A much talked about topic during this year’s hot stove season is the activity (and inactivity) of the Mets’ front office.
The decision to let some of the Mets’ core players leave was consequential. These were fan favorites, they were productive players, and they were central to the excitement that built around the team during the 2024 run to the NLDS.
The decision to not replace these stars with other highly compensated stars right away has also been consequential. The New York media and a large chunk of the Mets’ fan base are really letting David Stearns have a piece of their mind.
Meanwhile, in a less vocal partition of those devoted to Mets’ success, there is much less criticism. Steve Cohen has endorsed Stearns and delegated a great deal of decision-making power to him which is a sign of trust. Within the Mack’s Mets writers team, there is still some strong support for what he is doing as it represents a strategic approach to building a winner. Particularly in the recent posts by our colleague RVH, one can see the logic to the decisions made to date. One can also see the potential payoff of this strategic approach even if it is not short term.
Unfortunately, professional sports has become a very impatient business. Win now or go home. The immediate firings of coaches and GMs after unsuccessful seasons extends throughout the major sports and you have seen it in the headlines from the NFL to European Soccer. Warren Buffet would never have made it in this game.
So my question today to those who follow the intricacies of the baseball transaction register and the steady flow of lower level players in and out of the Mets is this: How long can David Stearns play the long game?
Consider this: the 2026 season will be the 40th season since the 1986 Mets won the World Championship. There are few cities that have waited this long for another parade, and they are mostly much smaller markets. New York is the biggest market there is, and they have an appetite for success shaped by that other baseball team with pin-striped uniforms. Mets fans are always looking for hope, and with the Cohens we found hope. With the initial signing of a well-regarded Stearns, we found hope. With the acquisition of Lindor, Scherzer, Verlander, and many more, we found hope. With the OMG Mets of 2024, we found hope. All those hopes have been dashed. The OMG team is now Officially Mostly Gone.
Steve Cohen has committed his billions to make this team win. He has a very passionate fan base who have been conditioned over the years to deal with failure so there is some resilience. But with so many recent years ending with unfulfilled hopes, is there enough time to pull off a re-build that is done “the right way”? Or will the fan base crater and use empty seats to pressure Steve to replace the methodical Stearns with a more aggressive dealmaker?
Let me know in the comments section how many years to a championship will be endured before changes at the top. My guess is two years.
12 comments:
The playoffs are one thing, a championship is another.
Until we see how he rebuilds the team from here, we cannot predict 2026. My guy feeling is that making the playoffs will be difficult.
We all hope the Mets prospects will explode on the scene in 2026 and 2027/. McLean seems to be a definite, but how good will the rest be? Playoff good? Championship good? Or overrated not-so-good? Maybe all the minor league hitters in 2 years hit a combined .230, or maybe ,270. Who really knows? .230 won't get the team there, but it might get them to .500. A combined .270 would get us there, most likely.
We are now on that journey towards discovery.
Soto is squarely in his prime. Lindor will try to stay top of game as he gets older.
Alvarez will hit like a star if he can stay healthier. The rest will be wait-and-see.
We will have fingers and toes crossed. So will Stearns.
What rarely gets mentioned is the large impact that the probable 2027 strike has in signings and trades for the 2026 season. I don’t believe Stearns will sign anyone to more than a 3 or 4 year deal, and isn’t interested in a 1 year deal for a free agent with a QO attached. He also won’t trade high prospects for players with 1 year left on their contract (Peralta) or players in their 30’s.
I see a Bassitt signing as possible, and someone like Hayes for left field. Maybe a trade for Robert if we don’t have to part with top 10 prospects. They may go with Vientos and Mauricio to split DH. Not sexy, unless Bellinger, Tucker or Valdez are willing to take a short term deal of 2 to 3 years.
I believe that the early Cohen years were let's get the Verlanders, Sherzers, resign the Alonsos and hope we get that one championship. Like pushing all you chips in with only a low pair.
I believe that there has been a shift in strategy and to build off the minor league base to build a sustainable winner. Follow the blueprints created in Milwaukee with the ability to get the next level of player. Get or develop the players that have a good plate discipline. Here the ability to sign a Soto is someone that could not be done in Milwaukee but is the batter with that plate discipline. Develop the pitching staff internally as opposed to signing the free agents for huge dollars with declining skills and health questions.
Follow the Milwaukee blue print as opposed to the Dodgers blue print.
To answer your question, I believe that this year is that transition year with the sights on 2027 and beyond. And Stearns will be there through it all.
Bellinger - is he the MVP candidate in Yankee Stadium or the below replacement level batter outside of Yankee Stadium?
Tucker - is his ability to stay on the field the last two years a concern?
Valdez - is time catching up to him as his second half splits much worse than his first half splits? (Plus don't like the beaning of his catcher incident).
Bassitt - did he even wait for the bus before he left NY? I do like him on a short term deal.
Great topic this morning.
First... about replacing the departed core... let's not forget the addition of Marcus Semien and Jorge Polanco. Right now it may not look close to the loss of old friends, but it they do the jobs they will be asked to do, that's two of the nine bats filled.
Like AJ, I too feel the looming pending strike is weighing heavy on the immediate future of this team. I believe that, if Stearns wanted to throw around 5-7 year contracts, there would already be at least one more blue-chip addition on this team.
Lastly, I'm not sure if the Mets will ever be the popular choice by free agents after this fan friendly purge. Add to that the dynasty building of teams like LAD and the Blue Jays (they must have great dugout space heaters up there), and I don't think I'm going to see a Mets world series game for the remainder of this decade.
I think Stearns and Cohen have a strong bond, but. with the addition of the casino and hotel, I can't see Steve ever selling this team.
As for profit, does a guy worth over $21billion dollars really care about whether his hobby works perfectly?
No, Stearns will play out his contract and then on to the next one.
The great unknown for us is how well, or poorly, our prospects will do. Hopefully well. Stearns HAS to have a better read on that than us, because he has the coaches to fill him with reality.
I did an article a few months back, where Fangraphs showed reasonable usage and quality from Ross, Lambert, and Benge in 2026, but low innings from Tong and Sproat, and little or no production from other prospects in 2026? Are they right, or are they way too conservative? It is Stearn’s job to know.
Do we have a Nick Kurtz in our current prospects? I doubt it.
Strike? I have no mental bandwidth for multi-millionaires during it out with billionaires while games don’t get played. Sickening. I do think that the voiceless little guys, the guys who make $3 million or less on 1 year deals while hoping to stay in the game, should be paid something during the strike, say a prorated $1 million. Strike cancels a quarter of the season? They get paid $250,000.
Their careers in many cases are short, and the money lost by them over a strike where they have no input is significant as a percentage of the total $ they will ever earn from the game of baseball over the course of their career. Unfair. It is their CAREER being screwed with.
They have already been screwed, at least the hitters, by having 13 man hitting rosters as compared to the 15 man hitting rosters of years ago. So many marginal MLB careers snuffed over the negotiated deals of billionaires and mega millionaires that eliminated those 2 positions per team.
If it is a strike of any considerable length, I may therefore personally refuse to attend any major league game ever again, in protest.
Fangraghs are a bunch of nerds that never have put a baseball glove on no less picked up a bat that churn out these guesses in between playing video games
Tom, this may cement your singing career
I agree with most of the comments above. However, I don't agree that Cohen will accept anything less than success for his "hobby". He is used to success. Anything else feels ugly. If the Mets underwhelm 2026 under the Stearns plan, David will be under tremendous pressure in 2027.
true... a little harsh... I'll pull back on this one
I would love to see fan graphs analyzed for two things. The first would be how far collectively below results were they, and how far above results were they for a group of players. Meaning, take 20 real players that weren’t hurt during the year, and compare to their projections to see how close they were or how far off.
Secondly, since they had so few of the Mets prospects playing any amount of time in 2026 based on their projections, I wonder how they’ve done in the past with Mets prospects’ projections versus upcoming season actuals.
Two great examples would be what did they project for Jeff McNeil back in 2018, and Peter Alonso back in 2019. I don’t have access to that, but it would be very interesting to see.
Baseball reference also does projections. Cal Raleigh had 60 home runs last year, and baseball reference projected FelicCal will hit just 39 next year. It’ll be interesting to see how far above 39 he does hit if he stays healthy. Their projected plate appearances indicate that they expected to stay healthy and hit 39 home runs. I am thinking 49.
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