The Mets of 2025 won 83 games, following a 2024 season where they won 89. Before that was the very difficult 2023 season where they won only 75 games with two future hall of famers on the pitching staff. Almost all of those teams has now been disassembled, and the rebuilding of the team is still in process.The leadership of the Mets organization from Steve Cohen down through the lowest staff member remain committed to building this team into a sustainable winner. Original projections of a five year path to success have not materialized and as we enter year six, the rebuilt team has a very hollow sound to it. Gone are the core players like Alonso, Nimmo, and McNeil. Gone are the pitchers like deGrom, Scherzer, and Verlander. What remains in place is shortstop Francisco Lindor, the generational talent of Juan Soto, and a cast of other players who have not distinguished themselves as MLB star caliber.
The roster is yet to be completed for the 2026 team, but if one takes what is currently available and compares last year’s starting position players to this year’s projected starting position players, there is a net loss of 2.8 WAR and 132 RBI. In other words, the replacements are not as good as the originals. So if your gut feeling so far this winter is that we are moving backwards, you are correct.
In all fairness to the Mets leadership team, sometimes you have to take a step backwards to have a clear path towards the goal. This appears to be the case with the current situation, as it was deemed necessary to blow up the core of the 2025 team instead of supplementing it with upgrades to the peripheral players.
Where from here? The assumption all along was that there would be a few major acquisitions to supplement the statistical losses of RBI and WAR. The impact players that would make a difference in those calculations are continuing to hold out for a better offer since they have multiple teams vying for their services. This would include players like Cody Bellinger, Kyle Tucker, and Bo Bichette who are each looking for multi-year deals with AAVs in the $27M-$35M range.
There has been no indication from the actions of the front office that they have any appetite for taking on long term contracts with inflated AAVs. In fact, all actions taken to date were very much to the contrary. The Mets are looking for value plays, and this is not the year for that type of deal. This leads to the conclusion that at the end of hot stove season, the team will be promoting young prospects to fill voids and challenging them to grow into their roles.
The implication of what you have just read is a lost 2026 season. It will be a year for younger players to work through the growing pains of adjusting to MLB competition. It will be a year of transition for existing players into potentially new roles like Polanco or Soto at first base. It will not be a return to a world championship in the 40th season since the last ticker tape parade. My projection is somewhere between 70-75 wins in 2026 and no significant awards for the coaching staff or the individual players. There will be regression not only at the team level, but also at individual levels, as the burden of carrying the team on their shoulders without adequate lineup protection eventually wears down Lindor and Soto. Be prepared, Mets fans. There is a price to pay for future success.
Oh, and by the way, happy new year!
