May 2025 Review (Retro Series)
Stress Begins to Accumulate
This is the second installment in the 2025 Mets Season Review Series. Each post steps back from day-to-day noise to diagnose what actually happened, why it mattered, and what it revealed about the organization beneath the results.
After a strong April, May represented the first real test of whether the Mets’ early success was durable — or simply well-timed.
📊 Monthly Snapshot (May)
OUTCOMES
Games 25
Record 15–10 (.600)
Runs Scored (RS) 98
Runs Allowed (RA) 85
Run Differential +13
RS per Game 3.92
RA per Game 3.40
OPPONENT & SCHEDULE CONTEXT
Opponent W% (season) .489
Games vs Playoff 12 of 25 (48%)
Home Games 15 of 25 (60%)
Road Games 10 of 25 (40%)
Days Off 4
Postponements 1
Doubleheaders 1
The Mets played solid baseball in May, but the profile was noticeably less dominant than April.
🧮 Outcomes vs Expectations (May)
Takeaway:
May’s record slightly outpaced underlying performance. The Mets were still winning — but the margin was thinning.
⚾️ Run Creation — Monthly
Runs Scored Distribution
Quantitative read
Offense remained productive at the high end
Low-scoring games continued to be a major vulnerability
Run creation consistency began slipping
🛡️ Run Prevention — Monthly
Runs Allowed Distribution
Quantitative read
The Mets still won when run prevention held
But games allowing 5+ runs increased sharply
Stress tolerance was eroding
🧠 Qualitative Context (Monthly)
This was the month where structural strain first became visible:
Starter length was inconsistent almost across the board
Montas and Manaea injuries, dating back to spring training, continued to remove innings from the system
Even effective starts often ended early, pushing bullpen usage higher
The team was still winning — but doing so by spending future resources
May did not break the Mets. It began to expose the cost curve.
📈 Season-to-Date (Through May)
📊 STD Snapshot
At the quarter-season mark, the Mets still looked like a strong contender.
🧮 STD Outcomes vs Expectations
STD takeaway:
The Mets had banked wins early — but BaseRuns was already signaling a team closer to “very good” than “elite.”
⚾️ Run Creation — STD
Scoring volume remained solid
But the offense increasingly depended on clustered output
There was little margin in games where pitching faltered
🛡️ Run Prevention — STD
Overall numbers still looked strong
But the distribution was shifting toward more mid- and high-RA games
Bullpen usage was trending heavier than ideal for late May
🧩 Strategic Takeaway
May confirmed the Mets were good enough to win — but no longer operating in a low-stress environment.
The rotation’s inability to consistently provide length was no longer theoretical. It was now showing up in usage patterns, leverage decisions, and underlying run prevention metrics.
The system was absorbing stress — but not without cost.
💬 Audience Prompt
Did May feel like a natural regression… Or the first signal that the early-season version of this team wasn’t sustainable?
🔁 Transition to June
June would raise the stakes. Early-season depth had been spent. Injuries were no longer isolated. And the question shifted from “Can this roster win?”
to “How long can it hold together?”
May’s record slightly outpaced underlying performance. The Mets were still winning — but the margin was thinning.
Offense remained productive at the high end
Low-scoring games continued to be a major vulnerability
Run creation consistency began slipping
The Mets still won when run prevention held
But games allowing 5+ runs increased sharply
Stress tolerance was eroding
Starter length was inconsistent almost across the board
Montas and Manaea injuries, dating back to spring training, continued to remove innings from the system
Even effective starts often ended early, pushing bullpen usage higher
The team was still winning — but doing so by spending future resources
The Mets had banked wins early — but BaseRuns was already signaling a team closer to “very good” than “elite.”
Scoring volume remained solid
But the offense increasingly depended on clustered output
There was little margin in games where pitching faltered
Overall numbers still looked strong
But the distribution was shifting toward more mid- and high-RA games
Bullpen usage was trending heavier than ideal for late May
to “How long can it hold together?”
8 comments:
The season, through May, was still a strong one for the Mets.
No one could have predicted what was to come...
RVH, you should redefine Baseruns in each article. Not a common source.
That said, yes, I was quite concerned. I was marveling at how the pitching was going, except for Tyler, McGill, and the heavy usage of the pen was also well noted by me back then. How long can you keep abusing your relief pitchers ? And how long would it be before they got the return of Montes and Manny and how would they be when they returned ? Well, we saw the pitcher injuries that followed in subsequent months. Pardon the typos from talk to type.
I did also expect, going past May, that Soto would pick it up. He more than picked it up, but it was not enough. It takes more than one star hitter to make things happen. Back in 1962, the Mets finished 80 games below 500, but slugging Frank Thomas had 34 homers and 94 RBIs. If he had 54 homers and 144 RBIs instead, they would’ve finished 65 games below 500.
Totally off subject, but do you know what former Met once had a year as a non-Met where he hit a sizzling .368/.436/.564? C’mon, take a guess.
Casey Stengel, in 1922, in half a seasons worth of at bats.
He did that at age 31.
Three years hence, at age 34, younger than Marcus Semien is now, he however tailed off to a mere 1 for 13, and hung up the cleats.
Casey would be 134 years old today, and if he were still around, he’d still be talking about them Metsies.
RVH, may I suggest more work going forward, LOL? Since you are doing this and we know who the culprit to the season was, can you include starter innings vs. bullpen innings so we can follow the collapsed of the pitching?
The Simien trade was a contract dump, we all know that. Simien is going to bat seventh or eighth and will just collect a paycheck. No one will complain if the Mets sign Tucker, but you can’t go after Tucker if Nimmo is still in your team and his down curve accelerates. Here is Nimmo’s Statcast page. Look at how many factors were average or a smidge below, and he is now coming out of his prime:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/brandon-nimmo-607043?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
Sorry, as for the article above, the numbers don't lie. I get a feeling as the articles continue the reality of them will leave many people speechless with sadness. This is great work RVH, thank you.
I’ll try on the innings cut. I actually have so much data it’s been hard to prune for readability.
All, appreciate the feedback. Just wait until June, August, September come. It’s really crazy (and painful) to see this decomposed at this level.
I can add even more content (but still keep it readable) if there is interest. Lmk & I’ll accommodate where I can.
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