Steve Sica- Are the Mets Heading for a July Fire Sale?

It's the end of April, and the Mets are tied with their NL East rival, Philadelphia, for the worst record in baseball at 9-19.

Seeing these two NL East teams, both of whom have a top-five payroll in baseball, at the bottom of the standings is a surprise. What's more concerning is that, as the Mets fall further and further behind the rest of the pack in the National League, the thought of becoming aggressive sellers at the deadline becomes a reality.

The last time the Mets were in this position was 2023. That worked out well for them at the deadline when they traded away veterans like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Eduardo Escobar, and Mark Canha for a haul of prospects that included Drew Gilbert, Luisangel Acuña, and Ryan Clifford. Clifford remains the only player still on the Mets roster, but overall, a nice haul of prospects for a team that finished well outside the postseason picture.

In the Steve Cohen era, the Mets have been buyers in July. 2021, 2022, 2024, and 2025 saw the Mets trade prospects in exchange for proven veterans. The most notable trade was Pete Crow Armstrong for Javy Baez, in a year the Mets finished with 85 losses anyway. If the first month of the season is any indication for the rest of the year, it seems very likely the Mets will be sellers at the deadline. How aggressive they'll be remains to be seen.

Let's take a closer look at the roster and see what the Mets could expect to receive for some of their most valuable trade assets. 

SP Freddy Peralta:

Two months ago, we were talking about signing Peralta to an extension to keep him a Met for years to come. Now, he's the most valuable trade piece on the Mets roster. With his current contract set to expire at the end of 2026, Peralta will be one of the most highly coveted rental pitchers by July. If the Mets do move on from him, can they expect a return as good as the one they gave Milwaukee in January for him? That exchange was for Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat, two top-100 prospects. The short answer is likely a no. The odds of the Mets getting that kind of haul for a two-month rental are low.

Still, though, pitching is the most sought-after asset from buyers at the deadline, and the Mets could still get a decent return for Peralta. Maybe one top-100 prospect and a couple of mid-level guys or Low-A prospects younger than 20. 

RP Luke Weaver:

He's still under contract through 2027, owed $12 million next season. But Luke Weaver has been the Mets' best reliever in an otherwise abysmal month. As baseball evolves, relievers, not just closers, are something that buyers are willing to give up more to acquire. Weaver has playoff experience with the Yankees, can slot into a team's bullpen lineup as a setup man or even a closer if needed, and if the Mets are willing to take on a good chunk of his contract, they might receive a nice package of prospects in return. 

SP Clay Holmes:

Perhaps the Mets' best starting pitcher, even over Nolan McLean. Holmes carries a 2.10 ERA in April. He's been the Mets' most consistent pitcher this season, and turned in a solid performance last year, too. If the Mets fall too far back from playoff contention, don't be surprised to see Peralta and Holmes on the move. 

A silver lining to all this is that with those two top pitchers gone, it really opens the door to see what Jonah Tong and Jack Wenninger can do at the MLB level. For Tong, it'll be a far less pressure-packed situation than what he was dropped into last September.

Those are the first three players that I can see the Mets getting real value for without a lot of complexities in eating contract money. 

If the Mets really want to blow it up, even more than they did to their core this past winter, you could make the argument that every player not named Juan Soto or Nolan McLean might be on the trade block. Marcus Semien and Jorge Polanco, two names the Mets picked up in the offseason, would be tough to trade without eating a lot of money or getting a thin package of prospects in return.

Names like Brett Baty and Mark Vientos could come up if teams are willing to take a flyer on them. Neither of them has done themselves or the Mets any favors in April in upping their trade value.

July is a long way off, six teams make the playoffs now, if the Mets turn things around and get back into the hunt, this all becomes moot. If not, then the Mets will be one of the most intriguing deadline teams, but for all the wrong reasons.