Reese Kaplan -- Another Center Field Gamble Even More Expensive

Yesterday we took a look at one moderately priced veteran instead of the cream of the free agent crop available to the highest bidder. Yes, there are indeed risks associated with obtaining Byron Buxton between the cost to acquire him and the salary guaranteed despite his long history of injuries keeping him off the field.

Last year during the July maelstrom the Mets made an inquiry to try to swap necessary personnel to the lowly Chicago White Sox to bring their center fielder to Queens.  Luis Robert, Jr. most certainly has the kind of run prevention defensive skills any team would want to bring on board as part of a winning strategy.

Of course, the issue with Robert has been on the other side of the game. What made him look like the next superstar in the making was his 2023 season at age 25.  The Cuban refugee had a memorable season.  He finished the year batting .265 with 38 HRs, 80 RBIs and 20 SBs.  For that he was paid $9.5 million, quite a bargain.

Unfortunately that one-off season that resulted in an All Star berth and a Silver Slugger has never been replicated. As his salary kept climbing his offensive numbers did not. In 2024 Robert hit just .224 with 14 HRs and 35 RBIs while stealing 23 bases over 425 plate appearances.  For that production he was paid $12.5 million. So was he 20% better than the already overpaid 2024 version of Harrison Bader?

The 2025 year was slightly better. The .224 batting average dipped to .223, the 14 HRs were repeated, but the RBIs did increase from 35 to 53.  Stolen bases did jump to 33.  Injuries again kept him from a full 500+ at-bats and his salary jumped to $15 million.  Compare those numbers to what Byron Buxton delivered and one of these things is not like the other.

Now here’s where it gets most interesting.  The White Sox could have simply cut him loose and moved in a different direction or face the increased pay rate to $20 million.  Oddly, they kept him, thinking they could parlay him into player resources from elsewhere while risking having to fork over the full salary or getting a paltry return on the trade market.

If you’re looking for a slim silver lining here it was Robert himself who hit .298 in the second half off last season.  His overall numbers offensively still were not good but that trend might suggest that his new employer could be acquiring more than a Gold Glove defender.

For a guy who thought poor hitting strong defenders were the answer — Bader, Siri and Mullins — it is not beyond the realm of possibility that David Stearns could indeed be that theoretical interested front office decision maker.  The difference here, of course, is the $20 million paycheck and the two headed gamble on both health and run production. While the price to acquire him would not be astronomical, would it be a positive move?  Stearns would surely be setting himself up for more second guessing than if he reacquired Frankie Montas to solidify the pitching staff.

Personally I would just say no.