some grooming time. Contraras actually had better defensive metrics than Pete & could also spell Alvarez if he gets hurt again as well as DH. Only two years @ $25M per year so he kind of fits the bridge role. Christian walker as well (maybe for Manaea & cash?). I do think they will look to get younger & more athletic AND sign/trade for established fill-in players this winter. Stearns keeps talking “traditional need-for/need trades”. He is definitely not doing cosmetic work this offseason.
If you recall the press conference two weeks ago when Cohen was saying that he thought Boras/Pete had unacceptable terms in their contract demands, he implied that they were already looking at alternatives. I am sure they were not surprised, and I am sure that they are well along the path for plan "B". I am very anxious to find out what that is.
Lets face it it's June 15 1977 and I have to give it to the boy genius he has balls because the shit storm is gonna be huge. M Donald didn't have to face social media and his hate for Seaver who refered to him as "the plantation owner" never ceased so now we see just how good our farm really is. Lets Go David!
Too old
Gus
Nah
I got nothing but my dreams
1B VIENTOS
2B SEMIEN
SS LINDOR
3B BATY
C ALVAREZ
LF BENGE
CF TAYLOR
RF SOTO
DH S MARTE
Well said......it amazes me how short sighted our fan base can be (sort of like a two year old on a sugar rush who isn't getting his/her way).
Plus, it's not like DS is dismantling the 1927 Yankees lineup, right? The Mets have been pretty mediocre outside of a nice regular season (2022) and a hot streak in the playoffs (2024).
Patience is the key word here.......I'll reserve judgement until we get into late March.
We need to face facts. This is a rebuild, not a re-tooling. Their window coincides window they’re aiming at coincides with the young, cheap pitching, as well as the prospects that Stearns keeps surprisingly listing by name when he speaks publicly coming into their own (2/3 yrs). That lines up with Soto being 29, and guys like Baty and Alvarez’ early prime years.
Anyone brought in now will either be a placeholder (Contreras, etc.) or someone whose prime (or the large part of it) fits that timeline. Good news, Mack, Tatis does fit that timeline.
The guy who doesn’t fit that timeline is Lindor, who is likely to be in decline by the time the pitching and prospects come together. He’s got a no-trade clause, but if the Mets are truly looking at ‘28 to begin a serious run, and that Soto will headline that timeline, I bet he’d waive it to go to an immediate contender.
Don’t be shocked to hear that Stearns is shopping him.
Mack, I would swap Goldschmidt for Marte (he can teach Vientos & also power rhph & defensive replacement as needed. Torrens, acuna (until Williams get promoted as utility IF & CF option. If we need one more OF that can play all the positions. Trade for SP & sign rogers & another RHRP
Trade Lindor to the dodgers!
I’m 100% with you. Their timeline is obviously right now, while ours realistically is 2/3 yrs from now, and they have one of the best farm systems in baseball. Betts goes to 2B, and they win the next 2 WS. I’d start with Pages and a couple of their top prospects.
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