Paul Articulates – Who stays? Part 5: Relief Pitchers

With a re-designed core and many new players and a deep reserve of prospects, this year’s spring training will become an intriguing competition for spots on the opening day 26-man roster.  

This series will take a look at the players that are in position to compete for a slot on that roster but are not a lock.  We will look at the pros and cons of carrying them with the MLB team when they break camp with the alternative being depth and development pieces in the minor leagues.

Some players are very well established as MLB regulars that are not reasonable candidates for demotion, so for the purposes of this review the following list of players are considered locked down on the MLB Roster:

Infielders: Francisco Lindor, Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco, Bo Bichette, 

Outfielders: Juan Soto, Luis Robert Jr., Tyrone Taylor

Pitchers: Freddy Peralta, Nolan McLean, Clay Holmes, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Devin Williams, Luke Weaver, Brooks Raley

Catchers: Francisco Alvarez; Luis Torrens

Given this list, and MLB rules that allow only 26 players on the active roster from opening day through August 31st, and that a maximum of 13 pitchers can be listed among the 26 players, there will only be room to carry five more pitchers and five more position players beyond what is listed above.

Today we will take a look at the Starting Pitchers that are vying for some of those five “contested” spots:

 

Relief Pitchers on the 40-man roster:

AJ Minter, Huascar Brazoban, Luis Garcia, Dylan Ross, Bryan Hudson, Joey Gerber, Alex Carillo, Austin Warren

AJ Minter – I am rooting for AJ Minter to make a full recovery.  He is a very effective lefty out of the pen in the late innings when he is at his best.  Unfortunately, he is going to take longer to rehab and will not be available for the first month.  At best he will join the team in mid to late May, making his two year, $22M contract effectively a five-month rental.  By the time he turns free agent again at the end of this season, he will be 33 years old.

Huascar Brazoban – Brazoban returns from a UCL injury to his right elbow suffered in August last year.  If he recovers to his previous performance standard, he is a sometimes effective, sometimes wild arm for the mid-to-late inning bullpen cast. 

Dylan Ross – I see Ross in the major leagues by 2027.  He is a power arm out of the bullpen that has been lights out in Brooklyn, then Binghamton, then Syracuse last season.  He pitched to a combined 2.17 ERA with 1.15 WHIP and 80 strikeouts in 49 games.  This included a 1.69 ERA in 288 appearances at AAA!  The team was so impressed with this 6’5” 251-pound fireballer last year that they placed him on the 40-man roster even though he didn’t yet need rule 5 protection.  He could open the season in the big leagues, especially since AJ Minter won’t be ready.

Luis Garcia – Luis Garcia is a veteran of 13 MLB seasons, most recently with the Angels.  He turned 39 in January, so the Mets’ investment of $1.75M with incentives increasing to possibly $3M is not going to be spent to make Syracuse better.  Garcia will pitch for the big-league club or he will be DFA’ed.  Only a disastrous spring would lead to the latter result, so I am projecting Garcia to be part of the active roster when the regular season begins.  Garcia is a ground ball pitcher (~50%) due to his great sinker which should synchronize nicely with the Mets’ improved infield defense.

All the rest – I don’t see Bryan Hudson, Joey Gerber, Alex Carillo, or Austin Warren breaking camp with the Mets.  They are all guys that David Stearns took a flyer on to add depth, and the opportunity for one of them to make the team will come from some breakthrough modification to their mechanics from the pitching lab data or some new pitch introduced by the pitching staff that perfectly complements their other stuff.  What is meaningful for this group is the depth that they will have in Syracuse.

Relief Pitchers not on the 40-man roster but with spring training invites: RHP Adbert Alzolay, RHP Mike Baumann, RHP Nick Burdi, RHP Daniel Duarte, RHP Craig Kimbrel, RHP Ryan Lambert, LHP Nate Lavender

Craig Kimbrell – Much like Garcia, Kimbrell will pitch for the big-league club or he will be DFA’ed.  He has a great history as a closer for Atlanta and had strong seasons for San Diego and Boston after that.  Since 2021 though, Kimbrell has lost some of what made him great.  His ERA and WHIP have increased and his K rate has gone down.  A late season run with Houston made him attractive enough for the Mets to take a chance that he has something left in the tank.

Nate Lavender – Lavender was a favorite amongst Mack’s writers before he was lost in a rule 5 draft two years ago.  Bad for him but good for the Mets, he didn’t meet the rule 5 requirements with Tampa, so they had to give him back.  Lavender is a lefty reliever with great stuff and when we last saw him with the Binghamton and Syracuse teams in 2023, he compiled a 2.98 ERA with 86 strikeouts in 54 innings pitched.  His 2024 season was curtailed by injury, and that injury was what kept him off the field in 2025 with the Rays, forcing his return.  If his rehab was successful, he may have a shot.

All the rest – I don’t see Adbert Alzolay, Mike Baumann, Nick Burdi, Daniel Duarte, or Ryan Lambert breaking camp with the Mets.  Most of them, like Alzolay, Baumann, Burdi, and Duarte have a MLB pedigree, but a performance record that does not stand out.  Once again, the opportunity for one of them to make the team will come from some breakthrough modification to their mechanics from the pitching lab data or some new pitch introduced by the pitching staff that perfectly complements their other stuff.  Lambert has looked good in the minors but probably needs more time at the AA/AAA levels to build up his confidence and his repertoire before competing at the MLB level.

To summarize, the large cast of relief pitchers hoping to make the club boils down to two groups with a chance: the elder statesmen looking for a career capper (Kimbrell and Garcia) and the young bucks ready for a career opener (Ross and Lavender).  Their performance over the six weeks of spring training is going to make the difference between success and failure.  Room is limited on the roster, so only superb springs will get these players where they want to be.